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- Deposit $50 = $100 Free Bet |
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| CAULFIELD : C.F.Orr Stakes - 12th February 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FEW SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): The track has recovered from the major deluge last weekend, and there is some rain about heading towards Sat. Track is probably going to be heading toward the worse side of DEAD maybe even SLOW if we get substantial rain. With the meeting cancelled last weekend, the track should be in good order with the rail back to the TRUE. Note that the rail for the two prior meetings 26/01/2011 OUT6M, 08/01/2001 OUT 3M which means the inside section of the track has not been raced on for some time. Maybe watch out for those on pace early , but so often at Caulfield on wet tracks the track cuts up and they come off the rails later in the day. Nine races with decent sized fields and plenty of quality horses returning makes for a pretty good day’s racing. Sure to be some value around in the trifectas and first fours with silly long shots running out of their skin 1st up into the placings. Bit dubious about some more favoured runners, in particular, RACE 3 : 4-ÉCLAIR MYSTIC, RACE 5:1-ONE LAST DANCE and even RACE 9:10-VARENNA MISS all in big fields with plenty of decent quality opposition, so we have gone for some value in most races. RESULTS : Track plays evenly, probably does just favour those racing on speed who are hard to run though, though a few manage to win coming out wide. Tips go along OK, but it's mainly favourites winning. BEST BET : Race 7: 14-TYPHOON TRACY 1st W=$2.10 QUINELLA : Race 7: 14-TYPHOON TRACY, 8-DOUBTFUL JACK x $5 14-TYPHOON TRACY 1st W=$2.10, X QUINELLA : Race 7: 14-TYPHOON TRACY, 9-MOUDRE x $5 14-TYPHOON TRACY 1st W=$2.10, X Outstanding mare who finally gets into a suitable race after being set for more lofty targets over spring. With race fitness on her side and sitting on speed in a moderate tempo race you would think this race is hers for the taking, and hopefully she might be back able odds coming off a few losses in a big open class fields. Just slight niggling doubt that she has been beaten a few times in these sort of races – but she is always in the finish, so maybe safer to back her in quinellas. Expect 8-DOUBTFUL JACK to prove today he is not just a Flem horse and the on pacers might fight this race out. Other danger is 9-MOUDRE who suspect is going to step up a level this time in to be a WFA horse. Should still be value in the quinellas with the favourite in a big field. RESULTS : Best bet of the day gets home - only just though. Does start very short and unfortunately we cannot snare the quinella. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 8-MY BENTLEY $7 EW SCR $14 Under rated stayer and very professional race horse who puts himself into the race at the right time. Fitter for the 2 runs in, is dropping back to the 1600M today, but many of these are either 1st up or unproved past 1400M. Best form is over longer, but 1600M form is OK and note that he was scratched from a weaker 1800M race mid week to go around in this. Looks well placed here and worth something each way at around $15. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 1-CATAPULTED $6 WIN 1st W=$3.80 = 6 x 3.8 = $22.80 QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-CATAPULTED, 6-BROKEN x $3 SCR $3 QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-CATAPULTED, 10-ACORNS x $3 1-CATAPULTED 1st W=$3.80, X QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-CATAPULTED, 13-SOLAR CHARGED x $3 1-CATAPULTED 1st W=$3.80, 3rd 13-SOLAR CHARGED W=$5.50 On 1st glance doesn’t look very well suited in this race – has top weight, smart field of sprinters. But his two runs over spring behind HAY LIST when he was flying were top notch and he was unlucky to run into a freak sprinter peaking. Lots of speed in this race and suspect you want to be on something sitting off them and finishing on – and this one should be in the perfect position. Five 1st up runs for 3 wins and 2 seconds so he absolutely flies 1st up. Currently around $5, but suspect he will drift out in the market on the day. Back to win, and save on quinellas with the two other strong finishers – the (6),(10 and the best of the on pacers the (13). RESULTS : Sheesh this one is a pretty good horse. In a a bit of strife at the top of the straight, but gets clear sitting off the pace and runs over the top of them. BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 12-LABELLA ROO $3 EW X Tough open field in the last race of the day so you might as well have a go at something at odds. This one has been racing very well, drawn lovely barrier and is a swooper and you think the track will cut up and they will be winning down the middle of the track by the last race. 1200M is probably the query – yet to win past 1100M, but look closely at the form and she has only had the 1 run over the 1200M anyway – and ran 3rd. Looks good value at around $25. LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 9:10-VARENNA MISS at around $3.50 2nd W=$4.80 4 starts for 3 wins, has a major spruik on her and has started extremely short when wining her 1st 3 races. But really, she only just held on in a field of 6 last start and start before that did somehow manage to win when did not handle the heavy track. She has only just fell in last 2 runs and is going to go around short here, in a capacity field, drawn inside barrier and they will probably be winning coming down the middle of the track at the end of the day and good chance something will come out 1st up and run above its ability. Happy to risk. RESULTS : Gets perfect run but is luckily (for us) beaten by a pretty smart one. Pretty solid performance though and she is rapidly improving and won't be laying her again. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA : ROVING BANKER Race 6: 11-STORM BURST # 4,5,7,12,17 x $5 = 8.33% X Silly ol’ race in Race 6 and in a capacity and very even field there is sure to be a big trifecta and first four dividend. The (11) is lightly raced with a bit of upside and probably wasn’t the best ride in the world last start when jockey seemed to leave it a little late. Go for some value – take a roving banker trifecta (which means the (11) has to run a place, and the other selections fill the other placings), and throw in some value runners as sure to be a decent dividend. Swap in the (6) if the (17) does not get a run which is an emergency. RESULTS : No luck here, but the Tri does pay $6000 so was the ideal race to have a crack at. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $39.80 NET : $-10.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-APENNINE, 3-GAIL, 5-COMOCEAN Race 2: 8-MY BENTLEY, 10-ITS PRINCE, 13-LORD PYRUS Race 3: 7-UNDER THE EIFFEL, 5-DUSTY STAR, 6-SERVANT Race 4: 1-SEPOY, 4-RUNNING TALL, 10-HUEGILL Race 5: 5-HOLDONTOYAHORSES, 8-ANEVAY, 12-MISTAKENLY Race 6: 11-STORM BURST, 12-BOOKLET, 17-IRIDESCENTE, 5-ZELSNITZ Race 7: 14-TYPHOON TRACY, 8-DOUBTFUL JACK, 9-MOUDRE Race 8: 1-CATAPULTED, 6-BROKEN 10-ACORNS Race 9: 12-LABELLA ROO, 9-DAS MACHEN, 16-MID SUMMER MUSIC |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-APENNINE 3-GAIL SCR 5-COMOCEAN 2nd W=$4.40 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-MY BENTLEY SCR 10-ITS PRINCE 3rd W=$8.40 13-LORD PYRUS 1st W=$4.30 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-UNDER THE EIFFEL 2nd W=$2.50 5-DUSTY STAR 1st W=$6.00 6-SERVANT Quinella : $7.70 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.30 4-RUNNING TALL 2nd W=$16.80 10-HUEGILL 3rd W=$16.70 Quinella : $5.50 Trifecta : $66.60 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-HOLDONTOYAHORSES 8-ANEVAY SCR 12-MISTAKENLY |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-STORM BURST 12-BOOKLET 5-ZELSNITZ |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-TYPHOON TRACY 1st W=$2.10 8-DOUBTFUL JACK 9-MOUDRE |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-CATAPULTED 1st W=$3.80 6-BROKEN SCR 10-ACORNS |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-LABELLA ROO 9-DAS MACHEN 3rd W=$12.30 16-MID SUMMER MUSIC |
| RACE 7: C.F.ORR STAKES 1400M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 14-TYPHOON TRACY 1st W=$2.10 8-DOUBTFUL JACK 9-MOUDRE |
| Others: 3 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 7-DANZYLUM, 14-TYPHOON TRACY Handy : 3-HEART OF DREAMS, 4-LUEN YAT FOREVER (wide), 8-DOUBTFUL JACK Back : 1-ZIPPING, 2-SHOCKING, 5-PRECEDENCE, 6-TRUSTING, 9-MOUDRE, 10-LINTON, 11-KUTCHINSKY, 12-SPACECRAFT, 13-REBEL SOLDIER, 15-FAINT PERFUME, 16-ORTENSIA Chances: 3-HEART OF DREAMS hasn’t quite gone onto the great heights that were promised as a youngster. Looks like he is best suited around a mile, preferably on a dry track. Just doesn’t look like he is up to winning one of the bigger races, but more than capable of picking up one of the early Spring/Autumn WFA races with some race fitness on his side whilst the others are doing warm up laps. Even effort 1st up when was never going to be suited around MV at night over the sprint trip. Caulfield record is excellent, track probably still be firm enough for him here, drawn an inside barrier and should be able to position on the speed in a race with not a lot of pace. Should put himself into the finish and this looks his type of race. Chance. 2nd W=$12.90 8-DOUBTFUL JACK put in a purple patch of Flem tear away wins winter into spring last year and looked like he could be anything – absolutely slaughtered OK opposition in those wins. Then stepped out in the Rupert Clarke and failed to do much and the jockey said “better suited to Flemington and to rain affected tracks” and the punters said “ouch, ouch, hurties”. Failed to show up in the Epsom as well but maybe be prepared to forgive those last 2 runs end of last spring as he was probably past his best. Given a nice break, snuck down to Tas for a 1st up win. In winning form, has race fitness on his side, drawn inside and will race on pace, and probably the wetter the better for this one. Strong chance today. 9-MOUDRE is one that we suspect is going to step up and be a top liner in WFA races. Spent most of last spring chasing Cup starts which never came, expect improvement this campaign when they can set their own campaign and do their own thing. Lightly raced, shows a stack of ability, will handle it wet if the rain comes, and likely to go very well fresh. Put in some dominant fresh wins at the start of last spring. Drawn well and although will drop back think he has the sprint to put himself into the finish in WFA races. Just a question of how much speed and pressure there is here, but suspect he is going to go pretty well. Chance. 