Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for Moonee Valley Carlyon Stakes 23/08/2025.
Few showers heading into the weekend, but not that much rain. Track currently rated a SOFT(5) and will stay in the genuine SOFT range, but note the key rail position here – OUT 5M. Racing pattern will almost certainly favour those leading and close to the rails today and to make matters worse we have quite a few small fields, so likely to be a strong leader’s pattern. Not a huge amount of value around from a punting point of view and will be treading very carefully.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 7-MUKTAMIL $7 WIN, QUINELLA 7-MUKTAMIL#3-ARDAKAN, 6-JENNIVAMOOSE x $3 = 150%
These stayers have all been racing against each other last few months, and seem to be taking it in turns to win with not much between them. Key today is the weights, this one meets the 2-BOLD SOUL who beat him home last start 4kgs better for a < 1 length defeat. Has been racing extremely consistently and won 2 and placed 5 from last 8 starts and looks a good straight out bet at around $4.50. Anchor in a quinella with the talented 6-JENNIVAMOOSE who will drop back, and roughie here is the leader the 3-ARDAKAN who may give a kick and be in the finish.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 12-STOLI BOLLI $6 WIN
Talented sprinter with potential who found the 1000M too short first-up and was coming home well late. Proven track and distance, probably just needs a forward ride today to sit just behind the lead from a middle barrier. Likely to improve considerably out to the 1200M and as long as they can come off the rails and win he is going to be hard to beat at around $3.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 9-NAVY KING $4 EW
Tough on-speed effort here last start when just dipped out for the place after being involved in a three way battle before the turn. Track was favouring swoopers that day and track is likely to favour those on-speed today is a big positive. A few other speed horses here though in the 11-MAISY and the 6-RISE TO IT, so jockey needs to be aware and get to the rails and the lead, but if he does should be hard to run down today at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-PUDDING $4 EW
Very little value around today, but this looks one of the more open races on the program. This one had no luck last start at Flemington when held up for most of the straight behind runners, did get clear and just work to the line, but look after the line to see how much he had left to give and it was plenty. Inside barrier and can go more forward is required, but likely to be sitting behind the leader on the turn and need a gap to open. Good 1600M stats. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-MIDWEST $4 EW
Speedy customer who wants 1000M and a firming track and he looks to get that today. Solid effort here last start when the track pattern favoured runners on, key to him is he can ping the gates and jump clear of the rest of the field and find the rails if he does that again today and gets running on a leaders track he might be pretty hard to run down at around $9.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 10-RUMBLED AGAIN $2.50 EW
Vastly under-rated mare who always seems to go around at long odds. First-up performance on an unsuitable firm track at $100 was really good she loomed nicely into the race before running out of condition. She has ran some great races at MV before, and this is a very winnable race, most of these are early in their preparations or mix their form, if they can jump and find a position today she is right in this. Think she will run a race today at a very nice $30.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 2-BUR DUBAI at around $5
Imported stayer who went well in first preparation, but didn’t do that much here 1st up. Staying at the 1600M, drawn barrier 1, around MV and just not sure he has the turn of foot to run into the race here. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 4: 9-NAVY KING
PLACE Race 6: 4-PUDDING
PLACE Race 8: 10-RUMBLED AGAIN
WIN Race 9: 12-STOLI BOLLI
Limited options today for value, but lets try and build some placegetters into a solid win bet on the top pick in the last. Looking at around $600 for a $5 outlay.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 3,4,5,10,12 / 4,5,8 / 2,10,12 / 4,7,10,12 x $20 = 11.11%
Probably not going to be a huge quaddie here, but wide open first leg and if we can find something away from the obvious in the middle legs will be coming home on a nice quaddie approximate.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: CARLYON STAKES 1000M
Small and pretty even field for the feature race and the racing pattern will be key here so watch the earlier races, but almost certain to be favouring those on-speed. The 4-MIDWEST will lead here and he is hard to run down when he leads uncontested, but the 6-DON’T HOPE SO (wide barrier) should go forward and the 9-DREAMZEL can also put the pressure on up front (but has also been slowly away a few times), with the 3-GOLDEN BOOM being the other speed runner (switching states). To be honest don’t think these can go quick enough early though and the 4-MIDWEST should clear out to the lead and get the prime rails position.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MORNINGTON GLORY has sensational track and distance stats and won this race last year before going on to win a Group 1. Jump outs were good leading into first-up run where he was disappointing, but really he wasn’t beaten that far. Main issue here is he is meeting several here who beat him home easily last start. Definitely prefers firm ground too – not sure how much the MV track is going to dry out, even without any rain. Probably prefer to see again unless there is a substantial market move. No.
