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| FLEMINGTON : AUSTRALIAN CUP - 12th MARCH 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Weather is looking fine heading into the weekend. Expect a track that is a genuine dead, but firms up with some improvement with showers not forecast till late on Saturday arvo. Rail goes out to the 3M position here, after being TRUE last 2 meetings. The inside going hasn’t been the best in some of the more recent meetings, so that should take out some of the worse ground. Often though, over the last year when Flem is rain affected it is tending towards the runners on down the middle of the track. If the rain comes they might be winning down the middle of the track. If it stays dry the racing should be pretty even. Down the straight they are normally winning middle of track or wider at the moment. Pretty good day’s racing, obviously the Newmarket is one of the most anticipated races for a long time. Looks a clear cut couple of chances in most races, and you would think most of the shorter favourites are going to go pretty close here and there might not be much value in the multiples in a few races. Plenty to bet on though, so let’s double up to $100 this week. RESULTS : Even racing, a fantastic day to be at the races. The buzz around BLACK CAVIAR is astounding, if you get the chance to see her race - do it. Betting portoflio bombs out - wasn't far off the money though, but the tips go along OK. BEST WIN : Race 3: 1-MASTHEAD $15 WIN X There is a smart one down from Sydney, the (3) who is going to start short priced favourite here, but he has to travel, go in the other direction and go out to the 1400M for the 1st time, and although he probably go close he is no good thing. The (1) was by far the best run outside the winner in the Blue Diamond when he dropped back from an outside barrier. Plus with him is that he has drawn OK today and can race handy – and there doesn’t seem to be much speed here and it’s always a big plus over the Flem 1400M. The $4 or so looks OK value with the interstate visitor inflating the odds. RESULTS : Short priced favourite SCR at the barrier, really should have set it up for this one. Race was dominated by leader, but still very disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 11-CEDARBERG $10 EW X QUINELLA : Race 7: 11-CEDARBERG #3,5,8,15 x $2.50 = $10 X We are pushing for a roughie in the Australian Cup. Fit, on pacer, a lot of these haven’t shown form yet this Autumn and a lot will drop back here. Expect he is going to box seat and be in this race for a long way – probably even kick clear sometime in the straight – just a matter if he gets run down or not. Still worth a solid each way bet at around $20. Lots of value in the quinella, take the 1st two home from the St George and the ones with the new form lines – rather than guessing on improvement from some of the more well credentialed runners. Stack of value here if this is a trick race and we have read it correctly. RESULTS : Tear away leader turns it into a tough slog and suits those running on - not the way we expected the race to be run. Even effort - and CEDARBERG goes on to win the BMW at long odds the next start in Sydney, racing on the pace and clicking clear. BEST EACH WAY: 2-SISTINE ANGEL $10 EW X Talented filly who needs a big track, solid speed and for them to be running on and think she is going to get things to suit today. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the run over the 1400M and really like the way she flattened out and chased hard last start – suggests she is ready to win. Absolute stack of pace here and you think that is going to set it up for something running on. Remember she beat the (1), who is going to start favourite in this, last time they met here in a similar race, and that one is 1st up today and the (2) has race fitness on her side. Strong chance and the $11 on offer at the moment looks good. BEST PLACE : Race 6: 9-RESPONSE $3 WIN, $12 PLACE 4th W=$30.80, P=$$4.20 This one was incredibly unlucky last start in the Oakleigh Plate – simply should have won. Did not get clear at any stage down the straight, tried for a few different gaps and went to the line hard held beaten < 3L. She showed a stack of potential during the spring, and was unlucky not to win a few more races, and was close up in a Group 2 sprint down the straight on Derby Day. Of course she has to beat the (1) which is unlikely, but she is clearly the best of the rest, and looks incredibly well weighted here with only 52kgs. Load up on the place and maybe take First Fours with the (1) to win and the (9) to run a place somewhere. RESULTS : Seems to struggle to keep up early, but comes home very well to run 4th. Of course, goes on to win next start in Adelaide.... BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 