Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for the Carlyon Stakes Moonee Valley racing at Sandown Hillside.
We are entering uncharted territory here with MV racing on a pretty tired and worn Sandown Hillside track which has had a lot of meetings this winter. Really hard to judge the racing pattern, but doubt there is much room for improvement in the track and it will be a genuinely wet track where those running on will have their chance down the middle of the track. Friday track reports are all over the place between a HEAVY(10) and a SOFT(7) and we have landed on a HEAVY(8) this morning with a stack of scratchings. Probably want to wait and see what the racing pattern is here, really difficult to judge at the moment. Punting point of view this looks like a pretty messy program and will be treading lightly, but have still managed to find four x $10 shots each way to follow.
For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-NIC’S CHOICE $5 EW
Half the field scratched here, but hopefully this one will stay double figure odds. Excellent win strike rate and seems to be improving with each run, and really liked the first up win here when he dashed through along the inside over the top of them and won going away. 2nd up and up 200M and will drop back so will want some speed on, but Sandown Hillside will allow him to run on again and he looks to be a horse on the way up. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-DIVINE DOT $4 EW
QUINELLA Race 5: 3-DIVINE DOT, 7-ONE DAY AT A TIME, 9-SHOOTING BRAKE boxed x $3 = 50%
Showed some ability last campaign and definitely handles wet tracks and winner this track and distance. Likely to go forward here and even though it’s a 3YO sprint race not sure there is that much speed in this. Each way at around $10 and box up a quinella with two other good value chances, the 7-ONE DAY AT A TIME who was strong winning here last start and the 9-SHOOTING BRAKE who is a maiden but showed some promise with eye-catching finishes last time in.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 2-PER SEMPRE $4 EW
Yeah OK we tip and back this one way too much, but this looks the perfect race set up for her. She has been thereabouts last few runs in stronger races, but the 1000M is really her go (placed 15 from 21) and wet tracks (placed 12 from 18 on soft). Likely to get the race run to suit today, genuine speed and bursting through the pack along the inside. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 15-LOVELYCUT $4 EW
QUINELLA Race 9: 15-LOVELYCUT#8,9,17,18 x $4 = 100%
Pretty consistent type who probably should win a few more races but this race looks ideal for her today. Excellent run last start behind a smart one and they cleared away from the rest, good wet track form and good Sandown form means she should be in the finish here at around $6. Back each way and anchor in a quinella with the on-speed 9-STAY SILENT who is tough to run down when leading, the roughie 17-CASTLE ON HIGH who is suited onto a wet track here and should be ready to do something with a few runs in, the consistent 8-SOMEWHERE and the other roughie the strong finishing 18-MALE MODEL.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 10-BEACH PAD $2 EW
Not sure any of these stayers are going that well and not sure you want to take short odds in these sort of fields so let’s go for one with more value. This one loves it wet, and is a tough grinding type who has plugged away well last few starts. Likely to settle more forward here right on the speed and interesting to see what he can do grinding away out to a staying distance today. Rough at around $12.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 2-INCOGNITIO at around $3
These early 3YO races often throw up value results with runners improving into their next campaign. This one is has been racing in the top 2YO races in Sydney, but never raced Melbourne way of going and never raced on a heavy track so can’t really get interested as favourite in this race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a gardener for Caulfield racecourse
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 10-BEACH PAD
PLACE Race 5: 3-DIVINE DOT
PLACE Race 7: 4-LOSESOMEWINMORE
PLACE Race 9: 17-CASTLE ON HIGH
Looking at around $400 for a $5 outlay and would love to be coming home on the roughie in the last leg here.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,2,11,14,16 / 4,7,11 / 2,4,7 / 8,9,15,17,18 x $20 = 8.88%
Good chance of some value in the first and last legs so if anything out of the ordinary wins the middle legs there will be a healthy dividend.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: CARLYON STAKES 1000M
If this race was run at Moonee Valley you should want to be all over the in-form leader, but a genuinely wet Sandown Hillside makes this is a totally different race and a much tougher 1000M. We will have to wait and see how many scratchings come through on genuinely wet track, but the speed should be quite fast here, the 5-BEAST MODE always runs them along and the 7-CAVALRY GIRL, 10-BAZABALL REWARDED will sit on speed and ensure a genuine tempo. Keep an eye out for the racing pattern in the earlier races to determine betting strategy here.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-HEDGED is ultra-consistent in these sort of races, but he has been a beaten short priced favourite quite a few times, sometimes with no luck, but also sometimes with every chance. And of course he came out and almost won the Oakleigh Plate at $20. Fresh form is good, had two good jump outs leading into this race and he should be ready to do something here. Can jump and take a position and give himself every chance. The wet track may be an issue though, and especially a genuine Sandown wet track. Rough chance only.
2-OLE DANCER has a fair bit of ability and has had some controversy in her racing pattern, which is normally on-speed but can also be ridden back with a strong finishing run. Form is all over longer distances though and her best form is all around 1400M. 1000M is really a specialist distance, so will be interesting to see what the market does with this one as the trainer normally knows what he is doing. Pushed along to lead in a jump out to prepare for this – but surely she will be out the back here in a field of smart 1000M horses. If the racing pattern is they are running on late then some chance, but never keen on a drop back horse in a fast 1000M race. Passing. SCRATCHED
3-KLABEL has form around this level and big plus is that he goes better on genuinely wet tracks. Will jump and race on-speed and is normally around the finish somewhere, but he hasn’t shown much in two runs this time in and there are some here that are flying or with a lot of upside so he looks to face a challenge in this. Note extremely well weighted here, was giving some of these more than 5 kgs last start. Passing.
