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MOONEE VALLEY: BILL STUTT STAKES - 28th Sept 2012
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 3M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Fine drying weather early in the week, but it is supposed to turn on Friday to heavy rain and showers and it is a bit hard to judge exactly how much rain we are going to have had by the time this meeting kicks off.

MV night meetings can often be on pace dominated, especially if the rail is out – although the rail is only out 3M tonight. Rail was TRUE for last meeting here 2 weeks ago which was a typical MV swoopers track when the rail is in that position. Interesting to note that it looks like being a very similar night to this meeting last year – torrential rain and last year most of the winners led all the way. We keep a history of all track racing patterns on the website under the Race Menu / Horses To Follow – it is a very handy resource. Good chance you will want to be on the on pacers tonight. Track is currently a GOOD(3) Thursday night but assuming a genuine dead to slow track by the time the races kick off.

We were going to do the form for the Bill Stutt Stakes, but that looks a little dull with Sydney super star 1-PIERRO going around, so we will do the main form for the Moir Stakes instead. Have to admit normally if there was a highly spruiked Sydney horse coming down to Melbourne for the first time, 2nd up and up 1200M into a 1600M race, at incredibly short odds, onto a wet track around a MV night meeting we would probably want to take him on – but 1-PIERRO seems to be the real deal, and just barely seems to be a 3YO C+G in Melbourne with any sort of form this spring.

RESULTS: Most of the rain stays away and track tends to race pretty fairly. Most of the on pacers win, but they are normally the best horse in the race. Swag of short priced favourites which is so often the case at Moonee Valley. Found most of the winners in the tips, which wasn't hard, but the long shot winner of the first race was a nice way to start the night. Still with 6 winners we could only find the 1 quinella which was disappointing.

BEST BET: Race 3: 7-TOKUGAWA $10 WIN 1st W=$2.50 = 2.5 x 10 = $25
Doesn’t seem to be much depth in this field and probably only the two chances the (3) who will lead, but doesn’t handle wet tracks and the (7). This one seems to be one on the up, lightly raced and cruised to a win 1st up, then just wobbled around the turn slightly when chased hard 2nd up. Set a massive task up to the 1600M and WFA last start and stuck on OK on the inside. Probably just wants to trail through on the rails here and not give the leader too much of a head start on what could be a leaders track. Has a heap of potential – just probably want around $3.00, suspect he is going to start a lot shorter. Should win.
RESULTS: Tracks through perfectly just before the turn and never looks in doubt. Safe quinella with the only other chance the 3-SPACECRAFT pays $3.70

BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 8-OFF AND LAUGHING $5 WIN X
QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-OFF AND LAUGHING # 2,6,10,11 x $2.50 = $10 X
Fitter for the 2 runs in, drawn inside barrier and can go forward here and that is probably where you want to be tonight. Meets the (2) slightly better at the weights and keeps a good place strike rate – a no fuss sort of horse, she will go forward and make her own luck. Each way at $9 looks pretty good actually – this is a fairly even betting race so instead of backing the place let’s hunt for some more value in the quinellas which will probably pay around $20. Keen each way.
RESULTS: Just a little slow out means she is at the back of the field rather than being on speed. Always going to be an ask from there, comes out and runs on OK, but not her normal racing pattern. Forgive.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-PLATELET $5 EW X
QUINELLA : Race 6: 8-PLATELET, 2-BUFFERING x $4 X / 1st 2-BUFFERING W=$1.80
This mare is a marvel, she just keeps finding her way into finishes – and still only missed the place once in 14 starts –and you can get $11 the win and $2.80 the place on her tonight which looks fantastic. We want some. Proven on wet tracks, racing really well, really liked the run here last start when she seemed to be ridden along to keep up over the 1000M and worked home really well. Up in class is the test, but she is going to track the two favourites the (2) and the (6) here and might just come around them and over the top of them. Back each way – and go the quinella with the favourite and leader.
RESULTS: Of course, the one race we back her in is the time she actually misses the place !. Just ended up one back further than she should have been, wasn't beaten far, but just needed to be that touch closer on the turn.

BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 9-SABRAGE $3 EW X
Last race of the night is one of the few with a bit of depth and think this one is a chance at odds. Fitter for the 2 runs in and was an eye catching run back in the field last start when was making good ground but racing a little erratically. Just needs the sting out of the ground which he is going to get, maybe not too wet though. Speed is on here and wants to track along the fence from inside barrier. Worth something each way at $17.
RESULTS: Strangely ends up going to the lead and kicks on OK, but much better ridden back with a flying finish. Give another chance.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8: 1-PRECEDENCE at around $5 10th W=$5.40
We actually backed this one last start and he has come back pretty well and that was a good win wide all the way. Won this race 2 years ago. But tonight? Carrying topweight here and giving 4kgs to more than half this field, most of whom have a bit of ability so you would just think something will come out and step up tonight. Does like to drop back and these night meetings normally favour on pacers, and he does seem to be a top of the ground horse. Plenty of others to back in this tonight so happy to go around him.
RESULTS: Summed this up pretty well, starts 2nd favourite and well in the market, but just gets too far back in a field where there was a fair bit of form. Safe lay.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
DAILY DOUBLE: Races 6,8 : 8-PLATELET / 5,6,8,9,11 x $1 = $5 X / 2nd 5-DANCE WITH HER W=$10.00
Should be plenty of value in the Daily Double if we can get our top pick up at $11 in the main race. Especially with the 2nd leg being pretty open, so if the favourite does not win the last you will be looking at a $100 plus collect. That’s if the first leg wins of course – one step at a time ! Go 8-PLATELET Go
RESULTS: Bomb out in the first leg and didn't find the $20 winner in the wide open 2nd leg.

RESULT: RETURN
SPENT: $50
RETURN: $25
NET: $-25


The Tips:

Race 1: 7-DAYTONA GREY, 4-CLINTON AFFAIR, 3-VELONSKI
Race 2: 8-OFF AND LAUGHING, 11-SPOT ON MAGGIE, 10-BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL
Race 3: 7-TOKUGAWA, 3-SPACECRAFT, 10-NOHOAKS
Race 4: 1-SNIZTERLAND, 5-ELITE ELLE, 6-DINKUM DIAMOND
Race 5: 5-SNIZTEM, 7-UMEGTON, 3-BROKEN
Race 6: 8-PLATELET, 2-BUFFERING, 6-TIGER TEES
Race 7: 1-PIERRO, 2-JIMANDO, 4-ROAD TRIPPIN
Race 8: 9-SABRAGE, 6-EXCLUDED, 8-KING DIAMOND



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
7-DAYTONA GREY 1st W=$20.70 *** long shot winner on top ***
4-CLINTON AFFAIR
3-VELONSKI

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
8-OFF AND LAUGHING
11-SPOT ON MAGGIE
10-BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
7-TOKUGAWA 1st W=$2.50 *** Bet Bet of the Day ***
3-SPACECRAFT 2nd W=$3.70
10-NOHOAKS

Quinella: $3.70

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
1-SNIZTERLAND 1st W=$1.40
5-ELITE ELLE
6-DINKUM DIAMOND

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
5-SNIZTEM 1st W=$2.00
7-UMEGTON
3-BROKEN

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
8-PLATELET
2-BUFFERING 1st W=$1.80
6-TIGER TEES

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
1-PIERRO 1st W=$1.04
2-JIMANDO 3rd NTD
4-ROAD TRIPPIN

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
9-SABRAGE
6-EXCLUDED
8-KING DIAMOND



RACE 6: MOIR STAKES GROUP 2 1200M WFA
Tips:
8-PLATELET
2-BUFFERING 1st W=$1.80
6-TIGER TEES

Others: 3

Pace: PACE
Leaders : 2-BUFFERING, 6-TIGER TEES
Handy : 5-READY TO RIP, 8-PLATELET
Back : 1-GREEN BIRDIE, 3-ATOMIC FORCE, 4-THANKGODYOU'REHERE, 7-ELITE FALLS

Chances:
2-BUFFERING is probably just about the best sprinter in Australia at the moment, as long as those pesky trouble makers, HAY LIST and BLACK CAVIAR stay out of his way. Tough as guts, jump and run sprinter with excellent 1200M form. Handles it wet just fine. 1st up form is excellent – won the McEwen here 1st up last year when ridden aggressively to the lead. Goes forward here and looks the one to beat - doubly so if the track is wet and favouring on pacers. One to beat. 1st W=$1.80

