|CAULFIELD : BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES - 16th October 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 10M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We had a great day of racing on Saturday for the Caulfield Guineas with the track racing incredibly fairly, they could lead and win or run on and win. So itís a big surprise to see the rail go out 10M for this meeting, we have records for the last 20 years and this is the first time this has happened. The reasoning being to protect the inside going with the rail going back to TRUE for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. We would have said based on the racing pattern on Saturday the track was going to wear on the inside coming into Weds and favour those running on, but itís a bit hard to tell now with the rail going out so far. There is also a fair bit of rain forecast, so expect a track downgrade and expect they will spread on the home turn as the day progresses and it may be hard to lead and win and the inside may be off later in the day. But there are lots of variables and bit hard to predict at this stage.
The Blue Sapphire seems to have come up quite strong this year, we have had small fields and a super short priced favourite a few times in recent years. There is a bit of depth to this field and you could make a case for quite a few of these runners. The way the track is racing is going to be crucial for sorting these out, but we are assuming at the moment there will be rain and they will be winning running on OK and the inside may be off a little. The speed is genuine but not overly fast for a 3YO 1200M race and quite a few of the main chances are backmarkers. The 11-ANAHEED should lead from the inside barrier, with the 4-CONDOíS EXPPRESS, 1-DUBIOUS and 8-VIKING WARRIOR pushing forward and not sure if they go forward or not on the 5-BARCALI from a tricky outside barrier. Think you have to rate the 14-BROOKLYN HUSTLE on top here, he has that X factor about him, and probably wins last start if he gets out earlier, just he will need them to be running on OK and he is probably the sort of horse who either wins impressively, or doesnít place. The value runner is the
9-EXCESS FUNDS who showed promise early and flopped badly here two starts back, but had backing last start at Flemington and didnít seem to appreciate racing tight inside horses on the rail when looked like he had a bit to give, drawn out here and swooping looks to suit. Strong chance also to the 10-EXHILIRATES, who was super impressive winning here three starts back and was probably just beaten by the inside barrier at MV last start, another who drops back and runs home late. Respect for the 4-CONDOíS EXPRESS who looks to get the perfect on speed run here, and the best roughie is probably the 5-BARCALI who looks well over the odds, just a matter of where he gets in the run from an outside barrier. Probably not a race we really want to have a serious bet in, maybe just a wide quinella on these five chances.
It is great to see the Coogny returned to the Wednesday meeting which really needed a bit of a boost and even better returned to being a qualifying race for the Caulfield Cup! Feel like we are back to the good old 1990s! This program has been very light on the last few years, but looks a lot better this year, in particular the mares 1600M race is the strongest we can remember, and there are quite a few solid each way chances we have spotted.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 1-EXEMPLAR $4 EW
The Williams stable have had a very lean spring and quite a few of their runners seem to be struggling for form. Not quite sure if the form around this one is that strong, but he chased hard here two starts back and then closed really well late at Mornington when the leader/winner pinched a break on them. Has to carry top weight, and is up considerably in weight for a drop in class, but he is more conditioned to the 2400M than most of these and think looks a safe each way bet at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-BIANCO NUOVO $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 2: 7-BIANCO NUOVO#11-TYSONIC, 12-TAVISTOCK DANCER x $4 = 200%
Smallish field and this one gets a soft lead or on pace sit early in the day. Has good career stats, proven over the distance and should be fitter for the two runs in, in particular the last run where he stuck on well on speed. Back straight out at around $7 and instead of backing each way save on the quinella with two talented, but unreliable backmarkers in the 11-TYSONIC, 12-TAVISTOCK DANCER who are both well in the betting market and look ready to do something, just often they donít show their best unless the speed is on and they can run on OK.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-RECKONING $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 6-RECKONING, 8-SERIOUS LIASON x $2 = 200%
Pretty even field here and hard to line them all up, but we are quite keen on this one at around $11. He was good here two starts back when up in grade off a maiden win, and then last start he had to work really hard to get across to the lead from an outside barrier, the leader then set a ridiculous tempo in front and he hit the lead about 200M out but was finished after doing so much work. Gets a much softer run on speed here today and probably plenty of improvement to come with only 3 career starts. Very keen each way and save on the quinella with the 8-SERIOUS LIASON who is also racing well in harder company.
