|CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD CUP - 19th October 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
The weather is a bit all over the place, showers, then sun, then a few showers again on Saturday, but probably not enough to affect the track. What is going to be really crucial here is the rail position, which has gone back to TRUE after being OUT 10M on Weds. We have track records going back 20 years and normally the rail goes TRUE to OUT 6M as the week progresses and only once in that time has the rail stayed TRUE for the whole week, and never has it gone out and back in again. We strongly suspect that after a few races today the inside is going to go off, it looked like it was starting to turn end of last Saturday as they were shifting off the rails and with a 10 race program today think it is going to wear out. Just watch out for outside barriers and those running on late if that is the case.
The Caulfield Cup is Race 9 on the card, so that racing pattern is going to be crucial and we suspect the inside of the track is going to be very well worn by then. This is a Caulfield Cup that holds very little interest for us, there are just far too many overseas runners with unexposed form that we canít line up, and normally we steer clear of the Melbourne Cup for the same reason. The Turnbull and the Caulfield Stakes are normally the two race to focus on, but very few runners are coming through those races this year. The locals just arenít really showing any brilliance this spring either, apart from the retirees and those with hip replacements and neither of them are running this week anyway. The one thing we always look for in these feature spring races is winning form, either last start, or at the very least this preparation, you really need to be at your peak against these sort of fields.
So the brief form summary of those we are familiar with. The 1-HARTNELL has been consistent all spring, but also consistently 1-2 lengths behind, hard to see him winning giving 4kgs or more to over half this field from an outside barrier, but probably runs first 6 or so again. The 6-FINCHE has barely set a foot wrong in Australia in two campaigns, was very competitive in these races last spring and he ticks winning form and Turnbull form. Has drawn that outside barrier, but horses can actually go forward and get across from outside barriers in the Caulfield Cup and sit just outside the leader so as long as they are positive from the jump we donít have an issue with the barrier. The 12-MR QUICKIE and 14-VOW AND DECLARE are both lightly raced, well preformed Australian stayers attempting this 3rd up and 2nd up respectively with very European style preparations, whether that works out remains to be seen, would prefer to see the (12) again after a flat run, and the (14) is probably some chance but only if they ride him a bit more forward from a good barrier. The 16-THE CHOSEN ONE raises a lot of interest, 4YOs have a good record in this race and he is a last start winner with classic staying 3YO form. Barrier is a worry for us and suspect he is going to end up at the back of this field, but he is a winning chance. The 18-WOLFE is fit, in form and winner of the Coongy on Weds and likely leader here, gets in with no weight as well, not sure he has the class to win this, but well drawn and leading definitely worth putting in your exotics. Starting to see things falling into place here for the 17-QAFILA, 4YO mare, on speed, good barrier, donít be surprised if she runs much better than the odds suggest. The horse we would put on top in an instant in this field is the 22-PRINCE OF ARRAN, his Australian staying form is sensational, and he looked the winner in last yearís Melbourne Cup when he kicked clear in the straight. In good form, and most important he has the turn of foot to win a Caulfield Cup, but as fourth emergency he is $100 to even make the field. The rest of the locals are seriously out of form.
For the internationals, we were safe with the pattern that if you havenít seen them race here, donít back them for many years, but that seems to have finally turned in the last few years. The Japanese hoses definitely seem more suited to this race and have often finished top 4 when they have competed. Watch the betting market, and then totally ignore it, the best international is rarely the one the money comes for and you are probably better off just picking random runners.
The speed in this race looks moderate to us, the 18-WOLFE leads comfortably and probably clearly, the 9-ANGEL OF TRUTH should push forward, we think the 6-FINCHE wonít have much trouble getting across, and probably the out of form 17-QAFILA goes forward as well. You would think one of the internationals will go forward too, probably one of the Europeans. To be honest, there is very little form in this field and one of the internationals probably wins, but we have no idea which one so that doesnít help. 22-PRINCE OF ARRAN is the clear and confident top pick, which is utterly useless as he is unlikely to make the field though so not even worth putting it on top in the selections. The obvious pick on form is the 6-FINCHE who looks to be going places this spring and it wouldnít take much to pick up a Caulfield Cup along the way. Letís throw a random international in for second with the 7-GOLD MOUNT, hoping they can race handy from a good barrier, and respect the 16-THE CHOSEN ONE as a danger. Best roughies are the 18-WOLFE, but mainly for a place in your exotics and the 17-QAFILA who might get the right run on the speed here with the same run, stable, and jockey as BOOM TIME. Pretty much a no bet race for us though, and thatís just sad as this is normally one of our favourite races of the year.
