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CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 20th Oct 2007

Track: GOOD - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 6M

Betting Portfolio ($100): Hot dry weather and this track should come up pretty firm – unknown factor here is how much they water the track, as they do tend to like to have DEAD tracks on race morning these days. This often means the track can dry out unevenly though and that’s when you get fast lanes. Caulfield races extremely fairly these days, but looking back over our track comments for the last 7 years (available under Black Book section of website), it is worth nothing that Caulfield Cup day often favours on pacers – and this meeting last year the best going was definitely on the inside. Just another factor to keep in the back of the ever ticking, ever analysing punting mind, and maybe watch out for the on pacers, especially in the first half of the day. RESULTS : The track seemed to favour those coming down the middle in the first few races, but the 2nd half of the program was largely won by horses racing on the speed. Suspect took the track a while to dry out after normal over watering to soften the track. This looks a fantastic program and plenty to bet on here, so let’s double our normal bets and take a whole show bag of different bets across the day. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 11-TYPHOON ZED $20 EW 2nd W=$5.50, P=$2.10 = $42 Been racing pretty well, not beaten very far here 1st up and gets a big weight drop, 2nd up dropped back in distance and just found the others a bit too sharp, but was coming strongly at the end. Fitter for the 2 runs in, drawn inside and races on speed here (which is just even) and puts himself into finish. Go well. RESULTS : Jumped forward, raced right on the speed, and in head to head battle down the straight only just went down by a long head. BEST EACH WAY : Race 7: 3-ON A JEUNE $9 EW Hasn’t won for a few years (just like us), and still paying for huge Melbourne Cup 2nd when they dish out the weights, but doesn’t often contest winnable races and looks to be running into form this time in. Just needs some pace on – doesn’t seem to be much in this race. RESULTS : Got too far back and ran on well, still right on track for Melbourne Cup this year. BEST EACH WAY : Race 3: 7-VANDALO $5 EW 1st W=$8.60, P=$2.50 = $55.50 Started long odds last start, but was working home well and wasn’t really pushed out to the line. Pretty ordinary opposition here and repeat of that run would just about win. Results : Storms down the middle and sticks head out at right time to score at nice odds. TRIFECTA : Race 5 : Box 1,2,7,10 x 50 cents = $12 3rd 1-LIKE IT IS W=$13.50 Short priced favourite in Race 5, the (2) should win, but there are a few here who will be fitter for the runs in and might add some value to the trifecta. Even more value if the favourite gets beaten. RESULTS : Short priced favourite goes down, but miss the rest of the placings. QUINELLA : Race 10: Box 6,8,12(scr) x $5 = $15 2nd 8-SOARESSA W=$8.80, $10 back for scratching Last race looks very open, awful lot of speed, so box up some of those that will be running on and this should pay pretty well if you are trying to find a value bet to get out in the last. RESULTS : Good idea, bit tougher when one of the 3 got scratched. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. QUINELLA : Race 8: 8-MALDIVIAN (scr), 18-MASTER O'REILLY x $5 1st 18-MASTER O'REILLY W=$5.20, $5 back for scratching Take the 2 in form “M”’s in the quinella in the Caulfield Cup. RESULTS : Again, bit hard to get the quinella, when you only have one runner. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $112.50 NET : $+12.50 RESULTS : Squeezed a profit, but scratchings meant we lost a few of the bets. Tips went along nicely, finding most of the winners and some value collects.

The Tips: Race 1: 6-ROYALE HARMONY, 7-TRY THIS, 3-CLUNY Race 2: 1-DANEDINA, 4-COT CASE, 13-BLACKEN Race 3: 7-VANDALO, 1-GREEN MANKINI, 11-VALIDATOR Race 4: 5-JABAL TARIK, 1-VILLIAN, 3-PILLAR OF HERCULES Race 5: 2-VORMISTA, 7-SOVEREIGN MISS, 1-LIKE IT IS Race 6: 11-TYPHOON ZED, 3-STANZOUT, 2-LET GO THOMMO Race 7: 3-ON A JEUNE, 7-TRICK OF LIGHT, 12-FIRE IN THE NIGHT Race 8: 8-MALDIVIAN, 18-MASTER O'REILLY, 10-MANDELA Race 9: 8-GUNFIRE MESSIAH, 4-OKAY OKY, 7-POLISH CLOWN Race 10: 12-SMILE OF DESIRE, 6-CARAT CAKE, 8-SOARESSA

