|MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES - SATURDAY 26th AUGUST 2023|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 4M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Just a few showers forecast for the weekend and if they are not substantial this track might get onto the firm side. Rail goes back to OUT 4M here, we had that dynamite leaderís track two meetings back when the track was OUT 5M and was back to TRUE last meeting and played fairly. Track staff seem confident that the track will play fairly, punters should be super cautious and suspect there is a good chance you will want to be on-speed again. Quite a few scratchings from those concerned about a firm track. Actually some quite even betting races today for a MV meeting so lots of good each way chances.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we wonít be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 8-SOCIAL CONSCIENCE $4 EW, QUINELLA 8#9,12,13,14 x $2 = 50%
Fitter for the two runs in and showed he was ready to win with solid effort here last start. Dry track suits and hoping they settle forward here from a good barrier. Excellent distance stats and normally goes well here so a good each way chance at around $7. Anchor in a quinella with the value runner the 13-BRAZEN LADY who seems over the odds on-speed, the favourites the 9-THE PRODIGAL SON and the 14-MAWALLOCK and the 12-MERLINíS CHANCE the other value runner.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-DEEPSTRIKE $4 EW
Been racing really well and liked the run here last start when cut the corner to run into the race but didnít have clear room. Small field suits, had a dashing turn of foot and set alight around them on the turn here should be able to be right in the finish at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 10-HYPOTHETICAL $5 EW
Quite like this one in the feature race, has shown a fair bit of ability as an on-speed sprinter and just like where she settles here, in clear running outside the leader. Has won two jump outs so should be forward for this, firm track suits and she will be stronger than the others on-speed if the pressure is one. Look a really good value bet at around $10 and this is the main bet of the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 4-AMBASSADORIAL $2 EW
Surprised with fighting on-speed win at long odds last start ($91), but has won a jump out since and looks a clear leader today on a track that may favour those on-speed. More confident if the leaders are winning, but he might be one on the improve stepping up in distance.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 10-KING COUVER $3 EW
Tough on-pacer who fought on well at Flemington last start and long shot winner at Sandown start before when fought them off for the length of the straight. May prefer some give in the ground, but looks a clear leader here and probably not that much pressure up front so may be hard to run down again. Great rough chance at around $14.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 8-NODACHI $2 EW, QUINELLA: 3,6,8,9 boxed x $3 = 50%
Hasnít done much wrong in career to date, tough on-speed 1400M horse who was a beaten short priced favourite over in Adelaide at $1.85 last start (so has some spruik on her), but goes around at a generous $16 today. Should be able to jump and take a position on-speed and in a very even field (8 runners last start place getters) like that she is more a 1400M horse over an even competitive 1200M race so should be strong end of the race. Back each way and box up a value quinella with the favourite 3-INHIBITIONS, the leader 6-IPHIMEDIA and the improving 9-BEAUTY RISING.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 7-MAGNASPIN at around $2.80
Impressive winner last start, but that was leading on the dynamite leaders track and all the winners from that day simply havenít produced in their next run. First time out to 2500M in a field full of hard fit stayers and suspect one of them will outstay him in this. Prefer to look for value in a big even field.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment
QUINELLA: Race 5: 4,10,12,14,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
We have taken on the short priced favorite in this race as Lay Of the Day so might as well search for a big quinella in a big even field. The 15-ZAYMUDIN has been racing well, the 4-BAINBRIDGE has been good leading here last two starts, the 10-MEINER LEGACY might be ready to do something at odds with the two runs in, the 12-ORBITAL EXPRESS chased hard last start and fitter for the step up in distance and might as well throw in the rank outsider here the 14-SWELTER MAGIC with a light weight with a claim who will go forward, prefers the dry track and probably runs a race at $126.
Races 7,8,9,10: 6,7 /7,8,9,10 / 5,7,9,10,11 / 3,4,5,12 x $20 = 12.5%
Quaddie probably pays OK today, but would want to get the short priced favourite beaten in the third leg for the dividend to really blow out. Be brave with just the 7-DEEPSTRIKE, 6-BRAYDEN STAR in the first leg, some value in the feature race, go wide in the third leg (even though the favourite probably wins as the value comes if it doesnít), and main chances should fight out the last leg.
Feature Race Preview:
The feature race is the Carlyon Stakes over 1000M, which is basically a replay of the 1000M race here two weeks ago with the first four runners home in a close finish all going around here again today. Big difference here though is that there is likely to be a lot more speed today, we have the super speedy 2-SNAPPER jumping and running from barrier (1) , the 4-GENERATION (SCR) trying to land forward from an outside barrier and 10-HYPOTHETICAL who can go forward as new additions to the speed mix. Also the 8-OMNI MAN was slow away last start and elected to take a sit but will be shooting strongly for the lead today. Which means a fair bit of pressure up front here and probably a different race tempo than last time.
