|MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES - 20th Aug 2016|
|Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Welcome to the Turf Deli Mini Spring Campaign 2016. This year we are going to be running a mini cut down version, so we will just be posting tips and suggested bets on Facebook and on the website. There will be no newsletter mail outs and no detailed form preview.
Rail is TRUE for MV tomorrow which normally means they can run on and win OK, but just keep an eye on the racing pattern given there has been issues with this track. Also keep an eye on the weather with a fair bit of rain forecast, so there is a good chance we will be looking at a genuine wet track.
As always with MV we have a program with quite a few short priced favourites, but we will try and find a bit more value in the suggested bets.
BEST BET: Race 7: 9-PILOTE DíESSAI
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 9-PILOTE DíESSAI / 5-ONPICALO / 2,3,6,10,12 x $5 = 100%
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 9-PILOTE DíESSAI / 2,3,6,10,12 / 5-ONPICALO x $5 = 100%
Lightly raced import with a bit of a spruik on it and has shown plenty in two Australian starts so far. Last start was working home well and looks to be one on the way up. Wet track wonít be an issue and the extra distance should suit. Main issue is he is going to start very, very short, around $2. So instead of backing straight out to win letís try and earn a bigger dividend with a trifecta. The other key runner is the mud loving front runner 5-ONPICALO who flopped on a dry track over further last start, but is very hard to beat when left alone in front on a wet track around MV and gets in with a light weight. In a field with lots of drop back stayers he should be in the finish, so anchor and rotate him through the placings and the value will come when one of the stayers puts in a good run fresh to fill in the other placing.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-CATCH A FIRE $3 EW
One with a bit of talent that we have not seen the best of yet and hasnít had the best of luck in a few of his races. 1st up here, but has won at MV before and will be suited drawn out and running on with a genuine speed. Each way at around $6
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-ARIAZ $5 EW
Was very impressive winning at debut and then in the finish in a feature race in Adelaide when short priced favourite. Had a break and should have improved and will be suited here running on in a race with a fair bit of speed. Unknown on wet tracks, but looks a solid each way bet at around $7 and surprised at the odds on offer as he has shown more than many of these.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-FAST CASH $4 EW
Sprinter with a fair bit of talent, but can be very hard to catch and does tend to drop too far back and run on too late often. Eye catching finishing burst 1st up down the straight over 1000M and should be much better suited here out to 1200M with solid wet track and MV form. Donít worry too much about the outside barrier, he is going to drop back last anyway, and there is a lot of speed in this race so as long as the track pattern allows them to run on OK should be in the finish at around $8.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-PRIMA $3 EW
Has been competitive in these sort of races before at this level and should be fitter for the 3 runs back in from a spell. Led all the way to win at Sandown last start and should be able to find the lead again here and there mightnít be much pressure up front with a few of these queries at the distance. Looks a very generous rough chance at around $25 leading with an light weight apprentice claim.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 7-GENERAL TRUCE $2.50 EW
Old timer who can still put in a run now and then and thought he stuck it out quite well in the finish last start in the Monash. Best recent form has been over the 1000M, handles it wet and is suited sitting off the fast speed here and launching late. Might run better than expected at around $21.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 13-SEBRING SUN at around $6
Former promising youngster who his having first start for a new stable that can produce miracles when required. But his recent form is shocking, with an 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th in his last 4 starts, all on wet tracks and is up against a decent quality field here. Looks well under the odds based on recent form.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 8,9 : 5,7,14 / 4,10,15,17,18 x $5 = 33%
The last two races are quite open so if there is an upset result the running double dividend should blow out nicely. Take the selections in the first leg and hope the value top pick the 14-VIDDORA or the roughie 7-GENERAL TRUCE gets up and then hope for some value in the 2nd leg with the likes of 10-FAST CASH or 17-JUST MAGICAL.
Race 1: 3-BLACK TOMAHAWK, 1-AU REVOIR, 6-BAYANOVA
Race 2: 4-MISS DENNI, 7-DISTANT ROCK, 9-GRAND DREAMER
Race 3: 4-CATCH A FIRE, 9-FOREIGN AFFAIR, 2-FRENCH EMOTION
Race 4: 4-ARIAZ, 1-ZAMZAM, 5-MOTOWN LIL
Race 5: 8-KENíS DREAM, 3-DAM READY, 7-VERSTAPPEN
Race 6: 8-YULONG BABY, 11-PRIMA, 4-TOOLEYBUC KID
Race 7: 9-PILOTE DíESSAI, 5-ONPICALO, 12-PEMBERLEY
Race 8: 14-VIDDORA, 5-HEATHERLY, 7-GENERAL TRUCE
Race 9: 10-FAST CASH, 18-MAGICUS, 17-JUST MAGICAL