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Sportsbet are paying out to 4 places on the Caulfield Cup. |
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| CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 19th Oct 2013 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: WARM - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Has been fine weather most of the week, but rain, hail and thunder around on Thursday, becoming fine and hot again heading into the weekend and this track should come up quite firm – especially by the time they get to the Caulfield Cup as the last race. That is if you last that long – with the first race at 12:15 and a one hour gap before Race 10: The Caulfield Cup at 5:45pm. May be able to nick home for a nap in between hopefully. Rail goes out 6M as it normally does for the Caulfield Cup. If the sun really comes out and we get a rapidly drying track the racing pattern may favour on pacers here, though that normally only happens when the rail is TRUE. But Caulfield can get quite leaderish on firm dry tracks – especially when they kick off the corner, so as always watch the first few races and work it out for yourself. Or at least work out what the jockeys think the racing pattern is, regardless of fact, as once they believe in something they tend to stick to it ! Often this day is when the Sydney horses dominate so keep an eye out for our interstate friends and try to include them in your investments. This is a really good betting day, only the Cup, Races 5 and 9 are wide open, the rest of the races really there are only a very few chances and probably the best betting tactic is to back the top pick each way in each race, or have win bets on the top 2 or 3 selections. Going to double up to $100 with plenty to bet on. RESULTS: Give out some good advice here with a firm drying track the racing pattern favours on pacers and those making their runs closest to the fence, whilst interstate visitors win most of the races. Punters have a field day with lots of well backed runners saluting and our tips go OK - just still can't snare a profit in the Betting Portfolio. BEST BET: Race 3: 7-FANTOME GRIS $15 WIN X EXACTA: Race 3: 2,3,4-7 x $2 = $6 1st 2-ARABIAN GOLD W=$3.20, 2nd 3-SOLICIT W=$5.80 / X Still a maiden, but really liked the run of this one last start in the Edward Manifold. Sitting last out the back on the fence, had to switch around the whole field and was making considerable ground late. Just seems to be rapidly improving and the extra distance should suit. Oliver on board a big plus too. Don’t think she will be missed though so probably looking at odds of around $5. Pretty keen, that was actually one of the best runs we have seen so far this spring, just hoping that the odds hold up OK. Back her straight out , and as a saver let’s put on an exacta in case she gets beaten with the main dangers the (2),(3), and (4) - seeing our win bets tend to run 2nd and all. Very keen on this one. RESULTS: Drops well back and the racing pattern is favouring on pacers - but is disappointing regardless. Think we got a wee bit over excited about a maiden horse that ran on for 4th at its last start. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 11-BRING SOMETHING $7 EW X QUINELLA: Race 4: 11-BRING SOMETHING – 4,5,8,9 x $2 = $8 X / 2nd 4-SAN DIEGO W=$4.20, 3rd 5-EPIC SAGA W=$10.50 The Norman Robinson is a bit of a different race this year with no Sydney horses going around. The last two 3YO staying races have been pretty messy and there doesn’t seem to be much between a stack of these. But really liked the run of this one in the Bill Stutt Stakes. The form from that race really held up here last week with 1st and 2nd home filling the placings in the Caulfield Guineas. This one has only had the 3 starts and still is in his first preparation, but was an eye catcher flying home late and the extra distance should suit. Worth nothing he was even with the favourite here the (4) on the turn at MV, and was pulling away from him on the line - but is going to start longer odds than him today. Looks a nice each way bet at around $7, and anchor him in quinellas with some of the other chances here as in an even field the quinella should pay $20 or so. RESULTS: Another who drops too far back against the racing pattern and doesn't do much. In hindsight, jumping on two maidens as the best bets of the day - not a great idea. QUINELLA: Race 7: 11-CHIARAMONTE, 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM x $5 1st 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM W=$6.30 QUINELLA: Race 7: 11-CHIARAMONTE, 7-PAGO ROCK x $3 4th 7-PAGO ROCK W=$6.90 QUINELLA: Race 7: 11-CHIARAMONTE, 4-READY TO RIP x $3 3rd 4-READY TO RIP W=$10.10 We have backed this one the last two starts here and both times his runs have been identical. Sat on the speed, kicked in the straight and looked the winner – and been run down by one finishing late. So we are going to learn our lesson and just back him in quinellas. Does look extremely well placed here, at the bottom of the weights, hard against the fence on a track that will probably favour leaders and in a sprint race without actually that much speed ! Only ever missed the place once in 12 career starts and should be in this for a long way – well until something runs past him at least, so quinellas with the (5), (7) and (4) as the most likely candidates. RESULTS: Pretty unlucky here with our main chance the 11-CHIARAMONTE missing the place after giving up the lead and being held up for runs for the length of the straight - and picking all the others that were in the finish. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 11-KOONOOMOO $5 EW 2nd W=$30.10, P=$6.40 = 6.40 x 5 = $32 The mares race is a tough field with 16 horses and a lot of quality mares going around, but we are going to push for this one at odds of around $25, and suspect you will get better odds on the tote on the day. Fitter for the 2 runs in, had the 1400M run this time in, 1st up had to lump a big weight at MV, and then ran on really well here last week. Looks ready to do something. Did win a Group 3 1400M race at long odds during Cup week last year. She likes firm tracks, has a very explosive finishing burst when right and should be able to get perfect sit here from a nice barrier. Tough race, but she has some ability. Have something each way. RESULTS: Spot on the money here, with the roughie of the day getting a great on pace sit and hitting the lead about 200M out before a more classy one came out and run her down. Great run at nice odds though. BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 10-MORIARTY $5 EW X Going to have something each way on our roughie in the Caulfield Cup as well. In a field where very few have been in winning form this time in and all the focus is on a messy, bunched finish in the Turnbull Stakes he appeals as a different form line. 2400 fit, should have finished closer last start, keeps his form when he finds it and really it just a matter of if he can run on OK dropping back from an outside barrier here. Suspect we might get an upset result this year in a field with not much real form, so he is our best guess at a upset at around $31. RESULTS: Drops well back to last, which isn't the racing pattern, but actually makes good ground through the field to finish 10th, not beaten all that far and looked to be racing on the side and on his wrong leg most of the way. Keep following this one. DAILY DOUBLE: Races 8,10: 1,5,10 / 1,6,7,10,12,15,18 x $1 = $21. 1st 5-SPURTONIC W=$3.10 / 1st 7-FAWKNER W=$9.90 Daily Double = $39.00 Usually get a good dividend in doubles into the feature races with wide open fields so we can go wide. The first leg you can probably just narrow it down to the (10) who has been racing really well, and the in form Sydney siders the (1) and the (5) who probably share the speed here with not much pace on. Load up the Caulfield Cup with some of the favourites – the (7),(12) and (15), but also throw in a few silly roughies in a race where we might get an upset – the (1), (6), (10) and (18). RESULTS: Probably went a bit wider than we needed to and not much value with favourite winning the first leg, but a collect is a collect. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 6-SHE CAN SKATE at around $4.60 6th W=$3.70 This one has actually been racing pretty well, winning her last 3 starts and some of those have been pretty tough efforts. Yet to even miss the place in her career. But first up into this big field, drawn inside, on pacer and there is a stake of speed in this with the likes of the (2), the (15) and especially the (16) and suspect the on pacers may knock each other out and set it up for one running on. She is good, but happy to take her on today. RESULTS: Plenty of pressure up front here and she is one of the first beaten. Good lay at short odds in a big field with lots of chances. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA Race 5: 4,10 / 4,6,7,10,14 / 3,4,6,7,10,14,15 x $5 = 12.5% X / X / X One of the more open races of the day is Race 5, so let’s try and snare a share of decent trifecta dividend. The speed should be on here, so suspect you will want to be on the runners on like the (4) and the (10) – even though she is a bit of a non-winner. Include the Lay of the Day the (6) for 2nd as she won’t be far off them, but might just get softened up in front, and plenty of value chances with the likes of the (7) and the (14). Suspect we will get a 4 digit trifecta dividend here with something at odds lobbing in the placings. RESULTS: Wow, OK, that was a hard race - didn't even manage a place getter from the top 7 selections ! Ouch. SPENT: $100 RETURN: $71 NET: $-29 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 7-SUAVITO, 4-TANGO’S DAUGHTER, 3-SCARLET BILLOWS Race 2: 6-HUCKLEBUCK, 3-I AM TITANIUM, 10-MADE OF ICE Race 3: 7-FANTOME GRIS, 4-STAR FASHION, 2-ARABIAN GOLD Race 4: 11-BRING SOMETHING, 9-FAMECHON, 4-SAN DIEGO Race 5: 4-AVOID LIGHTNING, 10-ANISE, 14-LITTLE FAVOURS