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Money Back Special - Back SHOCKING (CITY SuperPrice) in the Caulfield Cup
- get your Money Back up to $200 if he finishes second at
IASbet




CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 16th Oct 2010
Track: HEAVY(8) - Weather: DREADFUL - Rail: OUT 6M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Absolutely dreadful weather going into the weekend, the BOM are predicting rain, wind, thunderstorms and hail. Party poopers. We had a solid rain event on Tuesday, and drizzle most of Wednesday, but actually windy, drying conditions Thursday. Drenching rain all Friday though and more to come Saturday, so looks like a seriously wet and extremely heavy track.

Been a definite on pace, close to the rail bias Caulfield Guineas Saturday and Thousand Guineas Wednesday which has been the pattern for a few years now. Rail goes out to the 6M position, and with a lot of rain around you would think the inside is going to chop up and they will be swooping towards the end of the day (then again, expected this on Weds, and it did not happen). Usually though at Caulfield on a wet track, rail out, they start coming off the rails early in the day, so avoid inside barriers in the second half of the program and look for those running on.

Going to be very difficult to pick out bets under these conditions, you would think half of the fields are going to be scratched, the inside will probably be off and they will be coming wide. Shame would have been a great betting program on a dry track. Look for genuine heavy track form, use the Racing Victoria website to check each wet track run carefully, and stick to those that are race fit and dropping back in distance who will run out the distances on a sloshy track.

RESULTS : Amazingly after continuous rain squalls and hail for 2 days they are still able to race on a HEAVY(10) track. Funny enough - the HEAVY(10) track races a lot fairer than the firmer tracks for either the Caulfield Guineas or Thousand Guineas meetings. A lot of horses didn't handle the wet, but it also took a fair bit of jockey skill to time rides correctly to give your mount the best chance. Betting Portfolio bombs out, tips start out really well but crash and burn by the end of the day.

BEST BET : Race 2: 1-SKILLED $7 WIN 2nd W=$2.50
QUINELLA : Race 2: 1-SKILLED, 4-MULTAHEM x $3 SCR $3
This one was SCR last start because of a elevated temperature, but his form looks top rate. Competitive in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude and probably would have been competitive in the Caulfield Guineas. Looks the one to beat against much weaker opposition here, but is going to start rather short and not a fan of backing short priced runners. Most of these are coming through the same Flemington race – and at the moment the odds for those runners look wrong to us. 4-MULTAHEM is the one we like from that race, will improve with only the 2 runs in and the step up in distance, wasn’t far behind the first two and meets them both much better on the weights. Currently around $11, so prefer to have a crack at the quinella for value rather than plonk on a short priced one.
RESULTS : Does start far too short, but even so is easily beaten.

BEST WIN : Race 8: 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE $10 WIN X
QUINELLA : Race 8: 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, 1-SHOCKING x $5 X
Really think there are only two winning chances in the Caulfield Cup, 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, 1-SHOCKING. Last start winners have a great record in this race, and there are normally only two to three last start winners in the field every year. 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, fit, in form, handles it wet and running along on the speed making his own luck looks the one to beat. Just a question of whether the 1-SHOCKING who goes really well on wet ground can come out and run over the top of him. Back the (13) to win and save on the quinella.
RESULTS : 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE presents but does not finish it off, 1-SHOCKING incredibly unlucky but just keeps losing it on the turn at Caulfield.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 5-RAINBOW STYLING $7.50 EW X
Think this one is vastly under rated and shame he is not entered for the Cups. Pretty good win/place strike rate, form is 1st rate – was jogging behind the speed and the Naturalism and was always going to win if he got clear. Then competitive in the JRA Cup – which is the form race of the spring, PRECEDENCE, LINTON, ALCOPOP. Drawn middle, can go forward and sit out wide in the best ground. Two of his heavy track runs have been 1st up, take them out and he is placed 2 from 2 on heavy and 3 from 4 on slow tracks – so should handle the conditions. Great each way bet.
RESULTS : Slightly disappointing run - finishes 5th, but did box seat and the run presented at the right time but he didn't run into it. Actually looked like he was struggling in the ground ?

