We had a lot of rain at the start of the week but this track is firming up nicely and they even had to water it on Friday to stop it getting too firm. Few showers around Saturday, but this track should stay in the GOOD range and may even firm up further if the sun comes out. With the rail OUT 6M keep an eye on those on-speed, especially if we get a sunny drying day.
Pretty decent betting program to end the spring with and we have found quite a few decent each way chances at around $10 so going to double up the bets for one last fling this spring. Might be some pretty decent exotics around, often these horses are at the end of their campaigns and fresh horses at odds can get into the finish.
This is our last race day for coverage for Spring Campaign 2025, but we will continue to post summary tips for key meetings over the break. Thank you everyone for the support, random Facebook likes and comments, and left-over chips. Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 8-VESTAS $10 WIN, QUINELLA 8-VESTAS#2,3,6 x $6 = 200%
This one has been racing extremely well and is just waiting for the right race to win. Flew home late 1st up on a track where the leaders were winning and again struck a leaders’ race at MV when again she came home well late. Fitter for the two runs in and SCR during Cup Week to avoid wet tracks and will get a dry track here. Just needs the speed on and for them to be able to run on and win and she should win at around $4. Back straight out and anchor in a quinella with the 3-POP AWARD who has an excellent record here and has been given a fresh-up, the roughie 6-MERRIGOLD who had no luck here last start and can sit handy today and the 2-AVIATRESS going forward from an outside barrier.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 2-EVAPORATE $10 WIN
Need to have an opinion in the feature race and we are happy to stick with this one who deserves to win a good race. Form this time in has been excellent, has been slowly away a few times and ended up in the wrong position but still ran extremely well, and never looked comfortable up in Sydney last start when he still ran on well behind a short-priced favourite. Small field means a slow start won’t be as much of an issue today and he can ping forward early here to either lead or sit handy. Back straight out at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-TIKEMYSON $6 EW, QUINELLA 2,5,6,10,16 x $10 = 100%
This one has been racing extremely well in the country and has struck a very winnable city race here. Proven over the 2400M and in-form, unlike many of these, and it was a really tough win last start when he was in a world of trouble held-up behind runners but was strong when the gaps came. Seems to be one on the way up and keen to back here each-way at around $10. Value box quinella here around the consistent 10-GATES, the under-rated trainer-jockey of 5-HAALAND on-speed, the 2-ALMA RISE who might be ready to do something now with three runs in and the proven 2400M horse 16-HIGHLAND GLORY.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-OPENING ADDRESS $6 EW
QUINELLA -OPENING ADDRESS, 11-SIGIRIYA ROCK, 6-CAVITY BAY boxed x $6 = 200%
Normally takes a few runs to find his best form each time in, and both runs this preparation have been good lobbing on-speed and fighting the race out well, including last race where they went too hard up-front. Runs out the 1700M well and some of these are a bit suspect once they get past the mile. Should go forward here and get the perfect sit behind the leader and be fighting this race out at the end. Back each-way at around $10 and box up a quinella with the 11-SIGIRIYA ROCK who is one on the way up off a good last start win and the value runner 6-CAVITY BAY who is also ready to do something today.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 7-BRAVE MISS $10 EW
This one has been racing extremely consistently this time in and this seems a fairly weak mares’ race today. Been in the finish last few starts and will run out a strong mile having been competitive over 2000M and more importantly she will settle handy here in a race with little speed. Really not convinced by the quality of the opposition here and she is consistent and in-form and should get the run of the race. This is the main bet of the day and one of the best bets we have seen for a while and keen to have something each-way here at around $8.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 4-KALEO $2 EW
Don’t be surprised to see an upset in the Sandown Guineas against the short-priced favourite with plenty of fresh up and coming horses in the race. This one has only had the two runs in and ended up right at the back of a big field from an outside barrier last start and wasn’t far behind a few of these who were also black bookers. Maybe just needs a more positive ride here from an inside barrier to avoid getting stuck behind horses, but last run was just as good as the others from that race who are right in the market here. Rough at around $16.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 15-QUICKAZ $2 WIN, $3 PLACE
The favourites are going to be hard to beat in this race, but this one has been racing well without much luck. Weaved through the field here two starts back to beat the rest of the field behind three smart ones who kicked clear, and then was held up for a run at a critical stage at MV when running into the race and not beaten far. Well drawn here and will settle just behind the speed and get the run of the race and may be able to poke into the finish late at around $51. More the place as she is up against some smart ones here.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 3-ROLL ON HIGH at around $3
This one ran into some form last start, but doesn’t have the best strike rate and has yet to prove herself over the 1600M. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into Spring Campaign 2025 redemption.
EARLY QUAD: Races 3,4,5,6: 1,3,6,7,11 / 4,6,10 / 7 / 2,3,6,8 x $5 = 8.33%
Going to take a cheeky Early Quaddie here with the Race 5: 7-BRAVE MISS one out who we are keen on, and hoping we can get some results away from the obvious in the other legs to blow out the dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 4,5,8,12,13 / 2,5 / 1,2,6,9,15 / 7,13,14,15 x $20 = 10%
Taking am ambitious first leg trying to get the short-priced favourite beaten, have to be brave in the second leg and plenty of value in the final two legs in open races and big fields.
