|CAULFIELD: BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES - 14th Oct 2015|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
This is the case of the mysteriously shrinking mid week meeting as the Caulfield middle day program gets smaller and duller by the year. This program is desperately in need of a revamp, it is hard to get enthused about betting today at all. Dare we say it – you are probably better off going to work than the races! (and we never, ever say that).
The rail stays TRUE here, the same as it was on Saturday for the Caulfield Guineas. Surprisingly on Saturday, a day where the racing pattern normally favours those on speed, the rails were actually off. Nearly all the winners came out wide and they could win running on late. Suspect that pattern will remain and the track should also stay quite firm which has generated a lot of discussion this week as well. Just be wary though of the smaller fields and not much speed in many of these races.
There isn’t much in value around today, and doubt we will see any double figure odds winners. Most of the fields have 2-3 main chances that are still each way odds, so each way on the top pick might be the best way to go.
RESULTS: Glorious sunny day and the racing pattern is extremely even, they can win leading or running on. We manage to tip up a storm, despite losing quite a few selections/bets to scratchings (Ok, the small fields do help, but still - the tips went pretty well!). Four winners on top and 7 winners in the selections from 8 races and we squeezed the smallest of profits in the Betting Portfolio.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 1-MISS ROSE DE LAGO $7 WIN 1st W=$3.40 = 7 x $3.40 = $23.80
QUINELLA: Race 7: 1-MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 10-AMARELA x $3 1st 1-MISS ROSE DE LAGO W=$3.50, 3rd 10-AMARELA W=$14.10
QUINELLA: Race 7: 1-MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 8-REDASUN x $2 SCR $2
One of the better betting races of the day and the key to these mares feature races is always the set weights scale which benefits the class horses at the top of the weights. This one is just a super trier and has been racing in great form recently. Really good on speed in a blanket finish at Flemington in a much tougher race, and impressive leading all the way to win here 2 starts ago. Has had a break, then a run and then another 4 weeks off so might need this run as well, but she is just racing so well at the moment. Drawn out, but should go forward and wide and this is another race with not much speed at all. Looks the one to beat at around $4.80, and take quinellas with the improving (10) and the value runner the (8) who might go better back onto a dry track today.
RESULTS: She is a little beauty and jumps and runs and leads and never looks like getting beaten. Bit stiff not to double up with a nice value quinella too with a narrow 3rd.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 6-BOOM TIME $4 EW SCR $8
QUINELLA: Race 3: 6-BOOM TIME#2,4,5 x $6 = 200% SCR $6
There are quite a few chances in this race, which is strange seeing it is only a field of 9. But most of them drop well back in the run so we want to look for something racing on speed. This one is fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been good, he has made good ground and not been beaten far to finish 4th both times. Only won the 1 from 17, which is a concern, but best form is over these longer distances and he can go forward here and just looks ready to do something. Back him each way at around $6.50, and take in quinellas with the (2), (4), (5), all of whom have a bit of ability and look ready to do something – but all drop back and run on.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 10-PURPLE SMILE $4 EW 3rd W=$11.00, P=$2.20 = $8.80
QUINELLA: Race 4: 10-PURPLE SMILE, 5-HARADAFULL x $2 3rd 10-PURPLE SMILE W=$11.00, 4th 5-HARADAFULL W=$6.80
We have been following the (5) here who looks to be a quite smart stayer on the way up (go back and watch Pakenham win 2 starts back), and thought we would be tipping that one. However once we did the form the (10) really stuck out. Only missed the place twice in 14 starts. Fitter for the 4 runs in and has been stepping up in distance every start, and we really like getting on them when they reach the 2500M and then run again at the distance. Was really good at MV last start sitting on the speed and should go forward and make his own luck again, and meets the (5) 2kgs better off for that last run. Looks a pretty safe each way bet at around $6.50, and save on the quinella with the favourite as well.
RESULTS: Leads and gives a good kick but finds one better. At least we didn't tip the short priced Williams stable runner, 7-GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY 6th W=$1.70 who was the first horse beaten. Who on earth has the money to back these horses time and time again?
QUINELLA: Race 6: 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT, 4-KEEN ARRAY x $2 X, 1st 4-KEEN ARRAY W=$2.20
QUINELLA: Race 6: 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT, 1-KINGLIKE x $2 SCR $2
There are a lot of smart sprinters in the feature race, but the betting trick may be to step outside of the first three in betting and look at the likely leader the (5) who was pretty good at Flemington and might run along here and give those back in the field a bit of a scare. One of the smart ones might have his measure, so back in quinellas with the main chances the (4) and the (1).