BEST ROUGH : Race 5: 8-GENERAL TRUCE $2.50 EW 4th W=$8.60
Very consistent type who is finding it hard to win. Ran a great race at odds here last week against BLACK CAVAIR, was the only one to make ground in that race. Placed 6 from 10 so always thereabouts. The (4) probably starts favourite here, but look at the form – last time they met down the straight there was only 1L between them, and this one was carrying 1kgs more. 1100M suits this one better. Was on a heavy track too. Seems to go better here at Caulfield, and should run a race at nice each way odds.
RESULTS : Presents at the right time at the top of the straight, but he just isn't quite good enough in this class.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7 : 1-C’EST LA GUERRE at around $5.50 6th W=$5.50
One we love to hate so going to grab the opportunity to sink the boot in once again. Really has done pretty much nothing in 3 years over here. Has been competing in the top grade WFA races, occasionally he runs on for a nice 4th or 5th , but that’s about it. Finally broke through for a win last start in Sydney, small field, not overly confident of how strong the form is. Thing is as soon as there is even a single drop of rain everyone starts jumping on board cause he needs it wet. Suspect today there will be an avalanche of money for him to match the deluge coming down. Can’t seriously back him, even in these conditions, and even with a last start win – he just has far too many prior convictions.
RESULTS : Looms threatingly on the turn, then doesn't finish it off - yet another fine performance by one of the grandest money suckers going around.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE : Races 8,9 : 1,13 / 5,7,13,14,15 x 50 cents = $5 - / 2nd 15-JERSEY LILY W=$11.70
Always value in the doubles on feature race days with big fields. Again just narrow it down to the two main chances in the Caulfield Cup, the (1) and (13), and go wide with some value runners in Race 9 where there might be a result.

SPENT :$50
RETURN : $3
NET : $-47

The Tips:

Race 1: 12-WHAT A BEAUTY, 7-ALOTTA SPUR, 11-VOLANDO
Race 2: 1-SKILLED, 4-MULTAHEM, 3-MR CHARD
Race 3: 8-OUR PRIDE AND JOY, 10-PLACEMENT, 4-DIZLAGO
Race 4: 5-REKINDLED INTEREST, 1-RETRIEVE, 9-SHADOWOFEXCELLENCE
Race 5: 8-GENERAL TRUCE, 4-SOUL, 7-DUBLEANNY
Race 6: 11-WOORIM, 12-ROTHERA, 10-DAO DAO
Race 7: 5-RAINBOW STYLING, 12-DREAM PEDLAR, 8-PURPLE
Race 8: 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, 1-SHOCKING, 22-VALDEMORO (emerg), 12-ALCOPOP
Race 9: 13-LIVE IN SIN, 14-ALOHA, 5-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED
Race 10: 9-FABULIST, 4-SUNDAY ROSE, 13-PLAY JUST FOR ME



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
12-WHAT A BEAUTY 2nd W=$6.00
7-ALOTTA SPUR 1st W=$4.80
11-VOLANDO

Quinella : $12.70

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
1-SKILLED 2nd W=$2.50
4-MULTAHEM SCR
3-MR CHARD 1st W=$5.80

Quinella : $7.00
RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
8-OUR PRIDE AND JOY
10-PLACEMENT 2nd W=$9.40
4-DIZLAGO 1st W=$8.70

Quinella : $41.90 **** nice box quinella **

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
5-REKINDLED INTEREST SCR
1-RETRIEVE 1st W=$2.00
9-SHADOWOFEXCELLENCE

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
8-GENERAL TRUCE
4-SOUL 3rd W=$3.30
7-DUBLEANNY 2nd W=$4.60

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
11-WOORIM
12-ROTHERA 1st W=$8.00
10-DAO DAO SCR

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
5-RAINBOW STYLING
12-DREAM PEDLAR
8-PURPLE 2nd W=$3.30

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
13-HERCULIAN PRINCE
1-SHOCKING
22-VALDEMORO

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
13-LIVE IN SIN
14-ALOHA
5-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED

