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| CAULFIELD : BLUE DIAMOND STAKES - 26th February 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Fine weather heading into the weekend with just a few showers forecast for Sat which probably isn’t going to have much effect on the track. Rail goes OUT 3M here, last meeting 2 weeks ago it was TRUE and the track probably did just favour those running on pace – but they could still run on and win. Caulfield does have a tendency recently on major race days if it is hot and the track is firm to strongly favour those racing on speed – so maybe just keep an eye on the weather. If a few showers come should be pretty even racing, if it’s hot, the sun is out and the track is firming up towards GOOD wouldn’t be surprised to see the on pacers dominate. Great program to watch, not sure there is much value with smallish fields in a lot of races, lots of quality horses who put in bad runs 1st up, and lots of races with identical fields to lead up races – so clear cut favourites in most events. Be wary that in most races that there is a distinct lack of pace and especially if the track is favouring on pacers you will want to tend towards the on speed runners. RESULTS : Great days racing, but most of the short priced favourites got home so not much in the way of value. The track raced fairly evenly, but once again the track did seem to favour those running on the speed - they could run on if the pace was very fast though. Tips went along OK with a stack of quinellas and a small profit for the Betting Portfolio, which was close to the money in most races and unlucky not to collect more. BEST WIN : Race 5: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU $10 WIN 2nd W=$6.10 Have to admit we have been a knocker of this one in the past, but looking back his spring form is pretty much first rate – only beaten by SO YOU THINK most starts. Yet to miss a place 1st up, only missed the place once in 9 starts here and just looks OK value with the short priced Sydney visitor dominating the market. Note jockey change too and have to be honest and say think Oliver rides this one better and might position him closer than normal. Suspect he is going to give the short priced favourite a shake and worth a bet. RESULTS : Drops back to last again and comes with a very threatening run - but doesn't quite get there. Very talented horse but you are going to get beaten 9 times out 10 if you drop back to last in every run. You really have to wonder how many more races he would have won if he raced closer to the speed. Still think he was worth a bet - there isn't that much between him and the short priced favourite and he did seem over the odds on form. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT $8 WIN 2nd W=$7.70, P=$2.30 QUINELLA : Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT, 6-RED FLAIR x $3 2nd 9-SIMPLY PUT W=$7.70, 6-RED FLAIR 1st W=$5.90 QUINELLA = $17.70 = 17.70 x 3 = $53.10 QUINELLA : Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT, 10-PERFECT HOSTESS x $3 This one is going along really well and strikes a very winnable race here. Has race fitness – and more importantly form on most of these. Ran on extremely well last start behind some smart ones when was dropped back in distance. Up to the 1400M today suits a lot better. Probably wants some speed and wants them to be running on, but extremely keen today at around the $10. Should get $20 or so for the quinella too in a even field, so let’s do that instead of backing the place. Actually this is probably the one we are keenest on for the day, so make sure you leave something in the bank for the last race. RESULTS : Great ride by the jockey here when our bet has missed the start, but he rolls forward on him and has him up sitting 2nd - on a track that is favouring on pacers and against his normal racing pattern. Looms half way down the straight and looks a dead cert winner, but the one on the rails has come back and fought on. Still, saved with a nice quinella and that got us into the black for the day. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-MISS ELVEE $5 EW X You do have to wonder sometimes if betting markets are based on actual form, or it is just a popularity contest. Pretty much the entire field in this race went around in the same race at Caulfield on the 12th Feb. This one ran 2nd, but the winner isn’t going around here – so she beat home every single runner in this field last start. Same weights today – 1400M instead of 1200M, but there isn’t much speed, she can get a perfect sit on the pace and is pretty much guaranteed to be in the finish. She should be contesting favouritism – instead she is 7th in the market at round $11. If she was in the Lloyd Williams stable with the same form she would be clear cut short priced favourite. Ridiculous value based on the form. RESULTS : Drops to last and does nothing. BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 4-DELAGO'S LAD $3 EW X Always worth having a crack at something at odds in the Blue Diamond, and normally you want to get on the strong finishers. This one has been going extremely well, strong finishing type and can’t really knock form. Did get close to the short priced favourite at 1st start, was ridden forward that day and much better ridden from behind. Looks really good value at around the $31. RESULTS : Runs on OK on a track that is favouring on pacers, to finish around 6th. Was an OK effort - still think he is worth following. QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-VESPER, 5-DOWN UNDER BOY x $5 1st 8-VESPER W=$2.30, 3rd 5-DOWN UNDER BOY W=$5.90 Not much form or speed in the 2nd race and you would think the (8) should roll forward and win. The (5) is going really well though, chased very hard last start and last win was this track and distance. Trick to the (5) is getting a firm track – which should get today. Looks a nice quinella in a skinny race. RESULTS : Still can't believe we missed this quinella. As predicted 8-VESPER went to the lead and never looked like losing, 5-DOWN UNDER BOY was tracking into the race around the home turn and was going to run a clear 2nd about 100M out - we get to the line and suddenly it's 3rd. Bugger. LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 4 : 3-KIM DIVINE at around $3.60 6th W=$4.00 These 1800M 3YO races are always a bit of a trap, as so often something lightly raced can suddenly improve. This is one of Bart’s down from Sydney who has been up since Oct and although has been winning in Sydney doubt he has been beating much. Take on. RESULTS : Looms around the home turn, but never really threatens so no sweat on the lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA : Race 8: 12-LORD PYRUS #1,2,5(scr),8,9 x $1 = $5 X / 1st 2-HEART OF DREAMS W=$2.40 $1 back for scratching The other Group 1 race, the St George Stakes is tricky cause most of the field are coming off 1st up runs over unsuitable short distances. The favourite, the 2-HEART OF DREAMS looks the one to beat, but has a nasty habit of finding one better in these races. Not much speed at all, and you would think the 12-LORD PYRUS is going to lead easily here. Fit and in form, but 1800M and at WFA you think might just find one better, but should kick in the straight and look the winner at some stage. There are a stack of horses who might suddenly improve and come out and win, so safest thing to do is take quinellas with the 12 with the 1-SHOCKING, 2-HEART OF DREAMS, 5-TRUSTING (got a sneaky feeling he is going to do something today), 8-MOUDRE and 9-LINTON. RESULTS : Bit disppointed in the run of the 12-LORD PYRUS - doubt he is up to this class and maybe struggles with the 1800M SPENT : $50 RETURN : $54.10 NET : $+4.10 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 4-UTAH SAINTS, 3-ÉCLAIR MYSTIC, 1-STIRLING GROVE Race 2: 8-VESPER, 5-DOWN UNDER BOY, 7-PORT VELL Race 3: 4-MISS ELVEE, 2-ZELSNITZ, 8-BOOKLET Race 4: 1-ALMINDORO, 5-ELUSIVE KING, 4-MEAISIN Race 5: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 8-MORE JOYOUS, 5-DOUBTFUL JACK Race 6: 7-AVENUE, 6-STAR WITNESS, 2-FIRST COMMAND Race 7: 4-DELAGO'S LAD, 1-SEPOY, 14-HALLOWELL BELLE Race 8: 9-LINTON, 12-LORD PYRUS, 2-HEART OF DREAMS Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT, 6-RED FLAIR, 10-PERFECT HOSTESS |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-UTAH SAINTS 2nd W=$12.30 3-ÉCLAIR MYSTIC 1-STIRLING GROVE 1st W=$3.00 Quinella : $16.80 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-VESPER 1st W=$2.30 5-DOWN UNDER BOY 3rd W=$5.90 7-PORT VELL 2nd W=$6.70 Quinella : $5.90 Trifecta : $30.40 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-MISS ELVEE 2-ZELSNITZ 8-BOOKLET |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ALMINDORO 3rd W=$3.10 5-ELUSIVE KING 2nd W=$6.80 4-MEAISIN |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU 2nd W=$6.10 8-MORE JOYOUS 1st W=$1.50 5-DOUBTFUL JACK Quinella : $3.00 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-AVENUE 2nd W=$13.40 6-STAR WITNESS SCR 2-FIRST COMMAND |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-DELAGO'S LAD 1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.40 14-HALLOWELL BELLE 2nd W=$12.70 Quinella : $5.80 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-LINTON 12-LORD PYRUS 2-HEART OF DREAMS 1st W=$2.40 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-SIMPLY PUT 2nd W=$7.70 6-RED FLAIR 1st W=$5.90 10-PERFECT HOSTESS Quinella : $17.70 |
