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| CAULFIELD : CAUFLIELD CUP - 18th Oct 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): A few showers and a bit of rain around mid week, but it barely seems to have affected the track at all which has remained as a GOOD(3) all week. Weather fining up for the weekend too. Rail was TRUE last Saturday and Wednesday, today the rail goes out 6M. It was definitely an advantage to be on speed on Caulfield Guineas day, and midweek most of the on pacers won, else horses won doing sneaky runs along the rails. Normally come Caulfield Cup day the track starts to wear a bit and we should get even racing, but they may be coming off the rails a bit in the straight. Just keep an eye out if the weather is sunny if the track does play towards on pacers again though. Very different betting approach than last week. Last week there were plenty of great value $10 plus chances who could get in the finish, and big multiples. This week suspect most of the favoured runners are going to fight these races out. So back straight out to win, and save on one or two other runners. Plenty to bet on again, so going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio and hope to snare a winner on a feature day. RESULTS: Track races pretty evenly and can they win running on. Most winners come down the middle of the track and they tend to come off the rails in the straight. Tips struggle, but we still manage to scrounge back most of the Betting Portfolio. BEST BET: Race 7: 9-SIGNOFF $15 WIN 3rd W=$4.30 QUINELLA: Race 7: 9-SIGNOFF, 8-COMMANDING TIME x $5 3rd 9-SIGNOFF W=$4.30 The (9) here had big expectations going into the spring. He has taken a while to get going, but he fought on really well here last week and think he is ready now to win. Drop back in distance slightly against, but they probably want to go forward and lead here. Back him straight out to win at around $4, and really there isn’t much form in the rest of this field, save a few spruiks on imported horses. Save with a quinella on the (8) who we are a big fan of, and have been following him all spring and he just sits on speed and gives you a great run for your money. Has a great Caulfield record too. Suspect these two will fight out the finish. RESULTS: Two fresh imports fight the race out. This one seems to be so dour this time in, he grinds away, was really hoping they would ride him more forward back in distance and actually try to win the race! BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 2-MISS STEELE $7.50 EW X Actually really keen on this one coming into the last race. She is a good, strong finishing sprinting mare proven at a higher level and 1st up run here was excellent. Fitter for that run, and drawn out a little is good to get a clear run at them, and they should be winning running on later in the day. Best of all there is an absolute stack of speed in this race so they should tear along and set it up for her. Backing her here and going for some more value in a trifecta in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet. Get out in the last at around $9.50 with Oliver on board. RESULTS: Gets too far back in the run, runs on OK but still a bit disappointing. BEST WIN: Race 4: 2-MERION $7 WIN X BEST WIN: Race 4: 12-FONTEIN RUBY $3 WIN 1st W=$10.70 = $32.10 The (2) was the best run out of the Caulfield Guineas. He had missed a run leading into the race because they didn’t want to run him on a firm track, he went widest and earliest from the back of the field and was holding his spot well to the line. Ridden more forward here he should be right in this. Back him straight out at around $6 and save on the main danger the tough on pace mare the (12) at around $9. RESULTS: The top pick leads, and packs it in very quickly, so obviously something not right. The saver bet, however, wow. Clearly headed she fights back on speed with a super tough win and saves us nicely. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 19-BRAMBLES $7 WIN 4th W=$10.20 QUINELLA: Race 9: 19-BRAMBLES, 15-LUCIA VALENTINA x $2 4th 19-BRAMBLES W=$10.20. 3rd 15-LUCIA VALENTINA W=$4.40 QUINELLA: Race 9: 19-BRAMBLES, 9-JUNOOB x $2 QUINELLA: Race 9: 19-BRAMBLES, 14-LIDARI x $2 QUINELLA: Race 9: 19-BRAMBLES, 20-ARALDO x $2 Let’s have a bet on our top pick in the Caulfield Cup. Betting market in this race has been a mess, with lots of scratchings and many of the emergency runners getting in. So ignore the $21 in the papers, now he is in the field, he is likely to start $8 or shorter and suspect may even start second favourite here. They haven’t had emergencies in this race until a few years back, so pretty sure he is aiming to be the first number 19 to win a Caulfield Cup. He has been racing really well this spring, has classic 3YO staying form, fought on well last start, and should get the run of the race here on speed from the barrier so should be in the finish. Back straight out and instead of each way betting, take in quinellas with the other dangers. Most important of all – make sure you take the novelty double emergency quinella with our best roughie in the race 20-ARALDO. RESULTS: Gets a perfect on pace sit and looks like he is coming again in the straight, but others hit the line better. Roughie 20-ARALDO really unlucky shuffled back to last and making weaving run through the field. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-UNDER THE LOUVRE $7.50 EW 2nd W=6.90, P=$2.20 = $16.50 QUINELLA Race 5: 9-UNDER THE LOUVRE# 5,6,8,11,13 x $5 = 100% 2nd 9-UNDER THE LOUVRE 2nd W=$6.90 / 5-LUCKY HUSSLER 1st W=$10.30. Quin = $33.80 This one has been flying this spring and been mixing up his runs between late flying bursts over sprint trips and solid on pace 1400M runs. Goes into a harder race here, but most of these are 1st or 2nd up or are mixing their form so just think he is going better than them,. Nice barrier, they should be able to sit on speed here and looks a nice each way bet at around $10. Probably better on the day too on the tote as some of the interstate runners will get backed and this guy will probably get forgotten. Back each way and take some quinellas which should pay OK in an even field. RESULTS: Gets well back but runs on well and very nice $33 quinella in an even field. BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 7-PETROLOGY $5 EW X This one’s form is much better than it looks. Solid run 1st up over 1200M and then really not suited dropping back to 1000M 2nd up. Out to the Flem 1400 last run, and that was a bit of a funny race – those who dropped back in the field had no chance, and several of them have run well since, ROYAL STANDING and WANDJINA. This fella did the same, he dropped out the back, the front half got away from them, but he worked home really, really well under a hold and without much room and could have finished much closer when well beaten. Would want to settle a bit closer here, but has placed twice at Caulfield and worth an each way bet at around $12. Did open $21, shame we missed that, but might drift back towards there come race time. RESULTS: Looms up but not really good enough BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 20-ARALDO $2.50 EW 5th W=$37.40 Also throw a little something on our best roughie in the Caulfield Cup who looks to be running into form and should be finishing on hard down the middle of the track if tempo is fast enough. RESULTS: Great run by the roughie here, got shuffled back to last, had to weave his way through the field, still racing eratically and closing on the line. Think he should have run a place. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 2-AZKADELLIA at around $2.60 2nd W=$2.80 Not sure what it is about the first race on the program, but so often there is a short priced favourite that is getting backed on spruik rather than form. This one has winning form and obviously a lot of potential, and may win, but did only beat field of 4 last start, and half the field here are coming off similar wins and can suddenly improve. No fun backing short priced favourites at the start of the day and the good thing is if the Lay of the Day gets up in the first it barely gets noticed anyway! RESULTS: Super lucky to get out here - cause this one was super unlucky. Dropped back to last, had to weave through field and flying on the line to just miss. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 10: 2-MISS STEELE / 3,5,6,11,12,13,14 / 3,5,6,11,12,13,14 x $5 = 11.90% X / 1st 11-THE MESSINA NYMPH W=$5.90 / 3rd 6-SINO EAGLE W=$11.60 There is not likely to be that many big dividends during the day, but good chance of a big trifecta in the last race. Really like our top pick here the (2) so anchor her to win and go wide as possible in the placings as something is almost certain to pop up at long odds. The 6-SINO EAGLE with good Caulfield form in particular looks over the odds. We should be able to land a $500 to $1000 trifecta here for about ten percent if we are on the money, but you would want the short priced favourite the (3) to bomb out here. Bit of fun regardless. RESULTS: The short priced favourites the 3-ANATINA W=$2.10 misses the place, the value runner 6-SINO EAGLE gets into the finish, just out top pick lets us down badly. SPENT: $100 RETURN: $82.40 NET: $-17.60 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 10-SHOW US YOUR TATTS, 4-SEA SPRAY, 7-I’M A FLYING STAR Race 2: 7-PETROLOGY, 6-CARELESS, 2-STRATUM STAR Race 3: 3-MAASTRICHT, 10-HIPSTER GIRL, 6-SAVAGE COUP Race 4: 2-MERION, 12-FONTEIN RUBY, 7-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN Race 5: 9-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 8-GENERALIFE, 6-LEEBAZ Race 6: 7-POLITENESS, 4-CATKINS, 2-MAY’S DREAM Race 7: 9-SIGNOFF, 8-COMMANDING TIME, 7-VILANOVA Race 8: 8-I’M ALL THE TALK, 3-UNPRETENTIOUS, 2-DRIEFONTEIN