Feature Race Preview: C.F.ORR STAKES 1400M GROUP 1
Small field for the transferred Group 1 race from the Autumn, but still plenty of interest here. Just a word of caution, all of these horses are at the end of their Spring Campaigns, most have already gone past their key targets and that can throw up a few surprise results. There doesn’t seem to be much speed here with the 7-VINROCK the most likely leader, and it is likely that even if the 2-EVAPORATE is slowly away again they will go forward and may even make an early move to go to the lead. Good chance for a leader to dominate here in a small field, especially if the track is favouring those on-speed.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-JIMMYSTAR has a stack of talent and he has been really excelling since being kept as a sprinter. Right in the finish at the top level every start this time in, and super patient ride last start on the rails to wait for the run and win at short odds. He has a sensational finishing burst, but just needs enough speed on to run on into the finish and for the track to be racing fairly. Won 4/5 here at Caulfield. Main danger is a slow tempo here and being at the end of his preparation and switching states. Hard to beat, but not sure about the odds on offer here.
2-EVAPORATE is one we have a lot of time for, and it’s just so unfortunate he has developed this bad habit of being slowly away. Took off early to go to the lead and win at Sandown and then looked to have the race in his keeping when just couldn’t run one down in the Toorak. Last start in Sydney was excellent, he was well back and not racing cleanly going in the other direction and he still ran home extremely well behind one of the best horses in the land. He is more versatile than most of these, he may be slowly away but good chance they can go forward early and go to the lead here and if they do he is going to be very hard to beat – and he deserves to win a good race. Strong chance.
3-BOSUSTOW was good down the Flemington straight last start and he is much better off going forward to sit handy around a turning track. Been building up to a win this time in, but has hit some pretty smart ones at WFA here and doubt he is up to them. Place best.
4-PINSTRIPED hasn’t had much success this time in, but he is actually a pretty decent rough chance here. Bit hard to catch him on his best form, but the firm track suits and think he is actually racing much better than the form guide suggests. Wasn’t beaten far here in the Rupert Clarke (giving the winner 4kgs), fair run in Toorak when took a while to get into clear running, and then didn’t mind the run at MV when he had to go wide and early on a track where the inside was the better going. Would be magnificent for jockey Heffel to win a Group 1. Probably not racing well enough, but he is a knock out chance here if the race is run to suit. Rough.
5-ANGEL CAPITAL has been treading water through spring waiting for the right race after being hopelessly unlucky here in the Rupert Clarke where he definitely should have won, and then weaving through the pack nicely at the end of the Everest. Firm track Caulfield and 1400M are his go, but also a bit wary about horses switching campaigns to the Everest. He has a great finishing sprint and will get a clear crack at them today. Strong chance.
6-MIGHTY ULYSSES is going around for the participation ribbon here and hasn’t shown any form for some time now. Last win was here this time last year on a messy wet track where they went too hard in front and he scooted home, and he is 2nd up and fresher into this up against a lot of horses who are at the end of the campaigns. Form isn’t good enough though. Passing.
7-VINROCK gets in with the light weight as a 3YO but he is another who is going on past his main spring target in the Caulfield Guineas. Slowly away in the Stutt Stakes and his on-speed form either side of that looks pretty good. He is the clear leader here and big plus if the track ends up favouring those on-speed. When he gets his own way in front he is pretty hard to run down. Watch the market on this one to see if they think he has what it takes against these at WFA. Rough.
Summary:
Tactics and how the track is racing is going to be key here and don’t be surprised to see an upset result in this race. We are going to put the 2-EVAPORATE on top, he has just been racing so well and the smaller field will mean a slow start won’t have as much impact, and he is more tactically versatile than most of these. The 5-ANGEL CAPITAL sprinting hard late and the fast finishing the 1-JIMMYSTAR the obvious dangers and there probably isn’t much between these here coming into this race. Best roughie is the 4-PINSTRIPED who is exactly the sort of horse to cause an upset in this sort of race.
Race 1: 10-SEA POEM, 2-FISSION, 13-LEGACY BAY
Race 2: 6-TIKEMYSON, 10-GATES, 5-HAALAND
Race 3: 3-OPENING ADDRESS, 11-SIGIRIYA ROCK, 6-CAVITY BAY
Race 4: 4-HEDGED, 6-BEAST MODE, 10-BOSTON ROCKS
Race 5: 7-BRAVE MISS, 8-PONDALOWIE, 9-BLINDEDBYTHELIGHT
Race 6: 8-VESTAS, 3-POP AWARD, 6-MERRIGOLD
Race 7: 4-KALEO, 12-SHEZA ALIBI, 5-TAGLINE
Race 8: 2-EVAPORATE, 5-ANGEL CAPITAL, 1-JIMMYSTAR
Race 9: 2-INKARUNA, 1-MY GLADIOLA, 15-QUICKAZ
Race 10: 13-SPIONE, 7-TAKEN, 14-SOMEWHERE
