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For one week only, deposit $50 and get a $150 Free Bet.
The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer
is valid for one week only and closes when they jump in the Caulfield Cup. |
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| CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 15th Oct 2011 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SHOWER OR TWO - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Pretty nice weather heading into the weekend with just a few showers forecast for Saturday. This is going to place the Caulfield track manager in a bit of a quandary about how much to water the track – only a few showers forecast so you would think this track is going to stay quite firm, especially considering it is already a GOOD(3). Track has dried out and firmed up quite quickly last couple of meetings so just be wary we could be looking at quite a firm track again. Caulfield Guineas Day last week seemed to just favour those racing on the speed. Thousand Guineas Day Wednesday they could run on just fine out 3-4 wide and strong finishers won most of the races. Normally Caulfield Cup Day with the rail out 6M you should get genuine even racing, with a track that is wearing so they can run on out wider – especially on a 10 race program. Just be aware though that when Caulfield gets firm it does get very leaderish so depends on how long the sunshine lasts on Saturday and if the showers come. We had a lot of short priced favourites on Weds, and wasn’t overly convinced they were all going to win. Today we have quite a few solid $3 favourites and to be honest suspect most of them will win – so maybe structure an all up bet coming through 2-3 solid $3 chances into something you like for a nice collect. Can’t ever remember having an even money Caulfield Guineas winner into a less than even money Thousand Guineas winner going into a pretty short favourite for a Caulfield Cup – all very unusual – and no fun at all if you like to back value winners cause they are normally the races that provide them. RESULTS : Drying weather again and track gets to a GOOD(3). Extremely windy, and between that and a full weeks of racing it was very difficult to lead and win, and most of the races were won by horses finishing on late. Tips were just OK, but the Betting Portfolio had a wipe out. Detailed form commentary was spot on in the main race. BEST BET : Race 1: 3-MISS ZOOM $10 WIN X Going to have to get organised early with the best bet in the first race of a ten race card. This one’s last run at MV was absolutely outstanding, it was a dead set leader’s track, it was caught wide all of the way, and wider still on the turn – and yet still finished on for third. That was a much harder race than this. Can sit handy in a small field. The winner of the first race last week ADAMANTIUM came off a very similar run from the MV night meeting. Think the $4 on offer is a great way to start the day, and maybe even use it as a nice kick off to some All Up win bets with the favourites later in the day. Keen to bet. RESULTS : Gets perfect on speed sit, but does nothing. Not beaten that far, but never a factor. Was quite keen on this one - very disappointing. BEST WIN : Race 9: 1-MORE JOYOUS 1st W=$1.80 QUINELLA : Race 9: 1-MORE JOYOUS, 2-RESPONSE x $5 1st 1-MORE JOYOUS W=$1.80, 3rd 2-RESPONSE W=$15.20 QUINELLA : Race 9: 1-MORE JOYOUS, 8-BORN TO ROCK x $3 QUINELLA : Race 9: 1-MORE JOYOUS, 12-I’M DISCREET x $2 Outstanding Sydney mare who just got a little lost back in the field on the wet track at MV last start, but worked home well. Extremely well suited under this weight scale, barely having to give weight to anything, and remember she won the Toorak here last year carrying 58gs. 2nd up in the Autumn she won the Futurity here as well. Does look the winner. Her main rival is the 3-SISTER MADLY, who will probably get pretty well backed, but has yet to win past 1200M and probably only just runs out the 1400M. Hence there should be some good value in the quinella with the favourite through the (2), (8), and (12). RESULTS : Best win bet of the day gets home, but don't see the point of backing horses at those sort of odds. Unfortunately, her main rival 3-SISTER MADLY hangs on for 2nd which means we miss out - but the quinella only paid $2.40 which is why we didn't think it was worth taking and was worth looking for some value. BEST EACH WAY : Race 7: 8-PLATINUM PASSION $6 WIN 4th W=$7.60 QUINELLA BOX : Race 7: 8-PLATINUM PASSION, 7-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT, 3-RED COLOSSUS x $3 = 9 The