|MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES Ė 22nd August 2020|
|Track: SOFT(6) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: OUT 5M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Rather inglorious start to the Spring Campaign last week, with no winners on top, a wipe out in the Betting Portfolio, and best of all we managed to come bottom ten out of 910 entries in the Melbourne Racing Club tipping competition. Donít think we could have scored that badly even if we had tried to! We did find 6 out of 9 winners in the selections though, including value winner 5-BELLA NIPOTINA 1st W=$20.90 and tipped the $785 quaddie in the selections, but let the heart rule the form guide in not putting SAVITIANO 1st W=$5.60 on top in the feature race preview.
Rather horrid conditions heading into Saturday at Moonee Valley, with cold, wet and windy weather forecast. Track is currently a SOFT(6), but there is serious wind and rain forecast for Saturday so a lot will depend on how much rain comes and when it comes, but does look like an awful lot and before they race. Rail was TRUE last meeting here and the racing favoured those on-speed, we go out to the 5M position today. Normally that would favour those on-speed as well, but suspect the horrid conditions will even them out and they will be winning running on, in tough slogs to the line. So look for race fit horses that will handle the conditions and we mentioned last week the difference between horses that can barrier trial interstate 1st up and those who canít that are based in Victoria.
The feature race is the Carlyon Stakes, and this meeting had always been the week that stood out over spring as lacking a feature race, so itís great to see better fields this year. There is a fair bit of speed here with the 2-GREAT AGAIN going forward from barrier 1 and the flying Sydney sider 9-WITHERSPOON crossing from outside, which leaves the 1-JUNGLE EDGE and 3-ASHLOR sitting just off them and the 4-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR next in running.
Going through the runners. Heavy rain and wind favours the 1-JUNGLE EDGE and normally we are pretty good at when to catch him and when to take him on, plus for him are he isnít too badly off under this weight scale and the wet conditions suit, just note that his last three wins have been coming off a freshen up and he hasnít held his form the runs after that. Although his MV form doesnít look the best, most of those runs have been in Group 1 sprints so given the conditions and he can sit out wide in clear space which might be the best ground he looks a strong chance today. The 2-GREAT AGAIN has been racing extremely well and is very fit, stable says the wetter the better for him and just got beaten down the straight last start when he had every chance, but was still a pretty good run. Funny this is his first 1000M start though, and slight concern he may get crossed by the 9-WITHERSPOON who is super speedy out of the gates. The 3-ASHLOR is a MV specialist who often has to carry big weights so suited under this weight scale, handles it wet and gets a perfect sit on-speed here, so even though he is struggling to find his best form, he does look well over the odds and value in this. The 4-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR is speedy, but better over further, and 1st up prefer to see him go around. The 5-BONS AWAY has excellent 1st up form, and drawn out to swoop into the race if they go quick enough up front and that is the racing pattern, suspect he is better on firmer ground though. The 6-FINE DANE is outclassed in this. The 8-HUMMA HUMMA is a seriously good sprinting swooper with good 1st up form, who is unbeaten this track and distance. Watch the market on this one, as she would win this if right, we have always had her marked as a horse who doesnít really handle it wet though. The 9-WITHERSPOON is one we are very interested in, she is up sharply in class here, but hard, fit, loves it wet and loves to storm to the lead early and she should be able to cross and rail here despite some speed inside her Ė she really is that fast. She has been racing extremely well in Sydney with big weights, and last start just blew the start early and had to work to go to the lead. Her chances will mainly depend if they are winning on the rail, or swooping on the turn, but she is a very strong chance here. The 10-BROOKLY HUSTLE has a stack of ability and looks like she is finally starting to live up to the hype, fast speed here will suit, but she did get a dream rails run last start, and is largely unknown on wet ground. Inside barrier means might need luck again, but the small field and fast speed should see them spreading out in tough going. Strong chance, but she is definitely beatable here and might be giving some good wet trackers too much of a start up front today and question mark is if she can show the same turn of foot on a very wet track.
Despite the small field finding these a little difficult to measure up. We have been following the flying 9-WITHERSPOON up in Sydney and think we want to stick with her, she just jumps and runs, so despite the rise in class as long as they can win on the rails think she is going to be pretty hard to beat here. Race fitness will be a big plus against the 1st up horses in tough conditions. The tough old campaigner 1-JUNGLE EDGE looks to be perfectly placed and get the weather to suit as the main danger, he can be a bit hit and miss though and the market will usually tell the story. Actually think the MV specialist the 3-ASHLOR is way over the odds here for third pick and best rough chance, often has to carry big weights, gets a perfect on-speed sit here and suspect is going to run a lot better than the $26 odds suggests. Respect for the super fit and consistent 2-GREAT AGAIN, and just tending away from the short priced favourite the 10-BROOKLYN HUSTLE on the assumption we are going to get some seriously grotty weather and that might bring her undone. Looks a great value betting race as a result, so punting strategy is something each way on the top pick at around $11, and a box quinella with the four chances going against the favourite.
