|CAULFIELD: BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES – 14th October 2020|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 10M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Bouncing off a fantastic Caulfield Guineas result into a fairly mediocre Caulfield mid-week where the feature Blue Sapphire Stakes has ended only in a field of three runners. Note that the rail positioning has changed in the last few years, instead of gradually moving the rail out during the week, the rail goes OUT 10M here so it can go back in for Caulfield Cup Day. With the rail well out the racing pattern often favours those racing on the speed, especially with smallish fields. Few showers around but track should remain a firm GOOD(4).
In the feature Blue Sapphire Stakes, the field of three of course makes it a very interesting tactical race. Really whatever jumps and leads here probably wins, and often jockeys make the mistake in small fields of going too slow on leaders and being under pressure on the turn, rather than free rolling in front with no pressure and letting the others chase. Ridden to a clear lead today the 2-ANDERS should win easily, the 3-RANTING has a lot of ability and is one we have been following so will chase hard and to us the jury is out on how well the Blue Diamond winner 1-HANSEATIC has come up (although maybe he reserves his best form for races with “Blue” in the title?). Trifecta of 2-3-1 but will be a no bet race.
Small fields and will be betting moderately today to lock in the profits from Saturday, so punting plan is mainly straight out win bets with a saver in most races and most of those well in the market should fight out these races, especially on the first half of the program. Doesn’t look to be that much value in the exotics on paper. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 4-WILLIAM THOMAS $6 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 6: 4-WILLIAM THOMAS#5-SANSOM, 3-CORUSCATE x $3 = 150%
Very talented sprinter when right and was an eye catching run from last here last start. Won four times here and seems to keep his best form for Caulfield. Was SCR from Saturday from a Group 2 to be kept for this easer Listed race and strikes a very winnable race here. Will drop out, so will need them to set a genuine speed and for runners to be running on and winning OK, but is drawn out to swoop down the middle of the track which is his preferred racing pattern. Back straight out at around $4.50 which looks good value and save with a quinella on the two on-pacers 5-SANSOM, 3-CORUSCATE who are the main dangers.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-IRISH FLAME $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 4-IRISH FLAME#3,6,10 x $3 = 100%
This poor fella has been racing so consistently and deserves a win – was absolutely home and hosed for all money last start and had kicked clear at the 200M before one came out of nowhere with a jet pack and ran him down. Should still have further improvement to come with that run over 2000M and has been consistently in the finish at every start this time in. Good barrier and should be able to box-seat here in a race where there doesn’t seem to be that much speed. Back each way at around $6 and save on a quinella with the talented 2-GAMAY who seems to be returning to her best form, the frustrating 10-VEGAS KNIGHT who will hopefully finally win another race eventually, and the improver here is probably the 6-ROYAL CROWN running on late.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 5-MISSILE MANTRA $4 EW
Frustrating mare who has talent, but her drop back racing style does her no favours. Fitter for the 3 runs in and was really good flashing home out wide last start at Flemington, and think that is a sign she is just about to live up to some of her potential. This is one of the few races where there looks to be a genuine tempo and like that she is drawn out as she is a drop back and run on down the outside type house. Think she is going to finally step up today, so each way at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-KAZIO $6 EW
This is our main bet of the day in the last race, so be patient. Really consistent type, who just struggles to run out a strong 1600M which is the distance he most often runs over – but his 1400M record is outstanding – 12 starts for 11 placings. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and the fast speed and run-on pattern suited last start at MV. Firm track suits and looks ready to do something now up in distance and he has a pretty impressive turn of foot in these sorts of races. Not too fussed about the outside barrier as he needs to swoop down the outside and there looks to be enough speed here for him to do that. Confident each way bet in the last at around $10 in a pretty open race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 12-NERVE NOT VERVE $2.50 EW
This is actually pretty much the longest priced runner on the whole program – but we don’t think she is without a chance. She is a tough, on-speed mare who is probably better off over 2000M and on a wet track, but still think she is some rough chance in this. Up in class against these, and not suited under this weight scale, but her career stats aren’t too bad and she is fitter for the two runs in and looks ready to do something today. Last start she hit the lead about 100M out but just finished on the run under tough conditions, and if they go forward here from an outside barrier and there isn’t too much pressure up front she is probably going to run a much, much better race than the $101 odds suggest. Have something each way now as think these odds are wrong and she is more like a $25 chance.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 8-CADRE DU NOIR at around $4
Super impressive winning at Sandown two starts back and then beaten short priced favourite when taken to Sydney last start and ridden with a sit instead of leading and showed no turn of foot. Looks a solid, on-pace stayer, but there seems to be an awful lot of speed in this race with the 4-MASTER SHUHOOD, 5-EUREKA STREET and 11-LOFTY HEIGHTS going forward and think that is going to set the race up for the backmarkers here. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to hire a protective plastic bubble to roll around Caulfield in.
QUADDIE: Races 5,6,7,8: 1,2,3,7,12 / 4 / 1,5,7,8,12 / 6,9 x $5 = 10%
Let’s try and turn $5 into a quaddie on a day where there is unlikely to be that much value around in some of the races. The first leg does feature the impressive last start winner and short priced favourite the 7-SARACEN KNIGHT, but these staying races are often more open than they seem and with a strong tempo likely it is worth putting in the strong finishers like the 2-MASAFF, 12-SUPER GIRL and for a bit of value to kick us off the proven tough stayers the 1-SIN TO WIN and 3-GOOD IDEA. Bite the bullet and go one out on the best bet of the day on the strong finishing Race 6: 4-WILLIAM THOMAS and search for a value winner in the third leg which is the most open race of the day with the three selections 5-MISSILE MANTRA, 8-SOVEREIGN AWARD, 12-NERVE NOT VERVE, the under rated strong finishing 7-ONE MORE TRY, and the tough on-pacer 1-SPANISH REEF who won this race last year. Despite the last race being fairly open we are pretty confident one of the two main chances the 6-KAZIO, 9-LEGIONNAIRE wins. Probably not going to be a huge dividend, but if we can get some $10 chances up quaddie probably pays $2000 or so.
Race 1: 3-CELESTIAL SOL, 1-TANKER, 9-MISS INBETWEEN
Race 2: 3-AL GALAYEL, 6-DJANGO FREEMAN, 1-HARLEM
Race 3: 4-IRISH FLAME, 3-GAMAY, 10-VEGAS KNIGHT
Race 4: 2-ANDERS, 3-RANTING, 1-HANSEATIC
Race 5: 7-SARACEN KNIGHT, 2-MASAFF, 12-SUPER GIRL
Race 6: 4-WILLIAM THOMAS, 5-SANSOM, 3-CORUSCATE
Race 7: 5-MISSILE MANTRA, 8-SOVEREIGN AWARD, 12-NERVE NOT VERVE
Race 8: 6-KAZIO, 9-LEGIONNAIRE, 14-LA TIGERESA