|MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES - 26th Aug 2017|
|Track: SOFT(6) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Fine weather heading into the weekend and track is currently a SOFT(6), so should improve a little but retain some give as MV doesn’t seem to dry out as quickly as other tracks. Rail is TRUE and that normally means runners on and swoopers are favoured, but there is some talk of the inside ground being a bit firmer. Suspect they will still be running on and winning later in the day though.
Found some of these races a little tricky often with a lot of horses resuming and a lot of out of form horses it can be a bit easy to fall into the trap of just narrowing the chances down to the same few horses as everyone else. Watch the markets closely with so many fresh horses on the scene to see if those in the know are forking out their punting cash.
We got off to an inglorious start last week with a Betting Portfolio wipe out and the Lay of the Day winning. Punting wise there wasn’t much leaping out of the form guide this week, but as always we will throw together a set of suggested bets for Saturday afternoon amusement. Keen to see HARLOW GOLD resume who we think could be a major player come Caulfield Cup time.
BEST BET: Race 4: 19-REBELLIOUS LORD (emerg) $10 WIN
Super promising type who is struggling to get into fields because of low prize money. Has been well backed his last two starts and was held up for runs 2 starts back, and then was up in distance again last start when right in the finish. We have stayed off till now, despite the spruik, but really keen to get on today with the 3 runs in and the 1600M run this time in. Looks super ready to win. Main danger is the promising NZ import the (12), but think it is under the odds at a very short price and much prefer to be on this one. Drawn wide, but can go forward here in a race with not much speed. Main challenge is going to be getting into the field as 4th emergency – currently we just need one more scratching. Confident straight out bet at around $3.20
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-CISMONTAINE $4 EW
Improving stayer who has been racing really well. Two starts back was totally slaughtered racing out to a big lead into a strong head wind and faded. Last start at Sandown led and kicked and fought on strongly carrying 61kgs and just headed by one with a 7kgs weight pull. Small field here and first use of the track and should get an unchallenged lead and suspect he is going to be hard to run down. Each way at around $6.50 and should get out to better odds come race time.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-DIVINE CHILLS $4.50 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 2: 6-DIVINE CHILLS#2,3,4,7,8 x $2.50 = 50%
Another who is racing really well and last start was excellent when looped wide into the headwind on the day the races were cancelled and kept coming home to just miss. Bit of give in the ground suits and is hard and fit and in form. Fair bit of speed here, so might need a bit of luck getting through the field from an inside barrier, but is just racing so well. Back straight out at around $9 which seems generous odds, and anchor in a quinella with a few roughies like the 7-GIVE US A GO which should pay well in a even betting race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 5-RED ALTO $5 EW
We got stung backing this guy a few times through his 3YO campaign, where he kept running good 3rd and 4ths and he didn’t break his maiden status till his 16th start. Since then though, he has been a winning machine, and now won 5 of his past 8 starts. Strong 1st up win down the straight last time and think he may be a horse on the rise here and may go on with it this time in. Plenty of speed here will suit and just needs to be swooping late around them. Keen to go each way at around $13 in the get out stakes.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 4-AL PASSEM $2.50 EW
Under rated horse who has already won once at healthy odds in the city and stable won this race with RICH ENUFF a few years back. Tough type who will go forward here in a race with a lot of drop back backmarkers and might fight on better than expected in the straight. Something at odds of $17 and hopefully longer come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-O’MALLEY $2.50 EW
Very hard horse to catch, but best form is fresh, around MV,on wet tracks, on tracks favouring runners on, off a fast speed. Ticks all of those boxes today so we need to be wary of him. Mixing form a little, but career strike rate is still excellent and suspect he might do something today at around $15.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 10-FRANGONARD at around $4.80
We have already been stung once by the Lay of the Day, but will bravely battle on. This one is currently equal favourite in this race and has good fresh form, but best form is over longer and don’t like backing speed horses 1st up as they often need the run. Plenty of pressure up front here and has drawn barrier (1) so will have to work to hold the lead or get trapped back behind runners. Plenty of genuine winning chances in this race so happy to leave this one out today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
QUAD: Races 6,7,8,9: 3,4,9 / 2,7,10,11 / 4 / 5,8,9,12 x $5 = 10.41%
The quaddie should pay OK today as the results might mix up a bit more than most people expect. The first leg is a bit tricky, but stick with the three on pacers the 4-AL PASSEM, 3-BANDIPUR, 9-OVERSHARE in a race where there might not be that much pressure up front. The 2nd leg actually has a fair few winning chances, even though all the focus is on the short priced favourite the 10-HEATHERLY, there is a lot of speed and pressure in this race. So include the 2-KEEN ARRAY, 7-O’MALLEY, 11-MISSROCK and maybe even go wider if you can afford it and the dividend blows out here if the favourite gets beaten. Think you can anchor the 4-DUKE OF BRUNSWICK in the third leg in a race where there really isn’t any depth or many winning chances. Plenty of value in the final leg and always throw in a random roughie for a big approximate, so the 5-RED ALTO, 12-HAY BALE, 9-SMACKDOWN and 8-OAK DOOR. Good luck!
Race 1: 8-CISMONTAINE, 2-MASTER ZEPHYR, 6-YOGI
Race 2: 6-DIVINE CHILLS, 4-MERRIEST, 7-GIVE US A GO
Race 3: 3-LIMESTONE, 1-TULIP, 6-CHERIEF’S CHOICE
Race 4: 19-REBELLIOUS LORD (emerg), 12-SIN TO WIN, 11-LORD TENNYSON, 14-SPUNLAGO
Race 5: 10-BLING DYNASTY, 4-SECOND BULLET, 6-PACODALI
Race 6: 4-AL PASSEM, 3-BANDIPUR, 9-OVERSHARE
Race 7: 11-MISSROCK, 7-O’MALLEY, 10-HEATHERLY
Race 8: 4-DUKE OF BRUNSWICK, 10-HARLOW GOLD, 13-HERE TO THERE
Race 9: 5-RED ALTO, 12-HAY BALE, 9-SMACKDOWN