3-ATOMIC FORCE is a very honest capable sprinter who looks well suited here. MV form isn’t the best – he does go well here, but just seems to get a little lost around the turn and run on just that wee bit too late. Handles all conditions. Ran on well here 2 starts back with a big weight, and just came that little bit too late in last year’s McEwen. Both of those races were over 1000M and he is better suited around the 1200M here giving him more time to wind up. Disappointing, and out of character run last start in Sydney but normally he is pretty reliable and happy to give him another chance here. Rough

6-TIGER TEES is a lightly raced Sydney sprinter with a smashing win strike rate and a bit of a buzz around him. Sure to get heavily backed tonight – especially with lots of Sydney money on a night with lots of well favoured short priced Sydney horses. Usually goes forward so likely to go forward here and sit outside the (2). Handles all conditions. Query is going to be MV night meeting, tight 1200M first time Melb way of going but certain to be very well backed. Is going to come down to how much pressure he puts on the (2) up front. Strong chance. 4th W=$3.70

8-PLATELET gets an A+++ for effort, she has been up for ages and just keeps on finding her way into finish after finish. Wet track no issue. Only missed the place once in 14 starts now. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in. Can race handy but probably just sits behind the 2 leaders here and will have the sit on them should they knock each other over. Actually, really she is going to get to perfect on pace trail here, she can hook around them around the turn and she probably deserves a nice Group race rather than an elephant stamp. She is much better suited at the 1200M here, she just seemed to be ridden along last start to keep up and really didn’t miss by much. Don’t underestimate her – she is right in this. Strong chance.

Place:
5-READY TO RIP has been racing very well through winter and has been given a freshen up going into spring. Nothing wrong with form last 3 starts and solid 1200M record. Needs a wet track which looks like he is going to get. The (2) probably crosses him here, so means he will be trapped inside horses, but guess it is only a small field. Rough chance 2nd W=$13.10

Sacking:
1-GREEN BIRDIE is an international sprinter who was really unlucky with his 1st up run at Caulfield in July when was finishing on strongly but had nowhere to go. Just even runs the 2 starts after that when he settled on speed and did look much better ridden back in the field here last start when wasn’t beaten that far. Likely to drop back here – and worry is the possibility of on pace wet track at MV. Bit of a query on wet ground. He hasn’t been that far away, but probably want to see him do a bit more before backing with any confidence. Risking.

4-THANKGODYOU'REHERE has a good fresh record and has had a trial to get him ready for this. Set for some major targets last preparation in major Group 1 sprints in big fields so this is a bit easier. Just a drop back horse, over MV 1200M, small field so unlikely to be much speed and just doesn’t look suited in this. No 3rd W=$17.10

7-ELITE FALLS didn’t really measure up to the really tough Group 1 sprints over winter, but Oakleigh Plate run was excellent when only just missed at long odds. This is WFA though so not getting any favours in the weights. Drop back type, small field , MV, just hard to see her giving some of these a start and running them down. No

Summary: Really going to be a race of tactics – and racing patterns. Need to keep an eye on how much rain falls, and if it is a dynamite leaders track which it can often be at MV night meetings.

Basically the 2-BUFFERING jumps to the lead here, 6-TIGER TEES sits outside him and 8-PLATELET slots in with cover behind them. No doubt 2-BUFFERING is the one to beat, will jump and run and in a small field unlikely to be much pressure up front. Especially if it’s a MV leaders track. But if the (6) puts the pressure on think you will want to be on the 8-PLATELET stalking these two. So actually happy to go each way on the 8-PLATELET here, but knowing our form she will probably miss the place that 1 time in 15 starts, 2-BUFFERING the obvious danger and take a quinella with these two and the obvious third pick the 6-TIGER TEES. Despite small fields still should be OK value in the quinella the (2) and (8) and just think the (8) is over the odds currently at $11.

One to risk: -
Roughie: 3-ATOMIC FORCE

The Key: MV, wet track, night meeting. Leaders.

RESULTS: The short priced favourite leads and kicks and pretty much end of story - pretty tough win after being slow away and having to do work early. 5-READY TO RIP unlucky not to win after struggling to get clear in the straight. 8-PLATELET misses the place, the one time we back her, but still a pretty honest effort.

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