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CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD CUP - 20th Oct 2012
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 6M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Been a fine dry week in Melbourne and there will probably be a bit of talk about this track getting quite firm – which we think is quite likely. Track manager has said they will aim to have a GOOD(3) by race time, so they will water it and it will dry out as the day goes on. Last Saturday the track raced quite fairly, they could stick on OK on speed early on, but in the later races the runners on were to the fore either due to the increased speed or racing pattern. Smaller fields and often not much speed here on Weds, but the on pacers seemed to stick on pretty well. We have been saying it a lot, but just be wary that Caulfield has been extremely leaderish in recent months, particularly on firm tracks and drying days and there is a good chance that is going to happen again here today. With a bit of over watering to avoid any controversy it will probably race fairly early, but don’t be surprised if the inside dries out quicker and the on pacers dominate later in the day – even on a wearing track.

Caulfield Cup day can be a bit of a dubious betting day, 10 races, always seems to be half of Sydney comes down to race and Sydney horses often go well on this day. With lots of visitors it can be hard to line up form lines. Don’t think there will be that many surprise results and we have ended up going with most of the well supported runners. So betting strategy is probably to just back one or two straight out to win in most races at around $4 or better.

RESULTS: Lots of fairly short priced favourites and not all of them get up - was a case of everyone focussing too much on the same runners in every race. Perfect weather, track races really fairly, they can win on speed or running on. Ideal. Tips and Betting Portfolio are frustratingly close to the money all day.


BEST WIN: Race 5: 4-GALAH $8 WIN X
TRIFECTA: Race 5 : 4,5 / 4,5,8,11,13 / 4,5,8,11,13 x $5 = 20.83% 2nd 5-KING'S ROSE 2nd W=$2.00 / 1st 13-WHATEVERWHENEVER W=$12.80 / 3rd 8-MCCLINTOCK W=$17.30
Won on this day last year and was seriously unlucky 1st up down the straight when was finishing full of momentum, and had nowhere to go and pretty much hit a brick wall. Was a bit flat during Sydney Autumn campaign but his form last spring was top notch. If he is back to his best will go very close here. Probably drifts back a little, but there is enough speed here and just wants them to be running on OK. Just looks value at around $8 – the favourite the 5-KING’S ROSE is the obvious danger, there wasn’t much between them last start and he meets her slightly better on the weights. Just looks value in comparison. Back to win, and realistically one of these two probably wins so take a trifecta with some value in the on pace runners – especially the 8-MCCLINTOCK and 11-RENEWED VITALITY.
RESULTS: 4-GALAH just settles too far back in a race with quite a few good on pacers. Short priced favourite 2nd 5-KING'S ROSE just dies on her run which was a shame cause we had the other runners, including the winner nicely covered in the trifecta.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 2-JIMANDO $5 WIN X
QUINELLA: Race 3: 2-JIMANDO, 5-HVASSTAN x $4 1st 5-HVASSTAN W=$4.60
QUINELLA: Race 3: 2-JIMANDO, 3-PHILIPPI x $3 SCR $3
Doesn’t seem to be much support for his one, even though these three fought out the finish last start. Guess most expect that the (3) and the (5) are the stronger stayers going up to the 2000M. However, this one was caught wide, had to go to the lead and really only just got nabbed inside the last 100M. Best of all he meets them much better on weights, 3.5kgs and 2.kgs. Looks great value at around $7 and in a small field wouldn’t be a bad idea to stroll forward here and try and grab a kick on the more staying types. So back to win, and take quinellas with the two dangers from last time.
RESULTS: Doesn't go forward, and is the first horse beaten and pulled up with something wrong with it. Winner just keeps on getting into the finish and is very, very consistent.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 15-ALCOPOP $5 EW 2nd W=$13.30, P=$3.80 = 5 x 3.80 = $19
Just have to have something on our top pick in the Caulfield Cup, else what sort of tipping service would we be ? This is old school form, before the internationals, where you just picked out the best WFA horses from the Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes, picked the best runs, picked the place getters and picked those getting nice drops in weight. Seriously, this one looks really well in this race, finally, finally gets a dry track and just a matter of him being not too far back coming to the turn so he can ping and sprint clear – cause he has a devastating burst when in the right spot. Happy to have something each way at around $18.
RESULTS: Sheesh. Have to admit we went the early crow when 15-ALCOPOP loomed up on the turn and went ping and kicked clear. That is exactly what we wanted it to do - he has an amazing sprint burst when put in the right spot. Thought he had pinched the race. Probably just failed to run out the 2400M and really was beaten by a horse that might just be a freak in 2-DUNADEN. That was up there with the great Caulfield Cup wins. Still - shame - the top pick almost pinched it.

BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 4-CANALI $3 EW 2nd W=$10.90, P=$3.00 = 3 x 3 = $9
Jump and run dry track sprinter who will get conditions to suit here. Probably only one other that will push to the lead and that is the favourite the (7) so there is not that much speed for a sprint race. Last run here was good when didn’t get to lead, but loomed up and just seemed to fade on the run. Would be improved by that and worth something each way here at $10 or better.
RESULTS: Doesn't get the lead, the favourite the (7) does but tries extremely hard to chase him down. Solid run.

BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 4-ROYAL BENDER $2 EW LATE SCR $4
Very even and interesting race the last. We do quite like the 2-LADY MELKSHAM who is much better suited back in distance, sitting just off a very fast speed here and hit the lead last start too early into a ferocious head wind. So she probably wins, but she is a little on the short side at $3.10. The 1-SERENE STAR we collected on last week and that was a huge win – her finishing burst there was outstanding. Speed on here will suit, and she is a straight out winner – so won’t be surprised if she wins again, just a little wary of her dropping back in distance, and up in weights, even with the speed on. So, to cut a long story short, let’s have something each way on the roughie 4-ROYAL BENDER. Think she is a little under rated, whilst she prefers some give in the track her last two runs on firm tracks have been good, wasn’t far off them in open listed company last start. She is going to be suited here drawn out a little with the speed on and having a clear crack at them. Something each way at around $14, but probably starts longer on the tote on the day.
RESULTS: Well we were pushing for a possible profit coming into the last, but there is no getting out when you get scratched at the barrier.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 12-SUMMERBLISS at around $3.50 2nd W=$4.80
Not knocking this one’s form, and won well at maiden, but it is a bit unusual to have an unfancied $10 maiden winner come into a staying listed raced as a short priced favourite. Might go on with it, but really in a field of 16, all on the same weight, most with only a few starts you would think something is going to pop up at odds so probably the last race you would be wanting to go backing the favourite in. Happy to go around.
RESULTS: Bit lucky to get out of this one, stayed on really well and is probably going to rapidly improve. Won't be laying her again.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 5,6,7(scr),14,15 x 50 cents = $5 $2 2nd 15-ALCOPOP W=$13.30
Always plenty of value around in the ultimate challenge – scoring the multiples in the feature spring Cups. We have gone old school and just boxed up the place getters from the Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes and the best other runs from those races. Actually most of these are at good odds in an open Caulfield Cup so should be looking at a $50 to $100 quinella if history repeats itself against the brave new world of the international stayer.
RESULTS: Great run by the top pick 15-ALCOPOP to almost pinch it, but it is hard up against the internationals.

RESULT: RETURN
SPENT: $50
RETURN: $37
NET: $-13


The Tips:

Race 1: 5-A TIME FOR JULIA, 4-THUNDER RAIN, 7-ZORIA
Race 2: 4-LIMES, 6-CRYSTAL WEB, 8-DIVINE MOON.
Race 3: 2-JIMANDO, 5-HVASSTAN, 3-PHILIPPI
Race 4: 3-CAMEO, 6-OPERATION TWIST, 8-ALZORA
Race 5: 4-GALAH, 5-KING’S ROSE, 8-MCCLINTOCK
Race 6: 4-CANALI, 7-HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME, 1-MID SUMMER MUSIC
Race 7: 5-LIGHTINTHENITE, 8-DAME CLAIRE, 2-BAGMAN
Race 8: 15-ALCOPOP, 6-VOILA ICI, 5-DECEMBER DRAW
Race 9: 1-MOSHEEN, 4-RED TRACER, 13-NEW BEGINNING
Race 10: 2-LADY MELKSHAM, 4-ROYAL BENDER, 11-TRES VITE



