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CAULFIELD : BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES - 15th Oct 2014
Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Not Thousand Guineas Day anymore, but Blue Sapphire Stakes Day. Which is strange because it is a Listed race, and the mares race is Group 3 – so surely that should be the feature? We will do the form for the “feature” race regardless, but the mares race is a much better betting race.

It was great having the four Group Ones back to back on Saturday, but this day badly needs a revamp and moving the Blue Sapphire here hasn’t worked with a very small field. Late start at 1:35pm is a good idea though so people can work half days and go to the races.

On pacers were definitely advantaged on Caulfield Guineas Day, and normally the track will start to even out today and turn towards those running on. Should be even racing, there are a few showers and a bit of decent rain about through the next few days so looks like we will get our first track with a bit of give in it all spring and doing the form for a genuine/worse side of dead track. . Suspect they will be coming off the rails here and maybe look towards those running on late on a track that will be starting to wear out a little later in the day.

Remember these are lesser quality fields and they are a bit more open than they appear so spread your win bets around on a few chances and there should be some decent value winners today. Only dabble and save your money for the better races on Saturday.

RESULTS: Pretty lack lustre meeting. Even racing, but most of the winners race on speed and quite a few take shortcuts along the inside of the field. Awful number of incidents where horses were unlucky and held up badly for runs, pretty much one in every race. 

BEST BET: Race 5: 7-ELOPING $7 WIN 1st W=$3.00 = $21
EXACTA: Race 5: 6-SUPIDO - 7-ELOPING x $2 X - 1st 7-ELOPING W=$3.00
EXACTA: Race 5: 3-NICOSCENE - 7-ELOPING x $1 X - 1st 7-ELOPING W=$3.00
Small field in the feature race and tactics and racing pattern are going to be important. A lot is going to come down to whether on pacers are winning or whether on a track that is wearing a bit they are running on and winning. Regardless, really the favourite here looks extremely well in this race under the set weights weight scale. She was won 5 races, raced in a higher level, won at a higher level and meets all these at level weights or less. Will jump and lead and unlikely to get that much pressure and probably breaks these apart – think the $3.20 on offer at the moment is good odds. There are some good backmarkers in this race with lots of potential, which is why the market is more even, but they still need to prove themselves and she already has. Back to win, and save with an exacta on the major danger the (6) who will probably get well backed again and the value runner the (3).
RESULTS: She is one tough mare. Gets kept off the rails by one kicking up inside her, is floundering half way down the straight, but still wins. Really, she was a 5 times winner, a group winner and most of the rest of the field had barely won a maiden. Still can't work out why she was $3.00, she should have been well under even money.

BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 14-PRECIOUS GEM $5EW X
QUINELLA: Race 7: 7,8(scr),9,12,14 boxed x $5 = 50% SCR $2 3rd 9-SUAVITO W=$4.30
Big field and plenty of value for the non feature Group 3 race and worth looking at something at odds. We have a bit of time for this one, not yet proven at this level but showing a fair bit of potential and has a good win/place strike rate. Fitter for the 3 runs in, her run here 2 starts back was excellent when she came from last on a track favouring on pacers and only just missed. Missed a run as an emergency in a better race since, and was forced to go to Seymour on a very heavy track where started a beaten even money favourite, but again tried to come from last on a track that was strongly favouring horses on speed. Forget that run. Strong finisher, drawn middle to finish down the middle of the track and big field should ensure a solid tempo, Great each way bet at around $26 and quite keen on her today at odds and putting more on her than the other each way bets even at these odds. In an even field take a box quinella with a few other value chances like the 12-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN, 8-KEEP DE ROSE, 7-JESSY BELLE and just in case our old favourite 9-SUAVITO. Where’s Suavito?
RESULTS: Change of riding tactics to be ridden more forward - and she still ends up at the back of the field. Hate it when that happens. Messy race and she works home well to finish 6th, but never going to win coming from last.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 10-BRING BACK $4 EW 2nd W=$12.50, P=$3.10 = $12.40
This one popped up last preparation twice in a row to win at big odds in the city, then went on to race in the top grade 3YO staying races in QLD. Fitter for the 2 runs in, out to the 2000M here suits and last run was good when went very wide and early from last to try and get into the race. Key is needs some speed on and needs them to be running on and winning OK, and this race is early in the day and there isn’t a huge amount of speed – but there also isn’t a huge amount of form in this race either. Worth something each way at around $13.
RESULTS: Ouch! Almost got the day off to a flying start there, great value top pick, looked the winner 50M out but one got a lucky run through the field to nail us.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 10-CATHY’S MARK $3 EW X
Lots of up and comers in this race and a lot of them are backmarkers, but think you want to look at those that are going to run out a strong 1600M. This one was great last start at MV, hugged the rails on the turn and launched on a leaders track to only just miss. Lots of improvement to come off that run being only her 2nd run in this time, and as long as there is some speed here to let her run on late should go lose here at around $13.
RESULTS: Never really a factor.