10-STOLE $5 EW 4th W=$41.10 Bit of a funny race in a Group 3, most really aren’t up to the class and a few are a bit of a query over the 1600M here. This one is fitter for the 3 runs in and her form is just as good as the others coming through the weaker races. Chased hard last start and has a good 1600M record. Worth something at the $21 or better – suspect she will start a lot longer on the tote as is a bit of a no namer. Rough. RESULTS : Darn it - not far off here - coming home hard down the middle of the track and beaten less than a length into 4th place at very nice odds. QUINELLA : Race 1: 3-METONYMY, 8-ERVBEFEL x $5 2nd 3-METONYMY W=$3.90 The (3) finished on really nicely in the Blue Diamond and should sit on a slow speed in this, the (8) did a few things wrong last start and was SCR last week from a lesser race for this which is a very positive sign. But mainly we just wanted to take this quinella – cause it is a total bastard to spell or to say out loud. Say it out loud – it just sounds like utter and total nonsense ! RESULTS : Of course, we take the quinella on the top two picks, and the 3rd pick gets up at nice odds. Such is the punt. 8-ERVBEFEL was hopelessy unlucky here, inside barrier and dragged back on the fence and didn't get out till late. Follow. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 9 : 8-UNDENIABLY at around $2.50 7th W=$2.20 Has been racing very well in much harder races and at first glance looks really well in this race, 53.5 kgs, on pacer over the Flem 1400M. Will go forward here and unlikely to get his own way in front – the (2), the (9) and the (12) might take him on. 1400M is probably as far as he wants – he does have an easy 1400M win to his name, but it was in a 5 horse field in Adel. But mainly want to take him on cause think he might have a touch of the WE’RE GONNA ROCK’s about him (actually he probably has more ability than his stable mate), but more suspect he is going to open up on the tote at $2.00 or so and start way, way unders. Obviously a chance, just suspect really poor odds and way under his real price. RESULTS : Looms half way down the straight, but stops on his run. Has a stack of ability - but way, way under the odds and a tidy lay at the short price. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 1 / 9 / 5,6,7,12 / 5,6,7,12 x $2.50 = 20.83% 1st 1-BLACK CAVIAR W=$1.20/ - / 3rd 6-BEADED W=$17.00 / X FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 1 / 5,6,7,12 / 9 / 5,6,7,12 x $2.50 = 20.83% Let’s follow our own advice and take some first fours with the favourite the (1) to win, and the (9) anchored to fill a placing. These first fours can still pay OK in these races if something sneaks into 4th at silly odds and if you anchor a place getter you can get it for a high percentage for a minimal cost. RESULTS : Of course we take the 9-RESPONSE for 2nd and 3rd - and it finishes 4th. Nice effort. SPENT : $100 RETUN : $0 NET : $-100 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-METONYMY, 8-ERVBEFEL, 4-TRIPLE ASSET Race 2: 1-BIGELOW, 3-PANIPIQUE, 10-LIKE A GUEST Race 3: 1-MASTHEAD, 3-HELMET, 2-DELAGO’S LAD Race 4: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 5-DAO DAO, 8-SPACECRAFT Race 5: 2-SISTINE ANGEL, 9-AIN’TNOFALLENSTAR, 17-IRIDESCENTE (emerg), 16-FRENETICA Race 6: 1-BLACK CAVIAR, 9-RESPONSE, 6-BEADED Race 7: 11-CEDARBERG, 15-PLAYING GOD, 3-HEART OF DREAMS Race 8: 2-LADY LYNETTE, 10-STOLE, 1-CULMINATE Race 9: 11-NIBLICK, 3-ORBIT EXPRESS, 7-OFFENDERS |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-METONYMY 2nd W=$3.90 8-ERVBEFEL 4-TRIPLE ASSET 1st W=$12.60 Quinella : $23.10 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BIGELOW SCR 3-PANIPIQUE 1st W=$4.20 10-LIKE A GUEST |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MASTHEAD 3-HELMET SCR 2-DELAGO’S LAD |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$1.60 5-DAO DAO 2nd W=$5.90 8-SPACECRAFT Quinella : $2.50 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-SISTINE ANGEL 9-AIN’TNOFALLENSTAR 17-IRIDESCENTE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.20 9-RESPONSE 6-BEADED 3rd W=$17.00 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-CEDARBERG 15-PLAYING GOD 3rd W=$5.30 3-HEART OF DREAMS |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-LADY LYNETTE 10-STOLE 1-CULMINATE |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-NIBLICK SCR 3-ORBIT EXPRESS 1st W=$13.10 7-OFFENDERS |
| RACE 6: NEWMARKET HANDICAP GROUP 1 1200M |
| Tips: 1-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.20 9-RESPONSE 6-BEADED 3rd W=$17.00 |
