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| CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 17th Oct 2009 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FROSTY - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Been cold and grey and windy this week in Melbourne town, just a little difficult to know exactly how wet this track is going to come up. There were some very heavy showers Tues night, yet the track was still a surprising GOOD (3) on Weds. Persistent showers since then and a track that has been cut up and you would think the wet would start to sink in. However, showers are easing into Fri, and clearing for Sat (just bloody cold), so suspect this track might not come up quite as wet as most people think. Done the form for a genuine dead track, but no worse then dead and not enough for the out and out wet trackers to be a factor. Last week at the Caulfield Guineas those racing on pace were definitely advantaged and it was hard to make ground out wide. Unusually this pattern persisted on Weds, usually they come off the rails and runners on win, but again we found on pacers and those closest to the rail were winning. Rail goes OUT 6M today from TRUE position both those meetings. Normally on Caulfield Cup day the track will favour on pacers for the early races before evening out later in the day when they will start to come off the rails to make their runs – depends on how much the track cuts up with the rain. Despite the big program and big fields there seems to be a clear cut 2-3 chances in every race, so most of the tips are the obvious selections and doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of value. Betting plan is maybe to take weighted win bets on 2-3 runners in each run, suspect most of the favoured chances are going to win. Doubling up to $100, but mainly to spread win bets over the day , and hopefully at least one of these should get up. RESULTS : Few showers around and very cold and windy, but sun comes out later in the day. First couple of races are won by swoopers, then as track dries out most of the rest of the program is won by on pacers. Even racing overall BEST BET : Race 6: 2-HOT DANISH $20 WIN 2nd W=$2.80 Well documented that this was ridden far too far back from outside barrier at Flem. Was an on pacers track that day and jockey totally missed the boat and running on when it was all over. Fitter for the 2 runs in, lots of speed in this race and should just sit behind it and come out at the right time. Probably going to start short though. RESULTS : Had every chance sitting behind the speed, loomed up in the straight but the winner TYPHOON TRACY was far too good and might prove to be something quite exceptional. BEST WIN : Race 1: 8-RACHINE $10 WIN Fitter for the 2 runs in, should have won last start when had trouble getting through on the inside on the turn. RESULTS : DOes nothing BEST WIN : Race 3: 2-LIVIA, 5-VALDEMORO $10 WIN 2nd 5-VALDEMORO W=$8.30 These two stick out in Race 3, the 2-LIVIA was having a push and shove most of the way down the straight last start and only finally got out late and finished on well. The 5-VALDEMORO has only had the 3 starts and is still learning what it is all about, but big loping type looking for distance. Suspect they will fight this out, happy to back both of them. RESULTS : Ah gotta love the punt. Our two picks are travelling sweetly around the 300M mark, when they both go for the same run and knock each other over !. Winner RUN FOR NAARA bursts clear with big weight and was very impressive, but both of these would've made a contest of it. QUINELLA : Race 4: 1-ONEMORENOMORE, 2-SHAMONLINE WARRIOR x $10 1st 2-SHAMONLINE WARRIOR W=$3.20, 2nd 1-ONEMORENOMORE W=$5.60 QUINELLA = $9.30 = 9.3 x 10 = $93 Small field and there might not be much speed in this. Expect the Sydney visitor Race 4: 1-ONEMORENOMORE to sit handy and probably hit the lead in the straight, just a matter of whether the best local heading towards the derby 2-SHAMONLINE WARRIOR can run him down. Suspect they will fight out the finish. RESULTS : Nice collect to make up for disaster in the previous race. 1-ONEMORENOMORE badly over races but leads around the home turn with 1st 2-SHAMONLINE WARRIOR stalking him. Quinella was never in doubt coming down the straight. RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 8,9 : 1,6,9,11,13 / 4,5 x $2 = $20 1st 1-VIEWED W=$12.40 / 1st 4-FIRST COMMAND W=$2.50 RUNNING DOUBLE = $38.90 = 38.90 x 2 = $77.80 Sure to be plenty of value in running double out of the Caulfield Cup. Think you can actually back 4-5 runners in that race, all $10-$20, go wide and use the value. We have taken our top 4 winning chances and our best roughie. Race 9 happy to narrow it down to 4-FIRST COMMAND who might get a soft lead here, and strong effort to lead all the way down the outside rail last start till last millimetre and 5-SECRET FLYER who has talent and looks better suited here than last 2 runs. If you are taking a quaddie think you can go narrow and just go two out on the (4) and (5) in Race 9. RESULTS : We find the Cup winner and as predicted the favourite in the next race gets a soft lead and never looks like losing. Running Double pays OK, was probably expecting a bit more, but 4-FIRST COMMAND does start very well backed. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 10-SYMPHONY MISS $3 WIN $7 PLACE Unfortunately this one also comes up in the race where we have our best bet, but fitter for the 2 runs in and finished on very well last start. Does strike a pretty strong field in this, but lots of speed is likely to set it up for those running on and this one is a strong finisher. Looks good value at the $25. RESULTS : Misses start and does nothing BEST ROUGH : Race 10: 17-PACHANGA (emerg) $2.50 EW Don’t normally like backing horses 1st up and this one does has a shocking win strike rate – but – coming into the last race of the week the track is normally cut up and favouring those running on. Need to find something at value for a get out bet, this goes OK when if finds its best form, will be running on late and might do something fresh. RESULTS : Just a play bet really, does nothing TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more QUINELLA : Race 6: 2-HOT DANISH - 10-SYMPHONY MISS x $5 Let’s take the best bet and best rough which unfortunately come up in the same race and should be good value in this quinella. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $170.80 NET : $+70.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 8-RACHINE, 10-SUBLIMITY, 12-OFF THE PLANET Race 2: 2-BAWAARDI, 4-WEASLEY, 3-SIGMA Race 3: 2-LIVIA, 5-VALDEMORO, 4-SILKYANNA Race 4: 1-ONEMORENOMORE, 2-SHAMONLINE WARRIOR, 3-GATHERING Race 5: 5-RIGHTFULLY YOURS, 2-ROYAL DISCRETION, 14-FIST OF FURY Race 6: 2-HOT DANISH, 10-SYMPHONY MISS, 4-NEROLI Race 7: 2-BAUGHURST, 5-PACINO, 12-HUME Race 8: 9-PREDATORY PRICER, 1-VIEWED, 13-LIGHT VISION Race 9: 4-FIRST COMMAND, 5-SECRET FLYER, 1-TURFFONTEIN Race 10: 3-JAALIPPY, 10-BELLE’S READY, 17-PACHANGA (emerg), 12-BOOGALOO |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-RACHINE 10-SUBLIMITY 1st W=$9.60 12-OFF THE PLANET |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-BAWAARDI 3rd W=$3.20 4-WEASLEY 2nd W=$3.30 3-SIGMA |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-LIVIA 5-VALDEMORO 2nd W=$8.30 4-SILKYANNA |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ONEMORENOMORE 2nd W=$5.60 2-SHAMONLINE WARRIOR 1st W=$3.20 3-GATHERING 3rd W=$5.30 Quinella : $9.30 Trifecta : $66.90 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-RIGHTFULLY YOURS 2nd W=$3.70 2-ROYAL DISCRETION 14-FIST OF FURY |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-HOT DANISH 2nd W=$2.80 10-SYMPHONY MISS 4-NEROLI |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-BAUGHURST 1st W=$3.60 5-PACINO 3rd W=$13.80 12-HUME |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-PREDATORY PRICER 1-VIEWED 1st W=$12.40 13-LIGHT VISION |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-FIRST COMMAND 1st W=$2.50 5-SECRET FLYER 1-TURFFONTEIN 2nd W=$19.20 Quinella : $23.10 |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-JAALIPPY 10-BELLE’S READY 3rd W=$12.60 17-PACHANGA |
| RACE 8: CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 9-PREDATORY PRICER 1-VIEWED 1st W=$12.40 13-LIGHT VISION |
| Others: 6,4,11,19,20 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 11-ZAVITE, 13-LIGHT VISION Handy : 2-KIRKLEES, 4-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE, 7-ROMAN EMPEROR, 8-SARRERA, 10-RED RULER, 14-DAFFODIL, 15-READY TO LIFT, 18-ALLEZ WONDER, 19-BAUGHURST, 22-MISS DARCEY Back : 1-VIEWED, 3-C'EST LA GUERRE, 5-FIUMICINO, 6-MASTER O'REILLY, 9-PREDATORY PRICER, 12-HARRIS TWEED, 16-RED LORD, 17-VIGOR, 21-NEWPORT Chances: 1-VIEWED is last years Melb Cup winner who has been coming along a treat this spring. Probably wasn’t that highly rated even after last year’s win, but looks like he is going on with it and is going to be a major factor in both cups again this year. Ran on nicely in this race last year when found trouble and was an eye catching run. That was off only 2 runs in as well when was SCR at the barrier in one of his lead up runs. 3 runs this time in probably means he will go even better this year. Only 3 runs in though and up 400M into this race. Continued form from Cup win with decent