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 6-ROYALE HARMONY 7-TRY THIS 1st W=$11.10 *** nice value winner *** 3-CLUNY

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 1-DANEDINA 2nd W=$2.80 4-COT CASE 13-BLACKEN

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 7-VANDALO 1st W=$8.60 *** best each way *** 1-GREEN MANKINI SCR 11-VALIDATOR

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 5-JABAL TARIK 1-VILLIAN 3rd W=$2.20 3-PILLAR OF HERCULES 1st W=$5.10

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 2-VORMISTA 7-SOVEREIGN MISS 1-LIKE IT IS 3rd W=$13.50

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 11-TYPHOON ZED 2nd W=$5.50 3-STANZOUT 2-LET GO THOMMO 3rd W=$5.40

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 3-ON A JEUNE 7-TRICK OF LIGHT SCR 12-FIRE IN THE NIGHT 1st W=$4.40

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 8-MALDIVIAN SCR 18-MASTER O'REILLY 1st W=$5.20 10-MANDELA

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 8-GUNFIRE MESSIAH 4-OKAY OKY 7-POLISH CLOWN 2nd W=$15.30

RACE 10: RESULTS

Tips: 12-SMILE OF DESIRE SCR 6-CARAT CAKE 8-SOARESSA 2nd W=$8.80

RACE 8: CAULFIELD CUP 2400 M GROUP 1

Tips: 8-MALDIVIAN SCR 18-MASTER O'REILLY 1st W=$5.20 10-MANDELA

Others: 14, 16, 12,11,19 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 8-MALDIVIAN, 9-CINQUE CENTO, 12-ANNENKOV Handy : 7-PURPLE MOON, 10-MANDELA, 16-ESKIMO QUEEN, 19-SARRERA Back : 1-TAWQEET, 2-BLUE MONDAY, 3-BLUTIGEROO, 4-RAILINGS, 5-MAYBE BETTER, 6-BLACK TOM, 11-SCENIC SHOT, 13-ANAMATO, 14-DOURO VALLEY , 15-SIRMIONE, 17-PRINCESS COUP, 18-MASTER O'REILLY , 20-MOLOTOV Chances: 8-MALDIVIAN has always shown promise and is absolutely flying this time in – really seems to have hit peak form and that is exactly the type of horse that wins this race. Been thereabouts in every start this time in, 1st 2 runs were OK without being anything special, really liked the run in the Naturalism here 3 starts back when did not lead, sat just off the speed, hooked around them and went for home and put a space on them very very quickly. Then led on tricky track at MV when the rails was off, so had to plot a mid course path and absolutely slaughtered them. Got to sit and sprint here in Yalumba and went home full of running. Drops 5kgs from that run, so cannot see anything behind him beating him today. Does look the one to beat. Barrier 1 is probably a slight concern, as may have to be used up to press forward, or even worse, gets stuck in just behind the leaders. Actually don’t think he needs to lead anyway, run in Naturalism showed that, and he is a sit/sprint horse with a fantastic turn of foot and that is what you need to win this race. Odds seem just a little short to us, wouldn’t be surprised if you get closer to $3.50 on the tote on race day. One to beat. SCR 10-MANDELA (NZ) has had the 3 runs in over in NZ and is going along nicely, and has risked catching all sorts of Aussie Germs by coming on over. Gave the (17) 4kgs last start, and only has to give her 1.5 kgs today – and was only beaten less than 1 L, so looks nicely weighted. Has proven himself over here before a couple of times – always a bit suss on these types unless they are proven. Actually think he is in with a good rough chance, actually has some form, and most of these do not, comes in with nice light weight, and can position up near the speed if he wants. Think that puts him in the finish and definitely one you want to put in at the odds on offer. Solid rough chance. 12-ANNENKOV has been coming along very nicely. 1st preparation in Aus, had the 6 runs in, can sit not far off the pace and does stick on OK. Nice win at Mornington when got out and running early after a tear away leader and the pace on suited, then OK run in sit/sprint here last week which really is not his go. Gets a lovely 6.5kgs weight drop from that race, although still not enough to beat the winner. Looks a bit one paced to us, but think that is a good thing, drawn out a little and ridden wide and forward, think he represents a genuine chance here at huge odds. Has winning form – so many of these do not, and this is the one to put in if you are looking for a big trifecta. Good rough chance. 14-DOURO VALLEY is racing in career best form and does go well this track. Got out and ran on OK in Turnbull, drops 3kgs from Turnbull run. Nice win here before that when the favourite today shot clear of him and he came out and ran him down – and meets him better on weights today. Drawn well to get a good run, does drop back, but has the turn of foot to put himself into the race. Funny that he is suddenly a major contender in this race as a 6YO, but form is right, has winning form, and has to go in. Strong chance. 