| Others:12, 2,7 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 1-BLACK CAVIAR, 2-HAY LIST Handy : 4-GRAND DUELS, 11-CRYSTAL LILY Back : 3-EAGLE FALLS, 6-BEADED, 7-CHASM , 8-KING PULSE, 9-RESPONSE, 10-SNAPPARAZI Chances: 1-BLACK CAVIAR is the star of racing in Australia at the moment, and is aiming for a perfect 10 out of 10 record today. Absolutely slaughtered a decent field 1st up here in the Lightning Stakes when she was eased down in a canter on the line. No one has got close to her for a while now. Worth noting that the closest any horse has got to her was in the Danehill here in Sep 2009 – over the Flem 1200M, margin was only ¾ L and she was stopping on the line – but she had hurt herself jumping away and the 2nd horse ended up being a Group 1 winner. Easily accounted for them over the Flem 1200M here on Stakes Day. She has been expertly placed – kept to same sex set weight races, or to WFA races and she is just simply too good for them under those conditions. Winning 9 from 9 is an amazing feat, but also shows how well placed she has been. To be a truly outstanding champion sprinter though she is going to have to move out of her comfort zone, and take on some challenges and win against the odds. She will have to lose eventually, they all do, it will come in a handicap with a big weight, or being tried over further distances, or on a wet track or the reverse way of going. Today is going to be one of those challenges, carrying 58 kgs, having to give weight to a decent field of in form sprinters. Drawn middle of the track should be a plus as they are coming out middle or wider in the straight races these days. Based on form, and the way she has been winning she should still win, but do realise, this is a totally different challenge. Really want to see her come out and win out of her comfort zone – but suspect she is finally going to be challenged today and will have to pull out something special. Which she may well do. One to beat. 1st W=$1.20 6-BEADED is an under rated sprinter who is being sparingly raced and maintains an excellent win/place strike rate. Placed 7/8 over the 1200M, only start down the straight has gone close on a bog track in the Salinger on Derby Day. 1st up win was super impressive, drew a rank outside barrier, the on pacers were winning that day, came with a powerful run carrying weight down the middle of the track. That form has held up strongly too , with VARENNNA MISS running a huge race in the Oakleigh Plate. Looks incredibly well weighted here with 52.5kgs. Fit, in winning form, proven down the straight, no weight, think she represents a genuine danger to the favourite here. Chance. 3rd W=$17.00 9-RESPONSE is a lightly raced mare who stepped up to the mark last spring with some slashing runs, in particular her dashing win in the Rupert Clarke. She was one of the most unluckiest runners we have seen in a long, long time 1st up in the Oakleigh Plate, held up pretty much the entire length of the straight on the inside, tried a few times for different runs, but eventually want to the line well held. Only beaten 2.7L and almost certainly would have won if she got clear. Looks very attractively weighted in this with 52kgs, meets the (3) 1kgs better off, but the (12) on equal weights. Drawn out, can sit off the speed here and run on in the best part of the track. She was unlucky a few times during the spring and could have easily picked up another race or two. Solid performance at only start down the straight in the Salinger who not beaten far on unsuitable bog track. She has a bit of upside to her, she is showing a lot of potential, she is going to get a solid 6kgs off the top weight and think she is a genuine danger here. Strong chance. 4th W=$30.80 12-HINCHINBROOK is 3YO with some ability who has been transferred to a new stable and responded with a slashing 1st up run in the Oakleigh Plate when he missed the start slightly and was finishing on with much gusto. Fit, in form, no weight, 3YO, so worth of some respect in this. His strong finish last start would make you think he will be suited down the straight. He was closest to the fence last start which was the best ground and did get a perfect cart into the race with a strong pace, but still a solid effort. Drops 3kgs from last run, as do most of his rivals, but does meet the (3) slightly better on weights. He is probably the X factor in this – same stable as the favourite and you know there is always the possibility the stable mate can come out and spoil the party. Probably going to get some support. Chance. Place: 2-HAY LIST looked like being the next big racing super star during early Spring, but then the (1) stepped up and showed she was even bigger and better and faster. So there. Trounced his rivals in early spring last year, including a win down the straight 1200M here. Definitely wasn’t at best here on Stakes Day when disappointing. 