Race 6: 5-SHEER TALENT, 7-CONSERVATORIUM, 1-BOBAN Race 7: 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM, 11-CHIARAMONTE, 7-PAGO ROCK Race 8: 10-GARUD, 5-SPURTONIC, 1-HONORIUS Race 9: 11-KOONOOMOO, 6-BENNETTA, 14-PERON Race 10: 15-SILENT ACHIEVER, 10-MORIARTY, 12-HAWKSPUR |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-SUAVITO 1st W=$4.90 4-TANGO’S DAUGHTER 3-SCARLET BILLOWS |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-HUCKLEBUCK 1st W=$2.80 3-I AM TITANIUM 10-MADE OF ICE |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-FANTOME GRIS 4-STAR FASHION 2-ARABIAN GOLD 1st W=$3.20 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-BRING SOMETHING 9-FAMECHON 4-SAN DIEGO 2nd W=$4.20 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-AVOID LIGHTNING 10-ANISE 14-LITTLE FAVOURS |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SHEER TALENT 7-CONSERVATORIUM 1-BOBAN 1st W=$3.40 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM 1st W=$6.30 11-CHIARAMONTE 7-PAGO ROCK |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-GARUD 3rd W=$8.40 5-SPURTONIC 1st W=$3.10 1-HONORIUS |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-KOONOOMOO 2nd W=$30.10, P=$6.40 *** Best Roughie of Day *** 6-BENNETTA 14-PERON |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-SILENT ACHIEVER 10-MORIARTY 12-HAWKSPUR |
| RACE 10: CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 15-SILENT ACHIEVER 10-MORIARTY 12-HAWKSPUR |
| Others: 7,6,2,18,1 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 5-GLENCADAM GOLD, 13-JULIENAS (wide), 14-MR O'CEIRIN (wider), 17-TUSCAN FIRE Handy: 1-MANIGHAR, 3-ETHIOPIA, 4-WALDPARK, 7-FAWKNER, 15-SILENT ACHIEVER, 20-SNEAK A PEEK (emerg), 22-OASIS BLOOM (emerg) Back: 2-DANDINO, 6-MR MOET, 8-JET AWAY, 9-KELINNI, 11-MY QUEST FOR PEACE, 12-HAWKSPUR, 16-ROYAL DESCENT, 18-DEAR DEMI, 19-FORGOTTEN VOICE (emerg) Chances: 2-DANDINO is an international visitor and normally we tend to avoid them as even though they are often around the finish, the ones that have actually won in the last 20 years or so have been no namers with no hype about them – think ALL TOO GOOD and TAUFAN’S MELODY – unless they have been out here before and proven themselves like DUNADEN. This one has a huge amount of hype about him and there is a long history of over hyped imports who have been disappointing in the Cups. We just prefer not to bet on unknowns, so tend to stay away till they have had a run down here and we can line them up. Having said that, this one is very well travelled so should be used to it, and has drawn wide, which is probably a good thing so he can drop out the back in clear running and make a clear long run at them. Jockey Craig Williams is going for an unprecedented 3 cups in a row, and won this race last year on an international from barrier 19 – also with largely yellow colours – so could be a case of déjà vu all over again here. Think he will get extremely well backed on the day and we just can’t fall into these types. Normally we write them off straight away and have saved plenty over the years doing so. The big plus for this one though, and the only reason why we are putting it in, is that he is a last start winner – and this field is chocka block full of runners with no form. Being in winning form coming into these major races is actually really important and he is likely to be the only last start winner in this race. Won’t be carrying ours but keep safe on that point alone. Chance. 2nd W=$10.10 7-FAWKNER comes from pretty much the best staying stable in the land and they had a stack of options as to which ones they would run in this race so think you have to respect that they have chosen to only run this one. Stable was spot on with spreading their runners over various races in Melbourne and Sydney on Turnbull Stakes day. Really good win strike rate. On trial at this distance, but quality milers have won this race before – though not for a long time. Question might be if this race is much more of a staying contest these days with so many imports or ex-imports in the race. Another who is fitter for the 3 runs in, seems to be running into form and the Turnbull Stakes is so often the right form race for this. He did loom up like the winner last start at Flemington and fought on OK. Question mark will be if he can run the strong 2400M if this turns into a true staying test? Firm track should pose no problems and he shouldn’t settle too far back from middle barrier. He does seem to be largely a Flemington horse though – if this race was run at Flemington you would put him on top no worries. Have to respect Turnbull Stakes form going into this and suspect he is going a lot better than most of these. Chance. 