Runner By Runner Comments:
1-SWEET RIDE got the money for us here last start when we were keen, but also got an absolutely perfect sit just off the speed and swooping on the turn to just hit the lead at the right time. Really badly weighted today meeting the (8) 1.5kgs worse and the (7) a whopping 5 kgs worse off (and only just got that one on the line). Suspect this one is probably better over slightly further, so the extra speed today should suit. Just wary he got the perfect run last start, only just won, few behind were unlucky and meets them worse off at weights. Winning chance, but not keen to bet today.
2-SNAPPER is a super speedy leader who has won 4/8 here, but does tend to take a run or two to find best form each time in. Dry track suits, and drawn barrier 1 to jump and sprint to the lead Ė on his best form he would win this easily if he is ready to produce. Best form is over slightly longer and needs to jump cleanly and ping here with pressure on his outside. Watch the market on this one, $14 seems well over the odds, but also suggests they donít think he is ready for this 1st up. Watch.
3-ASHFORD STREET is a super tough plugging sprinter who ran well against these last start but it was a messy race. Will jump and sit handy behind the speed but also prefers it wetter and rough place chance only.
4-GENERATION is one we have backed, tipped and lost on quite a few times and donít think he has really lived up to his early form (last 10 starts for 1 x 2nd and 1 x 3rd, after winning 4 from 6 first starts). Has been contesting much harder races though so suited here from an outside barrier sitting in clear running on-speed, on a firm track down in class. Is going to get trapped pretty wide though. Market seems keen, can see he is suited, would just like to see him win again before getting on seriously. Winning chance. (SCR)
6-EXPRESS PASS loves to run on off a strong speed and is drawn to drop back and run on today, but is coming off a year long break from injury and hasnít shown much in jump outs. Wait for him to return to form before getting on.
7-ACROMANTUAL was really good here last start when got the lead (which was a surprise), kicked and was only just headed on the line Ė and the track wasnít favouring leaders that day. Extremely well weighted here dropping 2kgs and meeting the (1) 5kgs better and the (8) 3.5kgs better off. Dry track suits and unlikely to lead here again and just take a sit. Looks perfectly suited here off last start and one to beat.
8-OMNI MAN is normally a tear away leader but missed the start slightly last start and ended up back of the field but still rallied through to just miss. Suspect they will go very strongly and aggressively to the lead here today to make up for that unlucky run and if there is little pressure or if the track favours leaders is going to be extremely hard to beat. Can be a little weak end of his races though so might be vulnerable if the pressure is on. Hard to beat today.
9-LITTLE MISS KUBI has a sensational finishing burst and will be suited here if they can run on off the fast speed. Wide barrier is perfect for her as a swooping backmarker. As long as they can run on today she is an excellent rough chance and seems well over the odds at $35.
10-HYPOTHETICAL has a very smart career win strike rate and has won two barrier trials so might be forward enough for this. Dry track suits, can jump and go forward and sit in clear running outside the speed. Really like where she lands in the run here and if there are any chinks with the (8) she will be able to take advantage of them. Never raced over 1000M but happy to take on trust. Strong winning chance and good value.
Summary: We are not sure of the strength of the form of the lead-up race most of these are coming through and enough new speed here to mix up the form Ė this is a much stronger race. The value runner does seem to be the 10-HYPOTHETICAL though, lightly raced mare with a good win strike rate who should jump and go forward and sit in clear running on the speed and looks an excellent each way bet at around $13. The 7-ACROMANTUAL is extremely well suited out of the last race here as the main danger, and basically if the track is favouring those on-speed or there is no enough pressure up front then the 8-OMNI MAN probably wins, so keep an eye on track pattern. Best roughie is the 9-LITTLE MISS KUBI finishing strongly. Happy to have an each way bet on the top pick and box these up in some exotics.
Race 1: 1-AMUR, 4-MANSIERE, 6-ESSKAY
Race 2: 8-SOCIAL CONSCIENCE, 13-BRAZEN LADY, 14-MAWALLOCK
Race 3: 6-RIPROAR, 4-AMBASSADORIAL, 2-FISTSOFFURY
Race 4: 7-HENNESSY LAD, 10-KING COUVER, 6-CRACKERJACK PRINCE
Race 5: 15-ZAYMUDIN, 4-BAINBRIDGE, 12-ORBITAL EXPRESS
Race 6: 8-NODACHI, 3-INHIBITIONS, 6-IPHIMEDIA
Race 7: 7-DEEPSTRIKE, 6-BRAYDEN STAR, 8-FUTURE HISTORY
Race 8: 10-HYPOTHETICAL, 7-ACROMANTULA, 8-OMNI MAN
Race 9: 7-ST LAWRENCE, 9-ARRAN BAY, 5-REGARDSMAREE
Race 10: 4-NAJEM SUHAIL, 5-RED HOT NICC, 3-MAXIMILLIUS