Race 9: 19-BRAMBLES, 15-LUCIA VALENTINA, 9-JUNOOB Race 10: 2-MISS STEELE, 6-SINO EAGLE 14-I LOVE IT |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SHOW US YOUR TATTS SCR 4-SEA SPRAY 1st W=$3.90 7-I’M A FLYING STAR |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-PETROLOGY 6-CARELESS 3rd W=$5.30 2-STRATUM STAR 1st W=$6.90 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MAASTRICHT 2nd W=$1.80 10-HIPSTER GIRL 6-SAVAGE COUP |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MERION 12-FONTEIN RUBY 1st W=$10.70 7-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-UNDER THE LOUVRE 2nd W=$6.90 8-GENERALIFE 3rd W=$6.60 6-LEEBAZ |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-POLITENESS 4-CATKINS 3rd W=$3.60 2-MAY’S DREAM |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-SIGNOFF 3rd W=$4.30 8-COMMANDING TIME 7-VILANOVA |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-I’M ALL THE TALK 3-UNPRETENTIOUS 2-DRIEFONTEIN |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 19-BRAMBLES 15-LUCIA VALENTINA 3rd W=$4.40 9-JUNOOB |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MISS STEELE 6-SINO EAGLE 2nd W=$11.60 14-I LOVE IT SCR |
| RACE 9: CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 19-BRAMBLES 15-LUCIA VALENTINA 3rd W=$4.40 9-JUNOOB |
| Others: 14, 20, 12 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 5-BANDE, 7-SEISMOS Handy: 3-GREEN MOON, 9-JUNOOB, 11-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 14-LIDARI, 16-RISING ROMANCE, 17-BIG MEMORY (wide), 19-BRAMBLES, 22-RENEW (emerg) Back: 1-ADMIRE RAKTI, 4-SEA MOON, 6-THE OFFER, 8-HAWKSPUR, 10-MORIARTY, 12-DEAR DEMI, 13-STIPULATE, 20-ARALDO, 21-UNCHAIN MY HEART (emerg) Chances: 9-JUNOOB is a tough on pace stayer in winning form and plenty to like about him going into a race like this. Firm track is a big plus, and has a very impressive 2400M record – 6 starts, 3 wins, 2 placings. Really since he came to Australia he has held his form really well, and that is rare for these international runners – 17 Australian starts for 6 wins and 5 placings is pretty good going. Drawn out a little here and will have to try and work across and get a position just off the leaders here, but being out wide isn’t too bad in a Caulfield Cup – means you can get going around the turn and miss all the interference and waiting for runs back in the field. Drops 2.5 kgs from tough Metropolitan win, and only 2 horses in the last 20 years have come through that race and won this race – but they were both the winners of that race. Think there is plenty to like about him here, 4 runs in, solid 2400M form, in winning form coming into this race, sitting on speed, getting a clear run at them – and he is a winner – not a run on late to finish 4th horse. Only query – overseas jockey on board? Right in the finish here. Strong chance. 12-DEAR DEMI is as tough and gutsy as they come and has run in pretty much everything for the last 2 years. You put on a feature race – and she will turn up. Placed 3 from 5 this track. Stuck to the rails and cut the corner and pretty sure she hit the lead in this race about 150M out last year at her 4th run in. Her form this time in is this year is probably better too – really like her first few runs in when she was looming into the race and no surprise to see her upset the short priced favourite at Moonee Valley. Bit of a concern that the form out of that race has ended up pretty poor though. Just an even effort in the Caulfield Stakes, but that was WFA so she drops 2.5kgs into this race. Think she is a factor here, she is tough as, she went close to winning this race last year and her form this year is actually better. Rough chance.SCR 14-LIDARI has been a bit of a surprise packet this spring as he has consistently gone up through the grades and been in the finish. Did have him pegged as just a miler a month or so ago, but looks to be right in this race today. Solid dry track form and the best thing about him here is that he has drawn well and will race on speed and make his own luck. Last spring and autumn preparations he was largely kept to just being a miler. First Australian preparation he got beaten twice over 2000M when an even money favourite which has got to hurt. Has won over further overseas though. He has been in the finish of every start so far this spring – but has found one better. Drops 2kgs from Turnbull into this race and he stuck on really well there – and meets the (15) better on weights for a narrow defeat. You can make a case for him here, he is almost certainly going to be in the finish, just a matter of how tough he is over the 2400M – have a suspicion he may look the winner mid way down the straight but something might get the better of him. Great quinella bet though and right in the finish here. Chance. 