1st W=$9.90 10-MORIARTY has been going along OK in Sydney and maintains a pretty good winning strike rate. At the very least he has at least won a race this preparation, which is the next best thing to being a last start winner going into this – in tough, competitive features think it is really important to have recent winning form. Not beaten that far in the Metropolitan when took a while to get into clear running and just slowly ground away towards the line out wide. Firm track a big plus for this one. Has had a far bit of racing last few preparations and he has generally held his form pretty well. He is drawn very wide, but is a drop back and run on horse, so will at least get clear running – will depend if they can run on OK at the end of the day here. Despite his odds we think he is right in this – fitter for the 3 runs in, they have all been good, actually has won a race on the way through, had a solid 2400M hit out and probably should have finished closer last start. Good chance at odds and we want to have something on this one. Go well. 12-HAWKSPUR is one of the favourites going into this race and fair enough too, it is normally the 4YO in the rise with classic staying form that wins this race – and is also normally the one that gets extremely well backed in this race. It does become a little one dimensional, traditionally the horse best backed every year is the 4YO with classic staying form who finished closest up in the Turnbull. Strong finishing type, who has had the 4 runs in – more than many of his rivals and think that is a big plus. No luck at all in the Turnbull when was sneaking along the rails, dodging and weaving and going for runs and struggling to get into clear running room. Has drawn out here and will drop well back, but getting a clear run into the race down the outside is a big plus for this one. Drops 2kgs from the Turnbull Stakes as well. Interesting to note he did race handy in a few of his wins over the QLD winter – and jockey Cassidy does have a bit of a nasty habit of going forward in these feature races. Listen out for riding tactics, would suspect they drop him back from this barrier? The best lead up race for this is the Turnbull Stakes, he was the unluckiest runner, and he gets the biggest weight drop so he just goes in by default. Suspect he gets backed though so it more comes down to an issue of what represents value in a big even field. Strong chance. 15-SILENT ACHIEVER is a lightly raced staying mare with classic 3YO form heading into this so ticks a lot of boxes. Had the traditional 3 runs in and always so hard to line these types up till they get into this race – cause the lead up runs are just warm ups for the feature. Held up for the entire – and we mean entire length of the straight 1st up in the Memsie – we were just surprised they didn’t try and block her coming back into the mounting yard after the race as well. Worked home quite well in the leader dominated Underwood, and not far off them working home late in a Turnbull full of good runs. Even though she does have solid good track form you just get the impression she probably does prefer a bit of give in the ground. Drawn a perfect barrier – and she can position handy and make the most of it too – which is a very, very big tick in this race. Pretty good 2400M record too. Not sure many horses have completed the Crystal Mile – Caulfield Cup double in following years. Think her racing pattern and barrier puts her right in this race, whilst the others are striking trouble out the back of the field. Strong chance. Place: 1-MANIGHAR has been mixing his form his last couple of campaigns and it is getting difficult to work out where he is at. Came out here as an international guest in 2010 and 2011 and loomed and looked the winner in both Caulfield Cups, before one batting and just grinding to the line for 4ths to 6ths. Transferred to a local stable he magically transformed from being a one paced stayer to being a zingy WFA competitor during the Autumn of 2012. Started Spring 2012 full of promise again and looked like he was going to be a major competitor last spring before injury struck. Hasn’t quite been the same horse since – his Autumn campaign this year was OK in that he was thereabouts in a few good races, and he has been doing the same this campaign as well. Not beaten that far 1st up in the Makybe Diva, and then was lucky enough to land in the first half of the field in the Underwood, which was a dawdle and nothing changed position. Guess he wasn’t beaten that far there and the form from that race has held up well. Interesting to note he was a $2 beaten favourite in the Underwood in 2012 – and started closer to $100 in the same race this year. Didn’t do much in the Turnbull and dropped out badly but was found to have a snotty nose. Can often pay to ignore those badly drop out runs as they can reflect once off issues that are quickly resolved. Has solid 2400M form, definitely runs the trip, some of his best races have been here, he wasn’t that far away in this race in 2010 and 2011, hasn’t drawn too badly and he can get a great sit just off the speed from this barrier. Bit hard to tell exactly how he is going, but he has WFA form not beaten far in the right races, he should be fitter for the 3 runs in and there is a distinct lack of form in this race. Maybe just a question of if he can be competitive in a race like this as top weight – but he did carry 56.5 the year he ran 4th on a good track, so the firm track shouldn’t be an issue either. In a race with not much form think he is way over the odds and a solid rough chance. Definitely one to put in if you are looking for a value trifecta. Just seems way over the odds to us at $51 or better for a horse that has had 2 starts in this race and finished in the first six both times. Good rough chance. 