RACE 10: RESULTS
Tips:
9-FABULIST SCR
4-SUNDAY ROSE SCR
13-PLAY JUST FOR ME




RACE 8: CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1
Tips:
13-HERCULIAN PRINCE
1-SHOCKING
22-VALDEMORO (emerg)
12-ALCOPOP

Others: 6, 19,15,18

Pace: EVEN (FAST with emergencies in the field)
Leaders : 11-ZAVITE, 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, 19-MOURAYAN (emerg)
Handy : 2-METAL BENDER, 5-BUCCELLATI, 6-HARRIS TWEED, 10-TRIPLE HONOUR, 14-ZABRASIVE, 15-DESCARADO, 20-RED RULER (emerg)
Back : 1-SHOCKING , 3-MR MEDICI , 4-TOKAI TRICK, 7-MANIGHAR, 8-MASTER O'REILLY, 9-MONACO CONSUL, 12-ALCOPOP, 16-JESSICABEEL, 17-FAINT PERFUME , 18-DARIANA, 21-DRUNKEN SAILOR (emerg), 22-VALDEMORO (emerg)

Chances:
1-SHOCKING is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who seems to have improved again this year. Every run this time in has been full of merit. Made good ground 1st up in the Liston. Favoured by a swoopers track in the Makybe Diva and ran strongly over the top of them. Seemed to get a little lost on the home turn but worked home OK in the Underwood. Last start in the Turnbull was fighting out the finish in a 3 way tussle on the inside, after struggling to get a clear run for a while in the pack – think he is much better given a long clear run down the outside. In form and racing very consistently, and he just seems to be going better than most of these, so has to be considered in this despite being topweight. Going to be suited if they are swooping down the middle of the track on a wet, cut up track. Wet is absolutely no problem for him – two of his best runs, the Turnbull and the QLD Derby have been on heavy tracks. In fact suspect he actually goes better in the wet. Caulfield is a bit of a problem though, he just doesn’t seem to go quite as well here, his runs in the Underwood this year, and Coogny and Herbert Power last year were very similar – he seems to take a little longer to hit top gear in the straight and normally by the time he lets down something has pinched a winning break. But he has pretty much the best form in this field, will be suited by the conditions and has to go in as a strong winning chance. Strong chance. 4th W=$4.60

6-HARRIS TWEED has always shown a fair bit of potential and we have been keeping a close eye on this one. Big plus is that he often box seats, in the Sydney Cup and even last year’s Melbourne Cup he has got perfect runs and loomed like he was going to be a threat, but not quite finished it off. Suspect he doesn’t quit run out 3200M, but he is always going to be competitive around this distance range cause he always puts himself into the race. Cruised to lead last start early in the straight and looked home, but was a little lucky to just hold off a fast finishing one. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in and the run over the trip – and very few of these have had a 2400M+ lead up run going into this, which is a big plus for this one. Last start winner too – one of only two in this field – and they have a incredible record in this race. Has been competitive in all of his Australia staying runs, flopped in this race last year, but note that was his 1st run over here and they have bought him over early this year. Seems to go OK on wet ground – note that two of his heavy track runs were his 1st two starts in maidens, won in Australia on a heavy track. Gets nice weight drop from last start win, though wasn’t against the best opposition. Drawn a nice barrier, will sit just on the speed, and put himself into this race. Looks the stand out best rough chance in this – you just have to respect last start winners in this race. Rough chance. 2nd W=$14.90

12-ALCOPOP was the boom horse of last spring who is just about to run into form. Last year they had to get him up and running early in the spring so he could qualify for this race, and he was probably past his best come Melbourne Cup day. This year they are taking their time and you just get the impression he is about to peak on the right day. Fitter for the 4 runs in, was finishing off really nicely in the JRA Cup, and no surprise at all to see him come out and run a huge race in the Yalumba Stakes. Looks very well weighted in this, and will be interesting if he wins cause then you will have to wonder what PRECEDENCE or LISTON might have done in this field. Suspect he is probably better off on a dry track, he does have a slow track win in last year’s JRA Cup. Imposing win strike rate, bit of untapped potential about him – that’s what you want in this race – one on the up. On a dry track, drawn a barrier would be a clear and confident top pick. Worth noting that a few from outside barriers have gone OK in this race in the last few years, place getters VIGOR from barrier 18 last year, and BARBARICUS from barrier 17 the year before – but they have gone forward. Really think his best chance here is to go forward and try and get a position not far off the speed. He is just a smother and run on horse – the outside barrier is really going to be an issue here. Last week’s run was outstanding though, looks fantastically rated in this so have to respect his chances. Chance.

