|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD CUP - 16th Oct 2016|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We have fine sunny weather heading into the weekend (finally!), and this track should come up quite firm. The racing pattern has been pretty even all week, but just keep an eye out because sometimes Caulfield can tend towards on pacers on a sunny drying day and a firm track.
In the Caulfield Cup, much has been said about the lack of quality runners and really this is one of the dullest Caulfield Cups we have ever seen. May even grab a quick power nap when they jump. We are really struggling to find any interest in having a bet in the race at all. Normally want to tend towards last start winners and those with genuine form going into this race and really the 11-JAMEKA is a stand out based on how far she beat the rest of the field by in the Turnbull, which is the traditional lead up race into this. Main danger is the 12-REAL LOVE who is flying this time in and will get a good on pace run from the middle barrier, and the 8-SIR JOHN HARKWOOD looks over the odds for one of the few runners in the field with actual form. As always, the unknown internationals get well spruiked but we are happy to keep avoiding them and the one that runs the best is normally the one at longest odds. Best roughie is the 17-PEMBERLEY, who we used to think was a distance query past 2000M, but was good here last week, has no weight and is fairly lightly raced so might have some upside.
Often Sydney horses dominate on this day in the lesser races and there are a stack of well supported Sydney runners in the betting markets, but have to say some look to be totally rubbish odds. From a betting point of view this is a good day to anchor the well supported top picks to win in a trifecta and go wide for placings and often something at odds will pop up to blow out the dividend.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 1-SEABURGE $6 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 5: 7-HIGHLAD $4 WIN
The Caulfield Classic is quite a keen betting race and there are plenty of chances. We were on the 1-SEABURGE last week in the Guineas at odds and he only just missed so we have to back him again today. Slight concern about barrier 1 and dropping back in a field with not much speed, but if he repeats last week’s run he should just about win at around $3.50. Suspect he will be better odds come race time with moves for other runners though. The main danger is the leader, the NZ horse 7-HIGHLAD who was really good at Flemington at his first Australian start leading into a strong head win and did really well to hang on for third. Shouldn’t get much pressure up front in a staying race and chance the track could be favouring on pacers so looks a genuine danger. Back both to win and if you are feeling exotic take wide trifectas for the placings in a race with a lot of chances.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 6-VEZALAY $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 6-VEZALAY, 7-SUPER CASH x $2
QUINELLA: Race 3: 6-VEZALAY, 1-MISS PROMISCUITY x $1
Really consistent and probably a bit under rated sprinter whose record here is fantastic. Has won her last two starts this track and distance including this race last year in a similar field. 1st up from a spell, but fresh form is good and should get the perfect run on the rails here on the speed from an inside barrier. Looks a great each way bet at around $6.50 and take the quinella with the rapidly improving 7-SUPER CASH, and the out of form class sprinting mare who might improve with the two runs in 1-MISS PROMISCUITY (and those two horses quinellaed this race last year).
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-FRENCH EMOTION $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 4-FRENCH EMOTION#2,9,10,11 x $4 = 100%
We are quite surprised at the odds on offer about this one, around $15, considering she beat home many of these last start in a barnstorming finish down the middle of the track. Last two runs have been excellent, win/place strike rate is excellent and could be one on the up here. Can race handy here in a race where there doesn’t seem to be that much speed. Back each way and anchor in value quinellas with the leader and short priced favourite the 2-TYCOON TARA, the 9-JESSY BELLE who has been unlucky a few times this preparation and think she is better back to 1400M and on a dry track and the 10-DENMAGIC and 11-TELOPEA.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 12-VIOLATE $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 12-VIOLATE, 3-INSIDE AGENT, 9-PEACOCK boxed x $3 = 100%
We tipped this one as Best Rough last start and it ended up going around at $100 and was actually bloody unlucky. Ended up further back in the field than intended, jockey rode it like a 5000-1 chance and wasn’t really vigorous in looking for runs and ended up just getting held up and went to the line hard held. Drawn a nice middle barrier and can race a lot more forward today in a race with no speed and Oliver jumps on board. Looks a great rough chance at around $17 and might get well backed in a race where the odds about the Sydney horses look just plain silly. Back each way and there is a huge value quinella here away from the favourites with the improving 3-INSIDE AGENT who might just need some luck from the inside barrier and the likely leader the 9-PEACOCK.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 13-AROHATA $2 EW
This race often throws up a value winner and not overly impressed with the form of those coming through the feature filly races so don’t be surprised if something with country form pops up at odds. This one has had only 3 starts, stepping up in distance every time and like that she is the only runner here with a 2000M run into this race. First time onto a dry track too. Worth something each way at around $26.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 4-MORTON’S FORK at around $3.80
Think the odds about the two Sydney horses in this race are just plain silly and there are plenty of up and coming horses who could win this. This one will drop back, there isn’t much speed here and just seems silly odds. We should disclose though that after a clean slate start to the year, the last three Lay of the Days have all won….
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
TRIFECTA: Race 10: 11,12 / 4,9,11,12,15 / 1,2,4,9,11,12,15 x $5 = 12.5%
Think this is a good day for this sort of bet, anchoring the main chances to win in the trifecta and going wide for the placings. The 12-VOODOO LAD is in flying form and just beaten at Group 1 level this track and distance last start and the main danger is the very well weighted 11-HOPFGARTEN who can race handier today. Anchor them to win and hope something like the good value roughie 15-DAN ZEPHYR gets into the finish for a dividend blow out.
Race 1: 3-SKYLIGHT GLOW, 6-ANOTHER BULLSEYE, 5-SYLPHEED
Race 2: 12-VIOLATE, 3-INSIDE AGENT, 9-PEACOCK
Race 3: 6-VEZALAY, 7-SUPER CASH, 1-MISS PROMISCUITY
Race 4: 5-ELENORA, 13-AROHATA, 1-MOQUEEN
Race 5: 1-SEABURGE, 7-HIGHLAD, 8-KENT
Race 6: 2-THE CLEANER, 3-MAURUS, 1-IT’S SOMEWHAT
Race 7: 4-FRENCH EMOTION, 2-TYCOON TARA, 9-JESSY BELLE
Race 8: 11-JAMEKA, 12-REAL LOVE, 8-SIR JOHN HARKWOOD
Race 9: 4-WILD RAIN, 5-HELLBENT, 8-VIDDORA
Race 10: 12-VOODOO LAD, 11-HOPFGARTEN, 15-DAN ZEPHYR