old Coogny handicap is always a great betting race and there really only seems to be a few winning chances, but they are all each way odds – the (3),(7),(8),(10). Just worried a bit about the firm track with the (10), but keen on the (8) here. She has always shown a fair bit of potential, but never quite put it all together. The blinkers came off last start, she drew an outside barrier and went forward and just kept rolling on a firm track. The form from that race has held up with the 2nd horse winning here last week. Suspect she may have turned the corner and good chance she is going to do exactly the same thing here today, jump and run, with very little to take her on in the lead here. Save with a box quinella around the main chances as well. RESULTS : We were a little stiff here. 8-PLATINUM PASSION did as we expected, crossed easily, jumped and ran - just near impossible to win on the speed today with that headwind. Gave a great kick in the straight, was still leading at the 100M, but just swamped on the line. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 4-DANZYLUM $2.50 EW X When you think Caulfield, 1400M, dry tracks this is the one that springs to mind. A whopping 38 starts over the 1400M for 8 wins. 3 time winner over the Caulfield 1400M, and 4 times runner up. It is just a matter of waiting for the right race for this guy – he needs a really firm track, 1400M and not to be taken on in the lead. Even though there is another leader in this, the (11) suspect they might sit just off them today. Huge run down the straight in the Bobbie Lewis – he paid $38 the place that day, then not suited leading on a swoopers track at MV the start after. Worked from outside barrier here in the Rupert Clarke when not beaten that far, but never sighted down the straight again last start. Just wary that a lot of this field are 2nd up and up in distance and think at 50-1 he is worth a small each way bet rolling on the speed here. Extremely rough. RESULTS : Doesn't lead and never gives a yelp. BEST ROUGH : Race 2: 10-I FEEL GOOD $2.50 EW X The 3YO races are always a bit lopsided in the betting market. If you have city form you start really short, if you have country form you are 50-1, even though many of these young 3YOs quickly progress after a few runs. This one has only had the 3 starts and is going along OK and should have some upside. Placed in town at his only start over this distance and hey, 50-1, might as well have something each way as a possible improver. RESULTS : Never a factor, but keep following in something weaker. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 8-NIAGARA at around $4.50 3rd W=$3.00 One of Gai’s who does seem to be on the up, and all the newspaper tipsters seem to be falling over each other to tip this. Why though ? Yes it did win by 6L last start, but that was a 65 rating race, on a slow track, in a field of 4. What does that tell us ? Into a capacity 16 horse field, onto a dry track in Melbourne, over 2000M for the first time, suspect will be very well supported and come up extremely short on the tote and quite happy to look elsewhere. RESULTS : We were lucky here - was badly held up for runs and amazing that he even got this close. Definitely want to back this one next start. Still seemed silly odds in such a large, even field. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. DAILY DOUBLE : Races 8,10 : 9,14,16,17,18 / 8,9 x 50 cents = $5 1st 18-SOUTHERN SPEED W=$10.20, 2nd 16-GREEN MOON W=$10.60 / X There will be a stack of value in the daily double if the favourite gets beaten in the Caulfield Cup, so take the main winning chances (9), (16),(18) and the best roughies the (14),(17). In the 2nd leg pretty much anything can win, but the run of the (8) here last start from last was outstanding, and the (9) in that race was SCR from Caulfield Weds for this, and has a bit of ability when right. Throw $5 out there and hope for a collect in the daily double. RESULTS : The favourite does flop badly in the Caulfield Cup, and we nicely sort out what the winning chances are, but never get warm in the 2nd leg. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $0 NET : $-50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-MISS ZOOM, 6-BELLE OF THE COURT, 7-SECRET LIASON Race 2: 1-MASTHEAD, 10-I FEEL GOOD, 5-HIGHLY RECOMMENDED Race 3: 5-QUENCH THE THRIST, 1-DOWAGER QUEEN, 3-ROMA GIACONDA Race 4: 3-SANGSTER, 5-SABRAGE, 12-SLEEP’N’PETE Race 5: 6-SEPOY, 9-CURTANA, 8-MID SUMMER MUSIC Race 6: 4-DANZYLUM, 14-VARENNA MISS, 13-SPEEDINESS Race 7: 8-PLATINUM PASSION, 7-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT, 3-RED COLOSSUS Race 8: 9-DECEMBER DRAW, 14-NIWOT, 18-SOUTHERN SPEED Race 9: 1-MORE JOYOUS, 2-RESPONSE, 8-BORN TO ROCK Race 10: 8-TOTAL LIBERTY, 9-JESSE’S GIRL, 6-MISS ELVEE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MISS ZOOM 6-BELLE OF THE COURT 1st W=$3.40 7-SECRET LIASON 2nd W=$4.80 Quinella : $7.50 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MASTHEAD 2nd W=$3.30 10-I FEEL GOOD 5-HIGHLY RECOMMENDED 3rd W=$14.00 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-QUENCH THE THRIST 1-DOWAGER QUEEN 2nd W=$2.60 3-ROMA GIACONDA |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SANGSTER 2nd W=$5.80 5-SABRAGE 1st W=$8.80 12-SLEEP’N’PETE Quinella : $25.50 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-SEPOY 1st W=$1.20 9-CURTANA 2nd W=$18.30 8-MID SUMMER MUSIC 3rd W=$9.60 Quinella : $4.90 Trifecta : $14.70 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-DANZYLUM 14-VARENNA MISS 13-SPEEDINESS SCR |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-PLATINUM PASSION 7-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT 3-RED COLOSSUS |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-DECEMBER DRAW 14-NIWOT 18-SOUTHERN SPEED 1st W=$10.20 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MORE JOYOUS 1st W=$1.80 2-RESPONSE 3rd W=$15.20 8-BORN TO ROCK |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-TOTAL LIBERTY 9-JESSE’S GIRL 6-MISS ELVEE |
| RACE 8: CAULFIELD CUP GROUP 1 2400M |
| Tips: 9-DECEMBER DRAW 14-NIWOT 18-SOUTHERN SPEED 1st W=$10.20 |
| Others: 16, 17,8 Pace: SOLID Leaders : Handy : 1-MIGHTY HIGH, 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT , 8-SHOOTOFF , 9-DECEMBER DRAW, 11-TULLAMORE, 13-DREAM PEDLAR, 14-NIWOT, 16-GREEN MOON, 18-SOUTHERN SPEED, 20-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT (emerg) Back : 2-DRUNKEN SAILOR, 3-MANIGHAR, 5-LUCAS CRANACH, 6-PRECEDENCE, 7-HAWK ISLAND , 10-SAPTAPADI, 12-ABSOLUTELY , 15-DOMESKY, 17-MACEDONIAN, 19-SPECHENKA (emerg), 21-ANUDJAWUN (emerg), 22-MIDNIGHT MARTINI (emerg) Chances: 8-SHOOTOFF is another Sydney sider who is going along OK and struck some form last start after not showing much at 1st 2 starts this time in. Won the QLD Derby last winter and it is always worth watching out for 4YOs with classic 3YO staying form in this – and normally there are quite a few of them, but not this year. Another who is drawn wide but can push forward if required. Bit hard to tell how strong the form out of last race is going to be, but he is probably some sort of rough chance in this, more simply because as a classic winning 3YO in his 4YO season. Normally these sort are right in the market, do think he is way over the odds. Rough chance. 9-DECEMBER DRAW is the short priced favourite and fair enough too - he has all the right form going into this race. Only beaten once since starting down under and has been a bit of a revelation. The best thing about him is that he just tries so hard – A+ for effort for this one. Even 1st up when he got beaten at MV it was obvious he was busting his gut to try and reign in the leader. Always looked the likely winner 2nd and 3rd up. Then last start the leader got a serious break on him and you just had to love how determined he was to run him down and stick his head out. Seriously genuine horse. Can race midfield, drawn into a bit of space and you would think should present at the top of the straight and have every chance here. Maybe the only thing that bothers us slightly about him is that he has had everything go his way in his races this spring, but doesn't often win by big margins. For the Caulfield Cup you want winning form, something that won't drop too far back, drawn out a little, and best run from the Turnbull so he has gold stars and tick boxes all over the place. Doesn't meet much in the way of opposition here either. He is short though, and guess that is the only issue, backing one at such short odds in the Caulfield Cup. Definitely the one to beat and can't see any reason why he can't win. One to beat. 14-NIWOT is the forgotten horse of this field and one we want to give a very strong push too. Even though he is a 7YO, he is lightly raced, has a good win strike rate and still has some upside. Should be right at peak now with the 3 runs in and expect a lot of improvement coming off the 2500M run. Looks nicely weighted with 53.5kgs. Finally ran into form last start when sticking on well and think he is going to be ready to produce here. Best form does seem to be on tracks with some give in them, but hopefully with a few showers around today the track won't be too hard. He can race handy and although drawn wide if