QUINELLA: Race 7: 4,5,9,10,14 x $5 boxed = 50%
The main race looks pretty even and lots of winning chances, so just taking the soft option and boxing them all up in a quinella. Mainly looking for the 5-BARCALI or 9-EXCESS FUNDS to get into the finish here and the quinella should pay OK in an even betting race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 3-KIWIA $3 EW
The Coogny looks to have plenty of winning chances, but really this one is better than most of these on his best form and won the Ballarat Cup last year. Fitter for the 2 runs back in and should be ready to do something today out to the 2000M. Will need the speed on, a bit of rain, and for them to be running on, but think we should get conditions to suits. Gets a nice weight drop, and best of all, has excellent track and distance stats, having won 3 times from 7 starts here at Caulfield. Looks a really good rough chance at around $16 and expect might get backed so maybe have a bet before race day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 1-CONSENSUS $4 EW
Official flagged as best roughie, but also stands out to us as one of the better bets of the day. Proven classy mare at this level, fitter for the 3 runs in, last start at MV was caught out 3 wide the entire trip, hit the lead on the turn and just faded on the run to not be beaten far at all. Should have a lot of improvement to come as was stepping up in distance from the 1200M to 1600M there and should also get across from an outside barrier and sit just off the speed in this race. Looks a great roughie bet in the last at around $20 and donít think there is as much between her and the favourite the 4-RONDINELLA as the market suggests.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 4-ZOUSTYLE at around $2.40
We have largely managed to avoid getting whacked by a Lay of the Day this spring, so letís be a little braver and take a hit if we get it wrong. This one was really good leading here last start and was only just grabbed on the line but really there isnít much between him and the (6) and (9) on form from that race, but there is in the betting. Expect there to be a bit more pressure up front today and mainly we are avoiding him till we see how the track is racing, drawn inside and leading and suspect they may be winning running on if the rain comes. If they are leading and winning we are totally screwed, but letís see how we go.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a slot purchase for The Everest.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 3: 11-SINGLE HANDED
PLACE: Race 5: 6-COME ON CARL
PLACE: Race 6: 9-PARSIFAL
PLACE: Race 8: 1-CONSENSUS
Smallish fields and some good each way bets so seems like a good day to try a Poor Manís Quaddie. In the Coogny the other value runner is the lightly raced 11-SINGLE HANDED who has good career stats, is fit and in form and should sit on speed. The Race 5: 6-COME ON CARL will lead in a small field and will appreciate some rain, the Race 6: 9-PARSIFAL is fit and racing consistently and come home on our best roughie for value in the Race 8: 1-CONSENSUS. Looking at a very tasty $600 for a $5 outlay if you need some afternoon entertainment whilst at work.
Race 1: 1-EXEMPLAR, 5-EYGPTIAN GOLD, 3-GAYTARI
Race 2: 7-BIANCO NUOVO, 11-TYSONIC, 12-TAVISTOCK DANCER
Race 3: 3-KIWIA, 11-SINGLE HANDED, 6-WOLFE
Race 4: 6-RECKONING, 8-SERIOUS LIASON, 5-OSCAR BOY
Race 5: 1-BRAVO TANGO, 6-COME ON CARL, 3-BAD WOLF
Race 6: 9-PARSIFAL, 6-HAUNTED, 5-REYKJAVIK
Race 7: 14-BROOKLYN HUSTLE, 9-EXCESS FUNDS, 10-EXHILIRATES
Race 8: 6-FIDELIA, 1-CONSENSUS, 9-SNOGGING