|CAULFIELD : BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES - 18th Oct 2017|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: HOT - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Stunning warm weather heading into this mid week meeting and this card has actually come up pretty good this year from a punting point of view. The feature race in particular has a stack of winning chances and there is actually some interest in the rest of the program, which has come up light a few times previously. Plus there is a lazy 1:30pm start, perfect for the half day off work.
Inside barriers and on speed was the way to go on Caulfield Guineas Day and the rail is staying TRUE here. The ground is going to end up very firm indeed with 30 degrees forecast and the racing pattern should remain, especially in smaller fields with not as much speed up front. On speed and barriers today are the way to go today. Unlikely to be any $100 winners and you would think those in the market will dominate most races.
The feature race is very even , with lots of live chances and hard to know which way to go. The 10-CROWN WITNESS is unbeaten in 3 starts and was confidently backed to win here last start against a smart one, drawn inside and goes forward and looks the one to beat. The value runner is the 1-SUMMER PASSAGE kept for this race from Saturday, and should also go forward. 9-FORMALITY the class horse here, just a slight concern if the Sydney campaign was the main target and the improving 6-I DID IT AGAIN quite capable of going forward as well. Very even betting race and probably just play with quinellas with the (1), rather than having a serious bet.
BEST BET: Race 7: 8-RICH CHARM $5 WIN
Up and coming sprinter who has a sensational finishing burst and was in flying form before going out for a break. 1st up here last start just couldnít get clear running with one racing close on his outside and only got clear late. Looks really well suited here in a race with not much form and only 54kgs. Drawn well, however, there isnít a huge amount of speed here, except the (2) and (4), but the (2) normally flies along and strings them out. So just needs to get a flying split between them at the right time. Keen to bet straight out at around $4.40, and taking a quad as the Turf Deli Wonder Bet with him one out as well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-CHEQUERED FLAG $4 EW
Honest on pacer stayer, who is actually a hurdler but has been racing really well on the flat. Firm track is a slight concern, but has only missed the place on good tracks once in 12 starts Ė just never won one! Fitter for the one run back from a let up, and in a small field here the only other on speed horse is the short priced favourite the (4) who isnít proven at the trip, so there is a chance to run along here and pinch this race and out stay him. Happy to go each way at around $5.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-DODGING BULLETS $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3-DODGING BULLETS, 11-PORTION CONTROL x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3-DODGING BULLETS, , 14-SILVERA x $1 = 100%
Honest on pacer when in form and fitter for the 3 runs in and looks ready to win. First two runs back were both good and then blew the start when a short priced favourite at Bairnsdale and was finishing on well against his normal racing pattern. Holds form really well once he finds it and drawn an inside barrier here in a race with no pressure up front at all and a lot of backmarkers. Looks a really confident each way bet, especially if the track is favouring on pacers again, and take quinellas with the two main dangers, the (11) who found the 1400M too short last start, and the up and coming short priced favourite the (14), who is going to drop back from an inside barrier. The $8 on offer looks crazy odds though about this one, and if they hold up would be a very confident last race bet.
QUINELLA: Race 6: 1-SUMMER PASSAGE#6,8,9,10 x $4 = 100%
Very even feature race with plenty of winning chances, but the punting plan here may be to take quinellas with the NZ on pacer the (1). He was really good fighting on in the Guineas Prelude and stable decided to keep him from Saturday and drop him back to this sprint distance. Drawn middle and should go forward and be in the finish, so looks a good runner to anchor in quinellas which should pay OK in a even betting race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 7-BORN TO FIGHT $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 1,3,7,10,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
We have a short priced favourite the (4) in this , who was very good winning last start, but most of these are lightly raced and on the way up and many are coming off impressive country runs. The value runner is the (7) who should get a good on pace sit from an inside barrier. Fitter for the 3 runs in, fought on really well at Flemington last start and looks over the odds at around $31. There are good odds on offer here about plenty of up and coming horses like the 12-LILAS and 10-CIRCOMO so box up a value quinella which blows out if the favourite, who looks under the odds, flops.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 9-STORMSABREWING $5 EW
We are calling this Best Rough because of the $13 odds on offer, but this is one of our main bets of the day. Back marker with a slashing finishing burst who is over due to pick up a good race and this looks a winnable one. Only a small field, and not really suited under this weight scale, but means he can loop around and run on, as he often has bad luck getting a run. Just needs them to be able to run on OK today. Not the strongest field going around, some are distance queries, and some are mixing their form. Flashed home late from an outside barrier 1st up and just think he can sit off them here and run over them. Keen to bet at around $13.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4:13-BRYNEICH at around $4.20
Currently competing for favouritism in an very even field, was held up for runs 1st up when couldnít get clear. 2nd up and up 200M here and drawn inside which is a plus, but form line reads like he need some give in the ground. Godolphin stable runners keep starting way under the odds and we have seen a few of their short priced runners go down in the last few weeks. Pretty ordinary field and would prefer to just play with a few at odds and suspect this one will get backed and may start favourite. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
QUAD: Races 5,6,7,8: 3,9 / 1,6,8,9,10 / 8 / 1,3,11,14 x $5 = 12.5%
Most of our bets are in the last four races so letís try to snare a value quaddie. Narrow down the first leg to just two runners, our roughie 9-STORMSABREWING and the in form leader the 3-HELL OR HIGHWATER. Go wide in the feature race 2nd leg, where there are plenty of chances, and if something away from the main few in the market wins the dividend will blow out. Anchor the best bet of the day 8-RICH CHARM in the third and really hard to see anything past the top three (3), (11), (14) winning the last, but lets throw in a random roughie the (1) as well, just for an impressive quaddie approximate if we get that far.
Race 1: 8-CHEQUERED FLAG, 4-UP ĎNí ROLLING, 6-SIN TO WIN
Race 2: 4-GOODWILL, 2-VIOLATE, 3-ELECTRIC FUSION
Race 3: 7-BORN TO FIGHT, 1-MUTAMYEL, 12-LILAS
Race 4: 3-STEEL FROST, 4-BEL BURGESS, 12-TRIBAL WISDOM
Race 5: 9-STORMSABREWING, 3-HELL OR HIGHWATER, 2-FLYING JESS
Race 6: 10-CROWN WITNESS, 1-SUMMER PASSAGE, 9-FORMALITY
Race 7: 8-RICH CHARM, 2-FAATINAH , 11-SO YOU TOO
Race 8: 3-DODGING BULLETS, 11-PORTION CONTROL, 14-SILVERA