the stable has the smarts about them they will send him forward here - quite a few horses have stuck on really well last couple of years on pace in this race (think DESCARADO, VIGOR, BARBARICUS). Think part of the reason for that is you get out rolling on the speed in space and miss all the trouble that so often happens back in the field. We are really keen on this one at odds. Almost certain you could get 150-1 earlier in the week, have a shop around IASBET and Betfair and you might still be able to find 100-1 somewhere. Great value rough chance and definitely have something each way on this. Guess the class is going to be the test, but think he is a strong chance in a field of little depth. 16-GREEN MOON is the only one of Lloyd Williams Melbourne Cup Assault Task Force Team going around here so that must be a positive sign. Overseas purchase who has stepped up down under. Showed surprising pace to be up on the speed 1st up down the Flem straight. Unsighted at MV on dynamite leaders track, then came out and got going late at Flem to show he was about to run into some form. Tough win when wide all the way in the Newcastle Cup, and wonder if they plan to ride him like that again today from an outside barrier ? Can't go wrong with these international types free flowing out wide in plenty of space. Has had a full month off since the last win – maybe a little concern going into a tough feature race. Having winning form going into this race is a very big plus so has to be respected, especially in such a weak field. Genuine chance. 2nd W=$10.60 17-MACEDONIAN is an average stayer who is a bit hard to catch and can mix his form. Fitter for the 4 runs in and should be ready to show something today and he was noticeably making ground last 2 starts so he does look ready to do something. Drawn a nice middle barrier, but probably drops back here. He is pretty consistent and has been thereabouts in most of the Cup-related things over the last year and his Geelong Cup run last year when 5th in an extremely strong form race was actually really good. You would think Moody is going to win a Caulfield Cup sooner rather than later and think this guy is a solid rough chance in this. Nice barrier, will stay , eye catching finish last couple of runs Solid rough chance here. 18-SOUTHERN SPEED is the other 4YO mare and she has been going along OK as well. Actually had a solid 5 runs in, been taking her time in a nice, long slow preparation. Eye catching run when running on late in the Stutt Stakes, then probably a bit unlucky in the Underwood when got flushed out early and had to go for home a little early around the home turn which left her a sitting duck to be run down. Whacked away just fine in the Turnbull, but hard to see her turning around the margin on the (9) on weights. She has drawn a good barrier, she likes a firm track which she is going to get and think they can ride her a lot closer to the speed today so she is going to get a pretty cosy run. She has a real turn of foot too when let loose, so don’t be surprised to see her dash through on the inside around the turn and look the winner early on. Definitely have to consider her here. Chance. 1st W=$10.20 Place: 1-MIGHTY HIGH is a Hong Kong visitor who is lightly raced for a 6YO and has a good win strike rate. Have to like that they have been nice enough to give him 2 runs over here, so we get a chance to see him and line him up. Should be right at peak for this with those 2 runs in and they have both been OK. 1st up at Caulfield he carried a very big weight, dropped into a nice on pace trial and worked home OK – even though AVIENUS ran OK last start that was a super ordinary field of non winners. Again last start very similar, last little bit OK, but hardly flashing to the line. Comes in as top weight in this, although it is a very weak field, and should race handy from barrier 1 which means he will miss a lot of the trouble. Going along OK, has Caulfield Stakes form which is normally a good guide to this and will get a cosy run on the speed – just not overly convinced about how well he is going. Solid place chance. 