RESULTS: Leads but is well held in the straight for a fading 4th.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 9-CONSOLING AMY $2.50 EW X
Really hard to get enthused about much at odds today, so this is the best one we could find. 1st up over the 1400M here and doesn’t win out of turn, and does tend to drop well back in his races. But the main thing to notice is that he ran 3rd in this race last year, running on late, at 100-1 when 1st up as well. There is a lot of speed in this race this year, and if the track favours runners on like it did on Saturday then he will be suited and might do something today at around $21 (but expect better odds come race time).
RESULTS: Never looks likely.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 3-FIREHOUSE ROCK at around $3.60 2nd W=$3.60
One we have a love-hate relationship with. Backed it and it should have won both the Caulfield Classic and Autumn Classic here when looked the winner 100M from home both times, but stopped. Gelded before this preparation, but that doesn’t seem to have made much difference as he got to the lead her last start and wanted to pull up yet again and almost threw the race away. Has an excellent Caulfield record and a stack of ability – but also a stack of issues. This isn’t strong and may win this, but you would be brave to keep backing this one given his prior convictions.
RESULTS: The bugger dropped back and came with a great run and almost stung us! Lucky to get out of this one. They seem to have worked him out and he needs to be ridden cold and left for one late run at them.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
EARLY QUAD: (Races 1,2,3,4): 2 / 5,6,9 / 2,4,6 / 5,6(scr),10 x $5 = 18.51%
1st 2-MR INDIVIDUAL W=$2.20 / 1st 5-SECRET TOY BIZNESS W=$5.00 / 3rd 2-SECOND BULLET W=$6.70 / 1st 6-FOUR CARAT W=$11.60
We were going to make the Race 1: 2-MR INDIVIDUAL the Best Bet of the Day, but backing a short priced favourite in the first race is deadly dull. This is a pretty weak field and he ran pretty well in the Guineas Prelude when he sat handy and held his ground to the line. Was emergency for the Guineas and didn’t get a run, so ends up going around here in a much weaker race. Close to no speed in this race at all and he should sit handy and win. So rather than backing straight out, let’s try an Early Quad and we have been pretty good this season in the early races. Go one out on the short priced favourite in the 1st race. Take the selections the (5), (6), (9) in the 2nd race (and hope for the roughie), and maybe go wider in that leg as it is the race most likely to put some value in, and the 3 selections in each of Races 3 and Race 4. Unlikely to pay huge, but there is a good chance of some $6 each way winners so the dividend should be around $500.
RESULTS: Bit stiff not to get a collect here and we were right on the money. The good thing won easily in the first race and never looked to be in doubt. We found the value winner of the last leg too. Unfortunately we lost our top pick due to scratchings in the 3rd leg which is the leg we dropped out on - and the Early Quad paid a very nice $3420 if you could find the winner in the 3rd leg in a field of only 7 runners.
Race 1: 2-MR INDIVIDUAL, 3-HE’S OUR ROKKII, 4-SAVATONE
Race 2: 6-TOTOLO, 5-SECRET TOY BIZNESS, 9-CONSOLING AMY
Race 3: 6-BOOM TIME, 2-SECOND BULLET, 4-UNGRATEFUL ELLEN
Race 4: 10-PURPLE SMILE, 5-HARADAFULL, 6-FOUR CARAT
Race 5: 5-ZEBRINZ, 10-DARRAGH, 2-HE OR SHE
Race 6: 4-KEEN ARRAY, 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT, 1-KINGLIKE,
Race 7: 1-MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 10-AMARELA, 8-REDASUN
Race 8: 3-FAST’N’ROCKING, 8-THE QUARTERBACK, 9-JAVA
|RACE 1: RESULTS|
2-MR INDIVIDUAL 1st W=$2.20
3-HE’S OUR ROKKII 2nd W=$2.70
|RACE 2: RESULTS|
6-TOTOLO 3rd W=$4.90
5-SECRET TOY BIZNESS 1st W=$5.00
|RACE 3: RESULTS|
6-BOOM TIME SCR
2-SECOND BULLET 3rd W=$6.70
|RACE 4: RESULTS|
10-PURPLE SMILE 2nd W=$11.00
6-FOUR CARAT 1st W=$11.60
|RACE 5: RESULTS|
5-ZEBRINZ 3rd W=$5.70
2-HE OR SHE 1st W=$4.20
|RACE 6: RESULTS|
4-KEEN ARRAY 1st W=$2.20
|RACE 7: RESULTS|
1-MISS ROSE DE LAGO 1st W=$3.40 *** Best Win Bet Of the Day ***
10-AMARELA 3rd W=$14.10
|RACE 8: RESULTS|
3-FAST’N’ROCKING 1st W=$5.20
8-THE QUARTERBACK 2nd W=$8.60
|RACE 6: BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES 1200M LISTED 3YO|
4-KEEN ARRAY 1st W=$2.20
|Others: - |
Leaders: 2-HAPTIC, 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT
Handy: 3-BLACK VANQUISH, 4-KEEN ARRAY, 7-DARK STEEL
Back: 1-KINGLIKE, 6-MOGADOR, 8-VON MAESTRO
1-KINGLIKE has a bit of a spruik on him and he flagged he might live up to that with a very impressive Flemington straight win last start. Was a good quality field and he came out and sprinted past them very nicely. Which gave jockey G.Boss the chance to talk him up, just like he did with CHIVALRY last year…and boy oh boy hasn’t that horse gone on… Drawn barrier 1, but only a small field and likely to sit back off them here and pounce – and he showed last start that he can do just that. Looks the one to beat and really if he repeats his last start he probably wins this. Strong chance. SCR