13-HERCULIAN PRINCE is one of Gai’s, lightly raced, excellent win strike rate, on the up, all big ticks going into this race. Extra big tick for being a last start winner – there are only two last start winners in this field and they have an excellent record in this race. Last start win was very impressive, he led clearly, then (19) has gone hard and early around him, but great ride from the jockey to settle his horse and come back to win decisively. Flopped badly when good thing short priced favourite the start before, but did appear that he swallowed his tongue, stubbed his toe or hit his funny bone or something similar. Fit, last start winner, seems to handle it wet, 2400M winner going into this, perfectly drawn to go to the lead here. A lot will depend on how the track is racing – if the inside is cutting up and the swoopers are winning that will make it difficult. Over the last ten years, the Metropolitan had lost favour as a form staying race for the majors, but the last two winners of that race SPEED GIFTED, NEWPORT both did not contest this race. The previous two winners – RAILINGS, TAWQEET – both won the Caulfield Cup at their next start. Other question is how much pressure up front, he should be OK, but might find trouble if the (19) gets a run cause that will put extra pressure on up front. Also worth noting jockey change, Rawiller had said there was a trick to getting him to settle, and can’t make this weight, so let’s hope Schofield is in on the secret. Clear top pick for us – and that’s saying something cause normally we don’t back Gai’s horses, or Sydney horses in Melbourne. Strong chance.

19-MOURAYAN(emerg) is one of Williams imported runners, most of whom to be honest were looking like absolute duds. Thankfully hurdling is going to keep going for a few years. This one is lightly raced, did nothing at 1st 2 starts this time in, then last 2 runs have been identical, jockey has taken off early and whooshed to the lead, he has kicked clear, died on run in Naturalism, but fought on OK in the Metropolitan. They are either trying to run him into fitness, or trying to turn his races into hard staying slogs to suit his racing pattern. Seems to be on the improve and would actually give a rough chance in this if he makes the field. Wet should suit. If he starts he could bring undone the chances of the (13) but putting a lot more pressure up front. Tricky from inside barrier though – you would think they would want him sitting out side and taking off mid race again? Hard to see him beating the (13) on weights from last start though. Rough chance.

22-VALDEMORO (emerg) is a quality staying 4YO mare and one of our favourite horses, but she has been struggling for form this time in. Ran on pretty well 1st up. Hopeless out the back in funnily run race 2nd up. Really strong effort to come home off a fast pace 3rd up over 2000M. Started very short last start in what looked a gimme race, but never looked likely, and did have perfect sit. Actually prepared to forgive that run, she was on the rails behind the leader, think she needs a big track and being ridden out wide and running on – she settled a lot closer than normal. Should be OK on wet ground and will be suited if they are running on late. Actually think she is a rough chance in this, prefer her form much more than her arch rival the (17), and she will start 4 times the odds if she gets a run. Absolutely no weight at all. Chances of her getting a run as 4th emergency are a million to one, so we might as well declare her as a good thing – not like she is going to get a run a prove us wrong ! Rough chance..

Place:
2-METAL BENDER ticks a lot of boxes going into this race, 4YO, been competitive in the right lead up races. Does seem to go better on wet tracks so is going to get conditions to suit. Fought away well in the Underwood and was notably hitting the line strongly just behind the first three home in the Turnbull in an eye catching run. Meets the (1) 1kgs better off for the Turnbull run. Was ridden back from outside barrier last start, but normally races on speed and from a perfect barrier today should be sitting just behind the speed in this. Winner of this race often cuts the corner too – and he is looking a prime candidate for that run. Probably gets the run of the race here. His chances will depend if they are still wining along the inside coming to this race – if they are swooping out wide he is going to get stuck in the worse going in a big field. Only query is maybe weighted up to his best against this lot? 4YOs have a very good record in this race, but the 4YO winners over the last 10 years have been RAILINGS 52kgs, ELVSTROEM 54kgs, MUMMIFY 53kgs, DIATRIBE 52.5kgs. Just looks a challenge on the weights to us? Won’t be far off at all, but preferring place. Place chance.