15-LUCIA VALENTINA is the Caulfield Cup favourite and deservedly so. She has been in flying form so far this spring, lightly raced with an excellent win strike rate. 4YO mares with classic 3YO form were all the rage in this race in the 1980s, but then so were shoulder pads. The lightly raced 4YO mares haven’t really been much of a factor in this race for the last ten years, but also don’t think we have had many come into this race that are in flying form , and that might be the difference here. Fitter for the 3 runs in, exploded with a mighty finishing burst 1st up that was breathtaking, just a little more one paced 2nd up, but won the Turnbull well finishing hard coming off an injury query and that is invariably the best form race for this one. Well known that she prefers some give in the ground and this track is going to come up quite firm. Drawn a nice middle barrier, she wants to get out and unleash her powerful winning burst in the straight – and she has the turn of foot and speed to win a Caulfield Cup. Definitely the one to beat, and really we haven’t had a 4YO mare with a light weight going this well into this race for a while. Strong chance. 3rd W=$4.40 19-BRAMBLES has been going along very nicely this spring and good to see him getting into this field as first emergency. Excellent dry track form and really hasn’t set a foot wrong all spring. Classic winning 3YO stayer who was given a very long let up after injury and fantastic effort to get him back to this level. Tough win with a big weight 2 starts back, and plenty to like about Turnbull Stakes run which is normally the best form race for this. He was leading till the last 50M there and fought out the finish really well. Drawn OK, he does like to lead or go forward, but he can sit on speed here in space and put himself into the race at the right time. He seems to be thriving on racing. Just really like the way he is going. Right in this. Strong chance. 4th W=$10.20 20-ARALDO is the second emergency who has got a run in this field and that is pretty much a miracle in itself – the emergencies really are here mainly as window dressing and eye candy. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, one of the many imports come Aussies. He is a solid staying type with a strong finishing burst and think he is some chance in this so glad he got into the field. Good staying form last spring and given the full year off to set him for this year. Was racing erratically and making good ground here 2 starts back, and ran on really well and really stayed to the line in the Metropolitan. Outside barrier doesn’t really bother this one, he likes to drop back and it probably suits him as he is a solid staying type that wants to make a long clear crack at them. Fitter for the 3 runs in, had the 2400M run now, should be right at peak and think he is clearly the best rough chance in this by a mile. Rough chance. Place: 5-BANDE is an exotic Irish bred, Japanese based stayer who is more lightly raced than his backpacking buddy and has a better strike rate. More importantly he has winning staying form going into this race and think that is important too. You get the impression that maybe he has been bought out for this race, and his stable mate for the Melbourne Cup? Good winning strike rate, coming off a last start win too is really important in this race. Likely leader here too, and just wonder about how easy it would be to judge the pace and speed and lead all the way in the Caulfield Cup when you have never ridden in the race or at the track before? Let alone find a good car park out the front. Whilst there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of speed in this race, often they push forward from outside barriers and the pressure goes on from a long way out. Largely an unknown, watch the betting market, probably won’t be far off in the finish. Place. SCR 8-HAWKSPUR was all the range last spring as the next big thing to come out of Sydney, but he hasn’t really lived up to the hype. Just looking at his form breakdown now he does look like he does prefer a bit of give in the ground, which he is not going to get. Was flying in Sydney last spring then came down here and had no luck in the Turnbull before running on pretty well in this race when favourite last year. Going to get pretty decent odds about him this year. Autumn form wasn’t overly impressive. Has been thereabouts this time in, but didn’t really show much in the Turnbull Stakes this year. Form going into this race last year was much better (well obviously - he was favourite). Stable wins pretty much everything these days. Don’t mind the barrier, and think he is worth putting into your trifectas as a rough place chance, especially with Oliver on board, they probably just ride him for luck here back in the field, and try and cut the corner and weave into the finish so he might run a bit better than many expect. Rough place. 