2nd W=$7.70 16-ESKIMO QUEEN has big raps on her, jockey keeps insisting would have won the Underwood if he didn’t have to stop and take a different run just after turning for home. Fitter for 3 runs in, flew home 1st up, then struck trouble in Underwood, and just ran on a little in Turnbull. Drops 3 kgs from that run. Is a 4YO mare with no weight, which you always need to be careful of in this race, especially if they are the classic winners of the Autumn/Winter coming through. Nicely drawn and probably races a lot closer to the speed here today, and think that makes a huge difference. Still can’t be entirely convinced of form, but if we can forgive Turnbull run that she must be a strong chance – looks like she is close to peaking and should have a fair bit of improvement left. She probably does start under the odds though as been spruiked a fair bit. Chance. SCR 18-MASTER O'REILLY is racing in fine form, flew home here 1st up, won – and slaughtered them – against the racing pattern 2nd up, got lost under lights in leader dominated race at MV, but was soundly beaten by the favourite here, and then won against reasonable company here last start. Hasn’t finished further back than 4th in last 13 starts now, which is damm impressive. Light weight, in winning form, has drawn well, pretty hard to ignore. Did race a bit closer to the speed when last in work, and just wonder if he might get ridden closer today from good barrier – main worry with him is he has been dropping well out in his races, and think that spells trouble today – trying to come from well back in Caulfield Cups. Have to respect. 1st W=$5.20 Place: 2-BLUE MONDAY is an overseas import who has been going along just OK. 3 runs in and will be fitter and likely to appreciate getting out to this distance range. Like that he is drawn out a little and these types have gone OK in recent years – ridden wide and loving the pressure from a long way out. Drops 1.5kgs from Turnbull run, but those that finished in front of him are dropping more, so doesn’t look well weighted at all. Has ran on just OK in the lead up races, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him around the placings at big odds, but only a very rough place chance at best. If not, at least an excuse to pull out your old New Order vinyl. 4th W=$37.30 3-BLUTIGEROO hasn’t really lived up to the rap that we put on him at the start of the spring. Does normally take a few runs in each time to find form, has had the 5 this time in and they have just been OK. Was noticeable that he finally started to run on and make some ground in the Turnbull, even though was beaten a long way. Has been crying out to drop back to a handicap, and does drop 3.5kgs from Turnbull run, but again, those who finished well in front of him have the same or better weight drops, and does seem weighted up to best in this. Would need a wet track to really be a factor here, but rough place chance if he finally finds some form. 5-MAYBE BETTER has had a solid preparation, 6 runs this time in, looking to repeat last year’s effort in Melbourne Cup when had a long, hard preparation and ran into the placings. These types are really frustrating for punters, they are only set for the major cups, and in this case, probably more just for the Melbourne Cup, so all the lead up runs are just not suitable and all they do is run on for 4th in a “good Melbourne Cup trial”. Of course, come Cup Day, they only get one chance, and then this preparation is all over with barely a yelp. Has made good ground in all his lead ups, so worth consideration, and is well drawn here. Gets nice 5kgs weight drop from fast finishing effort in Yalumba last week. Really want something in winning form in this race, so despite looking promising suspect he will only be fighting out the placings at very best. Place. 11-SCENIC SHOT almost causes a momentous boilover in the Turnbull at huge odds, and was seriously wearing down the winner over the last 50M. Drops 4kgs into this, and they did space the rest of the field, so if you believe the form (and can’t see any reason why not too), he is right in this. Like that he has had the 5 runs in, this is a high pressure 2400M and a few extra runs never go astray. Jockey is also riding very well at the moment. Wasn’t hopeless in runs before that, was peeling out and looming up and just dying on the run, carrying big weights. WA form is solid and will appreciate the firm track here today. Have to admit the wide barrier is a major turn off though, think he is a real chance with the right