4-KEEN ARRAY seems to be coming along quite nicely indeed and stable is in great form this spring. Won by a lazy 8 lengths or so 1st up, and then here at Caulfield 2nd up he got caught up in a speed battle which set it up for one taking a sit. Much smarter ride at MV when he sat back just off them and really like the way he confidently strode into the finish there and put them away like a smart horse. Suspect they probably sit just off them here as well. Looks to be a smart one and stable has an opinion of this one. Strong chance. 1st W=$2.20
5-RAPHAEL’S CAT is a Sydney visitor who is fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been excellent. Shared the lead down the straight last start and gave a really nice kick to accelerate away from them at the 200M, but the (1) came out and ran past him pretty easily. Suspect he might be better around a turn though and if they are winning on speed here today he is a solid chance here. Chance. 4th W=$6.60
2-HAPTIC is a Sydney visitor in the Godolphin blue who has shown a lot of speed in his career so far. Unbeaten going into the Golden Slipper as a 2YO. Two runs back this time in have both been good and should still have improvement to come here. Has led and been run down both starts this time in though. Left alone in front could be a danger here, but that would depend on how the track is racing (and if it favours runners on like Saturday then that would dent his chances). Place. 3rd W=$4.80
3-BLACK VANQUISH put together two good wins mid year, including one at this track and distance. Had a spell and was in the market 1st up in the Danehill when he led, but was disappointing, but was found to have a bit of a cough afterwards so maybe you can forgive that run. He can sit handy and put himself into this race at the right time in a small field. Maybe watch the betting on this one – if it was just a temporary issue last start and he returns to his best he would be a decent chance in this, else prefer place. Place.
6-MOGADOR is another Godolphin blue runner down from Sydney. Been settling a long way back in his races and running on really well, though that has been over the shorter trips so maybe he might settle a little closer today over the 1200M? 2nd up here off a 4 month break and up 200M. Was slowly away and won by taking lucky runs through the field last start, but had the ability to do it. Just got a slight concern in a small field here, he might be a bit sluggish again and be giving a few smart ones a head start here on the home turn, so probably just going around him today. Place. 2nd W=$4.00
7-DARK STEEL is another Sydney runner and really it would have been cheaper to just ship the Melbourne horses up there for this race. Hit some soft tracks as a 2YO and didn’t set the world on fire. Won a maiden 1st up this time in as a short priced favourite and then was drawn wide and went forward and raced wide here in the Guineas Prelude so you can probably forgive that run. You would think this race is the Plan B though so hard to get too enthused about the chances of this one. No
8-VON MAESTRO had support in a Geelong maiden and didn’t do much. Vet check showed no abnormalities. Punter check showed severe pain and inflammation. Hard to see him improving enough to be a factor in this. No.
Summary: Small field, but some pretty nice up and coming 3YO sprinters here. The racing pattern and the tactics are going to be the crucial things here. Suspect the racing pattern will favour those running on again, but in a small field, something smart and sitting handy should be in prime position to scoot for home on the turn here.
Speed should be even here with the 2-HAPTIC, 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT sharing the lead and the
3-BLACK VANQUISH, 4-KEEN ARRAY sitting off them.
Going to go with the 4-KEEN ARRAY, really liked the way he put them away last start at MV and think he will sitting closer to the speed than his main rivals and may zip away and finish this race off before they get warm. The 1-KINGLIKE is obviously very smart and a repeat of the last start win would win this too. Value runner is the 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT, despite being beaten by the (1) last start like the way he extended 200M from home and if they are sticking on OK on the speed he could lead and pinch this.
One to risk: 6-MOGADOR 2nd W=$4.00
Roughie: 5-RAPHAEL’S CAT
The Key: Feigning some interest in this race.
RESULTS: Pretty painless watch and the favourite and top pick sits off them and wins. Main challenger was the 6-MOGADOR who did threaten, but just dropped a bit too far back to be a winning chance.