|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD CUP - 16th October 2021|
|Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
The Caulfield track is currently a SOFT(5) as of Friday morning, but there is heavy rain forecast for late Friday night and solid rain again during the day on Saturday so we are going to be looking at a severely rain affected track and almost certainly well into the heavy range. Rail goes back to TRUE, same as last week, but on a rain affected track they will should be spreading wide on the turn, especially by the time the feature race comes around. Look for hard and fit horses proven in the going and suspect wider will be better later in the day.
Tricky betting day as the track pattern on a likely heavy track will be a big influence, but there is plenty to bet on over 10 races (and letís hope the scratchings donít rip these fields apart). We are coming off a great mid-week result in the Thousand Guineas finding the roughie winner YEARNING at W=$29, and there are a few we are keen on each way today at odds so we are going to double up the suggested bets to $100 again. As always, bet responsibly and scale the bets to your limits and remember you donít need to bet big to win big Ė you just need to create a bet that will pay big. Note a lot of the horses we have tipped at odds are wet trackers and may shorten tomorrow, so it may pay to bet early and get better odds, but that also runs the risk of decreased odds because of scratchings.
We are loving a traditional Caulfield Cup with no internationals, where we know pretty much all of the runners and have followed them for years and can line them up so we can have a confident bet. Doing the form assuming a heavy track and that the inside will be off by the time this race comes around.
Comments on each Caulfield Cup runner:
1-HOMESMAN is a tough on-pace stayer who is sparingly raced and normally runs his best races fresh. Fitter for the two runs in, went for home very early here last week and total rattled ZAAKI, but also came unstuck as well Ė he actually stuck on pretty well though. He ran on really well to only just miss in the 2018 Caulfield Cup. He has been treated as a 1600M to 2000M horse since then and picked up an Australian Cup along the way. Unknown on very heavy ground, and probably at best over slightly shorter, but he will roll on-speed here and might stick on pretty well and think he is over the odds at $41 against a field like this and a rough chance. Definitely one for wide exotics.
2-INCENTIVISE is all the rage going into this race, and that is totally justified for one with 8 wins in a row and a total margin of a lazy 40 lengths or so. Wasnít sure how he was going to measure up once he came south for spring, but both wins he has been challenged and found more and won and showed an extra gear. Drops 2kgs from Turnbull Stakes win, but place getters drop more in weight. Proven on wet ground in weaker classes in QLD, heavy track 2400M is a different game though. Drawn wide an extra challenge, but they can come from wider barriers in the Caulfield Cup and roll on-speed and miss all the interference back in the field. He is definitely the one to beat and deserves to be favourite, think a heavy track 2400M at the end of the day when the track is chopping up though evens this right up though and he is no sure thing. One to beat Ė but is beatable.
3-EXPLOSIVE JACK collected the TAS, ATC, SA Derbies and only just missed in the QLD Derby in an astounding 3YO campaign (and never had to quarantine crossing borders). Only two runs this time in and he has worked home well in both of them over unsuitable distances. Looks to handle wet tracks. Coming into this off a very tough autumn campaign and still a bit wary of how he will go this spring, so he is still in the watch basket for us. Donít think the inside barrier will be any favour at the end of the day either, if he goes for inside runs when the field spreads turning for home. Happy to risk.
4-THE CHOSEN ONE has been around for a few years and has been very consistent without winning one of the majors, but he did place third in this race last year behind two very smart ones, and run 4th in a Melbourne Cup and 2nd in a Sydney Cup, so he is well and truly overdue. He can be a bit hard to catch though and put in poor runs sometimes, but he has actually been racing better than ever this time in. Well supported 1st up and ran on well, and ran on strongly here last week behind the (10) carrying 59 kgs and will get a nice weight drop today. He is a hard, fit stayer proven at this level and he ran on extremely well on a very heavy track in the Sydney Cup to just miss, so the wet shouldnít be an issue. He has only won 2 of his last 20 starts is a concern, but most of them have been at the top level. He ran third in this race last year, and his form this year has actually been better, and he will be suited running on late out wide on a wet track and that rates him a very strong chance in this.
5-OCEAN BILLY is a NZ stayer who we donít know much about, but there is very little interest in the betting market. Had a very light preparation of only three runs in, and no further than 1600M and hard to see him being competitive in this off that sort of form.
