MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES - 24th August 2019
Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: FINE, WINDY - Rail: OUT 4M
Betting Portfolio ($50):
Fine and warm weather heading into the weekend so this track should improve just a little from a SOFT(5). The rail goes OUT 4M here and that normally means there is a very good chance we will get a strong leaders bias, especially as there has been so little racing here in recent months. The forecast wind might even things out a bit, but be ready to pick out the leaders if that is the racing pattern.

Itís a shame that this is the only meeting in the three months of the Spring Campaign where we donít have a feature group race to look at. The feature today, as such, is the listed Carlyon Stakes with only a field of 5 and really you would think the 3-ASSERTIVE APPROACH would go straight to the lead here in a small field, with possible leader bias and that would be the end of that. Much was said about the jockeys ride down the straight last start, but he was left exposed on a very heavy track so was a solid effort regardless. The 2-BONS AWAY is a quality sprinter and the main danger if they are running on OK and never underestimate the under rated 4-ASHLOR who will sit outside the lead and has placed 6 times from 7 starts at MV. Not a race we are that keen to bet on, maybe some solid quinellas on the 3,2 and 3,4 for interest.

Actually not a bad betting day for the rest of the program, and there are a few here we were keen to back when they next appeared, being Race 4: 10-STREET ICON and Race 9: 8-KENTUCKY BREEZE.

BEST WIN: Race 8: 11-TAVISAN $7 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 8: 11-TAVISAN, 9-USAIN BOWLER x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 8: 11-TAVISAN, 7-HOLBIEN x $1 = 100%
Smart performer who ran some good races last spring as a 3YO. Fitter for the 2 runs in and had to make a long hard run out wide here last start, hit the lead and went for home and looked the winner, but just finished on the run. That looks like a pretty strong form race. Drawn to go forward and likely leader here, and meets the main danger from last start the 9-USAIN BOWLER 2.5kgs better off. Back straight out at around $3.50, and you probably wouldnít want any shorter, and save on the quinella with the classy (9) and the on pacer 7-HOLBIEN.

BEST EACH WAY : Race 4: 10-STREET ICON $6 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 4: 10-STREET ICON#3-FRAGONARD, 11-CALZINI x $4 = 200%
Been waiting for this one to appear again and keen to get on. Lightly raced and on the way up, excellent run 1st up at Caulfield when only just beaten and totally forget last start failure when was caught wide on a furious speed that set the race up for the runners on. Small field here, fitter, apprentice claim, should jump and lead or sit outside the leader and is going to be very hard to beat. Happy to back straight out at around $5, and save on a quinella with the 3-FRAGONARD who hasnít been suited on wet tracks and was caught out wide into the breeze last start and the 11-CALZINI who is racing consistently and was unlucky last start.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 3-CONDOíS EXPRESS $4 EW
Scratched from Group race last week and kept for this, and was super impressive bursting through the field here last start. Normal pattern is to go forward though, and from inside barrier except to see him leading this field or getting a perfect on speed sit. Could be one going places as last win was very impressive and looks a solid each way bet at around $4.20.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 8-KENTUCKY BREEZE $4 EW
This was a stand out black booker last start when was wide all the way on a fast speed into a strong head breeze, was left alone in front a long way out as the others stopped and still stuck on well. Start before that here was badly held up for runs on the rails. Out to 2000M and he still needs to prove himself at the trip and there is a lot of speed in this field so it should also be a genuine staying race. Looks to position perfectly behind the speed here and really that last run was outstanding under the conditions. Confident each way bet at around $10.

BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 14-SAN REMO $2 EW
Have probably backed this guy a few too many times, but going to give him one more chance in what looks a messy race to line up. Plenty of in form stayers with plenty of weight in this race. Last start he burned along to a big lead, and stopped before the turn, but leaders did struggle to win that day. He had been super tough on speed his few runs previous. Plus today is Baster back on board who may know the trick to get the best of him, will probably go forward again, just not as aggressively as last time. Something for interest at around $20.

BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 10-STRIKE FORCE $2.50 EW
Pretty consistent fellow once he strikes form and is actually much better leading on dry tracks, in fact he won the BM78 1600M on this day last year doing just that. Looks a clear leader in this field and with the apprentice claim and possible on pace bias is going to be very hard to run down. Back each way at around $15 which looks very generous and suspect is going to start shorter come race time.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 6-ALGADON MISS at around $3.50
Was a tough win last start and she is showing promise, but also got a furious speed to suit her run on racing style. Unlikely to be as much pressure up front today, and chance the track could favour those on speed and there are plenty of other solid winning chances in this field. If they are running on and winning we could be totally stuffed, but letís take a set against a drop back horse going around MV with the rail out.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into much, much more.
QUINELLA: Race 6: 10-STRIKE FORCE#2,7,8,9,11 x $5 = 100%
There is a value quinella to be found here with our best rough, Race 6: 10-STRIKE FORCE , away from the favoured runners and have a few queries over some of the more favoured runners in this race like the 3-VINLAND and where they might get to in the run. There are plenty who might run a race at odds like the 2-MAGIC CONSUL and the 11-GOLD FIELDS so anchor in a quinella for a value collect.

The Tips:

Race 1: 14-THE GREAT ARTISTE (emerg), 1-SHOT OF IRISH, 7-SQUIDENSQUIZZ, 4-LAURE ME IN
Race 2: 9-GOOD IDEA, 14-SAN REMO, 6-NOT A SINGLE CENT
Race 3: 5-LADY LUPINO, 3-TARAAYEF, 1-LA TENE
Race 4: 10-STREET ICON, 3-FRAGONARD, 11-CALZINI
Race 5: 3-ASSERTIVE APPROACH, 2-BONS AWAY, 4-ASHLOR
Race 6: 10-STRIKE FORCE, 7-ROMANCER, 2-MAGIC CONSUL
Race 7: 3-CONDOíS EXPRESS, 9-DEEP FORCE, 4-INDPENDENT ROAD
Race 8: 11-TAVISAN, 9-USAIN BOWLER, 7-HOLBIEN
Race 9: 8-KENTUCKY BREEZE, 12-CHAROSSA, 7-BEDFORD