run, but can see him dropping right out from this barrier and don’t think he is he type to come storming from last and run over them. Worth consideration, but probably prefer place 17-PRINCESS COUP (NZ) is another lightly weighted 4YO mare and even better is one in winning form. Won in a blanket finish last start, does meets the (10) 2.5kgs worse off from that run. 3YO classic winner in NZ, and looks like she won that race easily, not that familiar with her racing style but does look like she drops a long way out of her ground. Drawn outside here and likely to get long way back – to be honest, you just don’t win Caulfield Cups coming from last – you run on for unlucky 4ths, but you don’t win, and find that a major turn off. Rough chance only. 3rd W=$10.50 19-SARRERA just can’t get a break, keeps trying to get into this field, his fake ID looks genuine, think they would give him credit for persistence. Fitter for the 3 runs in and they have all been OK – was an eye catching run running on at Morn, and then right in the finish with big weight at Cranbourne. Best form is definitely on wet tracks though and this track likely to be quite firm. Actually would consider him a rough chance if he got a start, really is just about to strike form – if he doesn’t start here, do back him wherever he gets a run. Rough. SCR Sacking: 1-TAWQEET won this race last year in grand style, bursting and dodgy and weaving through on the inside. Showed a brief glimpse of form in the Autumn, and had the 3 runs back this time in and they have all been absolutely horrendous. Word is mind is on other things – the lovely ladies. Jockey keeps trying to talk up his chances, but the form does not lie. No 4-RAILINGS won this race 2 years ago, and has mixed form a little since then. Not won a race since 2005 Caulfield Cup. Last spring was really disappointing when contested all of the majors and never got warm. Form over autumn this year was a lot more encouraging. Has gone across the Tasman to new stable and had just the 2 runs this time in over there – both of which haven’t shown much. Drawn out, drops back and no form. No 6-BLACK TOM ran on just a little last start when stepped out to the 2500M. Had the 3 runs in, and will be fitter for the run over the distance, and did make good ground here 2 starts back. Actually gets nice weight drop from the Naturalism, meets the (8) and the (14) 3kgs better off. WA staying form is solid. Drawn out and suspect he drops a long way out in this, can’t see him having the turn of foot to get into the race. No 7-PURPLE MOON (IRE) is the only international going around this year. Well known we don’t have any time for these ones, although they do tend to start long, long odds these days as punters automatically skip over them. Drawn out is a plus, and these guys go best when ridden wide and up on the lead in tough grinding performances, so suspect they will go forward on this. Not interested anyway. Main disappointment is that he wasn’t named Purple Rain so we could do Prince gags. 9-CINQUE CENTO is an honest on pace mare, whose only run over this distance was a 2nd in the QLD Oaks. Has been running mainly as a miler since then, but no reason why she cannot run this out, and solid 2000M on pace win over QLD winter this year. Fitter for the 3 runs in, struck trouble 1st up when was tiring anyway, had to drag in tear away leader at MV – but that form hasn’t really held up, and led and gave in very quickly in Turnbull. Drops 2.5kgs on that run, but plenty who finished in front of her are getting bigger weight drops. Really comes down to how the Turnbull form stacks up, and guess we are not going to know till after the event. On pace mares can usually go along OK in this, so maybe worth throwing in for a place, bit uncertain about whether she is going along well enough to be any sort of serious winning chance, so leaving out. 13-ANAMATO is a fairly smart mare who has gone largely unnoticed because of her more famous stable mate. Only the 2 runs in, but was making good ground at end of last run, and drops 4kgs into this, but actually meets the (8) worse on weight for getting beaten last start. Proved herself ultra tough with U.S visit earlier in the year. Fought on pretty well over this trip in the Oaks as a 3YO. Well known that 4YO mares have a great record in this race, and just about due for one to win again. She is hard and tough, though coming into a pressure race with only the 2 runs in, up 400M does look an ask. Barrier is a big negative, drawn inside, and she does tend top drop back these days, so is going to be searching for runs back on the fence. Light weight, but