10-MORIARTY is a drop back, run on stayer who needs the speed on and needs luck getting through the field. Definite top of the ground horse. We liked him as a roughie in this race last year and he was given no chance dropping out to last, but finished off really well late, and was really good at odds in the Mackinnon. Struck form during the QLD winter as soon as he got onto some dry tracks. Fitter for the 4 runs in and really he hasn’t been far away from them, save poor run 2 starts back. Drawn a nice middle barrier too. Think he is capable on his day, it is just his racing pattern brings him undone and means he is going to need luck. And in a big Caulfield Cup field you are never going to win coming from last unless you are exceptional. Place only. 11-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN has one of the more colourful names going around. Lightly raced NZ stayer with an exceptional win strike rate – 8 wins from 14 starts. Firm track no issue. He can sit on speed and does seem to have a good turn of foot, which is what you want for this race. Given a solid 4 runs in and had the 2500M run this time in a plus. Winning form going into this a big plus too. He has been avoiding the big races and coming through some lower grade staying races so it is a bit hard to line him up. Had to carry big weights last two, so gets a nice weight drop into this race. Only concern with this one is the quality of what he has been beating, ZABELLIONAIRE, ANUDJAWUN, really you couldn’t have dreamed up two weaker lead in races. Drawn out a little and he does like to race handy so probably going to get caught wide. Not sure about him, he is in winning form, he has the turn of foot to win this and the win strike rate, just a bit hard to work out exactly how well he is going based on his lead up form. Prefer place. 16-RISING ROMANCE is another 4YO mare, so who knows, this year could be the big comeback year for lightly weighted 4YO mares in the Caulfield Cup. Coming along nicely, and kicked on well in a small field last start, not entirely convinced of the strength of that form though. Did beat the favourite the (15) in the Australasian Oaks in the Autumn. She has the class to win this and firm track no issue. She normally races on speed though and the barrier here might be a bit of an issue, they either go forward and get caught wide or drop back. Nothing wrong with her form, she is lightly raced, might be one to watch the betting on and see whether the money comes for her or not? No reason why she can’t be in the finish here. Rough only. 2nd W=$11.60 Sacking: 1-ADMIRE RAKTI sees the long awaited return of the Japanese. Last seen in 2005/2006, unlike the much hyped, and so often disappointing Europeans, the Japanese horses have placed twice in Caulfield Cups, before running the quinella in the 2006 Melbourne Cup. Topweight in a handicap, drawn a nice barrier, really like all these internationals you are just playing a guessing game as to how well they have acclimatised down here and we always prefer to let them have a run before getting on board. No point betting on unknowns, that is what lucky dips and mystery prizes are for. Firm track looks no issue. Not quite sure of his racing pattern. The internationals who run well have normally proven themselves here before and always prefer to wait and see with them. Watch the betting moves but happy to risk today. Passing. 1st W=$12.80 2-DANDINO SCR 3-GREEN MOON is the 2012 Melbourne Cup winner who has not won a race in 2 years or 11 starts since then, but he has been constantly running in the top 3 or 4 in most of the main big name races. He does seem to be more of a Flemington horse though, with only the one 2nd here at Caulfield now from 6 outings. Firm track suits. He didn’t really show much in 4 starts last spring. Autumn form this year was better. Only the 2 runs this time in and very hard to win this race with less than 3 runs in. Wasn’t far off them 1st up and then ran well below par 2nd up and there did seem to be a bit of a query as to whether he would go on this spring. Must have pleased stable enough to send him around here. Drawn a nice barrier and can race on speed, and he can suddenly turn his form around sometimes. Bit hard to have at the moment though coming off questionable form and at the top of the weights in a feature handicap. No 4-SEA MOON is a Williams import come local Aussie who had huge wraps on him last spring but really didn’t live up to the hype. His only win last spring came in a fairly mediocre field in the Herbert Power, though guess he was carrying weight that day. Firm track no issues. Was given 3-4 runs last spring and he did seem to want hard racing and time and distance to run into form. He seems to like his races tough, he is a really tough slogger one paced stayer. Well held in really ordinary field last start, hardly think being beaten home by ANUDJAWUN qualifies as leading cup form. Have to say though he did seem to be picking up and working into his race late there though. Think he is a Flemington horse, he wants 3200M or more, and a tough slogging staying race, and the sit sprint dash Caulfield Cup isn’t going to suit. Outside barrier and probably drops well back too. Passing. 