|CAULFIELD: BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES - 17th OCT 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Caulfield has been racing really fairly and they can definitely run on OK and win. There is finally a bit of rain around the next two days and the rail stays TRUE so suspect they will be coming off the rails later in the day and the racing pattern should favour those running on late. Track may even get down into the SLOW range, with a few storms forecast, but always hard to tell exactly how much rain is going to fall (it is just about always less than expected).
In the ďfeatureĒ race we have got a small field and a short priced favourite which has happened a few times now since the meetings were moved around. Small fields can be tactical, but really the 4-TONY NICCONI should get a pretty soft lead here with the 1-WRITTEN BY and 5-SMART ELISSIM sitting just off them. They arenít going to go quickly which could make it difficult for the backmarkers in this. Really, under this weight scale the short priced favourite the 1-WRITTEN BY should just win. The value runner is probably the 5-SMART ELISSIM whose form was good before hitting a heavy track in Sydney, and should stalk the speed here, and the 4-TONY NICCONI is actually going to get a pretty soft lead here so just watch out if the pattern favours on pacers early on (which looks unlikely at this stage). Very little value, but probably just plonk on a quinella on the top two picks.
We will own up to having a dead set shocker of a day at Caulfield on Saturday. Short priced favourites and internationals are definitely not our thing. This meeting can be a bit hit and miss in terms of depth, so there doesnít look to be much in the way of value today, but think you can have confident win bets on a few of these and there are some OK horses with potential going around. Think most of the winners will come from the first 2-3 in the market in each race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-YULONG METEOR $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 13-YULONG METEOR#1,8,11,12 x $4 = 100%
We were actually keen to back this one in the Edward Manifold a few weeks back, but it was scratched. Have to admit we are not sure of the reason for the scratching, but as long as there has been no major issues really looks hard to beat today. Has been coming along really nicely and improving each start and running really good finishing bursts. Last start at Flemington just gave one who looks might be pretty good too big a start, but still ran on well. Drawn outside here really suits, as does a possible track favouring runners on and not too fussed about dropping back in distance as at least will definitely run out the trip against many stepping up in distance for the first time. Really confident each way bet at around $6 and take in quinellas with the main danger the 1-REAL SUCCESS and the value runners the 8-GHEEDAA, 11-SYDíS COIN and the 12-TITAN BLINDERS.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 12-NOTIO $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 12-NOTIO, 7-FIFTY STARS x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 3: 12-NOTIO, 8-SO FAR SKOOL, 10-SUNDAY PRAY x $3 = 100%
One we have been following and keen to get on today. Pretty good career stats and excellent 1400M stats where has only missed the place twice. Ran on nicely first up when didnít really get clear running room for most of the straight. Blinkers go on today and a strong finisher who will be suited if that is the racing pattern. Keen to back each way at around $10, and we do have a short priced favourite in this, the 7-FIFTY STARS, who will be hard to beat, but does look poor value to us, and is beatable. So save on a quinella, and a cheeky box quinella with value runners like the 8-SO FAR SKOOL, 10-SUNDAY PRAY should the favourite not feature in the finish.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 7-MRS GARDENIA $5 EW
There isnít much between the first few class mares in the market here. This one has drawn well and can go forward in a race without much pressure up front. Her main rivals are the 1-I AM A STAR who is drawn wide, and was SCR Saturday for this race, and the 2-OREGONíS DAY who drops well back, so she should get the run of the race in this. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in, and last start at MV was held up for ages trying to get clear and held ground to the line against the (1), who she meets a handy 3kgs better off today. Looks a good each way bet at around $6.
QUINELLA: Race 5: 1-WRITTEN BY, 5-SMART ELISSIM x $3
Not much value around in the feature race, and the short priced favourite 1-WRITTEN BY should really win. We will take a straight out quinella though with the value runner the 5-SMART ELISSIM at around $10
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 8-ADDISON $1.50 EW
Really hard to find much of value in these fields as there is little depth. This is a very tricky race with a few internationals going around, and no, not all of them win by 6 lengths eased down, and nothing in this race has really solid form. This one drops back, but should be fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to show something now if they are running on OK at around $31.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 10-OAK DOOR $2 EW
Good on pace sprinter on his day, but hasnít shown best form for a while. Has been OK in first two runs this time back and might be ready to show something here. Will go forward and if gets back to best form will run a lot better than the $31 odds suggest.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 12 ADDICITIVE NATURE at around $3.20
Horse with some ability who has changed stables. Market is going to be the best guide here. Can race handy, but not sure how forward he will be first up in this. On his best form would be right in this, but 1st up, into a pretty competitive sprint where there are a few winning chances think the odds on offer represent poor value. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
ALL UP PLACE:
PLACE Race 3: 12-NOTIO
PLACE Race 6: 7-MRS GARDENIA
PLACE Race 7: 2-PEDRENA
PLACE Race 8: 12-SNIPFIT
We have already mentioned Race 3: 12-NOTIO and he should be a pretty good kick off to a Poor Manís Quaddie. The Race 6: 7-MRS GARDENIA should be a pretty safe place bet, the Race 7: 2-PEDRENA is a class mare who will run on late and then enjoy in the last as the Race 8: 12-SNIPFIT goes forward and if we get some rain he might stick on pretty well. Looking at about $400 for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: 2-VALAC, 5-STEEL PRINCE, 1-AL HARAM
Race 2: 13-YULONG METEOR, 8-GHEEDAA, 1-REAL SUCCESS
Race 3: 12-NOTIO, 7-FIFTY STARS, 8-SO FAR SKOOL
Race 4: 6-AL GALAYEL, 1-A SHIN ROOK, 8-ADDISON
Race 5: 1-WRITTEN BY, 5-SMART ELISSIM, 4-TONY NICCONI
Race 6: 7-MRS GARDENIA, 2-OREGONíS DAY, 9-TEMPLE OF BEL
Race 7: 2-PEDRENA, 3-TREKKING, 10-OAK DOOR
Race 8: 10-LEGALE, 3-LUCKY FOR ALL, 12-SNIPFIT