3-MANIGHAR is yet another international who ran a solid race here in this race last year to finish 5th on a bog track. Actually made solid ground in the Melbourne Cup so that effort was OK and plugged away in the Sandown Classic again on a heavy track. Guess he has proven himself previously down under so that is a big plus. Form isn't that flash coming in this year, but it wasn't that flash last year either. Did strike 3 wet tracks last spring, so just wonder if he is a bit one paced and that was to his advantage ? Drawn a nice middle barrier here, drew similar last year in this race. Be interesting to see if he can race more forward this year. Suspect he would want them to go for home early and make it a solid staying test but there doesn't seem to be that much speed in this. Find it very hard to get enthused about this internationals. Prefer place.4th W=$11.70 6-PRECEDENCE is one of Bart's and he just seems to be able to get them up and running at the right time of the year. Fitter for the 3 runs in, 1st up run was really good in the Memsie and looked like he might be in for a good spring, but hasn't really shown much last 2 starts. Probably just enough to keep us interested - but not enough to really push his chances. Likes a nice hard firm track which he should get and he is pretty good when he strikes form. Drawn barrier 20 here, 56kgs looks a decent whack of weight, he can race handy but suspect he is likely to drop well back today and will have to work his way through the Caulfield Cup field which is pretty much impossible. 56kgs, barrier 20, indifferent form, just cannot recommend. But.. he actually has the class to win this – which many of these do not and he is going to get a firm track which suits. Bart knows how to get them to turn around form and he has been OK in the lead up runs. Rough chance. 7-HAWK ISLAND is a Sydney sider who at least has some form going into this – and very few in form horses in this field. Has run home strongly last 2 runs, should be right at peak now with the 4 runs in and always reckon they improve heaps with the 2400M run under their belt. Keeps up a very healthy win/place strike rate. Drawn out a little here and probably drops back. Main issue with this one is that his best form definitely does seem to be on rain affected tracks and good chance that this track could come up quite firm. Solid place chance though as one of the few in this field with any form. 10-SAPTAPADI is another international who has had a warm up run here last week in the Hebert Power. Drew wide that day and wasn't beaten that far after being caught wide all the way and looming up for a run on the home turn, so guess it was a fair enough performance. They were going past him on the line though which is never a good sign. Gets a nice weight drop into this off 57kgs last week. Likely to drop well back here from a middle barrier, and really you are talking about at $20 chance who was 8th beaten 4L in a Herbert Power and is going to go around similar odds today in a harder Caulfield Cup. If it was an Australian horse you would be wanting $50 at least. He probably ticks the box though of being the no name overseas horse, probably a bit of improvement to come off last week which wasn’t hopeless. Hard to recommend and looks poor value so rough place chance only. Rough place. Sacking: 2-DRUNKEN SAILOR is a Cumani import and they have been in dress rehearsals all week to try and improve the gate speed on their runners to get them up and rolling on the speed. Also they are planning a bit of a tap dance number to entertain the crowd before the start. The internationals who have run well in this race have generally raced wide, taken off a long way from home and ground away. Drawn barrier 18 probably suits they can go forward here if they want and just run their own race in plenty of space. This one was out here last year though - well supported in the Geelong Cup when did nothing but had a slight injury and then not beaten all that far on Stakes Day, but it was a blanket finish in that race so can't get too carried away. After not measuring up last year really have to let him run this year and see how he goes before getting on. Passing. 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT is a old time Yank who seems to have left his run down under a little late. Surprised with solid 1st up effort in the Dato Tan when finished on very strongly, but that was a funnily ran stop start race. 2nd up never looked likely out the back of the field in the Cranbourne Cup and you would have to wonder if something was amiss. Drawn a nice barrier, can actually position handy if required. Think it is hard to win this race off just two lead in runs, up 400M into a tough competitive feature. Guess you can forgive them one bad run so if you just take the MV run then maybe he is over the odds, but prefer to let run. No 5-LUCAS CRANACH has been strongly spruiked over the last couple of months, but now it is time to see if he is actually any good. Generally we don't want to be on the internationals until we have seen them run - and interesting that most now schedule in a