QUINELLA: Race 6: 2-IN CAHOOTS, 10-LION OF BELFORT x $2 1st 2-IN CAHOOTS W=$2.60, X
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2-IN CAHOOTS, 8-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG x $2 1st 2-IN CAHOOTS W=$2.60, 3rd 8-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG W=$5.50
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2-IN CAHOOTS, 9-FAST’N’ROCKING x $1 1st 2-IN CAHOOTS W=$2.60, 4th 9-FAST’N’ROCKING W=$5.50
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2-IN CAHOOTS, 11-ABOUT SQAURE x $1 1st 2-IN CAHOOTS W=$2.60, X
The top pick looks like the be in the finish in a pretty even sprint race, and he has been racing in excellent form. Will race on speed and put himself into the finish, just a matter really of whether something finishes over the top of him hard and late, especially with the big weight here. Safest way to go seem to be to anchor him in an quinella with some of the other chances like the (10) who needs to find his best form, the (8) rolling on speed, the (9) who may get back to his best form now he is gelded and the (11) who you need to forget the last run for. Fairly big field and wide market so quinella should pay OK.
RESULTS: The favourite wins, but the 8-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG is held up the length of the straight and should have won easily.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5: 2-TUDOR at around $6 4th W=$8.00
We actually tipped and backed this one last start so no loyalty at all with us. Jumped and led on a leaders track and had everything go right. Today will get taken on by notorious tough heart breaker the (7), has drawn inside and suspect they will be coming off the rails and winning and meeting a field of flashy backmarkers who may go on - just can’t see him winning this.
RESULTS: Goes head to head with the tough, gutsy favourite most of the way and does get a bad check, so did well to get this close.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
ALL UP x $5:
PLACE: Race 4: 4-AMAVERDE 2nd W=$5.80
PLACE: Race 5: 3-NICOSCENE X
PLACE: Race 7: 12-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN X
PLACE: Race 8: 5-MORANT X
Let’s take another of these all up place bets seeing we went pretty close on Saturday. Mainly coming home on the 5-MORANT in the last leg, who is a notorious non winner, and famous for looming up and not winning – but he has actually placed 5 of his last 10 runs and keeps paying $3 or so the place so always provides value. Kick off in the staying race with the 4-AMAVERDE who is fit and in form and should be in the finish, go a bit left of centre in the feature and take the outsider 3-NICOSCENE (and remember there are only 2 place dividends in this race), but last run was OK and will give us a big kicker into the last two legs, and the 12-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN who will be suited with some give here and if they are running on and winning and ran well last start.
RESULTS: Start off well, and the 3-NICOSCENE does loom as a danger in the straight, but fades. 12-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN gets smashed for runs, and 5-MORANT finishes closer to last which is very out of character.

SPENT:$50
RETURN:$35.40
NET:$-14.60


The Tips:

Race 1: 10-BRING BACK, 9-HELD HOSTAGE, 12-ZANTECA
Race 2: 1-BEAUTY’S BEAST, 3-SPY WEARS PRADO, 2-FRESHWATER STORM
Race 3: 10-CATHY’S MARK, 4-KAPSET, 2-MIHANY
Race 4: 4-AMAVERDE, 10-BRING SOMETHING, 8-PENTOMETER
Race 5: 7-ELOPING, 6-SUPIDO, 3-NICOSCENE
Race 6: 2-IN CAHOOTS, 10-LION OF BELFORT, 8-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG
Race 7: 14-PRECIOUS GEM, 12-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN, 8-KEEP DE ROSE
Race 8: 6-PYRROLIC, 13-ARTIC SONG, 5-MORANT



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
10-BRING BACK 2nd W=$12.50
9-HELD HOSTAGE
12-ZANTECA

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
1-BEAUTY’S BEAST
3-SPY WEARS PRADO
2-FRESHWATER STORM 1st W=$8.10

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
10-CATHY’S MARK
4-KAPSET 3rd W=$6.30
2-MIHANY

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
4-AMAVERDE 2nd W=$5.80
10-BRING SOMETHING 1st W=$4.10
8-PENTOMETER

Quinella: $8.20

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
7-ELOPING 1st W=$3.00
6-SUPIDO
3-NICOSCENE

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
2-IN CAHOOTS 1st W=$2.60
10-LION OF BELFORT
8-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG 3rd W=$5.50

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
14-PRECIOUS GEM
12-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN
8-KEEP DE ROSE

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
6-PYRROLIC
13-ARTIC SONG 2nd W=$7.80
5-MORANT


RACE 5: BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES 1200M LISTED
Tips:
7-ELOPING 1st W=$3.00
6-SUPIDO
3-NICOSCENE

Others: 4

Pace: EVEN
Leaders: 2-TUDOR, 7-ELOPING
Handy: 3-NICOSCENE, 5-BURNING PASSION
Back: 4-HUSSON EAGLE, 6-SUPIDO, 8-SULTRY FEELING


Chances:
3-NICOSCENE is a lightly raced one yet to miss the place in 4 starts. Sat just off the speed and chased home really well last start at MV behind the (1) and nothing made ground that night so think the run was really good. Think the speed on here is going to suit, good chance they will be coming off the rails and running on, he is drawn out and will be coming home hard late, and his last run was a lot better than it looked so is going to be a strong chance in this. Proven on wet ground. Chance.

