|CAULFIELD: BLUE SAPPHIRE - 12th Oct 2016|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Good to see a much stronger and interesting card this year (last year was a shocker), with some very even races and decent sized fields. There are a few showers forecast, but they should come later in the day and probably won’t have a huge effect. The wind is more likely to be a factor though, so again watch out for horses with cover and running on late. On Saturday the track raced very evenly, but they could run on and win OK and suspect the racing pattern here will favour those running on down the middle of the track.
BEST BET: Race 4: 9-PLOT THE COURSE $10 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 4: 9-PLOT THE COURSE, 4-RADICAL x $2
QUINELLA: Race 4: 9-PLOT THE COURSE, , 7-MAGIC CONSOL x $2
Looked like one on the up last spring and then had a dud preparation in the Autumn. Seems to have come back to best and should be much fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been excellent. Threaded through late here 1st up and then got held up for runs at MV but finished off really well once the leader had bolted. A bit of rain around would assist, but just looks ready to win and there isn’t much depth to this field at all Back straight out at around $4 and have some value quinellas with the 4-RADICAL who is fitter for 2 runs in and goes well here and the very consistent 7-MAGIC CONSOL who looked the winner here last start half way down the straight.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-SO WILLIE $5 EW
Big and even field in the first race but this one has been racing very consistently and was finishing off really well here last start. May just drop back a bit from barrier 1 and need some luck in running, but last run was full of merit and worth an each way bet at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 12-MERRIEST $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 12-MERRIEST #1,2,5,8 x $2 = 50%
Really solid field for the feature race this year with lots of smart up and coming types, but there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of pressure up front and just wonder if something may lead and kick here and prove hard to run down. This one is fit and in form, fought back well to win 2 starts back and then got caught up on furious tempo up front last start when fought on well. Looks a nice each way bet at around $8.50 and a nice anchor for quinellas if the favourite misses the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 2-HANDSOME TYCOON $2.50 EW
Really liked the run of this one last start, jumped and went really, really hard with another leader and they cleared out from the field. He got the better of the other one, but just died on run to the line, but still think it was a great run. Does have 60kgs and out to the 1400M for the first time, which may be a query, but if they jump and go forward again wouldn’t be surprised if he kept going this week. Each way at around $17, but expect betters odds closer to race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 14-DULVERTON $3 EW
Seems to be racing in extremely good form and was unlucky not to finish closer last start when took a while to wind up Drop back type with a strong finish who is probably better suited away from MV and would prefer some give in the ground, but we might have had some showers by the last race. Drawn a nice middle barrier to sit out and run on, and they should be winning running on late by the last race. Nice rough bet to finish the day in a very even, tough field at around $17.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 15-EURO ANGEL at around $5
We had a clean slate with the lays until the last two weeks when they have both won, so let’s hope the run ends soon. Which means we have got too scared to declare a lay on some of the other shorties we don’t like today so trying to play it “safe” in the last. Big and even field coming into the last race and there are plenty of others that offer greater value compared to this one that is currently favourite. Lightly raced, and heap of potential, but odds just seem to be based on spruik rather than her actual form. Prefer to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 2,4,5,14,16 x $5 = 50%
We have already mentioned our roughie 14-DULVERTON in the last race. The main danger is the smart, but perpetually unlucky 16-EGYPT, and watch out for the on pacer at odds here the 2-ANTELUCAN in a race with not much speed and forgive last start when she raced into the fierce wind at Flemington. Box them up all at value with the 4-GABELLA and the 5-ROCKET COMMANDER and there should be an value quinella in the last with a big, even field.
Race 1: 6-SO WILLIE, 3-THE THUG, 9-FERRO NERO
Race 2: 6-THEANSWEMYFRIEND, 3-RIBBON OF CHOICE, 4-SMART AS YOU THINK
Race 3: 3-LOVING HOME, 5-FIRENZE, 7-FOUR CARAT
Race 4: 9-PLOT THE COURSE, 4-RADICAL, 7-MAGIC CONSOL
Race 5: 2-HANDSOME TYCOON, 9-VOSTOK, 15-STYLISH MISS
Race 6: 12-MERRIEST, 1-FLYING ARTIE, 5-BARTHELONA
Race 7: 1-ADMIRAL, 2-KEEN ARRAY, 3-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD
Race 8: 14-DULVERTON, 16-EGYPT, 2-ANTELUCAN