Caulfield Cup or Geelong Cup lead up run into the big one. This is a brand new category of international. We have seen plenty of the traditional international raiders who are very hit and miss - and usually miss more often than not. Then there is the overseas import who goes along OK given a season here to get into the swing of things, but now we have the Australian trainer going overseas to prepare the international and bring him here. Just sounds damm expensive to us. Had a mild setback with his foot during the week, which sounds minor, but funny how the smallest things throws these horses off and after being well backed initially to be 2nd favourite in this he has drifted notably in the last couple of days. Our rule with the internationals are we want to see them run before getting on, but generally the more media coverage about how good they are - the worse they run, so if you are going to back one you go for an un-liked no-namer at odds (think TAUFAN'S MELODY, ALL THE GOOD). Else you are really just betting into a popularity contest and might as well go bet on the Logies. Love a Logies Quinella. Reported to have a strong finish and turn of foot to be competitive over here, but the Caulfield Cup is always such a tough, hustle bustle race and the internationals that run best in this race are normally drawn out and rolling on the speed out wide. This one is drawn inside - barrier 2 (with the emergencies out) and that looks like a real issue to us as apparently he is a drop back horse. Will need an awful lot of luck. Just no point betting on unknowns, let alone unknowns who are poor value. Risking 11-TULLAMORE is one of Gai's who has drawn out - and she did win this race last year from an outsider barrier. Fitter for the 3 runs in and the 2400M run so should be plenty of improvement going into today, but form this time in hasn't really got much to recommend it. Absolutely no weight in the Metropolitan yet still never a factor. Solid QLD winter form rolling on the speed and you would have to say there is a good chance seeing they won this race last year from a wider barrier going forward they will do the same again today. Maybe just keep an eye to see if this one gets any backing - really on form doesn't look a chance, hasn't got warm at all this spring, so guess it depends if you want to waste your money on unlikely form reversals. No 3rd W=$17.20 12-ABSOLUTELY is a 4YO mare who is going along OK. In the mid 1990s the lightly weighted 4YO mares were all the rage, but they haven’t been a factor in this race for close to a decade now. Pretty consistent type who is never far away in the finish, drops back, hard finisher, needs them to be running on (which they should be) and definitely seems to prefer some give in the ground (which is unlikely). Fitter for the 3 runs in, actually all 3 have been OK, ran home OK in the Stutt Stakes and stuck on OK in the Turnbull which is solid form for this. Main concern is barrier 22, drop back horse – will drop well back here, be giving a lot of these a big heard start and think the dry, firm track brings this one undone. Maybe a rough chance if there happens to be some rain, but happy to pass over her. No 13-DREAM PEDLAR is just an average stayer so it says a lot for the quality of this field that he has made the cut so easily. Amazing win last start - not just because we actually tipped a winner - but because he was the first to be hard ridden and looked gone 400M out but still kept going. Apparently that is just how he races, he needs to be hard ridden and he just keeps on giving. That wasn't the strongest race although COSMONAUT came out and won Weds at Caulf (another Lay of the Day gets up !!). At peak now with the 4 runs in and run in the Naturalism was OK, meets the favourite the (9) 1kgs better off from that run but doesn't look enough to turn around the margin from that race. Drawn outside and he probably goes forward here as well and get caught wide, but that can be OK in this race. Just slight query about how strongly he runs over the 2400M trip, 5 starts at Caulfield for all duck eggs is a bit of a worry and prefer to let him run today. No 15-DOMESKY is lightly raced and has shown a bit of ability - just a little bit though - not an over whelming avalanche of ability. Another who has had the 4 runs in and should be at peak. 1st up run at Sandown was excellent when finishing on very strongly, then outclassed in stop start Dato Tan, and probably not suited in small field on slow track in the JRA Cup. Never a factor in the Cranbourne Cup though is a real worry and realistically probably wouldn't make this field