1st up in the Lightning Stakes returned to some form, he was putting it up to the (1) most of the way down the straight, but was struggling as soon as she went for home. 2nd up and up 200M and probably will have some improvement out of that run. On the negative side into a handicap so has to give weight to plenty of fit, in form horses. Just drawn towards the inside is a slight worry as the ground out wider is likely to be better. Have to admit we thought early on last spring that he would be stronger over the Flem 1200M than the (1), suspect he is capable of going further and the extra distance today will probably narrow the margin. Nicely weighted into this. Obviously he won’t be far away, but hard to see him getting close enough to the (1) from last start – though the weight turn around is a tidy 3.5 kgs it was a 3L eased down defeat. Prefer place. SCRATCHED 5-STAR WITNESS is a class Group1 sprinter who has had the misfortune to be around at the same time as some simply outstanding sprinters. Placed 3 from 3 at Flem, and both times down the straight 1200M. Strong finisher who looks well suited to this course. Flopped 1st up when they were intending to send him to the Guineas, but plenty of excuses 1st up, with 59kgs, over 1300M and in the worse part of the track. Dropped back to stick to the sprints, but was SCR from the Oakleigh Plate due to an elevated temperature on the morning of the race. Was easily beaten 4L here by the (1) on Stakes Day at WFA – when he was at the peak of his form – and can’t be sure how he is going at the moment. He was getting 3kgs from her that day – today he is going to be getting 5kgs which doesn’t look like enough to turn around the margin. Drawn inside and will drop back so may end up in the worse going here. Coming off a under whelming 1st up run, and a scratching , just think you would want some assurance that he is back to form before backing with any confidence. Place at best. 7-CHASM is a honest performer who makes a habit of running on, but often finding one better. He seems to have latched onto the switching between Flem 1200M straight runs and feature miles caper and he is going along OK at it. Placed 3 from 4 down the Flem 1200M and his 1st up form is OK. Wasn’t far off in the Salinger and the Gilgai down the straight. If they stack the pressure on up front, he is going to be finishing on pretty well. Probably worth a rough place chance, but it will be a well beaten 3rd or 4th at odds. Rough place. Sacking: 3-EAGLE FALLS is a quality sprinter who returned to form with a slashing from behind win in the Oakleigh Plate when the fast pace and firm track suited. Have to admit kinda forgot how good his form was – he was a bit ordinary during the Spring 2010, but look back before that and he was close up in Newmarkets, and Oakleigh Plates and winning Salingers. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in. Drawn outside probably suits, he can drop back sit off the speed here and come widest which will probably be the best ground. Slight concern is the genuine dead track – he does seem to be a genuine on top of the ground horse. Does meet his rivals from last start, the (9) and the (12) slightly worse off at weights. Just feel that those two runners have more improvement in them though, he got everything set up for him last start and they were unlucky and probably just prefer the others coming out of the Oakleigh Plate at this stage. No. 4-GRAND DUELS is a solid straight track sprinter who seems to be racing in career best form. Strung together 3 wins in a row over summer, and best form has always been down the straight. Funny thing is he just seems to struggle over 1200M down the straight – just seems to find him out. Definitely best on top of the ground too and he is one where even a little bit of rain can be an issue. Back to handicap conditions suit here – he is definitely not a WFA horse, and he was coming home OK at the end of the Lightning. Just think a Group 1 1200M down the straight is just a bit out of his league. Passing. 8-KING PULSE is a lightly raced one who showed a bit of potential in feature straight race sprints before copping the worse of the Newmarket Ice Storm and needing a year off. Obviously sustained serious injuries and has been taken along very slowly. Seemed a bit reluctant to get back into the racing way of life last start and run was only fair. Will need this run at least to get back to best. More perplexing question is how come “King Pulse” is allowed to run in colours that is obviously the “Pulse Pharmacy” logo ? Didn’t think corporate logos were allowed on jockey silks? Maybe the rules have changed. Oh – no chance by the way. 10-SNAPPARAZI won a pretty moderate race here on Cup Day at long odds down the straight. Lightly raced, showing some ability, and 1st up run was good under lights when ran on well. 2nd up and up 200M. Going into a red hot Group 1 1200M