14-TYPHOON TRACY is one of the best horses in Australia at the moment and has unusually (for her) not a won a race now in her last 6 starts. Initially set for the Cox Plate last spring, was competitive against the males, but that was always going to be a task. Swapped back to her own sex unfortunately she struck a bog track which really isn’t her thing – she still tried very hard though – which is her thing. She does always put in and try her best. 1st up this time in was never going to be really suited at MV, under lights , in a sprint race which so often favours those racing on pace. She sat off them, loomed up and chased really hard but just couldn’t get there in time. Solid effort. Really this looks her race today, 1400M – and she is vulnerable past 1600M, WFA field with not much speed and she can lob from a middle barrier and sit outside the (7) and the (8) the other on pacers and run her own race. Plus she has had one run in over most of these. Guess the only slight query is that when she has come up against the open class WFA fields she has normally found one better. Her only wins in open class WFA have been in this race last year and in the Futurity when she did strike small and probably fairly weak fields. That’s the only niggling doubt. She is a winner though, a classy on pacer and she is well suited into this race today so is the one to beat. Seeing she has come off 2 short priced favourite beatings wonder if the bookies might be a little generous today as well? One to beat. 1st W=$2.10 Place: 4-LUEN YAT FOREVER is living the Australian dream, came over for the spring and decided to stick around. Thought he showed some promise in the Spring, his winning strike rate OS was excellent, wasn’t far off them in the Toorak, over raced and totally blew it in the Cox Plate, but really solid effort in the Emirates when he fought it out the entire length of the straight and probably hit the lead about 30M out. Suspect 1400M – 1600M is probably his go and wouldn’t be surprised if he does something fresh here today. Can race handy, but has drawn outside, so is probably going to get caught wide. Bit under rated we feel, going to start long odds so throw him into the trifectas and first fours as a value runner, don’t think he will be far away. Place. 12-SPACECRAFT showed a fair bit of potential as a 3YO, but was kept to the mile trips over the spring with a fair bit of success. Solid effort 1st up this time in when presented at the top of the straight and fought out the race strongly for the length of the straight. Probably is better ridden cold and likely to be ridden back here from outside barrier. Question is whether he is up to this under the WFA weight scale ? Fair bit of potential and ability just suspect he will find a few better today and the mile handicaps are going to be his bread and butter / pie and sauce . Place. 15-FAINT PERFUME was a star 3YO filly who turned into a great big 4YO floperoo – how often do you hear that story? Year after year is happens. Obviously she just didn’t come up last spring – bit surprised they persisted with her cause she really showed no form at any stage. Given a break good chance she could come back a different horse. Suspect she might actually be better as a come from behind miler than a stayer so interesting to see where they place her this Autumn. Well drawn, probably go OK fresh if she is her old self. Just want to make sure you get odds that reflect that her form is well – bloody ordinary. Place best. Sacking: 1-ZIPPING is a bloody beauty ripper fair dinkum old fashioned hard slog superstar. He just keeps going on – and on – and on – and in such a good way – his form is predictable, he steps up when you expect him to and he is one you are happy to back at short odds in the right race cause you just know he will give it his best shot. He form is starting to look legendary, winner of 4 Sandown Classics, placed in 3 Cox Plates, won an Australian Cup, a MV Cup, a Turnbull, placed in a Mackinnon, played football in the Under 19’s, cricket in the 1st 11, the list goes on and on. All with barely any hype or fanfare what so ever. Obviously back for another crack at the Australian Cup. Normally does take a run or two each time in – 1st up form isn’t the best, and was 1st up in this race last year with similar form and did nothing. Later on. 2-SHOCKING was going along so nicely all spring, seemed to step up a notch and everyone was touting him for the Melbourne Cup double. But come Cup week - with a couple of new smart ones on the scene, everyone deserted him in droves, and it was amazing to watch how far he drifted in the betting markets. He finished on pretty well here 1st up in the Spring in the Liston Stakes, and wasn’t quite right last Autumn when just OK in this race. Normally needs a few runs each time in to find best and just doesn’t get around the corner at Caulfield for some reason. He will run home OK, finish around 6th, so maybe next time. 5-PRECEDENCE was another who was heading nicely for the Cups all spring, till it got to Cup Week and we suddenly realised there were a few damm smart ones new on the scene. Usually takes a few runs to find form but did run a nice 2nd here 1st up last spring. Likely to drop well back and just don’t think they will go along fast enough in this for him to run into it. Passing. 