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
5-A TIME FOR JULIA 1st W=$2.00
4-THUNDER RAIN
7-ZORIA

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
4-LIMES 3rd W=$4.30
6-CRYSTAL WEB 2nd W=$18.60
8-DIVINE MOON

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
2-JIMANDO
5-HVASSTAN 1st W=$4.60
3-PHILIPPI SCR

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
3-CAMEO
6-OPERATION TWIST
8-ALZORA 1st W=$21.70 *** Nice roughie winner ***

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
4-GALAH
5-KING’S ROSE 2nd W=$2.00
8-MCCLINTOCK 3rd W=$17.30

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
4-CANALI 2nd W=$10.90
7-HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME 1st W=$3.30
1-MID SUMMER MUSIC

Quinella: $16.60

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
5-LIGHTINTHENITE 1st W=$2.60
8-DAME CLAIRE
2-BAGMAN 2nd W=$6.00

Quinella: $5.90

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
15-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$13.30
6-VOILA ICI
5-DECEMBER DRAW

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
1-MOSHEEN
4-RED TRACER 3rd W=$5.30
13-NEW BEGINNING

RACE 10: RESULTS
Tips:
2-LADY MELKSHAM
4-ROYAL BENDER LATE SCR
11-TRES VITE



RACE 8: CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1
Tips:
15-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$13.30
6-VOILA ICI
5-DECEMBER DRAW

Others: 14, 7,9

Pace: GENUINE
Leaders: 6-VOILA ICI (wide), 9-GLENCADAM GOLD (wide)
Handy: 5-DECEMBER DRAW, 10-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 11-NIWOT, 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 14-SNEAK A PEEK, 17-FOLDING GEAR , 19-SABRAGE (emerg)
Back: 1-AMERICAIN, 2-DUNADEN, 3-JAKKALBERRY, 4-WINCHESTER, 7-SOUTHERN SPEED , 8-SANAGAS, 13-SECRET ADMIRER , 16-MOUDRE, 18-ZABEELIONAIRE, 15-ALCOPOP, 20-GATEWOOD (emerg), 22-FICTIONAL ACCOUNT (emerg)

Chances:
5-DECEMBER DRAW is the come back galloper looking for a fairy tale story for his poor trainer who has had shocking luck with favourites in this race over the years. Form last spring was super, was flying and came into this race a very well supported $3.30 favourite – which was probably too short in hind sight. Suffered a broken bone which is probably a fairly good excuse for his poor run and was dropped out of the race. Has been taken along very slowly, had a full year off, slowly worked back into form and you would think they would be peaking him for this. Last 2 runs have been good in the traditional lead up races for this – both very similar in that he has positioned and got great runs and loomed, but just found one better. Should be right at peak now with the 3 runs in, and only carrying ½ kgs more than last year. The only question mark with this one is the 2400M – that is probably as far as he wants, so if it is a sit and sprint Caulfield Cup he is probably fine, if they run along and it turns into a hard slog he might loom up again but just fail to finish it off. Big pluses with this one though are that he is fit, in form and competitive and there are so few with real form going into this race. He will also take a position and has the dash to run into this race which is the sort of horse you want for a Caulfield Cup. This is the race they have been setting him for, unlike many others going around here. Chance.

6-VOILA ICI has been showing some promise since settling Down Under. 1st up he showed speed to go forward over an unsuitable short trip before fading when it got to the business end of the race. 2nd up he led and kicked strongly in the home straight – and took some effort for one to come out and run him down. Then in the Turnbull last start at Flemington he put on a right royal singing and dancing show before the race, refusing to go to the barrier and tended to over race in the lead. Still wasn’t beaten that far. Traditionally, before the invasion wave of internationals the Turnbull was just about the best form line for this race. Fitter for the 3 runs in, following a traditional Caulfield Cup preparation for a local trainer, used to local conditions, jockey is in close to the best form of his career and would love a chance to snare a big one. 2400M record is pretty solid – 4 wins from 10 starts, and just seems to have more speed and versatility than many going around here who are using this as a warm up for the 3200M Melbourne Cup. The outside barrier isn’t as bad as it seems, he can go forward here and sit wide and avoid all the trouble that so often happens in a Caulfield Cup – and quite a few horses have stuck on wide from outsider barriers in recent years. Looks suited in this and think he is a great winning chance. Seems way over the odds at $21 – solid each way bet for us. Strong chance.