sprint ? No way. Going to start a solid 200-1 or better with the bookies – and for good reason. For a bit of fun just see if you can get your $5 on at 1000-1 on BETFAIR. That’s the Turf Deli homework for a week. Way out of his class. No 11-CRYSTAL LILY is the former star 2YO who had a brief spring when the bubble did burst a little. Been given a long, solid break, but failed to show much 1st up down the straight in the Lightning. Stable have said they are going to let her run her own race today – which means going forward and not worrying about the (1). Just pretend she is not there. Wish the TAB would pay out as if she wasn’t running. They seem to think that the favourite is getting her own way early because everyone is too scared of her – but TRUE PERSUASION did take her on in the Schweppes at MV last year, and that didn’t work. Nice light weight as a 3YO in an open class sprint and always need to watch out for those. But just can’t be sure of how she is going, sure she is getting 8kgs off the top weight, but she did nothing 1st up, is 2nd up and up 200M, appears to not go her best down the straight and is coming off a disappointing spring. Plus she is drawn inside – if she goes forward she gets caught closest to the fence which is unlikely to be the best ground. Prefer to risk. 2nd W=$39.00 Summary: One of the most anticipated races for a long time. Can 1-BLACK CAVIAR keep winning? She has been slaughtering them in the WFA races, but in a way that is a self fulfilling prophecy - her ability and the well deserved raps on her mean she scares away a lot of her opposition and those small field WFA sprint races rarely result in an upset and just seem to be easy pickings for quality sprinters. The real challenge comes when she gets out of her comfort zone, wet tracks, carrying weight in handicaps, reverse way of going, further distance. Winning 9 from 9 – and winning easily means she has astounding ability, but to be really a top line champion for the ages she needs to step out and win when the challenge is on. Today is one of those days – she is giving weight, in some cases substantial weight to a quality sprint field. Really want to see her challenged and see what is there, to have to win against the odds. Would have loved her to be up against a capacity 24 runner Newmarket field – drawn barrier 1 – and on track that was favouring the outside rail - that would have been a spectacle indeed. Probably not a huge amount of speed here, 1-BLACK CAVIAR, 2-HAY LIST going forward with 11-CRYSTAL LILY next in line. She probably isn’t going to get that much pressure up front, which should make this task a bit easier. The way she has been winning, she has been winning like she is a total and utter freak, so she should be able to give weight to this lot and still beat them. Might it get close? Almost certainly, so not sure would want to go plonking the house on the nose. Main dangers are those she is giving 6kgs and 8kgs too – those weighted on 52 kgs and below look very well in here. Main danger is definitely the 9-RESPONSE who was incredibly unlucky in the Oakleigh Plate, has no weight and showed last spring she has a fair amount of ability. 6-BEADED is fit, in form, no weight and proven class sprinter. The $30 to $40 odds on each of these too do look appealing as an interest bet. Maybe the best way to go is have an interest win bet on the (6), (9) at the long odds and try to snare a First Four with the favourite, revolving the 6,9 through the placings, who we strongly suspect are going to be in the finish. e.g. 1 / 6, 9 / 2,6,7,9,12 / 2,6,7,9,12 1 / 2,6,7,9,12 / 6,9 / 2,6,7,9,12 One to risk: 5-STAR WITNESS 7th W=$12.30 Roughie: 9-RESPONSE 4th W=$30.80 The Key: It’s a handicap – not WFA – so it’s a new challenge for the favourite. RESULTS : Astounding. Simply astounding. Even carrying weight, when she lets go, she quickly puts the race beyond doubt. For those of you who missed today at Flemington it was something a lot of people are going to talk about for a very long time. Before the race was like nothing we had seen on a race course before - the stands were jam packed with people wanting to watch. Then the crowd went silent - totally silent before they jumped - everyone was focussed on the race instead of yakking away. Never seen that before on a racecourse even before a Melbourne Cup. When she was let loose about the 300M there was an audible gasp from the crowd. It was quite surreal and really something to behold. |
| RACE 7: AUSTRALIAN CUP GROUP 1 2000M WFA |
| Tips: 11-CEDARBERG 15-PLAYING GOD 3rd W=$5.30 3-HEART OF DREAMS |