6-TRUSTING has never lived up to the potential he showed as a 3YO. Keeps threatening to come out and go Whoosh in a big race – but just doesn’t measure up. Probably a bit more forward than many of these as took the trip over to WA at the end of spring. Fresh form is OK and is more than capable of winning this with a flashy 1st up run down the middle of the track on his best form. Just looking over his form though he does seem to go better in Sydney ? He will probably win an OK race one day, but think you are better off taking him on long term as he just doesn’t produce often enough. Risking. 7-DANZYLUM is a solid on pacer who doesn’t win out of turn. Racing very well at the moment, last win was a gimme though as only on pacer in a small field. Absolutely needs a firm track, so even a track the worse side of dead is an issue. Placed 8 from 13 Caulfield 1400M is pretty solid stats. Drawn well, has race fitness over these, in form, loves track and distance, inside going could be best place to be – but still just don’t like him ! He just doesn’t seem good enough to match it against the A graders at WFA. Definitely needs his own way in front and you would think the (14) probably takes him on here. Probably won’t be far away, but just can’t have him in this field, he has had over 60 starts and we know his ability and doesn’t cut it in this grade. Risking. 4th W=$15.50 10-LINTON is a lightly raced Williams runner who you get the impression is a long term project. Looked like he could be anything as a 3YO, then competitive, but without being a world beater during the spring – his spring was probably slightly disappointing. Started favourite in most of his runs, was thereabouts, but didn’t do any thing overly special. Probably going to see the best of him next spring. Wonder if the is having a real Autumn campaign ? or just a 2 run Williams style Autumn hit out – may be worth checking up. He has drawn barrier 1 here, big field, not a stack of pace, will drop back, think that means he is going to struggle to get into this race. Prefer place. 11-KUTCHINSKY is a lightly raced 3YO classic type horse who missed the spring so has had a long lay off. Had some trials to get him ready for this, but you would suspect might still need a run or two to really find his best. Passing. 13-REBEL SOLDIER is an import with only the 4 starts and pretty much impossible to line up into this. Watch the market as always, but just have to wait, and watch and see and hope it doesn’t knock off your pick. No 16-ORTENSIA put in a solid effort 1st up at MV when she chased home hard. Given a very light spring, with an international trip thrown in . Have to admit we struggle to quite work out this one – not sure what to do with her. Is she better off as a 1200M sprinter? Maintains a good win strike rate, but her best form was winter 2009 and whilst she has been competitive since then she really hasn’t been outstanding. Probably just prefer to go around her today and just see how she goes. Passing. 3rd W=$9.90 Summary: Just like the first WFA races of spring you want to look for those with some race fitness , with some form, and as always in early WFA races there is often very little speed so class horses racing on speed can be advantaged. Pace here should be even only with 7-DANZYLUM probably leading, 8-DOUBTFUL JACK pushing up and 14-TYPHOON TRACY siting outside these two and running her own race. Doesn’t look like there will be much pressure up front and good chance the on pacers will fight this out. Obviously 14-TYPHOON TRACY the one to beat, gets perfect 1400M on pace sit race today and really should win. Hopefully with a few losses in lead up runs, a big field she might even be backable odds. Just the slight niggling doubt that she has tried these sort of races a few times and always found one better. 8-DOUBTFUL JACK should get the perfect run here on pace and suspect he was past his best when taken away from Flem last campaign so might surprise and unleash his best. 9-MOUDRE is likely to step up this spring and capable of big run fresh. Probably worth playing with multiples in this race, take the 8,14 to win, and go wide in the placings as often something at silly odds will put in a huge run fresh and the dividends in these races are normally better than you would expect. One to risk: 7-DANZYLUM 4th W=$15.50 Roughie: 4-LUEN YAT FOREVER The Key: Early WFA races – slow tempo and on pace. RESULTS : 14-TYPHOON TRACY hangs on - just. To be honest thought she was a little lucky to win, she had absolutely everything going her way, perfect on pace sit, track was probably tending towards on pacers and she only just hung on. No surprise to see her retired, think she would have been competitive, but beaten more times than not if she continued to race against open age WFA. 3-HEART OF DREAMS runner up again and just always seems to find one better. 8-DOUBTFUL JACK unlucky and badly held up for runs at the top of the straight and worth following, especially back to Flem on a wet track. |
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