6-THE OFFER is heading towards that one day in November and highly likely that he is going to be one of those horses that runs on in all his lead up races to run 4th, 5th or 6th, running great Melbourne Cup trials, until that big day comes along and he is set for the race all spring - and he does nothing. You really need to be in winning form going into these big feature races, not just running on late. Fitter for the 3 runs in, the extra distance is going to suit and he is lightly raced with a good win strike rate. He definitely prefers a bit of give in the ground though and this track is likely to come up quite firm. Not sure they are going to go fast enough for him here, he has drawn outside, and likely to drop well back in the field, but should get a clear run at them from the barrier. He is just about due to run into form, so might do something today, but suspect he is going to be the one running on late for 3rd to 6th and everyone will be saying “ooh, what a great Melbourne Cup trial”, but unfortunately no bookmakers pay out on that so happy to let him run today. Risking. 7-SEISMOS is a European visitor, coming into this in winning form which is really important. He does normally race on speed too, so be interesting to see how quickly they run along here – more an leisurely English countryside stroll? Or a tear away leader? Barrier 1 bugs us slightly, there is always a lot of pressure early on in this race as horses try to get across from outside barriers so he is going to have to work early to keep his position which might not be to his liking. Local jockey on board a big plus. Just wonder coming to the turn when you need that turn of foot whether he is going to be able to go with them? He probably won’t be far away and in the first six or so. Rough place only and the token international to throw into your multiples. 13-STIPULATE was looking likely and on the way up at the start of spring, but things haven’t gone quite according to plan. First up win was outstanding, zoomed past some fit and in form types that have gone on since. Then set a task up to WFA 2nd up, but was well backed and very disappointing, before not being disgraced in the Turnbull Stakes. Win strike rate isn’t the best. Stable has had a really good spring and they haven’t won a feature Melbourne spring race for a while. Drawn a nice barrier, but think you would want to see a change of riding tactics here to be more forward, as good chance he is going to get caught back in the pack and need luck. Bit hard to line him up and know exactly how well he is going, his last two runs have just been OK. Hard to back with any enthusiasm, he might get up and get into the finish, but prefer to just sit back and see how he lines up here. No 17-BIG MEMORY has been having a pretty good spring and has come to hand pretty quickly. Good win and place strike rate. Really liked the 1st up run when he almost got the (19) on the line, though guess he was getting 4.5kgs from that one. Always looked the winner here last week, after perfect on pace sit, but did plenty wrong in the straight and almost threw it away. Only drops 1kgs into this much, much tougher race, though should have plenty improvement to come with only the 3 runs in. Import who is gradually on the up and likely to go onto win another good race this spring, but not sure he is quite up to this level yet. We were on him last start, and actually think given the run, he should have won a lot easier than he did. Does have winning form going into this. Outside barrier a big negative here as does like to race on speed. Even though we were on him last week going to drop off him today as think he is covered in this field. Risking. 18-GRIS CARO SCR 21-UNCHAIN MY HEART (emerg) is a tiny little mare and tough as, that she manages to be competitive against all the big and nasty muscled up blokes in staying races. She need dry tracks and tough distance races, the better the further for her and she does prefer big tracks – only one placing here from 6 starts. She was heading towards a win this preparation but didn’t really fire here last week in a weaker race so hard to see her being a factor here. Even harder to see her getting into the field here as third emergency – but hey , guess the first two emergencies got in so you never know your luck. No 22-RENEW (emerg) is the token fourth emergency so is pretty much the last guy you pick when you have no-one left to make up the playground footy team. Lightly raced import who did nothing here last week in his first Australian start – and even more noticeable that he didn’t have any betting support. Might go forward as well if he gets into the field so that would add to the speed in this race but