| Others: 8,5 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 6-GINGA DUDE, 11-CEDARBERG, 12-LORD PYRUS Handy : 2-SCENIC SHOT, 3-HEART OF DREAMS, 7-MOURAYAN Back : 1-SHOCKING, 4-C'EST LA GUERRE, 5-PRECEDENCE, 8-ALCOPOP, 9-MOUDRE, 10-LINTON, 13-MR CHARLIE, 14-LARISTAN, 15-PLAYING GOD Chances: 3-HEART OF DREAMS is a honest, on pace WFA performer who seems to have hit a purple patch of form. Just had a habit of always finding one better, but his two runs in this time have been excellent. He was unlucky not to win the C.F.Orr when he was driving hard and only just missed in the photo, and dashed to the lead and keep going for a impressive win in the St George. Track was strongly favouring on pacers that day though. Loomed up like the winner here in the Makybe Diva last spring before being swamped by the (1) late. He has a reputation of always finding one better, but hard to fault his form going into this. Big question mark here is the 2000M – even his trainer freely admits that. Ran 4th in this race last year, and wasn’t beaten that far, this field is about the same strength. Wouldn’t be surprised if they ride him forward again as that did seem to work pretty well last start. Actually think he has most of his rivals from the last 2 runs, the (1), (9),(10) covered based on form – he has beaten them by a margin. Just a matter of whether a new form line ends up being the better one. Will be in the finish, probably finds one better though. Chance. 5-PRECEDENCE is one of Bart’s who goes along OK and solid run 2nd up in the St George when he was the best of the runners on. Did stick hard to the inside though which was the best going. Does have a fair bit of ability, but can still do a few things wrong, and likely to be suited onto a big track here. Probably more of a handicapper than a WFA horse, so not really suited under these conditions. Will probably drop back and head to the middle of the track from an outside barrier and the speed here looks solid enough to allow them to run on. Bart definitely knows how to set them for these races so can’t be under rated, and again worth nothing he has beaten home the (1), (9) and (10) comfortably last start so think has to be rated ahead of them here. Solid chance. 8-ALCOPOP has a stack of ability and could be set for a rather big Autumn. Spring 2009 he burst onto the scene, but they had to focus on qualifying him for the Cups that year. Last spring they could take their time, and he looked primed to be a major player when he hit his peak with a fantastic run on 2nd in the Yalumba. Then he struck the unsuitable heavy track in the Caulfield Cup, the trainer reckon he ate several large and tasty mud cakes and his spring was pretty much over. Fitter for the 2 runs in, is still stepping up 400M here, but solid win carrying 59kgs in Kilmore Cup on a slow track which wouldn’t have suited. He has the ability to win this, drawn wide probably drops back and heads to the middle of the track. Firmer track will suit. Maybe would have just preferred one more run in, but he is a genuine winning chance. Go well. 11-CEDARBERG is vastly under rated in our books and one we are going to give a solid push for today. Tough on pace stayer who is lightly raced and he mixed it with the (5), (9) and the (10) in the Herbert Power, and was very competitive, even if he was getting weight from them. Fitter for the 3 runs in – and like that he is one run ahead of most of his rivals here and has had the run at 2000M+ this time in. Kicked to the lead a long way out in the Mornington Cup, and was unlucky to just be bobbed on the line. We think he is a solid chance here, a lot of the WFA horses are out of form, he will sit on the speed, put himself into the race, is fit and in form and still has some upside. It will be up to the back markers to come out and run him down – and really not sure how well most of them are going. A lot is going to depend on how much pressure there is up front, but confident he is going to kick clear and look the winner at some stage in the straight. Strong each way chance. 15-PLAYING GOD is the 3YO in this field and is worthy of some respect. Looks a solid staying type, has won against open company over in WA with strong finishes over 1800M. Fitter for the 2 runs in, the run here last week was better than it looked – he was held up for runs half way down the straight and showed some gusto when got clear, but seemed to be dying on run towards the end of the race. Jockey declared it was not his best ride. Looks like he wants the big track, and clear run home down the middle of the track with plenty of room. He obviously has a bit of ability, the 2000M here as a 3YO at WFA with the weight advantage looks ideal and just like the way he stretched out last week when putting himself into the finish. Solid chance. 