7-SOUTHERN SPEED is last year’s winner who was going along just as well, if not better this year around before last start failure. Form this time in had been excellent, had been winning in shorter races which she normally doesn’t do, tough win at Flemington when went for home early into a strong headwind, and was the best of the runners on out wide in the Underwood – and her last 50M there were really good. Then something was obviously wrong in the Turnbull, she dropped out quickly and jockey reported she felt lethargic even before the race. As opposed to those who backed her who felt rather ill after the race. Have to take on trust she is OK and can get back to form – guess you can always forgive them one bad run, but it is always hard to bet with confidence when there are out of norm bad runs like that with no obvious reason. Two jockeys, Williams and Boss have now jumped off her as well which is a worry. But she is drawn to get a clear run at them, won this race last year, really without last run she seems to be going even better this year. Hard to back with confidence, but wouldn’t be surprised if she wins again. Chance. SCR

9-GLENCADAM GOLD is the form staying horse of the spring and seems to be on the up. And guess what – yet another international come local. Who would have thought ? So much for Melbourne vs Sydney vs New Zealand, they have been left in the wake of the international buying spree. It must be like the Boxing Day sales over there as cashed up Aussie owners go chasing local stayers throwing wads of money around. Lightly raced, good win strike rate and seems to have adjusted to life down under very quickly indeed. In winning form, and so few of this field is, and you really need to be at your peak to win a tough competitive Group 1 feature. Carried weight to win the Newcastle Cup and never challenged to an easy win in the Metropolitan. Stable had a dead set super shocker of a week here last Saturday with two unbeatable short priced favourites going down, so guess they are due to turn it all around. Question is going to be the strength of what he has been beating in Sydney. Drawn outside barrier and will have to work to go forward to normal racing pattern on the speed – be interesting to see if they try to cross or just sit out wide in clear room. Thought he was crazy odds last weekend at under $4 in a very even field where any of about a dozen could suddenly and rapidly improve. Outside barrier has seen him drift, but still think he is under the odds at the moment. The only thing that bothers us slightly is that the stable had HERCULIAN PRINCE in this race a few years back, who whilst not undefeated was going along well, leading, winning by big margins, won the Metropolitan by a similar margin and didn’t measure up in this race. Regardless this one is in winning form, will make his own luck on the speed whilst the rest are finding trouble back in the field and has to go in as a winning chance. Just not sure he represents value – maybe prefer to speck a few of the improvers at odds. Chance.

14-SNEAK A PEEK is yet another international come local and surely they must all be squatting in some cheap accommodation somewhere near Flemington, working bars for cash to get by. Fitter for the 3 runs in and he has been seriously unlucky his last two starts – both times he has been caught up at the back of the field held up for runs with plenty to give. Big race jockey on board is a big plus. Probably the best of the late finishers in the Turnbull and that is normally the form race for this. Lightly raced, good win strike rate and just looks ready to do something, like quite a few in this race. Drawn out a bit is good, might want clear running so he can have a clean crack at them. Suspect jockey will settle him a lot closer to the speed today as well. Lot to like about the last two runs, and ridden more forward suspect he is going to loom or ping clear early in the straight today. Strong chance.