Big ten race program for punters and think we just want to focus on a few each way bets today. Traditionally this is also a day when a lot of Sydney horses win, so look far and wide in the form guide. Donít be surprised to see some value winners in the first few races with lots of horses coming off country form on the improve, but the form is more exposed later in the day and you can bet with more confidence.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-TRITON RISING $4 EW
One of the earlier races where you probably want to watch out for those improving in grade. This one won a synthetic maiden which is form you normally ignore, but then was really good at Flemington last start on a dynamite leaders track when dropped back and didnít get the clearest run home and flashed home late. Smaller field, drawn out and should be finishing on hard at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-HUNTLY CASTLE $5 EW
This is our main bet of the day and looks like a staying type about to hit peak form just in time for the spring staying features. Worked home nicely first up and then loomed and kept trying last start in what was a pretty brutal 1800M race that turned into a tough staying contest. He has a class turn of foot that can be used to advantage in this small field with not much speed and think he will just run over the top of them. Really surprised about the odds on offer at $10, thought he would be pushing favouritism here. Very keen.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-MALIBU STYLE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-MALIBU STYLE#9,10 x $2 = 200%
Old stager who has a habit of winning at nice odds (and also winning at nice odds when we back him, which is a great quality for a horse to have). Seems to be in career best form and has been in first four last 6 runs. Has to give weight to these, but he is tough and just loves sitting on the speed and presenting at the right time. Important to note he was scratched from Caulfield Weds from a weaker race for this which is a very positive sign. Each way at around $11 seems extremely generous and save with a quinella with the two down the bottom who seem the main dangers, the 9-GOD OF THUNDER, 10-MCLAREN.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-MANOLO BLANHNIQ $3 EW
QUINELLA: 4-STREETS OF AVALON#6,7,9 x $3 = 100%
Doesnít win out of turn, but this one needs 1400M, a dry track and likes Caulfield. Does have a habit of dropping back and having no luck, but the small field today should see him get a clear crack at them. Really good here last week and should be swooping around the field if the speed is fast enough. Good value each way at around $11, and save on the quinella with our old favourite the 4-STREETS OF AVALON who loves the Caulfield 1400M, didnít run out the 1600M in the Toorak and this is the first winnable race he has struck this time in.
TRIFECTA: Race 10: 7,11 / 1,6,7,11,14 / 1,2,6,7,10,11,14 x $5 = 12.5%
The Group 2 mares race at the end of the day looks a good chance to try for a gettable value trifecta. Think one of the top two picks wins, either the 11-ANGELIC RULER, 7-POHUTUKAWA and the (11) will be particularly suited if they are running on late. In an even field there will be plenty of value around in the exotics, the 14-BELLA MARTINI might run a good race from a good barrier on speed so just hope something at value lobs for third to blow the dividend out.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-OCEAN MISS $1.50 EW
This race seems to be the most likely to throw up a value result outside of the Caulfield Cup which is a raffle. This one has only had the two starts, maiden winner and then was held up for runs when plenty to give at Flemington on the turn and suspect plenty of improvement still to come. Should go forward here and box seat which is always a plus in a staying race. Rough chance at around $21
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 9-MIAMI BOUND at around $2.70
We laid this one last start and to be honest we were incredibly lucky as it got a perfect run on the speed, burst through and looked the winner and got run down by some ridiculous outsider out wide. We didnít really want to take it on again today but struggling to find much else for the Lay of the Day. There are a few good staying horses in this race, and she just seems under the odds in this field and would prefer to back others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 6,7,16,17,18 boxed x $5 = 50%
We will begrudgingly take a box quinella in the Caulfield Cup just because thatís what we normally do. The 6-FINCHE, 16-THE CHOSEN ONE look to have the best form going into the race, the 7-GOLD MOUNT is the random international and respecting the 18-WOLFE and in particular the 17-QAFILA as horses at odds that may run a race.
Race 1: 7-ARCTIC SHOCK, 4-JENKINS, 11-VIGERE
Race 2: 5-STAY GOLD, 7-CHARLEISE, 11-DEBTíNíDEFICIT
Race 3: 7-TRITON RISING, 9-LORD MARKEL, 3-HILO
Race 4: 2-HUNTLY CASTLE, 7-THOUGHT OF THAT, 3-WARNING
Race 5: 5-VINICUNA, 2-HUMMA HUMMA, 3-SOOTHING
Race 6: 3-LEVEN LASS, 2-CELESTIAL FALLS, 11-OCEAN MISS
Race 7: 2-MALIBU STYLE, 9-GOD OF THUNDER, 10-MCLAREN
Race 8: 7-MANOLO BLANHNIQ, 4-STREETS OF AVALON, 9-DESERT LORD
Race 9: 6-FINCHE, 7-GOLD MOUNT, 16-THE CHOSEN ONE
Race 10: 11-ANGELIC RULER, 7-POHUTUKAWA, 14-BELLA MARTINI