5-GLENCADAM GOLD is a Waterhouse stayer who has a good win strike rate and actually went around favourite in this race last year, coming off a string of impressive lead all the way wins in Sydney. Flopped here last year, but backed up in the Melbourne Cup and went OK to finish 6th after leading again. Fitter for the 3 runs in this time, and bought down to Melbourne earlier this year, led and dropped out very quickly in the Turnbull, and was well beaten there behind quite a few who are going around again here. Is probably better that that. Did show glimpses of form 2 starts back. No issues with the dry track. Guess he did come into this race last year with exceptional form – and failed – but he went crazy in the lead in this race last year which he why he dropped out. Form is only so-so this year though. Think he is going better than the Turnbull run suggests, he has drawn inside, likely to go to the lead again and just be wary if this track gets quite firm and favours on pacers. Think he is a rough chance at odds today – tending towards place though. Place. 6-MR MOET is a well credentialed WA galloper who hasn’t quite found his niche over here. WA form is outstanding including a Group 1 Railway Stakes win 1st up and a Perth Cup placing. Raced though the major Melbourne Autumn races and wasn’t that far away. Pretty similar form this time in as well, going through the traditional WFA lead up races and not beaten too far. Made good ground late in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley when he got too far back on a track that was favouring on pacers under a big weight. Fitter for the 3 runs in, back to handicap conditions and definitely no trouble with a firm track for this one. Note that gun staying jockey gets the ride. Worth noting he has placed 2 out of 3 runs here at Caulfield. Actually the run from last start was really quite good, he was really winding up late, and the bigger track should suit. Looks like he is starting to run into form, maybe main question is that he often drops well back in the run and might need luck getting through a big field. Not hopeless though and another who has a rough chance at odds. Rough. 13-JULIENAS has been grinding away OK up in Sydney. Form this time in has been excellent and is a hard fit, rolling on speed 2400M horse. Bit hard to know what they do here seeing the other leader is the stablemate the (5) and obviously they wouldn’t want to knock each other out of the race. Firm track no issues. Is drawn wide and will have to work to go forward early – and likely to be caught very wide out of the straight from this barrier – but a few have stuck on well on pace doing that in the last couple of years and at least you miss all the trouble out the back of the field. Has winning form this time in, has consistently placed this time in, there of lots with no form in this race so think he is probably going to be thereabouts when they turn into the home straight. Might just not have the class to win, especially with barrier, but won’t be far off. Rough place chance. 18-DEAR DEMI is a bit of an iron mare and can stand up to a lot of hard racing. VRC Oaks winner who kept going through the Sydney Autumn and QLD Winter and consistently being in the finish in good races. Been through the traditional lead ups here, really nice run flashing home late 1st up in the Let’s Elope, and really liked the run in the Underwood when she stuck on nicely against the best two horses in the country. Followed PDL through on the rails in the Turnbull and looked like she was going to run into the finish – but died on her run. Likely to drop well back from outside barrier here and think her key chance was to draw a barrier in this. Did quite like the way she was going this spring – her lead up form is better than many of these, gets in with a light weight here and wouldn’t write her off. Probably goes in the selections if she draws a barrier. Rough chance, and does look over the odds, but probably more toward place just because of the draw, but definitely put her in your exotics. Rough. 