15-ALCOPOP is one we have a bit of time for and has a stack of ability but just hasn’t had much luck heading into this race. Was all the rage in Spring 2009 with flying rapidly improving form – and actually started favourite in the Melbourne Cup in that year. Trainer is probably still kicking himself that he forget to enter him in the Caulfield Cup that year cause he would have gone very close to winning. Key to this one is a firm dry track – and he is finally going to get one. Just go back and watch his flying Herbert Power win in Oct 2009 – that is what we are talking about. Ran an absolutely slashing race in the Caulfield Stakes in 2010 behind SO YOU THINK, really flew home that day, and we liked him in this race that year, but then struck a super heavy track which is totally not his thing. Showed some promise last spring before campaign was abandoned. He hasn’t been over raced, on his peak form he has an amazing turn of foot, especially on dry tracks and really if he repeated his run in the Caulfield Stakes of 2010 he would just about win this race. Form this time in though has been a little sluggish, 5 runs in, but looks like they have been slowly getting him into form and he did run on well in the JRA Cup before looming like he was going to cause the upset here last week. Really like the way he hit the line here last week and that race is often a good guide to the Caulfield Cup. Have to admit do wish they would put a big name jockey on board. Drawn a nice barrier, would be good to see him settle midfield or better rather than dropping out to the back of the field – to be honest if he drops out think he has next to no chance – so you will know during the run how you are going. Would be an interesting story though if the small trainer from Adelaide out witted a strong international field – but you know what ? Genuinely think he is a strong chance today, no weight, nice barrier, devastating turn of foot when right. Just needs to settle a bit more forward and dash into the race in the straight – if he gets into the right spot think he can win this. On his true form he can win this. Strong chance. 2nd W=$13.30

Place:
2-DUNADEN is another who is well known to locals having dropped by for a quick Geelong and Melbourne Cup win last year. Ultra consistent and well travelled type who you know will have travelled well and settled in – he is a professional world traveller. Incredibly unlucky back at Ascot in June on the day BLACK CAVIAR won, he ran into serious trouble about 3-4 times in the run home and still had the guts to come again. Obviously wanting to do his best in front of the Queen. Equal top weight and those at the top of the weights don’t have the best record in this race. Local jockey has ridden him a few times and seems to know him pretty well – they have said in the press this week that he is about a week behind where they want him to be and that they wanted a barrier to get cover so he would settle – unfortunately they draw barrier 22. Ouch. Still think he will be finishing on strongly, but again it may be a little too late and probably run on for one of those “good Melbourne Cup trials” finishing on well for a 5th or 6th. Prefer place. 1st W=$12.50

4-WINCHESTER is one of the dozens and dozens of internationals come locals going around this year. Crazy fads. Next year it will probably be yo-yos yet again. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and there are a lot of people out there willing to push him and his Melbourne Cup chances. Solid 2400M record, doesn’t look like a firm track will bother him too much. He has made good ground late at both his runs this time in which is a very promising sign and was coming home very strongly at the end of the Turnbull. Drops 2kgs into this race – guess the issue with this one is that there were about a half dozen from the Turnbull who finished in front of him going around here as well – and many of them had similar strong finishing runs. Another who is likely to rapidly improve as the distances increase and he does seem to be slowly building up to something special this spring. Drawn out, like to drop well back and ran on late, but suspect it will be too late to be a winning chance and prefer place. Place.

10-MY QUEST FOR PEACE is an international runner who gets into this down towards the bottom of the weights and trainer has a good record down under without actually pinching one of the big Cups. Last start winner is a big plus – winning form is important going into these races. Lightly raced, good win strike rate. Controversy during the week with jockey Oliver getting dumped from the party list cause he is not popular at the moment – and he will be waiting by the finishing line for his share if this one earns any prize money. Key here is that this one has drawn a barrier, and there seems to be the intention to go forward here which would be a plus. Good chance the inside might be the place to be as well. Could possibly lead ? Just would want to be leading or sitting just behind the leader, don’t think they would want him squashed back on the rails in the middle of the field, no-one wants to be there in a Caulfield Cup, especially if you don’t have a quick turn of foot to put yourself into the race before the turn. He is probably going to be the best supported of the internationals that we have not seen before – and fair enough too. Might get well backed. In winning form , will go forward and make own luck and will give him a winning chance on that basis alone. Not sure he is going to start value though. Place.

