|CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 21st Oct 2017|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 6M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Just a few light showers heading into the weekend, but this track is going to remain extremely firm as it has been all week. The racing pattern has distinctly favoured those on speed and towards the inside this week, though they could run on if they went hard enough in front here on Weds. Rail goes OUT 6M and that should even out the racing pattern, but just keep an eye out again as some of these fields are on the smaller side and there won’t be much pressure up front, so it won’t be any disadvantage to be on the speed.
In the Caulfield Cup we have one of the most even fields in a long time, and you could make a case for most of these. The Caulfield Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes are always the form lead up races, and whilst the favourite 3-JOHANNES VERMEER was really good here last week, just got a query about where he is going to end up in the run from an inside barrier as an international horse. If he pushes forward he is right in this, just concerned he will get cluttered up back in the field.
Going to stick with the 4-JON SNOW here on top, even thought fully appreciate he would probably want some rain. He has the classic 3YO staying form, 4YOs often win this race and thought last run was OK when he had to do a bit of work early up the hill. Best of all S.Baster on board and will go forward from a good barrier and make his own luck. He will probably hit the front on the home turn and will be up to something to come out and run him down. The 15-HARLEM the main danger, really strong winning here two starts back and then OK stepping up in distance and think there is further improvement to come from that run, though he might need to cut the corner from barrier 1. The 7-VENTURA STORM has been racing well and looks ready to do something here, again well drawn and racing on speed so will make his own luck whilst the rest are out the back getting held up and running “good Melbourne Cup trials”. Also giving a good chance to the 9-INFERENCE, who has been slowly building to something this time in, and should have won the VRC Derby last year, think he will be the one running on late and suspect he is going to get solid support too, solid chance, just not sure he is value at the current odds on his form this time in. Best roughie for the multiples is definitely the 13-BOOM TIME, who loves it on speed and dry tracks and will be fitter for the run up in distance here last week. Going to be a very interesting betting race to watch as well.
Not a great betting program overall, as there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of value in these fields. Can’t see there being much in the way of exotic dividends, so looks a day for a solid win bets on 1-2 runners at around $5 in each race. Often Sydney horses dominate the rest of the program today.
BEST BET : Race 4: 4-MAIN STAGE $7 WIN
Up and coming 3YO stayer whose last win was nothing short of sensational. Dropped back to last from an outside barrier when they wanted to go forward, hooked to the middle of the track and chased down a leader that had kicked clear. Super classy win. Small field here, and he can take a handy position, which is his normal racing pattern and is just plain flying at the moment. Have a confident win bet at around $4, and this is one of the Sportsbet money back with bonus bets races if your horse runs a place (see link above), which should be a pretty safe way to go in a small field of eight runners.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 10-KIWIA $5 WIN
EXACTA: Race 5: 8-SAMOVARE - 10-KIWIA x $2 = 200%
Small field again, but this one is a stayer on the rise with a really good win strike rate. Fitter for the 2 runs back in, and was flying home late last start. Good track stats, and should be unbeaten in 3 runs here. Normally drops back in the run, so probably want them to be running on OK, but just looks one on the way up and happy to back straight out at around $6. Main danger is the 8-SAMOVARE, who got caught up in speed battler here last start, so maybe back the (10) straight out and save on the exacta 8-10 in case she pinches a break on them here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 6-GRANDE ROSSO $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-GRANDE ROSSO, 2-BURNING FRONT x $1.50 = 150%
QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-GRANDE ROSSO, 5-ULMANN x $1.50 = 150%
Really consistent type when he strikes form and has been racing well this time in, just got caught up on a speed battle here last start when faded. Much kinder tempo here today and well drawn to sit on speed. Track and distance stats are sensational, 3 times winner here, 6 times winner this distance and looks a safe each way bet at around $6. Should be in the finish, so go again with quinellas with the leader the 2-BURNING FRONT, who should be ready to do something now with the two runs in, and the flashy, strong finishing 5-ULMANN who wasn’t suited down the straight last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-JON SNOW $4 EW
Always want to follow the 4YO with classic 3YO staying form in the Caulfield Cup, especially if they are in winning form this time in, and have form through the right lead up races. Drawn well, will go forward, firm track the only query but should give you a good run for your money and suspect will be hitting the front soon after they turn for home – just a matter of if something comes out and runs him down. Probably better to bet with the bookies on fixed odds, as suspect the gold of the Seven Kingdoms will be riding on the popular name on the tote and will start shorter there.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 13-SHILLELAGH $2.50 EW
Hopelessly unlucky mare who continues to strike the worse of luck in her races, but has ability. In this race last year she was travelling well on the inside and almost got sent through the fence. Ran on well enough first up and stays at the 1400M and should be fitter for the run. Like that she has drawn out, hopefully the luck comes her way today and with clear running down the middle of the track she should be in the finish. Each way at around $10, though suspect you will get longer odds on the tote come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 6-CONCHITA $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 6-CONCHITA#2,3,5,10 x $4 = 100%
Sprinting mare with some ability who was really good 1st up at MV chasing home hard. The 5-0-0-0 form line for the 1100M is a bit of a concern, but nearly all of those runs have been on heavy tracks so happy to give her another chance here. Well drawn and can sit just off the speed here and finish on strongly. Back each way at around $10, and anchor in a value quinella in the get out last race, if the favourite the (3) flops, there are great rough chances like the 2-PRUSSIAN VIXEN, who would be a chance here back to form, the 5-HIGHLY GEARED, and the 10-SNEAKERS.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 1-ONE MORE HONEY at around $5.50
This is always a ridiculous race and the last race you want to go backing a favourite in. Drop back Sydney horse, who has drawn barrier 1in a big, even field of 3YO fillies, first time around Caulfield. Although fitter for the 3 runs in they have only been even at best. Just prefer to back something at value in such a big field and happy to risk as 2nd favourite in this race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4,7,9,13,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
The quinella in the Caulfield Cup should pay pretty well with a big even field, especially if you can find something out of the usual to get into the finish. We have already identified the main chances in the preview, 4-JON SNOW, 15-HARLEM, 7-VENTURA STORM, 9-INFERENCE, and the value roughie 13-BOOM TIME, so boxing them all up in a quinella.
Race 1: 4-JUSTICE GLORY, 6-OUR CROWN MISTRESS, 3-COUNTERPLAY
Race 2: 3-ÉCLAIR SUNSHINE, 8-LORD SUNDOWNER, 9-WASSERGEIST
Race 3: 4-SPEEDWAY, 17-SNOGGING (emerg), 14-THINK DIAMONDS, 5-HIYAAM
Race 4: 4-MAIN STAGE, 2-CLIFFS EDGE, 1-TANGLED
Race 5: 10-KIWIA, 8-SAMOVARE, 2-TURNITAROUND
Race 6: 6-GRANDE ROSSO, 2-BURNING FRONT, 5-ULMANN
Race 7: 8-SNITTY KITTY, 10-PROPERTY, 7-SWEET SHERRY
Race 8: 4-JON SNOW, 15-HARLEM, 7-VENTURA STORM
Race 9: 1-FOXPLAY, 13-SHILLELAGH, 16-SWAMPLAND
Race 10: 6-CONCHITA, 3-NIETA, 5-HIGHLY GEARED