Syd autumn form. Three runs this time in have all been good. 1st up was very forward when up and racing just behind the speed early on, 2nd up worked home well matching it with EFFICENT in the Underwood who won the start after, 3rd up again was working home very well at the end of the race. He looks primed to do something today. Even though he won the Melbourne Cup on a dry track he is probably better with some give in the ground so track would suit. Has a Melbourne Cup winner ever won the Caulfield Cup the next year? It’s an unusual feat. Question mark is really about being topweight – 57 kgs – looks an ask. Looking back though SYDESTON and NORTHERLY have both managed it. Just think he is ready to produce, most of these have dubious form and like that he ran well in this race last year when was probably going worse. Strong chance.1st W=$12.40 4-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE is the other overseas runner and suspect with the Oliver / Cumani combination is going to start favourite on the tote. This stable does seem to have sussed out the Australian conditions and the right horses to bring down here which has to be respected. Drawn OK and probably races handy. Again total unknown and a bit difficult to get over enthused about placing money on unknown quantities. Concern is probably going to start under the odds on the tote with weight of support and lot of punters heading to the internationals just cause the locals are too hard to sort out. Suspect $5 to $6 favourite on the tote? Think that is unders. Winning chance, but won’t be backing him. 6-MASTER O'REILLY won this race in 2007 when favourite was SCR at the barrier and he got a dream run along the rails into the race with only 50.5 kgs. Some doubted him saying he had beaten a weak field, but he has shown over the 2 years since he has a far bit of ability. Ran on for nice 4th in last years Melb Cup, and has flashed home strongly in several WFA races since his Caulfield Cup win. Interestingly he ran on pretty well for 7th in this race last year – off only 2 runs in and we thought he was one run short going into the race – most winners have had at least 3 runs in or more. This year he has had 3 runs in and is going along just as well or better – he is finishing on strongly most races. Has drawn an outside barrier so is going to have to drop well back. Main problem is probably isn’t at his best on wet tracks – he wants it no worse than dead. But think he rates a genuine chance, he is going well and like that he has had an extra run in this year. Chance. 9-PREDATORY PRICER has been pretty much doing everything right this time in – just needs to get a slightly longer neck. Has been poking his neck out and leading in the last 20M of both the Underwood and Turnbull Stakes and just grabbed on the line. Won the Liston 1st up when tear away leader set it up for run on 1400M horses. Ridden forward and over raced and flopped 2nd up, but jockey didn’t seem too fussed. Raced on speed again in Underwood, still doing plenty wrong and over racing, and only just grabbed on the line. Blinkers came off in Turnbull, still did a few things wrong, and only just grabbed in the finish. Drops 3kgs on that run. In form, lightly weighted 4YOs have been the way to go in this race over the last 10 years and he ticks those boxes. Often they have been ones on the rise and started under the odds, so think the $10 or so (and drifting) about him is actually pretty good odds. Regular jockey back on board is a big plus. Thing is he normally is ridden from behind and just wonder if he is better coming from back ? OK on dead ground, probably a query anything worse. Drawn wide, so listen out to see where they are going to ride him – probably prefer if they let him drop back. Ticks a lot of boxes and think has to be respected here. Strong chance. 11-ZAVITE is a solid on pace dry track stayer who is tough to run down when he finds form. Fitter for the 4 runs in, like that he has had the run over the 2400M and went OK here last week - there was actually a fair bit of pressure up front in that race cause everyone had worked out it was a on pacers track, which set it up for the runners on. Think that is a sign he is just about ready to produce. Drawn nice barrier and looks the leader here – and that can be a big plus cause those racing back in the field often find trouble in Caulfield Cups. Won Adel Cup with 57kgs. Is best on dry tracks though and probably wants it dead or better. But think he represents a solid rough chance in this at huge odds, suspect he will lead and kick on. Value runner for those seeking the monster trifectas and first fours. Rough. 