4-LOSESOMEWINMORE has a sensational finishing burst when he strikes his best form and gets the right racing pattern and right race conditions, but it’s starting to get a bit hard to work out when that is going to be (which isn’t fun for punters). He seems to need a really fast run race, and the last two starts they haven’t gone that quickly - but suspect they are going to go pretty fast here today. Freshened up and will give these a start over 1000M, so he will need a strong run-on racing pattern. Capable if conditions suit – but also he may be a Flemington straight dry track horse. Rough only.
5-BEAST MODE is famous for dashing along in the lead and he is pretty hard to reel in when he gets moving – but he also tends to fold up quickly when not at the peak of his form or fitness. Showed a really good kick in Sydney last start and he should be close to his best today. Total 1000M specialist and he doesn’t get much further than that. His best form though is all dry track, on-speed courses and not sure that is how Sandown is going to race today. Racing pattern vital here. Will kick clear and look hard to run down at some stage, but suspect today isn’t the right conditions for him. Place only.
6-ALONG THE RIVER is consistent as they come and continues to be totally under-rated, he has now won 3 of his last 7 starts. Placed an outstanding 20 from 29 runs over the 1000M and those 9 misses include another four times he ran 4th (yes we did go check, and thought as much). Seems to be racing better than ever at the moment, hard fit, proven at Sandown Hillside and handles it wet (genuine heavy though may be an issue). Well beaten by the (7) last start, but he just got into the wrong position, out the back of the field whilst the leader kicked clear around Caulfield Health. Given how consistent he is, seems crazy odds at $46 here and genuine rough chance in this. Just would prefer a track better side of heavy. Rough. SCRATCHED
7-CAVALRY GIRL has always shown a fair bit of ability, but she seems to have really worked out this racing sprinter thing the last few starts and seems to be one on the improve. Previously she could be a bit weak at the end of her races, but she should have won 5/6 most recent starts and the last two wins have probably been her best and quite dominant – running out to a big lead and keeping going. Wet track no issue. Her main issue here is the (5) here who also goes fast in the lead and she will probably have to take a sit behind that one. Barrier 1 may also be an issue if they are running down the middle of the track. Going too well to take on though. Strong chance.
8-STOKKE has a bit of ability but he might need another run or two coming off a long lay-off. Excellent distance stats and proven here at Sandown Hillside, he can race handy and was well in the market first-up when didn’t have much luck, but he also may have needed the run. Probably want to see him get back to some form before getting on again. Passing.
9-EXTRAGALACTIC is lightly raced and a potential sprinting star, and she only just missed a Group 1 Goodwood last campaign. Two fair jump outs this time in, but if this is a strong speed and a runners on track (which is very, very likely) this race will set up for her perfectly. Unknown in wet ground. Just don’t understand the odds on this one – has a major spruik, normally punters jump all over these types, started $3.50 favourite in the Group 1 Goodwood last start and only just missed the photo in a sensational run – and she is not even favourite in this today at $4? What are we missing – thought she would be a clear favourite against these? Found it – trainer is worried about the heavy track and may not run. Top chance if she has all his legs and probably starts clear favourite if they run. SCRATCHED
10-BAZABALL REWARDED is a tough on-speed sprinter who has been flying this time in, but just seems to have either found his level or getting to the end of his campaign with last few runs. Placed 10 from 11 over 1000M and handles it wet and she is normally tough on-speed so will be around the finish somewhere so seems over the odds. Rough chance, prefer place.
11-SIGNATURE SCENT is a strong finishing, sit and sprint over them sprinter who has been racing well this time in. Beat the (7) this time in (carried 4.5kgs less though), and not far off them last start. Prefers wet ground and will be suited sitting off a fast speed in this. Definite chance here with race run to suit.
Summary:
Hard to line these up with the track reports and racing pattern and also chance we may get a few scratchings here. But based on the full field and a stack of speed the 9-EXTRAGALACTIC is going to be very hard to beat and if she starts and they bet $4 that would be rather nice thank-you. Main danger is the in-form 7-CAVALRY GIRL but also suspect something runs her down today, and can’t resist the long odds about the ultra-consistent 6-ALONG THE RIVER as the best roughie. Genuine chances to the 4-LOSESOMEWINMORE and the 11-SIGNATURE SCENT running on off a fast speed.
Hasty re-write with scratchings everywhere, leaves us with 7-CAVALRY GIRL on top, from 4-LOSESOMEWINMORE and 11-SIGNATURE SCENT.
Race 1: 6-VALLICE, 2-HYDROBOMB, 5-COMMIT
Race 2: 6-NIC’S CHOICE, 5-CRUISERWEIGHT, 10-CHERISH ME
Race 3: 10-BEACH PAD, 6-NEARCO FORD, 1-SMOKIN’ ROMANS
Race 4: 5-FIRST CHORUS, 6-JUSTADEEL, 8-ST LAWRENCE
Race 5: 3-DIVINE DOT, 7-ONE DAY AT A TIME, 9-SHOOTING BRAKE
Race 6: 2-PER SEMPRE, 14-CONSCIENCE, 16-MISS COTOLETTA
Race 7: 7-CAVALRY GIRL, 4-LOSESOMEWINMORE, 11-SIGNATURE SCENT
Race 8: 7-GOLD COAST BELLE, 2-TENNESSEE BOUND, 4-PIASTRI
Race 9: 15-LOVELYCUT, 9-STAY SILENT, 17-CASTLE ON HIGH