2-BARAQIEL had a sensational spring last year but has had injury issues and was a late SCR at Caulfield a few weeks back, but has passed a steward inspection before today. Good jump outs means he should be ready for this and he is probably capable of being a factor in some feature spring sprints at his best, so he would win this on best form. Going to get behind runners on the rails here in a 1000M sprint so will need luck. Wins this on best form, another to watch the market on – but probably prefer to see him go around his spring to see how he has came back after a few issues. Chance with reservations.
3-GOLDEN BOOM led in this race last year and was only run down late on the line by the (1). Best form is up north, but given some trials leading into this and should be pretty forward first-up. Definitely has the ability to pick up some early spring sprints. Drawn outside the (4) and doubt this one has the speed to cross him so will be caught outside the leader on the speed and question is how much they want to pressure the leader here. Some chance.
4-MIDWEST is a super-fast 1000M horse who is very hard to run down when he gets a clean lead – and normally he can jump fast enough to lead easily. Solid here last start leading in the worse ground and it wasn’t a leaders day so that run is better than it looks – but the (5) went past him easily. Excellent track and distance stats, but he does prefer track on the dry side. Would like to see this track racing on the firmer side and that would make him a strong winning chance, just not convinced about him on a SOFT(6). Strong chance.
5-OAK HILL was a class win last start, looping on the turn and going straight past them. Proven track and distance, main issue is that last start the track was favouring the swooping racing pattern and today it’s probably going to favour those on-speed. Smart career win strike rate and looks to be a horse on the way-up, main danger is a dynamite leader racing pattern. Strong chance.
6-DON’T HOPE SO was impressive when he kept running to lead and win here last start – and that wasn’t the racing pattern that day. Ridden aggressively to cross from an outside barrier last start and they might try and do the same here today – but is he fast enough to cross the (4) and the (3)?. Can see them ending up having to take a sit out wide behind the speed, which may not be advantageous. Probably not a straight out 1000M specialist like many of these. Prefer place. SCRATCHED
7-TIGER SHARK was well held here last start by most of this field and hard to see her improving enough to beat them home today. Likely to settle back in the field here and hard to line up the QLD form into this, prefer to see some form before getting on. No. SCRATCHED
8-NEW YORK LUSTRE looks to have a lot of potential and has an excellent win strike rate. Only beaten by a pretty smart sprinter 1st up at Caulfield, and then slowly away 2nd up and even to the line, but probably expected a little bit more. Unbeaten over 1000M and winner over this track and distance. Will sit off them here and will want a pretty genuine tempo and allow her to swoop into the race and will need racing pattern on-side. Definite chance though and the $8 looks pretty good odds about a horse that has contested two Group races coming into this today. Strong chance.
9-DREAMZEL can go pretty fast, but has also been slow out 2/3 last starts which doesn’t make it easy to go forward. Drawn inside and if slowly away again today will get crossed by several runners here. Good horse in the right sprint race, but maybe not this. Risking.
Summary:
Racing pattern probably decides this race and would be keen to get on the 4-MIDWEST on a firming track, when on-song he can jump out clearly ahead of the rest of the field and easily clear to the lead. 5-OAK HILL the class runner who wins as long as they can run on and the pressure is on up-front and
8-NEW YORK LUSTRE probably has the best form leading into this race and looks value. But definitely a wait to bet till we see the racing pattern on the day.
Race 1: 2-PETITE ARTISTE, 3-CHERISH ME, 1-MISS CELINE
Race 2: 7-MUKTAMIL, 6-JENNIVAMOOSE, 3-ARDAKAN
Race 3: 2-GODTFRED KIRK, 1-CROSSBOW, 6-EXIT
Race 4: 9-NAVY KING, 11-MAISY, 7-GENRICHERO
Race 5: 10-REGAL AWARD, 4-OYSTER LANE, 1-ALEPPO PINE
Race 6: 4-PUDDING, 5-DRAGOON, 10-ROLLING MAGIC
Race 7: 4-MIDWEST, 5-OAK HILL, 8-NEW YORK LUSTRE
Race 8: 12-HARD TO CROSS, 10-RUMBLED AGAIN, 2-DETONATOR JACK
Race 9: 12-STOLI, BOLLI, 10-PIVOTAL TEN, 4-BOSSY NIC