3rd W=$25.30 Sacking: 3-ETHIOPIA has been promising to feature in the majors for a few years now, and hopefully will still get there one day soon. Especially seeing he has the hopes of an entire African country riding with him – they are huge Caulfield Cup fans over there. Hard to believe he has still only had 11 career starts. Kicked off his career with a bang, notching up his first career win in a ATC Derby as a 3YO at only his 4th start. Stamped as one destined for greatness on that basis. Slowly warmed into last spring when he astounded with his very solid Cox Plate 4th ridden on pace in a race that really should not have suited him. Sustained an injury during the Melbourne Cup last year and finished trailed off. This spring kicked off with a pretty good 1st up run in the Makybe Diva, and then dropped out the back in the Underwood in a race where nothing made even the slightest inch of ground and doubt the slow track suited him there either. Should handle the firm track OK. Does tend to race off very slight preparations and coming into this with only the 2 runs in. Suspect he might settle handy even with the outside barrier. He is capable of figuring here, just not sure where he is up to and want to see him go around once again to line up how he is going. Not today. 4-WALDPARK is an import come local that a few are pushing for at odds. Lightly raced 6YO with a good win and place strike rate. Kicked off his Australian new life in the two traditional WFA cups warm up events, the Makybe Diva and the Underwood. Jumped on speed in the Makybe Diva and didn’t have that much galloping room near the inside but was losing ground on the line. Then dropped back in the Underwood and nothing made ground regardless. Forced to go to the Benalla Cup and carry a whopping 62kgs as he struggled to get into some suitable city races. Chased a tear away leader hard there and had trouble getting into clear running so guess the run was OK – just a bit concerned that was well held by PRECEDENCE whose form can be a bit questionable at times. Fitter for the 3 runs in, like them to have 3 runs at least going into this race, and drawn a very nice barrier here. Should lob right on the speed again, but doubt a 5th in a Benalla Cup is the right lead up form for this race – even if this race does seem lacking in form this year. No 8-JET AWAY is another import come local who quickly adjusted to life Down Under with two very nice wins during the Melbourne Autumn in weaker grade, but just showed he was full of potential. Had a few setbacks this spring so has been behind the plan trying to catch up. Not ideal going into the Turnbull over 2000M first up, but he was one of the best runs of the race, looming like the winner half way down the straight, before he died on his run and would have finished closer still if he was not badly hampered just before the line. Firm track looks like it will cause no problems. Jockey is riding like a man possessed at the moment – unfortunately also riding like a man getting suspended a lot, but he is riding in great form. Drawn out a little and likely to drop well back and might need luck getting through the field. Was really impressed with the 1st up run, and would be a great training feat to win a Caulfield Cup 2nd up – normally winners have had 3 or 4 runs into this race. Looks a bit under the odds at around $10. Just think dropping back, 2nd up coming off a few setbacks into a top level race, might want to go around him today, but he is another who wouldn’t surprise if he did something regardless. Risking. 4th W=$8.40 9-KELINNI had fantastic form last spring when he won the 2500M race on Derby Day that changes its name every other year before going onto run a very solid 4th in the Melbourne Cup. Took a while to get back to best during the Sydney autumn and was a beaten short priced favourite in the Sydney Cup. Been struggling for form this time in, fair enough the 1st two runs were in unsuitable races, but sent out well supported last start and very disappointing – he is much better than that though. Firm track no issue. Barrier 1 might be though – do they ride him more forward here today? Definitely don’t want to drop back from barrier 1 in a Caulfield Cup, that’s just asking for trouble. Fitter for the 3 runs in and out to a more suitable distance but hard to get enthused about his current form and deserves to be at long odds in this. No 11-MY QUEST FOR PEACE is coming into this with form of 0-0-0-0 which traditionally isn’t a great form line going into this race. Stable seem to think they have him going OK though. Yet another import come local, he raced really well in this race last year at his first Australian start , then was probably a little disappointing in the Melbourne Cup. Does seem rather one paced rather like his stable mate the (1) used to be. Only had the two runs in over unsuitable shorter trips and totally impossible to get a gauge on how he is going. Drawn inside and lobbed on speed in this race last year, but has been dropping well back in is other runs. Impossible to work out how he is going, and hasn’t had that many starts over suitable trips in Australia so is a bit of a wild card. Maybe watch the market for moves, he does have a nice barrier and the winner in this race can often cut the corner on the turn. Just hard to get enthused about what we have seen so far. No 14-MR O'CEIRIN has finally got a crack at this race. Very consistent