4-HUSSON EAGLE ran some great races in tougher fields as a 2YO, but didn’t manage to get a win on the board till his short priced maiden win last start. Soft win too, and he has a fantastic finishing burst. Small field here will suit as won’t get held up for runs back of the field, just needs the speed to be on. Looks well suited here if they are winning running on. Unknown on wet ground. Chance. 3rd W=$5.80

6-SUPIDO has only had the one start, but stable obviously had a strong opinion of him to bring him to town into a fairly strong race and he got pretty well backed so he obviously has some ability. Leader kicked and won that race, but this one made great ground late over the 1000M and the 1200M looks more suitable today. Maiden and only 2nd race start up against more seasoned field but looks like he is going to rise pretty quickly. Small field, so would want the speed on, but surely the (7) will run them along? Likely to favour runners on today and good chance he is going to sweep down the middle and win this. Strong chance.

7-ELOPING is a tough as anything front runner who went head to head on speed last start and broke the spirit of a pretty good horse. Noted through her 2YO season as being tough as, she just kept backing up and winning and winning and winning bowling along on speed and thrived on hard racing. 5 wins from 10 starts speaks for itself. Fitter for the 2 runs in, proven on wet ground, small field and really only the (2) to take her on in the lead here – and that should be easy pickings for this one. Chances are largely going to come down to how the track is racing as she totally dictates the speed here, so if the on pacers are sticking on she wins, but if the track is cutting up and they are running on late she might get run down. Worth noting she is very well in here in the race at set weights, having won and be competitive at a much higher level than all of these. One to beat 1st W=$3.00

Place:
2-TUDOR is a good jump and run sprinter on his day and got the big plus of the dynamite leader’s track at MV last start. Barrier 1 and probably jumps and tries to lead here again, but the (7) is known now for taking on leaders and breaking them in half so he might have a more difficult task here. Little bit of give in the ground won’t hurt. Barrier 1 might be an issue by the time we get to this race and think the track might be playing towards runners on. Fit, in form, last start winner, so can’t under estimate, but everything did fall into place last start and prefer place today. Place.4th W=$8.00

8-SULTRY FEELING is a another Sydney visitor who is dropping back in class and struggled a bit in the higher grades. Drops back in the run and handles wet ground, not sure he has the zip over 1200M here to run down a tear away leader? Watch the betting market on this one, but prefer place. Place. 2nd W=$9.60


Sacking:
1-DELECTATION SCR

5-BURNING PASSION is a Sydney visitor dropping back in distance after a freshen up who normally settles just off the speed. Form through previous races is strong, but this is more his level. Stable must think he is going OK to bring him down and he isn’t striking the toughest field going around here. Watch the betting market on this one, but hard to line him up and prefer others, Risking.,

Summary: Small field and bit hard to have a serious bet in the “feature” race of the day. Really it is going to come down to how the track is racing, there is a bit of rain around so should get a track genuinely worse side of dead, and suspect they might be coming off the rails here which should favour the runners on.

Speed here is 2-TUDOR, 7-ELOPING leading, but you would think 7-ELOPING would just charge straight ahead, and she will be able to dictate this race. Most of the rest are backmakers and they wouldn’t want to let her too far out of their sights here. But there are a few talented backmarkers here who might be able to run her down if the conditions allow.

Going to go with 7-ELOPING who has the chance to lead and kick if required here, even if the track is cutting up and favouring runners on she should pinch a break on these and is extremely well in under this weight scale. 6-SUPIDO the obvious danger , that debut run was pretty good and the betting support suggests the stable know they have a pretty good horse on their hands. The value runner here might be the 3-NICOSCENE, who will sit a bit closer than the other back markers and really liked the first up run. Probably a win bet on the top pick and something each way on the (3) for an interest depending on the odds on offer.

One to risk: 2-TUDOR 4th W=$8.00
Roughie: 3-NICOSCENE

The Key: Track favouring runners on?

RESULTS: Really surprised by the odds on offer about the winner 7-ELOPING , got out to $3.50 with bookmakers and had better form, more wins, in higher grade, at set weights against these. Happy to keep following the 3-NICOSCENE who loomed up out wide half way down the straight but died on the run, but nothing made ground that far out today.


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