This is going to be a bit of a messy program, we might get serious rain, hard slogging finishes and a lot of scratchings. Think there are a quite a few value runners going around at good odds today and keep a close eye on the racing pattern. There were also a few emergencies we were keen on so have tipped four in those races in case they donít get into the field, and we would have made the Race 7: 15-FIGHT the Best Each Way in the Betting Portfolio, but realistically he is going to struggle to get into the field as third emergency. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 1-SANTA CATARINA $4 EW
Happy to take on the short priced favourite in this race, and this one seems fantastic value at around $12. NZ horse with a good win strike rate, good wet track form and took off early and wide here last start and kicked in the straight before dying on the run. Fitter for two runs in, and plenty of improvement to come out of that first Australian start, and might be able to go forward here and sit outside the leader. Much rather prefer to back this one each way at $12 than the $1.70 favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 2-WINNING PARTNER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 2-WINNING PARTNER#12-SURREAL IMAGE, 3-GLOBAL GIFT, 5-KISS AND CRY x $3 = 100%
Very consistent type who was unlucky not to win here two starts back when railed and just failed to grab the leader on the line, and then chased hard behind an impressive winner last start at Flemington. Should handle it wet OK, and there seems to be good speed here to allow him to run on late out wide. Apprentice claim is a big plus, and looks a tough, fit horse for tough slogging conditions. Back each way at around $6 and anchor in a quinella with the light weighted on pacer the 12-SURREAL IMAGE, the fit and in form 3-GLOBAL GIFT, and suspect there is a roughie here 5-KISS AND CRY who might improve up in distance and swooping on a wet track.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 9-WITHERSPOON $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 9-WITHERSPOON, 1-JUNGLE EDGE, 3-ASHLOR boxed x $3 = 100%
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 8,9: 9-WITHERSPOON, 1-JUNGLE EDGE, 3-ASHLOR / 12-SKYMAN x $3 = 100%
We are pretty keen to have something on the Sydney visitor in the feature race. She absolutely flies out of the barriers and assuming that they can win on the rails, she should be fast enough to cross them here and keep going. Proven wet tracker and note she was SCR from Sydney today to run here in this harder race. Each way at around $11 and there is a nice value quinella here with the old campaigners the 1-JUNGLE EDGE and the 3-ASHLOR who looks well over the odds for a MV specialist. Throw in a running double as well with the top pick 12-SKYMAN in the last race in a big field which should pay very well.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-PRAVRO $3 EW
Big field should ensure a genuine tempo in this and the last run of this one was actually pretty good, he was finishing strongly late on a wet Sandown track against the outside rail. He should be fitter for that run, has placed 9 from 18 at MV, and does have heavy track form (even though it was several years ago). Gets an apprentice claim to put him under the minimum and if the pattern is that they are swooping out wide in tough conditions he might be suited today. Surprised at the monster $71 on offer here and definitely will be having a dabble at those sort of odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 11-SIR PIPPIN $2 EW
Big tough field in the last race and you would think they should be able to run on OK. This one is running into form and is getting close to a win, just got far too far back last start here in a messy race and came home really well. More even tempo here will help, and a swooper backmarker drawn wide might be the racing pattern. Fully admit the wet track might be an issue with this one, but just a little something on at around $26 just in case.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 4-TAILLEUR at around $1.70
Might as well stick our head out and take on the shortest priced favourite of the day, as not like we have any interest in backing it. Lightly raced and impressive last start Sydney winner in the wet, but up in class, up 4kgs, around MV for the first time and most of this field goes OK so there are plenty of genuine dangers. Probably leads here without much pressure too, but just seems shocking value as the horses in blue often are. Happy to risk, mainly because could never justify backing it at these odds.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough for twenty six million vaccine doses.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 3,7,11,12,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
Really large even field in the last should ensure a good value quinella. Really surprised the 12-SKYMAN isnít favourite, won impressively first up and then had the field covered a long way out last start at Flemington. Will be swooping from an outside barrier but just going better than these and the $8 looks great value. But plenty of value in a big field, with the 11-SIR PIPPIN our best roughie, the 13-DOGMATIC (emerg) is fitter for the 3 runs in and the 2000M trip and looks ready to win with a nice on speed sit here and the 7-DOUBLE YOU TEE is better suited back to the 2000M suited. Box them up with the favourite the 3-ORDEROFTHEGARTER and a few of these are at decent odds so the dividend should be nice if we get it.
Race 1: 4-COMING AROUND, 7-ALSVIN, 1-WIDGEE TURF
Race 2: 1-SANTA CATARINA, 8-SWORD OF MERCY, 10-LADY LOFT
Race 3: 7-CLEAN MACHINE, 11-JENNIíS RAINBOW, 8-RIVERINA STORM
Race 4: 8-KENTUCKY TORNADO, 4-CRIMSON ACE, 5-HIGH EMOCEAN
Race 5: 2-WINNING PARTNER, 12-SURREAL IMAGE, 3-GLOBAL GIFT
Race 6: 1-HARD LANDING, 4-FLYING AWARD, 6-ALBARADO
Race 7: 15-FIGHT (emerg), 3-DEXELATION, 7-WINDSTORM, 11-PRAVRO
Race 8: 9-WITHERSPOON, 1-JUNGLE EDGE, 3-ASHLOR
Race 9: 12-SKYMAN, 11-SIR PIPPIN, 13-DOGMATIC (emerg), 7-DOUBLE YOU TEE