13-LIGHT VISION is a favourite of ours and has pretty much solely funded the betting portfolio over the last two years. Honest, consistent tough on pacer who finds form and keeps it. Nice reliable bet. Has had the 5 runs this time in, so has a big plus on most of these if it turns into a hard slog. Been carrying big weights in weaker handicaps so drops to a very nice weight here. Handles all track conditions. Last start winner – which is a big plus for this race – and only 3 last start winners in the field this year. Class if of course the test – but to be honest not sure many of these are actually going that well and he is in form with no weight. Outside barrier is of course the problem, but don’t think will have that much trouble going forward – BARBARICUS did it last year form an outside barrier, and often in Caulfield Cups the on pacers can stick on whilst the rest of the field finds trouble. Probably goes forward and sits outside the (11) on the speed. Might be playing favourites but can see a lot of plusses for this one. Suspect he is going to drift as well. Solid chance. Place: 3-C'EST LA GUERRE is one we have firmly stamped as “great big girly tease”. Loomed up time after time last spring but never seriously got into a finish till Melbourne Cup day when put in a huge run from well back. Has continued to tease this time in, loomed up 1st up like he was going to win – but died on run. 2nd up was ridden forward against normal pattern and did nothing. Just a run last start when made a little ground. Fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to do something – must likely ran on for his normal “oh isn’t that a great Cup trial” well beaten 4th placing. On the plus side does look like he is a wet tracker so might get conditions to suit. Is striking a fairly weak field here. Put him in as a rough chance as suspect something is going to come out and do a form reversal and win this, but anchor him in 4th for a fun First Four. Place. 7-ROMAN EMPEROR is a lightly raced 4YO and 4YOs have had a good record in this race over the last 10 years. Fitter for the 4 runs in , hasn’t shown a great deal of form, but is going along well enough to maintain interest. AJC Derby winner and funnily enough it’s actually the AJC Derby place getters that have won this race – not the winners. Probably a query on a track worse than dead. Big plus with this guy is that he has drawn a barrier and can race handy – so probably gets run of race in this. Not sure his form this time in is good enough to recommend too strongly, but 4YO, well drawn, on pacer means he is one to be scared of, and the one that will probably knock you out if you rule him out. Just wonder how well he is going ? Really had every chance in the Turnbull and they were running past him heading towards the line. Suspect he will find one better today. Definite place chance though as should get perfect run – put him in your trifectas and first fours. 2nd W=$13.40 14-DAFFODIL is one from NZ there is a little bit of interest in, nice draw, light weight, 4YO mare, and the 4YO mares had a hot trot during the 1990s in this race. Winner of the AJC Oaks in the autumn. 5th up and up 400M, but has actually shown some form this time in unlike many of these. Prefers just a little give in the ground which is what she is going to get. Would be good to see her midfield from nice barrier, but suspect she might drop back and she might get cluttered up in this field. Just not overly convinced about the strength of the NZ form and it has been a while since one has come over and won a Melbourne Spring features. Maybe just watch the market and how serious the support is, but prefer place at this stage. 4th W=$8.20 19-BAUGHURST (emerg) is an honest type who had a bumper spring last year, but hasn’t quite been going along as well this time in. Has had the 5 runs in so should be right at peak. Contested the early WFA races and he just isn’t up to that grade. Camped on pace in the Turnbull and stuck on pretty well over the last 200M when didn’t get much room at all. Suited back to handicaps and is going to appreciate the big weight drop. Wet track wouldn’t worry. Is drawn wide though and does like to race handy so is probably going to get caught very wide in this. Suspect he is also better around 2000M and the 2400M is as far as he wants. But he is much better suited today back to a handicap and think he is worth a rough place chance. SCR 20-SHOCKING (emerg) is a 4YO with no weight and they have a good record recently in this race. Fitter for the 4 runs in and like that he has had the 2400M run. Been running into form and just about ready to peak today. Does drop a long way out of his ground and needs a solid tempo