3rd W=$5.30 Place: 1-SHOCKING is a top class stayer who had a pretty good spring and looked primed to be a major factor in the Melbourne Cup – and then all this young blood appeared from nowhere, he was quickly forgotten, drifted like nothing – and ran accordingly. Holds a unique record of being scratched TWICE from this race last year when the race got postponed for a week. Fitter for the 2 runs in, he has done the standard run on OK trick which is all you can expect of these types. Trouble is it is just too hard to tell how they are really going. Definitely a lot better back to Flem. Probably would want a solid tempo here – and the speed does look OK for once in a WFA race, and for the runners on to be figuring. He will run on and be thereabouts, can’t really push him with any confidence though as you are betting on improvement and although this is more suitable he has been well beaten in his two runs this time in. Prefer place. 1st W=$8.40 14-LARISTAN is an import who spoilt the party as the outsider in a 5 horse field here last week. Bloody party pooper. Only had the 3 Australian starts and good chance he is going to keep improving so represents a bit of an unknown quantity in this. Was only carrying the limit last start though in a handicap and up to WFA here, so meets the (7) a whopping 6kgs worse off – and we don’t give that one much of a shot here. Was a solid staying effort though and might keep on improving – just hard to get enthused about the winner of a 5 horse field. Rough place chance with improvement, and just because most of these aren’t going all that well. Place. Sacking: 2-SCENIC SHOT is under rated and has put in some huge runs in feature races – for some reason he seems to grow an extra leg (no, not that sort of leg, he is a gelding) over the Flem 2000M. His Flem 2000M form is outstanding – 2nd in the 2007 Turnbull at a whopping 100-1, 5th in the 2009 Australian Cup, 3rd in the 2009 Turnbull, 1st in the 2009 Mackinnon, he just seems to run his best races over the Flem 2000M for some reason. He has had a long lay off and he slowly returning to racing. Should be fitter for the 4 runs in and the plus he has here is that he has had the 4 runs in and the 2000M run this time in which many of his rivals have not. However, he has been struggling though to recover his best form, carried 60kgs last start so can probably forgive that run but didn’t show much in runs before that. Wait till he shows form again. No 4th W=$33.60 4-C'EST LA GUERRE is still going around so have to give him points for persistence. Been around forever, rarely genuinely puts himself into a finish, tends to loom up and stop for a well beaten 4th, 5th of 6th and just never shown his best in Australia. Interesting to note that his only Australian win has been the Sydney was of going. No. 6-GINGA DUDE is a honest on pacer NZ visitor who was very impressive in winning the Coogny on a bog track last spring and accounted himself well in the Mackinnon, before failing to run out the 2400M in the Sandown Classic. Just as good on top of the ground, but maybe would just prefer some give in the ground at this level. Didn’t really have much of a break, still racing on Boxing Day, given another freshen and went pretty well in the St George and should have a fair bit of improvement to come. He got stuck at the airport on the way over, and tarmac isn’t the best for grazing. Looks the leader here, but there are a few who might put pressure on. Placed 7/10 at 2000M. A lot will depend on how the track is racing, if the on pacers are sticking on then he is probably some rough chance, if they are winning down the middle of the track (which is likely), then would probably go around him leading from barrier (1). Just mindful he probably needs to be at the top of his game at 2000M WFA Group1 and prefer to see him go around today. Passing. 7-MOURAYAN is a bit of an up and down stayer of the Williams stable who can be a little hard to follow. Struggled for form early last spring, then put in a great run in the Metropolitan in Sydney. Has a funny habit of sometimes taking off mid race and there is a good chance he will sit handy and roll forward at some stage and put the pressure on. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but hard to read form from the 5 horse race last week and you would think he is going struggle at this level at WFA. No 9-MOUDRE really needs to lift his game – we actually thought he would step up this Autumn and be a major WFA contender. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but they have been identical, drop well back and do the bare minimum run on races. The problem with those runs is you just can’t tell how they are really going, and you are betting on them improving, where there is just as big a chance that they will do the same thing again. Should improve out to the 2000M and back to Flem, where he has won 3 from 4, but think he really needs to improve. Has yet to prove himself at WFA, hard to see him improving enough to turn around the margin on the first 2 home from last start and quite happy to take him on today. No. 10-LINTON hasn’t been doing much better than his arch rival the (9). His two runs in have been barely passes – he really needs to lift his game else there is a note going home to his parents. Always showed a stack of potential and probably didn’t quite live up to the expectations in the spring. He was thereabouts in all his races, but wasn’t dominant and didn’t quite fly as high as expected. Really hasn’t been much between the (9) and this one every time they have met, but in the races where it counts he has beaten the (9) home both times. Blinkers go on 1st time which could make a big difference. Another who has been doing the bare minimum to keep us interested, 3rd up and out to the 2000M should suit, but just don’t want to go betting on possible improvement and just can’t see him beating home the 1st two from the St George. Happy to risk. 2nd W=$9.10 12-LORD PYRUS is a on pacer with some ability, who finally put together a quality win when burnt to the front from outside barrier 2 starts back at Caulfield. Camped on the speed and really had every chance last start in the St George – so does look to have a task ahead of him here. Still a strong possibility he is just a 1400M horse, the 2000M today at this level really does look an ask. No 13-MR CHARLIE is a solid staying type who showed some ability at the start of last spring and wasn’t far away in the better staying handicaps. 1st up over 2000M is a big ask and good chance the might prefer it wet. Better suited at handicaps than WFA. No Summary: We have always had this theory that the Australian Cup is a winnable race if you have a solid, fit, in form, handicap stayer, and so a big thank you to the connections of 11-CEDARBERG for putting our theory to the test this year. It just seems the Australian Cup comes up a little early in horse’s campaigns, they have normally only had 1-2 runs in, often not found form yet and so perhaps something with race fitness can cause a bit of a boilover. Looking back through the race’s history it is definitely the St George that is the stand out form line. So obviously the 3-HEART OF DREAMS and the 5-PRECEDENCE have to go in as strong chances. Sure there will be plenty ready to back 1-SHOCKING, 9-MOUDRE, 10-LINTON, but just can’t have them today. Especially at the odds on offer – around $8 or so. All three have done the bare minimum in their two runs this time in, they have to improve significantly to turn around significant margins on the (3) and the (5), and whilst there is a good chance one of them will step up and show what they are capable of, there is probably an even better chance one or more will do the same thing again, run on for a well beaten 7th or 8th, and have their autumn campaign axed. So that leaves us with the (3) and the (5), and although the (3) is racing in career best form he has to be a bit of a query over the 2000M Which just really leaves the (5) who has some chance, but think it’s best to go looking for some new form lines. Pace here should be genuine, probably 6-GINGA DUDE, 12-LORD PYRUS setting the speed with 3-HEART OF DREAMS, 11-CEDARBERG sitting just off them. We are going to push for one here at odds – the 11-CEDARBERG, he mixed it with the best stayers during the spring and was competitive. He has a fitness edge on some of these coming into this race, can camp right on the speed and make his own luck and expect he will kick to the lead sometime in the straight and prove hard to run down. Just think he might expose some of these with question marks over the distance or how well they are going. Definite chance to the 15-PLAYING GOD, who looks on the up, looks a staying type and again represents the new form line. The best of those coming through the St George is definitely 3-HEART OF DREAMS, who really should have those coming through that race covered – just a matter of whether he can run out the 2000M but he should be in the finish regardless. Actually quite keen to have something each way at long odds on 11-CEDARBERG at around the $20 looks a solid bet. One to risk: 9-MOUDRE 9th W=$11.10, 10-LINTON 2nd W=$9.10 Roughie: 11-CEDARBERG The Key: How well are some of these going? RESULTS : 1-SHOCKING sure does love Flemington. Suited when Williams runner 7-MOURAYAN does his standard mid race trick of taking off and running to a clear lead. Solid tempo set it up for those running on. 10-LINTON goes well - just keeps finding one better. 9-MOUDRE has had a very disappointing Autumn campaign and can't believe people were still pushing it off 3 pretty ordinary runs. And we tipped 11-CEDARBERG one start too early - wins the BMW in Sydney next start at juicy odds. |
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