prefer to let run. 15-SIRMIONE has always mixed form a little and definitely needs a wet track to show best, which isn’t going to happen here. Fitter for the 4 runs in, 1st two runs look promising and was unlucky not to win at MV 2nd up when could not get out. Then ridden forward against normal pattern when very disappointing here in Naturalism, and made a little ground late at Flem, but was beaten a very long way in a pretty weak race. QLD winter form was good, but does drop a long way out and would need a stack of luck to come from last here. Form just not good enough. No 20-MOLOTOVis unlikely to get a run. Is well drawn and has shown some promise, ran a place in the Underwood last year. Fitter for the 3 runs in, always looked like winning at Flem 2 starts back when did beat the (14), one of the main chances here, but yet another who flopped at Flem in the Turnbull so very hard to line that form up. Not entirely convinced this is his best distance and prefer others. Summary: Always a great betting race, and every year we get one that just sticks out a mile on form, a lightly raced 4 or 5 year old that has reached career peak this season, has been winning at WFA and gets in with a light weight and looks incredibly hard to beat. And often they win too, though EL SEGUNDO and SPHENOPHTYA in the last two years have let the side down. So obviously the favourite 8-MALDIVIAN looks the one to beat, but there are other chances, and he does look too short at the moment at around $2.50 First thing is to line up the weights from the normal lead up races, the Turnbull and Yalumba are the lead up races to focus on, and usually you don’t need to go much past the 1st 3 home in each of these races to find the winner here. From the Turnbull, bolter 11-SCENIC SHOT was 2nd and drops 4kgs here, and finished well ahead of 2-BLUE MONDAY (drops 1.5 kgs, beaten 6.5 L), 3-BLUTIGEROO (drops 3.5kgs, beaten 6.7L), 9-CINQUE CENTO (drops 2.5 kgs, beaten 9.7L), 14-DOURO VALLEY (drops 3kgs, beaten 3.5L), 16-ESKIMO QUEEN (drops 3kgs, beaten 6.6L). If the form holds up hard to see any of these turning the tables on the (11) and the (14) who finished well clear of the rest. From the Yalumba, 8-MALDIVIAN won and drops a whopping 6kgs, 5-MAYBE BETTER (drops 5kgs, beaten 4.3L), 12-ANNENKOV (drops 6.5kgs, beaten 5.4L), 13-ANAMATO (drops 4kgs, beaten 3.75L), shows why we have such a short priced favourite. This races are super competitive, and if you look back through past winners you really need to be in winning form, and peak form to pick up these races. Tactical speed is important here too, as are barriers. Need to be able to take a position in running and put yourself into the race on the turn, so many horses drop back and run on for 3rd, 4th and 5th in good Melbourne Cup trials, but that is no good to us today. Usually they do run along in this race, and the pressure goes on from a long way out. There doesn’t seem to be much speed this year though, mainly 8-MALDIVIAN, 9-CINQUE CENTO, with 12-ANNENKOV sitting wide just off them. Expect 10-MANDELA, 16-ESKIMO QUEEN to both race closer to the speed. Putting the obvious pick 8-MALDIVIAN on top, hasn’t just been winning - has been dominating, suspect he will not lead, but sit just behind them and sprint clear on the home turn. Not sure he represents value though at the odds on offer. For dangers, looking to the other winning form lines, so 18-MASTER O'REILLY who hopefully will race closer to the speed from good barrier, and not ruling out NZ visitor 10-MANDELA. Those wanting a roughie give 12-ANNENKOV a try, will sit close to the lead and grind on and give you some buzz for your buck, and maybe the 19-SARRERA if he gets a run. The Caulfield Cup this year is proudly sponsored by the Letter “M” . One to risk: 13-ANAMATO Roughie: 12-ANNENKOV, 19-SARRERA (scr) RESULTS : Again, you need to be in winning form to win the major cups, makes it much easier to narrow down the chances. 18-MASTER O'REILLY wins extending away from them, field were well spaced and really not sure what to make of the rest, and if any of them are going to be live Melbourne Cup chances. Trifecta and nice first four covered in the selections of winning and place chances in the form commentry, which was pretty close to the mark - even roughie 12-ANNENKOV gives backers heart flutters when he kicks 3 lengths clear and full of running on the home turn at 60-1 (OK, we may have gone the early crow and starting barracking a little early - he stopped dead about 10 metres later). To be honest, think the rest are ordinary and have to try and work out where the Melbourne Cup dangers are going to come from.