10-TRIPLE HONOUR is an OK Sydney stayer who has had a very long preparation – really has not had much of a break since Feb. Had a freshen up mid winter and 4 runs this time in have all been OK. Hasn’t been far from the (2) a few times and meets him better on weights here. Handles it wet just fine. Hard and fit, and this could be a toughly run, wet, rain, hail and sleet slog to the line. Has won over 2200M so should see this trip out. Just not overly sure of the strength of his lead up races – well not sure of the strength of anything when you get beaten by grand cat C’EST LA GUERRE. But he is fit, will race on pace and probably worth a place chance in this. Place.

15-DESCARADO is one of Gai’s who is going along OK. 4YO, no weight, competitive in 3YO staying classics ticks a lot of boxes into this race. Solid lead and win effort in Sydney two starts back, again just not quite sure about the strength of that form now. Thought he had a chance last start in the Turnbull, but got caught wide on a ferocious speed battle and no surprise to see him drop out like he did. Can probably forgive that run. Probably goes better on a wet track and looks to get conditions to suit here. From wide barrier will probably go forward – and can actually see this one sticking on pretty well on the speed as other have done in previous years. No weight, form is OK, 4YO – probably a rough chance, prefer a solid place chance though. Definitely put him in your trifectas and first fours. 1st W=$17.40

17-FAINT PERFUME was one of the stars of last spring who hasn’t stepped up in her 4YO season. Tough, nuggetty muscular type who runs on strongly from behind. Drawn a good barrier and barriers are important in this race. Fitter for the 3 runs in. First two runs in were dead set shockers, made no ground in the Liston or Stock Stakes. Loomed through the middle of the field in the Turnbull, but the pack descended and ran away from her. She does get a nice 4kgs weight drop from that, but doubt that is enough to make up the margin. Blinkers first time today is important, might spark her up. Not sure at all about her form, think she is struggling to be honest, but has the ability on her day, might be about to improve and can’t under estimate the Bart. Should be OK on the wet. There is a lot of money coming for her, but just can’t get enthused about this one. Suspect she is going to start really poor value though, cause of the Bart factor, and her previous form – on her form this time in she should really be $20 or better. Place at very best.

18-DARIANA is another of Barts who has no weight, lightly raced and classic proven at the trip. Fitter for the 3 runs in and excellent run in the Underwood when finished on strongly. Bombed out in the Turnbull though, but always allow them one bad run. Drawn a good barrier, can settle out the back and just run her own race. Wet track could be an issue? Would prefer to be on her than the (17), so rough chance at best, but preferring place.


Sacking:
3-MR MEDICI is a Hong Kong visitor who is drawn a little wide. Know absolutely nothing about these. Much rather bet on Colac than Hong Kong. Don’t bet on unknowns. No

4-TOKAI TRICK is a Japanese overseas visitor which makes him extremely hard to line up. Most of the internationals start long, long odds on the tote these days, the punters have finally worked out the vast majority of them are no good. When they do win it’s normally at long odds. But he is a Japanese horse, not a European, and they have actually gone pretty well in this race when they have had a chance to contest it. They have stayed away for a few years because of quarantine issues. Drawn very wide. The way these normally run is to get out and rolling a long way from home. This looks like a warm up race for the Melbourne Cup, so suspect might finish somewhere 4th to 6th. Passing

5-BUCCELLATI is an import trying to make a new start down under, in Australia – The Lucky Country. Really hasn’t done much in 3 runs this time in – and started $301, $151, $101 so the bookies are obviously so very, very scared of this one. Raced more forward in the Turnbull, and suspect they might go forward again from an outside barrier and just chance their luck in this race. Actually loomed up under a hold on the turn in the Turnbull and hit the lead just after they straightened – died on run ½ way down the straight, but was the run of a horse on the improve ? Extra distance will suit, fitter, will go forward and get rolling so might improve a little today. Suspect will run a much improved race today so maybe worth throwing in for those super wide trifectas and first fours. Would have to improve out of sight though to be a serious factor in this. Wonderful system we have where things like this get a start and in form local stayers do not. No