and some luck – and you need extra extra luck if you are talking about coming from well back in a Caulfield Cup. Drawn wide barrier and no choice but to drop well back, but should get to middle of the track and run on OK. If he gets a start that is. Be interesting if he gets a run and runs well - cause everyone will be saying “well just imagine if ALCOPOP was in the field”. If he starts suspect he might actually do something. Did carry light weight last week and this is much harder task. Rough place chance if starts. SCR Sacking: 2-KIRKLEES is one of the OS horses that everyone seems to be warming to. Godolphin stable won this race last year with an outsider. Those of you watching at home can play Caulfield Cup Day Bingo and have a drink every time the term “powerful Godolphin stable” gets used. You simply cannot use the word “Godolphin” without the word “powerful” for some reason. One of the few last start winners in this race which is a big plus. Drawn a nice barrier and barriers are important in Caulfield Cups and suspect he might race handy. Did have a setback on his trip, had a bit of a temperature when he arrived and often with these internationals any setback can be bad news. Really a total unknown, and we just don’t like betting on unknowns. Weak field this year and the internationals are starting to look more of threat in this race every year – they can roll out wide on speed a long way out and stick on. Just wonder if he is getting supported cause punters like him, or because they can’t work out the rest of the field? No surprise to see him win, just cannot back him with any confidence so prefer to put our money on one we know something about and know how it is going. 5-FIUMICINO is a Sydney stayer who best form is on extremely wet tracks – so only back him if all water restrictions in Melbourne are suddenly lifted. Has managed some big race wins – BMW and AJC Derby in Sydney – but both on heavy tracks. Fitter for the 3 runs in and especially the run over the 2400M. 1st two runs this time in were in Melbourne and showed nothing, then went chasing clouds up to Sydney and ran on OK on very heavy track in Metropolitan Likely to drop well back here from outside barrier. Did nothing in this race last year on dry track. Needs it seriously wet. No 8-SARRERA has made an amazing transformation late in life – average to better than average wet track stayer who won a Warrnambool Cup which looked about his go, but come out in winter 2008 and won a Queen Elizabeth and a Doomben Cup, and followed it up with another QE placing this year. Since then he has got to go to Singapore and NZ which must have been fun. Had the 3 runs in over in NZ so hard to line up. He can race handy if asked and has drawn a nice barrier so probably won’t be that far away. Trick to him is that he really wants the wet track – slow or worse. At the moment not sure we are going to get that, but if the rain comes elevate him cause is well drawn, normally finds best form at 4th run in and probably going to start over the odds. Passing for the time being – watch the clouds though. 10-RED RULER is fitter for the 4 runs in and is going along well enough to keep us interested. Meets the (9) worse on weights from the Turnbull, and was beaten home by that one. Probably goes forward here and suspect might get caught wide. Forward showing in this race last year and has had one extra run this time in – from memory though he did loom up threateningly last year and not really finish it off. Led and stuck on OK in Sandown Classic last year. Has been thereabouts at the 4 runs this time in, just felt last 2 runs he really had every chance, got perfect runs, and just wasn’t good enough. Definitely seems to need it firm and even dead track might be an issue. Probably going to get caught wide and don’t think he is good enough for this. Passing. 12-HARRIS TWEED sounds more like a brand of coffee or men’s suits than a Caulfield Cup winner. And so ends our in depth form analysis…..NZ visitor, 3 runs in over there going along just OK. AJC Derby place getter. 4YO. Light weight. Handles wet OK. Few things to like about him. Bit surprised about the $41 on offer though – suggests not much interest. For one coming over from NZ would probably prefer to see some money as a sign of confidence in how he is going. Issue we can see is inside barrier – likely to drop back here and get squashed in big field along inside. Just can’t be sure about form and prefer to see how he goes. 15-READY TO LIFT was only paid up for when this field fell away, which isn’t a sign of confidence. No weight and seems to handle all conditions. Fitter for the 4 runs in and guess you can forgive run on extremely heavy bog track in the Metropolitan. Can race handy. Concern is though just not up to this class. Passing. 