| RACE 6: OAKLEIGH PLATE GROUP 1 1100M |
| Tips: 7-AVENUE 2nd W=$13.40 6-STAR WITNESS SCR 2-FIRST COMMAND |
| Others: 16,8,11,1 Pace: VERY FAST Leaders : 7-AVENUE, 11-UNDENIABLY, 12-SOLAR CHARGED Handy : 1-CATAPULTED, 2-FIRST COMMAND, 4-REWARD FOR EFFORT (wide), 5-SHELLSCRAPE, 15-VARENNA MISS (wide), 16-FASTER SON Back : 3-EAGLE FALLS, 6-STAR WITNESS, 8-RESPONSE, 9-SET FOR FAME, 10-KEANO, 13-HINCHINBROOK, 14-CARDINAL VIRTUE, 17-GENERAL TRUCE, 18-PANIPIQUE Chances: 2-FIRST COMMAND has always shown a bit of potential and seems to have gone up another level with really good run in NZ feature. 5 wins from 6 starts here – doesn’t get much better than that. Was a little disappointing during spring, but did strike wet tracks a few times so maybe that is not his go. Still a bit of upside, dry track, favourite track. Can go forward, but you would maybe think with big field and an awful lot of speed here they might just take a sit. Another at the top of the weights here and just always cautious of those at the bottom of the weights in this race. Going really well though and don’t think we have seen the best of this one yet. Chance. 6-STAR WITNESS is a top notch run on sprinter who you would think is going to be suited here with lots of speed on. Mind blowing win in the Blue Diamond as a 2YO, been sparingly raced as a 3YO. Disappointing when 1st up and $1.80 fav (ouch!), but was in the worse going on the inside that day at Sandown – probably not enough of an excuse though. However it was a test run over 1300M 1st up, carrying 59 kgs so wasn’t really his thing. He was going to the Australian Guineas, but they have dropped him back to a sprint here which looks like a smart move. Just looks really well placed here, race is going to be run to suit and strong winning chance. SCR 7-AVENUE is a jump and run Caulfield specialist, and loves hot dry days at Caulfield with on pacers winning – which we might get. Fought on really well 1st up when she and the (12) went head to head and they will probably do the same there. Pretty impressive win strike rate and she did take a few runs to find best last time in so expect some improvement from 1st up run. Bit of a worry that has not won from 7 starts over 1100M – especially seeing she has won 7 from 16 – so has just about won all her starts that are NOT over 1100M ! Bizarre. But think that is probably just a statistical glitch, 2 of those were down the straight which isn’t her thing, some were on wet tracks, she was injured in one other. Drawn out and with lots of speed she can sit and run her race – rather than having to work to keep her position if drawn inside. Have to admit she has stung us a few times when we have taken her on, but pretty keen to back her today, so hopefully its payback time. Strong chance.2nd W=$13.40 8-RESPONSE had a pretty good spring and went very well fresh here 1st up last spring. Competitive in the Salinger so no reason why she can’t b competitive here as well. Maybe the 1100M might be a little short here, but will drop back drawn out, solid tempo with lots of on pacers who could knock each other out. Long odds think she is worth consideration as a roughie. Rough chance. 16-FASTER SON broke a 5 race winning streak last start. Actually wasn’t far off them, and stewards report says the bit went through horses mouth which can’t be good. Not really proven in this grade, but wasn’t far behind most of these last start – and note he drops 3kgs from that race when most of the rest of them stay at the same weight. Very well weighted. Think that puts him into this race today – and at bloody nice odds too – suspect he will start well overs on the tote. Bit of untapped about him and often lightly raced, no namers can put in big runs in this race. He is a jump and run horse though, so barrier 17 has gotta make it tough. Rough chance – but he is the one to throw in for your monster first fours and trifectas. Place: 1-CATAPULTED is a pretty solid sprinter and just a shame he has popped up in a time when we have two stand out sprinters, else he would be pushing it for the best sprinter going around. Great effort 1st up when was blocked for runs, but forced his way out and won with some dominance. Drawn a perfect barrier here again to sit on the speed, dry track will suit and should be in this for a long way. Just carrying topweight in an Oakleigh Plate is no easy task, so often something down in the weights pops up and he has to give 5kgs to a stack of decent sprinters down the bottom of this field. Will go close, really strong place chance, just suspect something with the weight pull will get the better of him. Prefer place. 