no interest apart from that. Summary: Quite liking this race this year, really most of the 2nd half of the field have some chance and often the Caulfield Cup field can come up a bit lack lustre. This year we have 7 last start winners and 11 who have finished in the first three home at their last run, which is better than most years and that means this is a tough competitive little race. Compare that to last year where there was just the two internationals coming off a winning lead up run. We could have sworn a few weeks back the media was hounding up stories about half of the field being international runners. We ended up with three. Hey, they even let the emergencies have a run this year, which was nice of them. The keys things to consider with the Caulfield Cup are: - winning form – plenty of that this year and with any of these spring features, they are tough to win, and you really need to be in peak form to win them. - you need to have a turn of foot to win this race. It always gets really messy coming around the home turn and there are plenty of hard luck stories, you want to be out in clear room and not trying to weave your way through the field. Look out for those rolling on speed who can make their run at the right time. - this race is often won by a lightly raced 4YO or 5YO on the rise and there are plenty of options here this year, but suspect the favourite here the (15) will be the one who gets very well backed. - line up the weights from the Caulfield Stakes and Turnbull Stakes, the traditional lead in runs. The Caulfield Stakes we only have 12-DEAR DEMI who drops 2.5kgs. Turnbull Stakes we have 3-GREEN MOON dropping 2kgs (beaten 11.9L), 6-THE OFFER dropping only 1kgs (beaten 4.1L), 8-HAWKSPUR dropping 2kgs (beaten 5.3L), 13-STIPULATE dropping only 0.5 kgs (beaten 3.6L), 14-LIDARI dropping 2kgs (beaten 0.5L), 15-LUCIA VALENTINA dropping 0.5 kgs (winner), 19-BRAMBLES dropping 1kgs (beaten 0.6L). So the (14) is the best off from weights there from a fairly tight finish. The speed here should be pretty genuine, there are plenty of options as to who can lead, and quite a few who can sit handy, and often the pressure is on early as horses try to cross from outside barriers. Likely leaders are the internationals, the 5-BANDE, 7-SEISMOS , bit hard to know exactly how fast they are going to run along though. Sitting handy behind them will be 9-JUNOOB, 14-LIDARI, 16-RISING ROMANCE, 17-BIG MEMORY (wide), 19-BRAMBLES and that is the group you want to watch out for here as they will get out and get rolling on the turn at the right time. It is quite unusual this year that not one, but two emergencies have got into the field, normally it is just a token gesture. We are going to tip one of the them on top too – the 19-BRAMBLES. He has classic 3YO staying form, long injury lay off, done everything right this spring, and he was leading till the last 50M in the Turnbull when he just got worn down, but fought out the finish really well. Loves dry ground, drawn well, will roll on speed here and given himself every chance and likely to stay out the 2400M pretty well here. Just likely to be in the right spot at the right time to win this if he is good enough. The danger is definitely the favourite the 15-LUCIA VALENTINA, she has the class to win this and the turn of foot to put herself into the race. Probably she is top pick if there was some rain, but still right in this race and suspect she will get very well backed. Other chance to the 9-JUNOOB who is racing extremely well and another who will go forward and make his own luck, and the 14-LIDARI likely to be in the finish somewhere. Best roughie by a mile here is the 2nd emergency the 20-ARALDO who will appreciate the speed, get a clear run at them from an outside barrier and is just running into form. Fairly confident the winner is in the three selections. Planning to back the top pick each way and in quinellas, and make sure you have a novelty quinella on the two emergencies 19-BRAMBLES and 20-ARALDO because stranger things have happened. Really good betting race this year and keen to have a bet. One to risk: 6-THE OFFER 11th W=$26 Roughie: 20-ARALDO 5th W=$37.40 The Key: Winning form going into a feature race. RESULTS: The Japanese horses again show how they are very different from the European internationals and their record in the major spring races is now outstanding. As opposed to the record of the European internationals which continues to be pretty ordinary. Poor jockey on 16-RISING ROMANCE thought he had the race won when he cut the corner and shot through - that move so often pinches this race. 15-LUCIA VALENTINA was good, but really liked the run of roughie 20-ARALDO who continues to race with his head on the side, was making good ground and probably would have run a place if he didn't strike interference earlier in the straight. |
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