16-RED LORD is one we have a bit of time for, but have to admit is out of his depth in the higher grade races. Needs a firmish track so show best. Nice win here threading through the field in the Naturalism – it was a great ride, but think it was the jockey who won the race, not the horse. Ridden forward in the Turnbull and stopped very quickly. Drawn an inside barrier here – interesting to see what they do – trainer did say going forward didn’t work in the Turnbull and best ridden back in the field. Had the 5 runs in so hard and fit. Class is the test though Passing. 17-VIGOR looked like he was going to be the one to beat in this race when he won the Makybe Diva, but form since this has been ordinary. Been taken very slowly by trainer to give him a serious crack at the Cups. Ran on very well 1st up, then 2nd up win was fantastic, went wide and early around the home turn on a track that was favouring on pacers, in a two horse battle down the straight and fought off his opponent even though he had a much harder run. 3rd up in Underwood was cramped for room a little but wouldn’t have won, wasn’t going well enough, then did strike trouble early on in the Turnbull and race was over after that. Can’t really be sure about how he is going – last two runs have been a bit disappointing – he has had excuses, but not sure the note from his mum is good enough. 4YO, no weight, the one on the up – in previous years these types have been heavily backed and done well in this race – if he had done anything in the last two runs would be going around a $4 to $5 solid favourite here. Drawn very wide here and hard to win from wide barriers in Caulfield Cups. Probably has to be ridden back in the field, but should get to the middle of the track and get a clear run. Bit unsure what to do with this one – he is very well weighted off the Underwood run and depends if there were genuine excuses for last start. We are a bit dubious about how well he is going and prefer to risk him today. Risking. 3rd W=$15.40 18-ALLEZ WONDER pulled off a long shot Toorak win last week to get her way into this field. Only the 3 runs in, but did have the 2000M run in between which should just about be enough for this. In winning form going into this which is a big plus. Drawn an nice barrier too and should get good run behind the speed here. Went OK as a 3YO filly without being outstanding. Probably a query on a track worse than dead. Just thought she had all the favours in the Toorak win, sat just behind the speed, the gap came at the right time and she poked through – really had everything fall into place. Just don’t think that was good enough win to suggest a rare Toorak-Caulfield Cup double was on the cards. Risking. 21-NEWPORT (emerg) is third emergency who is unlikely to get a run anyways. Sydney stayer who needs a genuine firm track and has been mixing his form for a while. No 22-MISS DARCEY (emerg) is fitter for the 3 runs in and has been coming along OK. Solid effort last start when loomed up and looked like was going to run past the winner, but just died on her run – which was fortunate cause we were on the other one and gave us one mighty scare. Should get a stack of improvement out of that run as was stepping up in distance. AJC Oaks place getter. Can race handy. Unlikely to get a start here, and probably outclassed, but she is ready to win so watch out for her where she starts next. Summary: A lot is going to depend on how wet this track comes up, but we think the showers have passed and doing the form for a genuine dead track only. No worse than dead. This race is a total headache this year with the two in form horses SPEED GIFTED and ALCOPOP both missing the race, leaving punters scratching their heads in an extremely even field. Seems to be the push is for the two overseas runners, 2-KIRKLEES and 4-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE, but we do wonder if that is because people are doubting the class of the field this year, think the overseas runners are going well, or are just finding it all too hard and heading to them for a easy get out. Definitely overseas runners have been going better in this race even though smaller numbers contest it than the Melbourne Cup, they can get out and get rolling in this race and even if they don’t win they are often around the placings. But we just don’t bet on unknowns, prefer to do the hard work and sort out the locals and stick with what we know. Normally the horses to follow into this race are lightly raced 4YO or 5YO, on the rise, hitting peak form this campaign, getting