rolling on speed stayer. Had a brief freshen up before spring, and raced well at Caulfield in the Heatherlie, before jockey stole the race here in the Naturalism on a dawdling speed and was ever so quietly chuffed about it. Thereabouts in the Turnbull Stakes without really getting into the finish. Has really solid 2000M form, but not quite as good when he gets out to the 2400M. Best form is at Caulfield, hence the stable keep trying to get him into the Cup. Issues here are the very wide barrier, and he is going to get caught very wide here early with quite a few that can go forward and he is one you definitely want to race on the speed. The main issue though is going to be the very firm track – he definitely prefers some give in the ground and think a firm track here brings him undone. Risking. 16-ROYAL DESCENT is a 4YO mare with classic staying form and they were all the rage in this race in the 1980s and 1990s, though they had a bit of a quiet patch till SOUTHERN SPEED won a few years back. Has been building up nicely this campaign running home well to place, and then copped quite a few bumps in the rough house Turnbull Stakes free for all. Still only missed the place twice in her career. Still a little unconvinced about the Turnbull run, and she didn’t seem to be going all that well when she struck trouble. That was her first run away from Sydney way of going too. Got a slight concern here that she might drop back and get cluttered up for room from an inside barrier. Out of the favoured runners if there was one we might think about leaving out would probably be her, Turnbull run was inconclusive for us and not sure she represents value at the odds on offer. Risking. 17-TUSCAN FIRE is one of our favourite horses but he really hasn’t been given much of a chance to win a suitable race this spring. Surprised with 1st win up at 100-1 at Flem, worked home well 2nd up at MV, then Makybe Diva run at WFA wasn’t that bad when you can see him bobbing along making a move along the rails half way down the straight. Really surprised they rode him back in the dawdle Naturalism – could have easily won that race if he was ridden forward, and then went wide and early on the home turn in the Turnbull when stuck on OK. Finally gets back to a handicap here after racing in many unsuitable races. Unbeaten at the 2400M ! and firm track is no issue. Best ridden rolling on the speed and hasn’t been given a chance to do that at all this spring. From barrier 2 today they almost certainly go forward. Might stick on OK too if the track is hard and firm and favouring on pacers. His form is much, much better than it looks – but hard to see him figuring here, especially with quite a few other on pacers in this race. No 19-FORGOTTEN VOICE (emerg) is the first emergency and these really need luck to get into these feature races. You don’t give up a spot in the Cups unless you are really too crook to run. 9YO international visitor and same does as for all international visitors, we don’t back them unless we have seen them run down here, or they have been down here before and proven themselves. Nice barrier., not sure where he settles in the run. Big plus for being a last start winner too. Prefer to see though. No 20-SNEAK A PEEK (emerg) is the second emergency and would need a sudden flood to cut off Caulfield from the rest of the state resulting in a avalanche of late scratchings to make the field. Caulfield stable are busy building dams as we speak… Import come local whose 3 runs up in Sydney have all been OK settling on speed and working home well. His form last spring was similar, he looked like he was slowly, slowly building to something – but then didn’t do much in this race. Drawn outside, would have to settle handy and wide. Is going OK and might pick up something during the spring, but not this. No 21-IBICENCO (emerg) scratched 22-OASIS BLOOM (emerg) as fourth emergency would be a miracle to even make the field, yet alone go out and win. We quite like this giant mare and have some time for her, she has been slowly building her form this time in – didn’t appreciate racing tight inside one at MV and then great to see her get out to the 2400M last time and stick on really well here in the Herbert Power. She is another who can pick up a good race this spring – but not this race from an outsider barrier. No Summary: This does appear to be a very substandard field this year. There just isn’t that much form – real form going into this race so we have a suspicion we are going to get an upset result this year. There are close to no horses coming into this with winning form, and we are left guessing as to which ones are going to improve out of a swag of them that have had the three traditional leads up through the various races – but very few of these have genuinely got into a finish this time in which is a real concern. Caulfield Cups are well known as tough, hustle bustle affairs, with lots of hard luck stories and lots of interference out the back of the field as they try