9-SET FOR FAME is a smart mare who is has been pretty well placed though. Yet to be unplaced at Caulfield in 4 starts. Won 1st up last time in against weaker opposition. Probably better over further but another drop back runner who is going to be suited with the fast speed in this. Some rough chance fresh. 11-UNDENIABLY is a jump and run sprinter who will be one of many that pours the pressure on up front here. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, and his form lines look pretty strong. Leaders track and looked like he had pinched the race last start at MV, but just grabbed on the line. Dropping back to 1100M here, and even though he has won over further you do wonder if he may be best as a short course sprinter. Probably shares the leads along the inside here – and that’s going to be the issue – likely to have to do a fair bit of work to hold out those coming across from out wide which might bring him undone. If the on pacers are winning put in as a solid rough chance, else probably prefer place. 12-SOLAR CHARGED is a jump and run sprinter who is likely to get caught up in a speed battle here. Going to have to work very hard from barrier 1 to hold out those drawn out wider. Slaughtered them here on Caulfield Guineas Day on a dynamite leader’s track. Solid run 1st up, but just felt she was entitled to nose out the (7) for 2nd. Lightly raced, on pace light weight – type you want in an Oakleigh Plate. Problem with her is that she hangs out often – and she had drawn barrier 1 !. Fascinating. OK, so trick here is if she hangs out – what is going to get a dream split along the rails from behind her and win the race? Probably the (2). She is going to be in this for a long way, but you would just feel the pressure will bring her undone over the last 50M. Place. Sacking: 3-EAGLE FALLS is a strong finishing sprinter who was unlucky not to win this race last year when was coming and forced wide on the track. Probably slightly disappointing during spring – had perfect drag back in the field in Manikato and really should have got up for 2nd, then failed to even compete for the placings in next 2 runs. Even effort 1st up, but most of those who beat him home are going around again today here so hard to see him improving to beat all of them. Fast speed here will suit strong finisher – but big difference is last year he was carrying 53kgs and this year he has 57kgs. Prefer to risk 1st W=$20.00 4-REWARD FOR EFFORT is one, to be honest we have always thought was a little over rated. Was incredibly lucky to hold on here in the Monash back at the start of the spring, impressive win in Syd, but well held in later spring runs when had every chance. In the market 1st up and OK effort, but again most of those who beat him home are going around again here today, and the (1) beat him easily after having a bumping battle for much of the straight. Drawn out, normally races on speed, lots of speed here so think he is likely to get caught out wide and that will be the end of that. Passing. 5-SHELLSCRAPE does have some ability on his day, but can be hard to catch. Best form is on wet tracks and probably going to hit a dry track here. Yet to miss a place fresh and almost won a Group 2 1st up last time in. Has had the two trials going into this though, and on paper they don’t look that encouraging (for what that is worth..). Drawn nice barrier, can sit on pace, capable on his day, just a bit of a unknown at the moment so passing. No 10-KEANO is close to impossible to catch and simply cannot work him out. Is he just a sprinter? Or a 1400M horse? Just a dry tracker? Or a wet tracker? No idea. 14 starts in Group and Listed races for 1-1-1 pretty much tells the story – looks out of his depth there. No 13-HINCHINBROOK is checking out his new digs and the Caulfield night club scene. Best recent form has been in trials, which unfortunately the TAB do not allow betting on. Shame. Facing a big task here, drawn an inside barrier, will drop well back and you would think need a lot of luck. No 3rd W=$28.00 14-CARDINAL VIRTUE is taking a bit of a leap here, but has been going along OK. Placed 6/7 over the 1100M is a good sign and is fit and in form. Just suspect he is going to have to drop well back here from an outside barrier and that will make it a bit too difficult in this field. Passing. 