in with no weight off good WFA runs. Normally we have one of these and they start a heavily backed favourite. Closest thing we have this year is 9-PREDATORY PRICER who looks over the odds and 17-VIGOR who would have started a clear cut favourite here if he had maintained his form. Some points to consider when doing the form : - last 5 winners of this race have all been last start winners, as have 7 of the last 10 cup winners. There are very few last start winners in this race this year. The other three cup winners in this time period were last start place getters. As if often the case with these feature races, you need to be in peak form to win them, you need to be actively in the finish of your lead up runs, don’t get sucked in by those running on for “good cup trials” in their lead up runs. - often the winner will come through the Turnbull or Yalumba Stakes, though this has had a run of outs for the last 4 years. - apart from ALL THE GOOD last year and ETHEREAL in 2001, every other winner in the last 10 years has had at least 4 runs going into this race. Which is interesting, cause so many of these are going into this with only 3 runs in. Stepping up in distance to the 2400M, off 3 runs in, in a tough competitive race is a big ask. Lining up the weights from the Turnbull, 9-PREDATORY PRICER beaten ½ hd drops 3kgs, 10-RED RULER beaten 1.3L drops 1kgs, 19-BAUGHURST beaten 1.5L drops 3 kgs , 1-VIEWED beaten 3L drops 2kgs, 7-ROMAN EMPEROR beaten 3.4L drops 2.5kgs, 3-C'EST LA GUERRE beaten 3.6L drops 2kgs, 17-VIGOR beaten 8.5 L drops 6.5 kgs, 16-RED LORD beaten 11.1L drops 4kgs. So 9-PREDATORY PRICER seems to have these covered on weights, 17-VIGOR gets a huge weight drop if he had ran in the 1st five or so probably would be a well backed favourite today. From the Yalumba, 6-MASTER O'REILLY beaten 1.7L drops 4kgs and 19-BAUGHURST beaten 1.8L drops 6.5 kgs. If he gets into the field 19-BAUGHURST is actually quite well weighted in this based on his last 2 WFA runs. Pace here should be genuine, 11-ZAVITE should roll to the lead, 13-LIGHT VISION will come across gradually and go forward and sit outside him. Probably 10-RED RULER, 7-ROMAN EMPEROR and the two internationals sitting behind these. Likely that one of the internationals will roll forward out wide a fair way out and apply some pressure. Often in Caulfield Cups those back in the field can find trouble and the race is all over by the time they get out – just got a feeling 11-ZAVITE is going to stick on in the lead and have made it the best roughie. So many of these just don’t have any form, so think we have to stick to the in form 4YO 9-PREDATORY PRICER here. Think he is over the odds as often these in form lightly weighted 4YOs have been well backed into this race. Would be good to see him ridden a little quieter though, think he is better off coming from midfield than racing on the speed. 1-VIEWED is racing extremely well, even with the big weight think he is going to run on again and put in a good run in this race last year when missed a run in his preparation. 13-LIGHT VISION fit, in form, no weight, so few last start winners in this race, rolling on the speed has to be respected. 6-MASTER O'REILLY the only other one we would seriously consider a wining chance and 11-ZAVITE the best roughie. In a wide open race can actually back 3-4 horses to win and still make a nice profit, so spread the win bets around on $10 - $20 chances. One to risk: 18-ALLEZ WONDER Roughie: 11-ZAVITE The Key: Winning form and more than 3 runs this time in RESULTS : We find the Caulfield Cup winner in an even race, 1-VIEWED, who really seems to have gone on from his Melbourne Cup win last year. Great ride, and the cutting the corner trick seems to be the thing to do in Caulfield Cups these days. Field does finish very well spaced which is a little unusual, suggests the pressure went on a long way out. Find it hard to recommend anything behind the winner going forward, some are pushing for 7-ROMAN EMPEROR, but in last two starts he has had perfect run and both times horses have gone past him. 6-MASTER O'REILLY is the best of the runners on, making a lot of ground in the straight, but he did exactly the same thing last year and wasn't good enough to win the Melbourne Cup. Yet again the internationals flop - the racing media really have a lot to answer to for building them up year after year. We have never backed an international runner who hasn't had a start here first, and has probably saved us a fortune. Send your losing tickets on the internationals to the various sports desks of the newspapers, they would love to hear from you. |
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