most years on that form. Only 2 wins have been a maiden and a MV night race where the favourites were SCR at the barrier. Probably drops well back, form just isn't good enough and wouldn't make this field most years. No 19-SPECHENKA (emerg) is the first emergency in this so maybe a rough chance of a start. Fitter for the 4 runs in, but really has not been doing much, well beaten by the (16) in the Newcastle Cup so hard to see him turning the tables today, and well behind the runners coming out of the Metropolitan. Best form is on dry hard tracks which he should get today and 3 times winner over the 2400M is a plus. Likely to drop well back though in a normal hustle bustle Caulfield Cup and hard to recommend on form this time in. No 20-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT (emerg) is a very consistent on pace who we have a lot of time for. Has been going along well this time in. 1st up should have won here when in a blanket finish across the track couldn't get through. 2nd up had to make a very hard and wide run and ran out of puff towards the end. 3rd up wasn't too bad when in the finish behind the (9) - but hard to see him turning around the margin from that race. Lobbed on pace again here last week in the Herbert Power when plugged on OK - but the main query with this one is whether he is going to run out a strong 2400M - and think that is a real doubt. Drawn a perfect barrier and will get a dream on pace run in this if he manages to get a start as 2nd emergency, but suspect will look ready to pounce at the top of the straight and get run down by strong finishers. Not today - but follow in something weaker. 21-ANUDJAWUN (emerg) is a dead set money sucker and funny that he can even make the Top Ten Emergencies for this race - just goes to show what a poor quality field it is this year. Always shown a lot of potential, but it is 1 win now from 17 starts and he is well and truly in the Shame File. Makes a habit of flashy runs on late, but rarely actually gets into the finish. Flashed home for 4th 3 starts ago at MV. Worked home just OK for 4th here at Caulfield 2 starts back when claimed the track was too hard, and that the nasty, mean other horses were running too fast for him and not letting him catch up. And again 5th , not beaten that far last week in the Hebert Power. No weight, drop back horse, will need luck getting through the field, and far too many convictions to his name. No 22-MIDNIGHT MARTINI (emerg) is one of Kav's who is showing some up side and is worth following going on this spring. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, form this time in has been good. 1st up worked home well, not beaten far at all. 2nd up had no luck when ran out of room on the inside and they were winning swooping out wide that day anyway. Just held on here to win 2 starts back, but the very firm track that day did not suit. Stuck on very well here last week over 2400M at 1st try over trip and should be right at peak now. Inside barrier is asking for trouble in a Caulfield Cup, and her chances of getting a run as 4th emergency would probably centre around a sudden out break of dodgy hot dogs down at the Werribee Quarantine Centre, but keep following her this spring - suspect she is going to go on. The firm track here today could be an issue – was given out as an excuse when only fell in here 2 starts back. Looks a solid chance in the Coogny Race 7, but again just a bit worried about the firm ground. Rough Summary: Surely this is one of the weaker Caulfield Cups? Or do we just have short term memory loss ? There are really very few with any sort of form in this race at all, so think there are very few genuine winning chances and actually a stack of value about some roughies. Caulfield Cups are always tough, hustle bustle affairs, with lots of hard luck stories and lots of interference. You are almost better off drawing out and staying in clear running most of the way. Caulfield Cup notes : - winning form is good form. Before the last two years with DESCARADO and VIEWED who were both unplaced in their lead up runs, it was all about winning form. In the 10 years before those two – 6 winners of this race had won their lead up race, and the rest had all placed. Each year there were only a few last start winners going around too. You really need to be in peak form to win a tough, competitive feature Group 1 race like this, and there are only 3 last start winners in this year’s field. - often the winner will come through the Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes, so look for those who put in good runs there and are dropping