15-VARENNA MISS is lightly raced and showing a stack of potential. Solid effort behind proven Group sprinter here last start, but she did only fall in at her two most recent wins. Barrier here is the biggest problem she seems to be an on pace type, she has drawn very wide and likely to get caught very wide in this. Huge hype on this one, and sure we are happy to consider lightly weighted, lightly raced horses in this race – but she just tends to start under the odds. Don’t think she represents value with this barrier and her form. Happy to leave out 4th W=$25.80 17-GENERAL TRUCE has made a career out of running placings and good 4ths and 5ths behind good horses – just always seems to find one better. Placed 7 from 13 – but only 2 from 7 at Caulfield is a bit of a worry. Just always finds on better in this sort of grade, light weight, but another drawn very wide and normally races on pace, but you would think they have no choice but to drop him back here. Barrier puts an end to his slim chances in this. No 18-PANIPIQUE looked like she could be something special when she swooped on the previous 3YO F star in CRYSTAL LILY here in the spring – but didn’t really go on with it. Quite possible she is just a sprinter. 1st up, likes to take a sit so the speed on here will suit, again outside barrier means likely to drop back. Bit of an unknown , hard to line her up, but prefer to let her run and see how she goes. No. Summary: Always a great betting race in a big, even field, and one of the few decent betting races on this program. Often a huge trifecta and first four, and if you want a piece of the pie it’s those at the bottom of the weights that can often run big races here – so let’s throw one in – the 16-FASTER SON as best roughie. Pace here should be pretty strong, 12-SOLAR CHARGED is going to have to work pretty hard from barrier 1 to hold out 7-AVENUE, 11-UNDENIABLY and a few others who might want to cross from outside barriers, 4-REWARD FOR EFFORT (wide), 15-VARENNA MISS (wide), 16-FASTER SON (wider still). Trick is going to be if the 12-SOLAR CHARGED hangs out with a lot of pressure and lets something behind her through. Despite the stack of pressure up front, think we are going to stick with 7-AVENUE on top – Caulfield specialist and liked that she held on for 2nd 1st up, and normally improves as she goes on each campaign. Drawn out means she can sit on the speed, but not have to work as much as those inside her. Fast pace will suit 6-STAR WITNESS running on, and much better suited here than 1st up over 1300M with 59 kgs (yuck). 2-FIRST COMMAND the other runner on we are interested in who could get a great sit here just behind the fast speed. Best roughie is 16-FASTER SON, who might start overs on the tote, and if he can get going forward here from outside barrier is likely to run a race. One to risk: 4-REWARD FOR EFFORT 10th W=$15.70 Roughie: 16-FASTER SON The Key: Watch for those at the bottom of the weights in this race. RESULTS : 7-AVENUE and 12-SOLAR CHARGED kick clear around the home turn in a speed battle, 7-AVENUE seems to be going better, but you could just see about 200M out that they were going to get swamped. As often is the case in this race lots of value runners and a blow out monster $115,000 First Four. One incredibly unlucky runner was 8-RESPONSE, who was held up for runs along the inside for most of the straight and clearly should have won. Solid effort from 15-VARENNA MISS as well who is one on the up. |
| RACE 7: BLUE DIAMOND STAKES GROUP 1 1200M 2YO |
| Tips: 4-DELAGO'S LAD 1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.40 14-HALLOWELL BELLE 2nd W=$12.70 Quinella : $5.80 |