12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN has been avoiding Melbourne all spring, probably wants to lay low after being such a massive flop last spring when had a huge spruik on here and got beaten as short priced favourite a few times. Moody stable are well and truly over due to win one of the spring features. Fitter for the three runs in, first two were a little ordinary , but settled on the speed and raced well last start. Gets nice weight drop back to a handicap. She seemed to get back to form last winter in QLD – she was consistently in the finish in every start up there. Start of last spring she was pencilled in for all the majors and was early favourite for this race from memory, but just didn’t really seem to come up. She does seem ready to ping. Just starting to wonder now if she is better the Sydney / Brisbane way of going and suspect she might be slightly better with a bit of give in the ground – and we are looking at a very firm track today. Nice barrier and will race on the speed. Think she is under the odds at around $10 at the moment, it is actually a bit hard to know how well she is really going with only the one good run this time in. But drawn well, still good win strike rate and ability on her day puts her in the finish. Prefer place. 3rd W=$10.00

19-SABRAGE (emerg) is another 4YO and they have a good record in this race. Form this time in is actually better than it looks. 2nd up was racing erratically when making really good ground inside horses. 3rd up jumped better than expected and went to the lead, which is not his normal racing pattern and got a little lost when one went early for home around home and threw off his pacing. Raced handy and didn’t show much here last week, but small field and sit sprint probably didn’t suit. Horses often win this coming through the Caulfield Stakes or Turnbull and like that he has had 4 runs in and 2 x 2000M runs – whereas most of his rivals have only had the three runs in. First emergency so unlikely to get a start regardless and wide draw means he is probably going to get caught wide mid field most of the way. Caulfield form is OK and might settle mid field or better. If he gets into the field suspect he might actually run a lot better than most people think – if you want to have a play bet on a $150 shot – go for it. Rough place.

20-GATEWOOD (emerg) is an international with no weight and at least we have seen him this spring so we can see he is going along OK. Got extremely well backed here last week – and as is so often the case it was the unfancied international who won ! Got held up for runs around the home turn and into the straight so didn’t have the best of luck. Seems to be very dour though – not sure the Caulfield Cup is his thing. Solid staying type with no weight, would probably want to take off early from wide barrier and go for home and turn it into a strong staying test. Realistically unlikely to make the field as 2nd emergency regardless. Guess he goes in as a rough chance if he gets a start – if he does watch how well backed he is – suspect they will back him quite heavily. Rough only. SCR

Sacking:
1-AMERICAIN has spent a fair bit of time down under so at least his form is exposed down here. Stunning form in Spring 2010 when won the Geelong Cup and then won a strong Melbourne Cup where his ability to run out a distance shone through. Came back in Spring 2011 and MV Cup win was excellent there when bailed up inside runners around tight MV with big weight, then probably not the best ride in last year’s Melbourne Cup when trying to win coming from last – and it is just about impossible to win Melbourne Cups coming from last – just gave some others too big a start in that race but was still working home. After that he switched to a local trainer for an autumn preparation in Aus, and whilst his from was OK, he didn’t really live up to his previous form – again just working home nicely in most his races but finding one or two too sharp. Sent back to France to boarding school to get back to the top of his game, so be interesting to see how he performs this spring back to his old trainer. Drawn outside barrier is good for this one, he needs some space, but the query here will be the quite firm ground, the big weight (top weights don’t have a great record in this race), and the hustle bustle of a capacity Caulfield Cup. Can just see him settling back and working home nicely for around 5th or 6th, but happy to let him run today. No 4th W=$20.80

3-JAKKALBERRY is another international having his first tour down under. Good win strike rate but the question with these is always how well they have adjusted to life down under. Normally the Caulfield Cup is just a warm up run for the Melbourne Cup and it is a matter of just working home nicely at the end of the race. Watch the market to see how much support he gets. He is another well travelled one so you would think he should cope OK. Drawn out a little which is good, will probably settle back and make a long run around them mid race and turn it into a real staying contest. Just so hard with these ones though, effectively betting on unknowns and invariably the one that pops into the finish is the one at longest odds regardless. Last start winner which is a big plus – so few last start winners in this race and they actually have a pretty good record. Probably finishes in the first ten, but hard to back with confidence. Risking.