7-MANIGHAR is another import, the Cumani runner who has been getting a pretty decent push in the press. Local jockey on board, drawn a good barrier, wet should assist. Cumani stable is one of the few international stables who seem to have worked out what you need to do to win races over here so their runners have to be respected. Again – we don’t like betting on internationals, don’t know anything about them, not going to put our money on unknowns – else would be down at the pokies as we speak. Come on 7 lucky Sphinxes. You are really betting on what the media are pushing – what does it actually mean in terms of form? Thing is, when the internationals win, they are normally unheralded and at long odds, so you are better off just backing for longest priced 2-3 if any. Suspect this one is going to get very well backed – so looks poor value. Risking.

8-MASTER O'REILLY has now reached start number 26 since his last win – in the Caulfield Cup of 2007. He normally runs on well in flashy video black booker style in some WFA lead ups, but actually hasn’t done anything this time in. Fitter for the 3 runs in, but no form, and he is one who is very suspect on wet ground so maybe they might scratch him and let one of the emergencies have a start ? Please? Pretty please? Not on form, not on a wet track. No.

9-MONACO CONSUL has a lot of potential but is mixing his form a lot. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and looked set for a big spring when he stuck on well on the inside 1st up in the worse going in the Liston. Then was beaten early in the straight, took a bite out of another runner, but still got going again 2nd up in the Makybe Diva. Again raced ungenerously in the Turnbull when was well beaten. Stack of gear changes today to try and sort him out, but good chance the change he actually needs is permanent and makes your voice go a few octaves higher. Handles it wet. Probably drops well back from outside barrier, he is a bit of a wild card cause he could suddenly put it together, but you can’t have him on form at the moment. No 3rd W=$20.00

11-ZAVITE is a tough on pacer stayer who has been going along pretty well this time in. Best of the runners on in the Liston (and not suited on wet ground), ran on well again in the Makybe Diva (again not suited wet ground), led and fought on OK in the Underwood and flopped badly last start. Did get caught up on a ferocious speed last start though, and can probably forgive as previous runs were pretty good. Drawn outside barrier and likely to go forward again. Always improves with lots of hard racing, just much better on firm ground. Well beaten when led on dry track in this race last year – and hard to see him doing any better on a wet track. No

14-ZABRASIVE is a lightly raced stayer who has shown potential, but hasn’t really done much this time in. More famous for his TAB competition than his feats on the track. Fitter for the 3 runs in, stepping up to a more suitable distance, should be just about ready to do something. Hard to see him beating home those who have thrashed him in the lead up runs though. Looks a query on wet ground? No

16-JESSICABEEL is a lightly raced solid staying type who hasn’t shown much this time in, but will improve as the distances increase. Did run on OK in the Turnbull which is a positive sign. Will drop well back here from outside barrier and will come wide and late. Largely unknown on wet ground. Will probably improve here, and maybe worth a very, very rough place ticket at best, but that’s about it. No

20-RED RULER (emerg) has had a million chances in these spring races and simply isn’t up to the grade. Races on speed. Definitely query on wet ground. Had a dream sit in plenty of staying and WFA races, and just doesn’t finish it off. Is fitter for the 4 runs in. Big No No

21-DRUNKEN SAILOR (emerg) is one of the Cumani stable and they do seem to know what they are doing. Drawn a nice barrier. Import – so know nothing – and happy to stay that way. If he does get into the field probably throw him into trifectas instead of the stable mate cause this one will probably start much better value. No

Summary: Not the worse Caulfield Cup field we have had, and there have been a few shockers in recent years. Just be wary that a lot of these really don’t have much in the way of form. Obviously a lot is going to come down to the weather, how much rain we get and whether the race even gets ran at all with the torrent that is coming down.

