|MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES - 25th Aug 2018|
|Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 4M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Sunny weather heading into the weekend so although the track is a SOFT(5), it should firm up come race time. Rail goes OUT 4M here, and suspect it will be an advantage to be on speed, as it normally is with the rail out. Be wary of a few drawn inside here who drop back in big fields, think they are going to struggle to get into the race.
The nation is in turmoil and everyone is wondering the same question Ė will CHAUTAUQUA jump or not? And if not, does he want to be Prime Minister?
This meeting always sits a bit funny in the spring schedule, and is the only week we donít have a feature race in three months of the Spring Campaign. The Carlyon Stakes has drawn a much stronger field than most years though and is a fairly interesting race. The trick over the MV 1000M is always leading, or drawing out and getting a clear run on speed, if you get caught up back in the field you never get a chance to get out. The 11-SUPER TOO is super quick and should lead here, even from the outside barrier, with the other possible on speed horses being the 3-QUILISTA and the difficult to follow 5-FAATINAH, who we are just a bit wary about coming back from an duty free overseas trip, but keep an eye on the betting. Apart from that there doesnít actually appear to be that much pressure up front and think something leading or sitting second probably wins this race. Although the 1-HEY DOC is by far the best horse in this race, just slightly concerned about where he is going to end up in the run 1st up over the 1000M here from an inside barrier.
Going to go with the 3-QUILISTA on top here, excellent career stats and really had a break out campaign last time and likely to go on with it. Should get a perfect on speed run here and just be able to run down the leader 11-SUPER TOO, who has the speed to cross from the outside barrier, but just always gets a little wobbly over the final 25M. Best of the loopers is the 8-MR SNEAKY who might find this a little short, but really deserves to win a feature race one day (still canít believe he got run down in the Rupert Clarke last spring), and the 9-BANDIPUR. Betting strategy will be each way on the top pick with some stand out quinellas which should pay OK in a fairly even field.
We got off to a sluggish start last week with the Lay Of The Day winning, and nothing back in the Betting Portfolio. Today isnít a great day for a punt, there is an interesting mix of races on this card, with two races with short priced favourites in the red, but then a few races that are $5 to $8 the field.
BEST WIN: Race 1: 4-MERRIEST $7 WIN
Donít think we have seen the best of this horse, and donít understand why they ride her back in the field as all her best runs are on speed. Last start she went wide, and early, and hard to go forward and was caught in a three horse speed battle, the others dropped off, but she stuck on the best of them with 60kgs. First race of the day, around MV, rail out, there is a real chance to just go forward here and pinch this race Ė and surely if you can push forward three wide you can decide to lead from barrier 2? Think if she leads here, she wins, there is no other speed in this race at all, Back straight out at around $5.50 and hope the tactics work out.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-TRAP FOR FOOLS $5 EW
Fitter for the three runs in and has been building to a win as he steps up in distance. Really good career win strike rate and best thing is an on pacer, around MV, rail out and in a field of many out of form staying types. Shouldnít have to do too much work to get across from outside barrier here and should get the run of the race and have every chance. Only question mark is has had a few weeks off because of a set back, so just keep an eye on the betting market, but on previous runs would win this. Each way at around $5, and we might get better odds come race time with a few spruik horses in the field.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-QUILISTA, $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3-QUILISTA # 2,8,9,11 x $2 = 50%
Really consistent on speed mare who had a break out campaign last time and could go on with it this spring. Drawn inside, will sit second behind the leader here the (11), and just needs to push up a bit and make him work for the lead and that one probably comes unstuck. Back each way at around $6.50 and the quinella should pay OK in an even field, anchoring with the leader the (11) and the best of the swoopers (2), (8), (9) from outside barriers.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 6,12,14 boxed x $6 = 200%
Looks an even betting race and we are just slightly concerned the favourite here the (13) is going to get cluttered up back in the field from an inside barrier. We have backed the 6-STRIKE FORCE a few times and this really is his last chance, but he ran into a dead end on the rails at Caulfield two starts back and then fought on well leading when the rails were off at Flemington last start. The 14-BENNY GOES BERZERK has really solid recent form, and the roughie the 12-SPECIAL DIVA is a query at the distance, but best form is when leads uncontested and should get that here. Looks a nice value quinella in an open betting race with many chances.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 16-SAVAJU (emerg) $2.50 EW
One of the tougher races of the day, with the betting having $8 the field, but we are hoping the 3rd emergency somehow gets into the field. Fitter for the 2 runs in and was finishing on well here last start over 1000M. Best form is this track and distance and best suited running on from an middle to outside barrier so looks to have found the right race here. Nice rough chance at around $34, but main trick is going to be even getting into the field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-TITAN BLINDERS $1 WIN, $4 PLACE
We have a very short priced favourite in this race, the (5) who should go close to winning, but in a field of a lot of unexposed 3YOs wonder if this one really deserves to be such long odds? First career run in a Blue Diamond Prelude was OK, held up and making ground late, was competitive at mid week meeting the start after. Has run in some top level races. Ran on well 1st up at Geelong and hit line well, and will be suited if the leader runs them along here and breaks up the field. Should be running on well late, and happy to have a dabble, with more the place, at ridiculous odds of $81 and you might even get longer once you boost.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 14-MANTASTIC at around $6
Bit hard finding a Lay of the Day this week as the fields are either short priced favourites in the red, or greater than $6 the field. This one has been racing well, but started clear favourite now last 4 runs and won once and starting to get a bit costly. Goes OK, but is very one paced and not sure MV, dropping back from barrier 2 to the tail of a big field and having to come around them suits, not sure he has the turn of foot to get into the race. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 4:5: 3,7,8,10,11 / 13,16 x $5 = 50%
Two extremely open races, so if we can find a value winner the dividend should blow out. The first leg the main chances are (10), (8), (7) and (3), but lets also throw in rank outsider 11-TUFF BICKIE who might improve with the three runs in out to a staying trip. The second leg isnít any easier, but we like two at odds 16-SAVAJU (emerg), and 13-COSTA BOMB, and if the (16) doesnít make the field let the bet run just with the (13) in the second leg for a value result.
Race 1: 4-MERRIEST, 5-ICONOCLASM, 8-DRACHENFELS
Race 2: 6-STRIKE FORCE, 14-BENNY GOES BERZERK, 12-SPECIAL DIVA
Race 3: 1-ENBIHAAR, 2-KINKY BOOM, 5-MULTAJA
Race 4: 10-TIFFANYíS LASS, 8-FONTEIN LAD, 7-BIG HAMMER
Race 5: 16-SAVAJU (emerg), 13-COSTA BOMB, 6-OUR MALAMBO, 1-CHIAVARI
Race 6: 5-TRAP FOR FOOLS, 10-MR CLARIFY, 2-PACODALI
Race 7: 5-BRUTAL, 11-TITAN BLINDERS, 6-LEONARDO DA HINCHI
Race 8: 3-QUILISTA, 11-SUPER TOO, 8-MR SNEAKY
Race 9: 9-THEANSWERMYFRIEND, 4-MOSSíNíDALE, 14-MALAISE (emerg), 2-CHAMOIS ROAD