in weight into this. Although this year both those races didn’t really turn up much, except the favourite the 9-DECEMBER DRAW, and maybe the 18-SOUTHERN SPEED. - often the winner of this race cuts the corner ! They all go for home around the home turn, wide and wider, and something sneaks through on the rails and scoots through. VIEWED 2009, MASTER O’REILLY 2007, TAWQEET 2006, DIATRIBE 2000 all did this. Again the 18-SOUTHERN SPEED looks the best placed to pull off a miracle inside run. - on pacers drawn wide the last couple of years have actually gone really well. We are talking DESCARADO 2010, VIGOR 2009, BARBARICUS 2008 who all drew wide, or extremely wide, rolled forward and just kept on going. So don’t be too fussed if you fancy one that has drawn badly, as long as they are going to race handy on it. 16-GREEN MOON is the most likely of these. - the internationals ? Never been a fan, look back over the 10+ years worth of Caulfield and Melbourne Cup form guides on the website and see we have trashed the internationals from day one. Just no point betting on unknowns – it is hard enough betting on something you actually know about !. Let them have a run, line them up and take it from there – as least you can bet with some confidence. If you must back one, make it one of the outsiders, as the no name ones always seem to go better. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious leader this year, but there are plenty who can race handy drawn wide who are likely to go forward. Most likely we are talking 11-TULLAMORE , 16-GREEN MOON with 1-MIGHTY HIGH, 18-SOUTHERN SPEED camped behind them on the rails, and 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT , 9-DECEMBER DRAW, 14-NIWOT chasing along outside. Suspect they will roll along OK regardless and the internationals always prefer a solid tempo so one of them might roll forward early in the race. Pressure always goes on a long way from home, those caught back in the pack often miss the boat, so you want something sitting handy that is going to cut the corner and dash to the lead, or something that is going to be out and running before the home turn. Obvious pick here is the favourite 9-DECEMBER DRAW one of the very few in winning form, one of the very few in consistent form and just so very genuine. Will be interesting if he wins – can’t remember a year when we have had short priced favourites in the Caulfield Guineas / Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Cup. Let’s throw in a roughie for 2nd here, the 14-NIWOT who is about to strike form and assuming they will go forward from an outsider barrier. Just so many out of form and mixing form horses in this and suspect he is about to do something. If you can still find 100-1 somewhere grab it as an each way bet. Not much between the 18-SOUTHERN SPEED and the 16-GREEN MOON are the only other real dangers in this – don’t think there are many winning chances at all. Let’s go 18-SOUTHERN SPEED just because of the dry track and the good barrier, and suspect she might poke through and look the winner on the inside some time in the straight. 16-GREEN MOON should roll forward and be in this for a long way, just the month between runs a little concern. Best rough chance to 17-MACEDONIAN who will keep slogging away. Really on form the favourite should win – which has been the story with all three features this week, just a matter of if you want to go taking short odds in a Caulfield Cup. Plenty of value in the multiples though, so take trifectas and first fours around the 3 main winning chances, 9-DECEMBER DRAW, 16-GREEN MOON, 18-SOUTHERN SPEED – and really we think these are the only 3 winning chances, with the lovely value roughies 8-SHOOTOFF, 14-NIWOT , 17-MACEDONIAN One to risk: 5-LUCAS CRANACH 5th W=$15.60 Roughie: 17-MACEDONIAN The Key: Winning form and the class to win this race. RESULTS : Summed up that race pretty well, narrowing it down to just 3 main winning chances (9), (16),(18). Absolute perfection of a ride on 18-SOUTHERN SPEED, ridden forward to sit handy, once she was positioned 2 back on the fence you knew she was going to be hard to beat. 16-GREEN MOON super tough effort on the speed, even roughie 14-NIWOT gave us a cheap thrill by kicking to the lead around the turn - even if it was only for a few seconds. Solid runs by the internationals 3-MANIGHAR, 5-LUCAS CRANACH filling the tradition 4th to 6ths spots as they do every year. Actually the one to follow here might actually be 4-UNUSUAL SUSPECT who finished on OK and probably has a fair bit of improvement to come. |
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