8-SANAGAS is an international come local trained by Bart. Normally with his impressive record in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup any Bart Cummings runner is doomed to start way under its real odds on the tote due to mass popular support – but think this one might be an exception. Form is dreadful. Utterly dreadful. Really has not shown anything in 3 runs this time in, might improve now that the distances are increasing, but likely to drop back here from inside barrier in this big field and would need luck even if was going OK. Which he isn’t. No

11-NIWOT is a capable stayer on his day and always takes a few runs in to find his form. Fitter for the 3 runs in which have all been OK and probably just about ready to do something as he steps up in distance. Seven starts at Caulfield for 0-0-0 is a bit of a worry – he is more of a Flemington horse. Raced really well during the Autumn being competitive in everything he was entered in. We actually tipped him as a chance in this race last year, the jockey went far too early on him and he kicked clear around the home turn, only to fade and be run down – but he won the start after that. Just worth nothing that last year his form was probably better, although he has been contesting unsuitable WFA races this time around. Nice barrier here is a plus and he might position not too far off the speed here and have his chance. Couldn’t win this last year with better form (ignoring the poor ride by the jockey) so hard to see him doing it this year, but probably a super rough place chance if you are chasing a monster First Four dividend. No

13-SECRET ADMIRER is a well-regarded feature miler taking an unusual preparation into this race. Really good strong finisher over the mile, she is fitter for her 4 runs in, but she hasn’t been going quite as well this time in as she has in other preparations. She is running on, but just grinding, rather than flashing home. Guess that could mean she is looking for more ground? Or simply she is not racing her best at the moment. Only 2 starts past 1600M for a well held 4th in the Queen Elizabeth in Sydney in Autumn, but wasn’t beaten that far in last year’s Cox Plate. In a sit and sprint, turn of foot Caulfield Cup guess you wouldn’t rule out a nice strong finishing miler, the problem is though these days one of the internationals will often roll around the outside early and put the pressure on a long way from home and that is likely to bring her undone. Likely to drop back, will need luck and can’t see her passing stronger stayers at the end of 2400M. Passing.

16-MOUDRE is one with a stack of ability who just hasn’t had the breaks go his way. Spent most of Spring 2010 in top form, and competitive in the very best staying races – but just couldn’t get a ticket into the Cups. Not on ebay, nor gumtree – nowhere. Injured in Australian Cup in March 2011 and given a full year off, on full pay to recuperate. Looked to have come back in top form with flashing run 1st up in the Makybe Diva, was held up for runs that day before getting clear and probably should have finished a lot, lot closer. Then very disappointing in the Turnbull Stakes where trainer reported might have jarred up on the hard track. On his best form he would be right in this – has a powerful finishing burst. But he is a better Flemington horse and is better with a little give in the ground – and that is probably the biggest issue here – fine sunny weather going into Sat and this track is likely to come up quite firm. Going into this with only the 2 runs in which is a very light preparation for a local horse. Drawn inside, will drop back and will need luck to burst through the field. Prefer to see.

17-FOLDING GEAR is a lightly raced local showing a lot of potential and again, winning form is so important going into these feature races. Caulfield form is excellent – 3 wins from 5 starts. Fitter for the 3 runs in, didn’t have much luck 2nd up when didn’t get much room in the straight and then have to like the way he peeled out and chased them home last start. Nice light weight for a fit in form horse with a good winning strike rate. Drawn well and probably races just behind the speed here and might cut the corner here and dash for home around the turn which is often how Caulfield Cups are won. Bit surprised they didn’t give him another run going into this – been 4 weeks now since his last run. Guess the question mark with this one is whether he has the class to win this, but seems to have untapped potential, no weight and is in form. Yet to be tried past 2000M either. Just suspect he might find this too great a step. Prefer to risk.

18-ZABEELIONAIRE is a classic staying winning 3YO, but the question is always whether these ones come up in their 4YO season. Fitter for the 3 runs in, over shorter unsuitable distances and at WFA or set weights, so much better suited here back to a handicap with no weight. Hasn’t really shown much at all this time in, ran on just Ok in the Underwood, guess though none of the races were that suitable. 4YOs actually have a really good record in this race and there aren’t many contesting it this year. Problem here is the barrier 1, drop back horse, stuck in hustle bustle Caulfield Cup, that’s just asking for trouble. Hard to get enthused about his form. No

21-IBICENCO (emerg) - SCRATCHED

22-FICTIONAL ACCOUNT (emerg) has got about as much chance of making the field as 4th emergency as we do of tipping the final finishing order in order, and then becoming the first man to hang glide to earth from space. Been running in weaker races and another international looking for distance but plenty of his country men are going a lot better than him. No

Summary: This is a very open edition of the Caulfield Cup, and really there are about a dozen winning chances, mainly cause there are so many here who have had a few runs in, ran on OK and are capable of sudden and rapid improvement to win this.