to make runs around the turn. There are basically two options here, you draw a barrier, settle handy and dash through in the straight (or cut the corner) along the rails on the turn, or go wide around them around the bend in clear running. Those left out the back in the middle coming to the turn invariably strike trouble and come home too late. Caulfield Cup notes : - we always push for winning form going into the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. And this year it is largely non-existent, with only the two international runners being last start winners. To win a feature you really need to be at the peak of your form, and winning , and it is a bit of a worry how very few of this field have even managed to genuinely compete in a finish this time in, yet alone win one. Between 1998 and 2008, 8 of the winners of this race were last start winners and there normally aren’t more than a few every year. Winning form is good form. And the rest were last start place getters. At least DESCARADO had won in the preparation going into this race. - often the winner of this race will come through the Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes, so look for those who put in good runs there and are dropping in weight into this. There are no runners coming off the Caulfield Stakes this year, which is unusual, though why they chose not to run FORETELLER in this race astounds us – think he would have won. The Turnbull was a total mess, most of this field came through that race and with so many hard luck stories it is hard to line them up, but look at the weights, the best weight drops are for the (17) and the (12), and it was the (12) who was the unluckiest runner in the race and also closest to the finish. Hard to tell though with most of these all having 3 runs in and primed to go today. - position in running is important, you really want to draw a barrier and peel out and run into the race on the home turn, not being held up for runs back in the field. You can already just about list out those runners that are going to run on too late in “good Melbourne Cup trials”. Unfortunately no bookmaker pays out on that. - normally the horses to follow into this race are lightly raced 4YO or 5YO, on the rise, hitting peak form this campaign, getting in with no weight off good WFA runs. These are normally very well backed too – it becomes a bit one dimensional and certain the (12) will be very well backed this year. Pace here should be genuine and we should get a solid 2400M race here with quite a few possible leaders, the 5-GLENCADAM GOLD, 13-JULIENAS (wide), 14-MR O'CEIRIN (wider), 17-TUSCAN FIRE. Behind these probably 1-MANIGHAR, 4-WALDPARK, 7-FAWKNER, 15-SILENT ACHIEVER all getting gun runs and it is this group that you want to watch out for. We are going to go for the 15-SILENT ACHIEVER in this. Hasn’t quite got into the finish as we would have liked this time in, but you can make a case for each run and was finishing on really well in the Turnbull. Has solid 2400M form and above all just love the barrier, if Boss can get her sitting just off the speed here she is going to get a dream run into this. Bit concerned that everyone is far too focussed on trying to sort out of very messy Turnbull Stakes, with a bunched finish, so want to make a genuine push for one at odds the 10-MORIARTY as the main danger – consistent when right, at least he has winning form this time in, 2400M fit and should have finished a lot closer last start. Really looks a genuine danger in this at long odds , but just needs them to be running on OK. The 12-HAWKSPUR the other obvious pick and ticks a lot of the boxes, just a matter of the tricky barrier and whether he represents value on race day when the inevitable plunge comes. Wouldn’t write off 7-FAKWNER, last start Turnbull Stakes placegetter into this and definite winning chance, and 6-MR MOET probably the other roughie worth considering. Probably box these up in a quinella and have some bets on the top two picks, quite liking the odds about our roughie 10-MORIARTY here. One to risk: 16-ROYAL DESCENT 5th W=$7.00 Roughie: 10-MORIARTY, 6-MR MOET The Key: Winning form? Is there any winning form? Anywhere ? RESULTS: Turnbull Stakes form holds up - last start place getter, actually the odds about the 7-FAKWNER seem quite generous in hindsight. Great placement by the stable who have been making all the right choices the last couple of weeks. Flashing home late 2-DANDINO, the favourite 12-HAWKSPUR worked home OK but did start under the odds, and quite liked the way the 10-MORIARTY worked home from last through the field as he did still seem to be racing on his wrong leg. But the run we really liked was the 8-JET AWAY, 2nd up from a spell, sent for home before the turn and fought on really well. You would think with another run or two in would have gone very close to winning - keep following him. Comfortably cover the $1800 trifecta in the win and place chances. |
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