| Others: 6,5,11 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 9-ANEVAY, 13-METONYMY Handy : 1-SEPOY, 3-ARCTIC COMMAND, 7-RUNNING TALL, 8-ENVIOUS, 14-HALLOWELL BELLE Back : 2-MASTHEAD, 4-DELAGO'S LAD, 5-GRAND BRITANNIA, 6-ATOMIC, 8-ENVIOUS, 10-SPECTROLITE, 11-HOLDONTOYAHORSES, 12-HELPING HAND Chances: 1-SEPOY is the deserved short priced favourite for this event and really if he repeats his lead up form should just win. Unbeaten in 3 runs, has been slaughtering his opposition and running away from them, he can settle handle or drop back, which is important for this race, and looks to have something special and untapped about him. So should win – only problem is this is the last race in the world you want to be backing a short priced favourite in – such an unpredictable race. One to beat. 1st W=$1.40 4-DELAGO'S LAD is one we are going to push for strongly at odds. Fitter for the 2 runs in, strong finishing type who was an eye catching run finishing on very hard late last start. The track at Morn was strongly favouring on pacers that day too, so his effort was pretty solid. He is the horse who has got closest to the short priced favourite, the (1), but that was over 1000M and you think this one is probably better with distance. Will drop out, finish on strongly and run the 1200M right out – precisely what you want in the Blue Diamond which is so often won by strong finishers. His last two runs have seriously been impressive. Looks a great value each way bet to us at around $31. Strong chance. 6-ATOMIC is the one that most are pushing as the main danger to the favourite. Fair enough too – in winning form, untapped, new form line – all strong recommendations. Maybe inside barrier a little concern here for a drop back 2YO in a Blue Diamond – has to get clear in a field of erratic 2YOs. Probably just pass over him ourselves, as prefer to go for some value here, but obviously a chance. 14-HALLOWELL BELLE was actually quite unlucky last start when was held up for a run for a fair distance down the straight and had to barge her way through to get clear. Finished on well once in the clear – but not overly strongly. Probably improvement to come from that run, was unlucky, can sit just off the speed here so if they don’t go fast like they usually do think she is going to present herself at precisely the right time and put herself into the race. Solid chance.2nd W=$12.70 Place: 2-MASTHEAD put in a nice win 1st up at Mornington and important to note that was over 1200M – such a big difference in running 1000 – 1100 – 1200M for the 2YOs. In winning form and represents a different form line to the favourite which is a plus. Was pretty unlucky 1st start at MV, right in the finish at Flem, won last start so hasn’t really done anything wrong so far. Maybe just the outside barrier a little concern, suspect naturally he races on the speed and might either get caught wide or have to drop back. Rough only. 3rd W=$51.30 5-GRAND BRITANNIA has been running on strongly in the lead up races which is always a good sign for this. Definitely looks like he needs it further and if we get the typical helter skelter Blue Diamond and it is set up for the runners on expect him to be some chance. Nice barrier for a back marker, can just drop out and do his own thing. Only issue is safely held by the (1) in both lead up runs so probably hard to see him turning it around, but guess you never quite know with 2YOs. Solid place chance – definitely put in trifectas and first fours. 9-ANEVAY is showing a fair bit of ability and really like the run here 2 starts back when fought it out all the way down the straight with one who won easily at her next start. Jumped to the lead and was never going to be beaten when heavily backed last start down the straight. Extra 100M is the test – and so often on pace runners in this race can come unstuck. Have to say though – on paper it doesn’t look like there is a huge amount of speed in this race which is a little unusual and the $21 looks over the odds to us – thought she would be a solid 2nd or 3rd pick in the market. Going to be very competitive, might even get a soft lead, but you just get the impression something will be running over her at the end of the race. Prefer to take her on. Place 11-HOLDONTOYAHORSES has been coming along nicely, gaining experience along the way. Pulled out to the middle of the track and worked home solidly last start, drawn a nice barrier, another who should appreciate the 1200M and finish on well. Probably won’t be far afar. Place. Sacking: 3-ARCTIC COMMAND really only just fell in, in a blanket finish down the straight on Stakes Day. Didn’t show much 1st up here 2 weeks back and hard to see him improving quickly enough to be a factor here. Blinkers 1st time and probably races handy. Passing. 