Caulfield Cup form notes :
- winning form is good form. Look back over the last 10 years – 6 winners of this race have won their lead up race, and each year there were only a few last start winners going around. 3 others have placed in their lead up run. You need to be in form. There are only three last start winners in this field – 6-HARRIS TWEED, 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, 21-DRUNKEN SAILOR (emerg). You really need to be in peak form to win a tough, competitive feature Group 1 race like this.
- often the winner will come through the Turnbull or Yalumba Stakes, so look for those who put in good runs there and are dropping in weight into this. Obviously 12-ALCOPOP ran a huge race in the Yalumba, from the Turnbull 1-SHOCKING beaten 0.2L drops 2kgs, 2-METAL BENDER beaten 1.3L drops 3kgs, 17-FAINT PERFUME beaten 5L drops 4kgs. Still think 1-SHOCKING will beat home all of the runners from the Turnbull.
- the last two winners of the Metropolitan to contest this race, RAILINGS in 2005, and TAWQEET in 2006, both won the Caulfield Cup.
- often the winner of this race cuts the corner ! They all go for home around the home turn, wide and wider, and something sneaks through on the rails and scoots through. VIEWED 2009, MASTER O’REILLY 2007, TAWQEET 2006, DIATRIBE 2000 all did this. They will probably be scouting wide on a wet track this year, so even more chance for something to cut the corner.

Pace here should be even to genuine, 11-ZAVITE, 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE both probably go forward, pressure might come if 19-MOURAYAN (emerg) gets a run. Sitting handy behind them is
2-METAL BENDER (stuck on inside = worse going?), 10-TRIPLE HONOUR, 15-DESCARADO.
Just a matter of whether the leaders can get out to the middle of the track to the best ground.

There is a clear stand out top pick in this race - 13-HERCULIAN PRINCE, which surprised the hell out of us cause we generally don’t back Gai’s horses, and we don’t back Sydney horses in Melbourne. But winning form is important, wet track form, 2400M winner, think he is going to be very hard to beat. Only danger appears to be the 1-SHOCKING who might run him down if the track is favouring swoopers. Think you can just about narrow it down to just these two winning chances. We actually wouldn’t mind having something on 22-VALDEMORO (emerg) at nice odds with no weight if she gets a run, but chances of that are very slim. 12-ALCOPOP the other obvious pick, but didn’t want to pick the 3 favourites – drawn a barrier on a dry track he would have been a great bet.

Think there is some money to be made in the trifecta here, pretty confident there are only two winning chances. So go wide for the placings in a multiple trifecta, only problem is one of the bloody internationals will probably do something, so just pick 1-2 of them randomly (ask the dog to do it) and add them in on top of these numbers.

Race 8 : FLEXI TRIFECTA 1,13 # 1, 2, 6,10, 13,15,18,19 (emerg), 22 (emerg) = $56 for 50 cents.


One to risk: 2-METAL BENDER – might place, doubt it can win - 8th W=$10.00
Roughie: 6-HARRIS TWEED 2nd W=$14.90, 22-VALDEMORO (emerg)

RESULTS : Looks so obvious in hindsight, always want to watch out for 4YOs, on the rise, with classic staying 3YO form, and the on pacers crossing from outside barriers have gone well in this race in previous years. Suspect the wet track made the difference though, not sure he would have won on a dry track. Solid run from 6-HARRIS TWEED who loomed and given his run should have probably ran past the winner - he has box seated in quite a few features now, loomed and not quite gone on with it. Suspect today was his best chance of winning a big one. 9-MONACO CONSUL back in form and could go on with it now - trick with him is drawing an outside barrier. Obviously 1-SHOCKING extremely unlucky, just seems to take a while to get around the turn at Caulfield and wind up. Thought 7-MANIGHAR went OK and will improve a lot out of this one and is probably the one to follow going into the Melbourne Cup. Would probably give 12-ALCOPOP another chance as well, loomed wide and early but didn't finish it off - maybe didn't handle the ground ? Struggle to believe that after having a week to work out how to deal with the outside barrier the best plan they could come up with was "go early, go 6 wide with 600M to go??". 17-FAINT PERFUME flops, which was no surprise, still trying to work out why everyone was so keen to jump on something with no form?


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