Caulfield Cups are often quite tough, hustle bustle affairs, with lots of hard luck stories and lots of interference. You are almost better off drawing out and staying in clear running most of the way. To win, you want to settle midfield, and make a dash into the race just before the turn, those who are further back will run on, but invariably strike trouble.

Caulfield Cup notes :
- as with any of the spring features, winning form is good form. You really need to be at your peak to win a spring feature. Last three years we have had SOUTHERN SPEED, DESCARADO and VIEWED win who were all unplaced in their lead up runs. However, in the 10 years before that – 6 winners of this race had won their lead up race, and the rest had all placed. Each year there are only a few last start winners going around too.
- often the winner will come through the Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes, so look for those who put in good runs there and are dropping in weight into this. Though this year it is a bit tougher as there were plenty who ran on well in the Turnbull who can suddenly improve.
- position in running is important, you really want to draw a barrier and peel out and run into the race on the home turn, not being held up for runs back in the field. You can already just about list out those runners that are going to run on too late in “good Melbourne Cup trials”. Unfortunately no bookmaker pays out on that.
- normally the horses to follow into this race are lightly raced 4YO or 5YO, on the rise, hitting peak form this campaign, getting in with no weight off good WFA runs. These are normally very well backed. However this year we have struck a bit of an older crowd and there doesn’t seem to be any
horse that meets that criteria.

Speed here should be pretty solid as they all try and get a position in running before they turn out of the straight. 6-VOILA ICI, 9-GLENCADAM GOLD both need to cross from outside barriers, but there is no reason why either of them can’t sit wide on the speed and avoid the trouble. They may even kick up on 10-MY QUEST FOR PEACE from an inside barrier. 5-DECEMBER DRAW, 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, will settle just behind these.

Traditionally, it is the place getters from the Turnbull and Caulfield Stakes that win this race. Different sort of field this year with so many internationals that can suddenly improve, but if you stick to the old, tired, and possibly out dated criteria those coming through the traditional lead up races are way over the odds. Playing favourite a little bit, cause we do like this one, but really this is his chance today – and he has been waiting 3-4 years for everything to fall into place. So, 15-ALCOPOP on top, dry track, no weight, he has the class on his best form to win this and really liked his last 50M last week – seems to be striking form at the right time. Just want the jockey to settle closer than usual, split a gap and ping for home right on the turn – he has the turn of foot to kick and win this. Let’s hope they give him every chance and don’t try and ride him cold at the back of the field from a good barrier - if they do that he has no hope. He just seems really well weighted for a horse with genuine WFA form and a genuine WFA turn of foot. Suspect 6-VOILA ICI is going to roll on the speed here and kick clear sometime in the straight, has really fought on well his last two starts, just depends on how much he gets used up early from an outside barrier – and that the crowd doesn’t set him off. 5-DECEMBER DRAW has all the right form, set for this race and trainer is due for a change of luck. Another who will race handy and run into this at the right time. 14-SNEAK A PEEK probably the best rough chance, suspect big race jockey will put him into a much better position today. Wouldn’t write off 7-SOUTHERN SPEED either who seems to have been forgotten and got out to silly odds. Probably back a few of these to win and take a box quinella in a very even Caulfield Cup. Happy punting.

One to risk: 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN 3rd W=$10.00
Roughie: 14-SNEAK A PEEK, 19-SABRAGE (emerg)

The Key: Avoiding trouble and getting into race at the right time

RESULTS: Tempo is quite fast, especially early and the two leaders knock each other out. Have to admit went the early crow when 15-ALCOPOP did pretty much as predicted, loomed on the turn and went ping - he has such a devastating turn of foot when let loose. Thought he was home ! Probably just failed to run out the 2400M and got mowed down by the 2-DUNADEN whose finishing burst was extraordinary. 1-AMERICAIN ran on well, but suspect he will need a wet track to beat the winner in the Melbourne Cup and 4-WINCHESTER ran on well again - but you get the feeling he might just do that every run this spring. Again, just can't see the point of backing the internationals till you have seen them run down under, those they can prove they can do it come back and run well again.


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