7-RUNNING TALL will probably go forward here from an inside barrier with blinkers first time, and normally you need to be pretty good to win a Blue Diamond on pace. Shown some ability in his 2 starts, but well held last start against the favourite when was in the best going on the inside and always prefer to be on swoopers down the middle of the track in this – he is likely to get caught up on the inside in a speed battle. Hard to see him improving enough to beat the favourite. Passing. 8-ENVIOUS was a little unlucky in his 1st start, so will probably improve with the race experience. Did have a perfect cart into the race though. Another who has to improve rapidly though to turn around the margin against the favourite. Nice middle draw, probably sits handy. Throw in as a rough place chance if you are looking for a value trifecta. 10-SPECTROLITE ran on OK at her only start this time in – but was beaten a long way by some going around here. Looks a dead set drop back and run on type, drawn wide, Form is not as good as some of these, and not sure of the strength of those coming through that 2YO race on Stakes Day which was a blanket finish. Extra 200M will suit though, will start long odds, drop back and do her own thing, so again worth throwing her in wide trifectas if you are looking for a big collect. Otherwise, no 12-HELPING HAND is sponsor’s horse trying to win it’s feature race. Coming through weaker races, was out the back and wide all the way when disappointing last start – but there was a fall at the back of the field which could have put her off. Form doesn’t look good enough though. No 13-METONYMY has been showing some ability in the weaker lead up races – but guess you don’t really know what the weaker leads up are till they have actually all met do you? Runs have all been over 1000M which is a worry out to 1200M today, and is an on pacer. Was stuck in worse going on inside of track last start at Sandown when did scoot through and hit the lead about 200M out, but just concerned they were going past her at the end of the race. Should add some pace to this race. No 4th W=$57.20 Summary: Like most punters have to say we have never had much interest in betting in this race. Two year olds can improve very quickly, the steps from 1000M to 1100M to 1200M is like going from 1000M to 2000M, and there is always quite a few form lines and you never know which one is going to be the strongest till they meet. Fascinating this year that we have a very solid short priced favourite who has been destroying his rivals in the lead up runs. Really on form he should win, but sheesh, this is probably the last race you want to go backing a short priced favourite in, so just on principle we are going to search for something at value odds. Just looking back over the last 20 years results, only 4 favourites have won, but there have also been 4 winners $20 or better and plenty of winners in the $10 - $20 range. This race is normally run at a very fast speed, and the usual pattern is you want to be on something finishing on strongly down the middle of the track. Have to say this year there doesn’t look to be as much speed up front, 9-ANEVAY should get the lead pretty easily here, 13-METONYMY and 7-RUNNING TALL the others most likely to go forward, with 1-SEPOY, 3-ARCTIC COMMAND, 14-HALLOWELL BELLE sitting behind them. Despite the soft lead and impressive win last week, preferring to go around 9-ANEVAY and look for the runners on. 4-DELAGO'S LAD is a clear top pick for us on value, strong finisher, competitive with the favourite at their only meeting and think the two runs this time in have both been excellent. If it is going to be a strong finisher’s Blue Diamond think he is the one. 1-SEPOY the obvious pick and on form should win – just can’t bring ourselves to back a short priced favourite in this race. 14-HALLOWELL BELLE should position handy and put herself into the race at the right time and suspect she is definitely going to be in the finish. Actually more than happy to have something each way on the top pick at the $30 or so currently on offer. One to risk: 7-RUNNING TALL 7th W=$19.40 Roughie: 4-DELAGO'S LAD The Key: Race is often won by strong finishers RESULTS : The short priced favourite 1-SEPOY wins easily - sits on the speed and never looks in doubt. Clearly better than the Melbourne 2YO's at the moment so will be interesting to see if he stays in work and can go on with it in Sydney. Honest run from 14-HALLOWELL BELLE, and 4-DELAGO'S LAD, 5-GRAND BRITANNIA ran on OK and are worth following. |
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