6-SELINO is a Sydney Cup winner, but is only a grinding stayer at best. Fitter for the three runs in and he stuck on pretty well last start once he got out to the 2500M. Had only 50kgs when won the Sydney Cup and looks a definite query on wet ground. No
7-PERSAN was all the rage last spring as a lightly raced stayer going through the grades and he met every challenge as he stepped up in class which ended with a great run for 5th in the Melbourne Cup. Had grand expectations since then and didnít live up to them during the winter when was beaten as a $1.60 favourite (ouch!). Only the two runs this time in and his 1st up run was pretty good with weight when he loomed up like the winner, 2nd up in the Turnbull was just even. Likely to settle handy from a middle barrier. Wet track form is OK, and if he found his best form he would be a live winning chance in this. Bit hard to tell from his two runs this time in if he has or not, but would also be a great story for jockey Meech if she won a Caulfield Cup. Rough chance and probably one to be wary of at odds and throw in your quaddies just in case.
8-QUICK THINKER is a dead set plodder, but his wet track form is excellent and he will love the conditions today. Four runs this time in, last start in the Metropolitan he did nothing on a firm track, but his last two runs werenít too bad on wet ground and carrying big weights, and he will probably set the speed here. Hard to see him winning this, but a solid rough place chance sticking on on-speed on his preferred wet ground. (SCRATCHED)
9-CHAPADA is a bit of a tease and rarely wins and his win strike rate now stands at 3 from 33. Surprised to run on well for third in the Turnbull (drops 4kgs) and that race is normally the best guide for this. He has won a Herbert Power, ran third in an Australian Cup and third in a Turnbull, so maybe his form isnít quite as bad as punters think. Was well beaten in this race last year, but jockey did totally mess up the ride and went early and six wide on the home turn to hit the lead early in the straight. Wet track does seem to be an issue for him and best form is on top of the ground. Have to say though as a Turnbull place getter the $81 odds seem a little generous and wouldnít rule him out running a place to blow out your exotics at odds running on late out wide.
10-DELPHI is an import who has been improving with every Australian run. Just missed running down the (16) here in the Naturalism when that one got the perfect run, and cruisy dominant win here last week in the Herbert Power. Looks a solid staying type perfectly suited to this sort of race, and even better he can race on-speed and make his own luck. Not too fussed about the wide barrier here, he can come across and find a position on-speed and looks to be on the improve this spring which is what you want. Last start winner going into this race important too and a strong winning chance.
11-MASTER OF WINE is actually an excellent wet tracker, his form stats donít seem to reflect that as he had some below par preparations that were mainly on wet tracks. He went around a well-supported $7 in this race last year and disappointed, he had been well in markets that year for most of the spring. Even form earlier this year and then he finally showed something last start at his 4th run this time in when he worked home pretty well last start at Flemington. Could he finally be getting back to some of his old form? Maybe he is more dour these days? One to watch the market on as he will have support if punters think he can get back to his best, and he did start well supported in his spring runs here last year. Just hasnít shown his best form for a while and think we will wait till he does before getting on.
12-MONTEFELIA is a lightly weight 4YO mare and in traditional Caulfield Cups (which this is) they were the ones to watch out for. Fitter for the three runs in, all of which have been excellent and coming into this in winning form which is very important. Was a fairly bunched finish in the Metropolitan but she fought the race out well. Looks to handle it wet as well. She is one on the up when most of these have had multiple chances and she makes a lot of appeal in this, so surprised about the $16 on offer Ė think she is the one the money will come for. Jockey McNeil gets a good chance here to add a Caulfield Cup to last yearís Melbourne Cup. Nice middle barrier, and will drop back and split the gaps when they turn for home and think she is a strong winning chance here.
13-PORT GUILLAUME is an import who really hasnít shown anything in his first Australian preparation, though he did run on OK at odds here two starts back. No market interest. Hard to have on form
14-SHEíS IDEEL has been racing really well up in Sydney this preparation, flew home at odds 1st up, and held off the (12) two starts back, though that one was closing on her on the line and she was carrying 3.5kgs less than her that day. Caught very wide all the way last start in the Metropolitan. Definitely handles it wet and probably gets a pretty cosy run here from an inside barrier Ė though that may not be the best ground come the end of the day. She will probably be thereabouts, and maybe a rough place chance but hard to see her winning this.
15-YOUNG WERTHER was set a massive task going into the VRC Derby last year at only start number three and ran a great race. Was consistently in the finish over the Autumn and we are probably going to see the best of him this spring with experience. Fitter for two runs this time in, ran on well on the rails 1st up with a big weight and then he gave favourite backers a big scare last start in the Turnbull when he loomed like the winner but the (2) was too good. Turnbull form is the best form for his race and drops 1.5 kgs, but the favourite the (2) drops more as does the (9) . Unknown on a genuine wet track. Well drawn, lightly raced stayer on the up, jockey Moor having a great spring, and right form lines so does tick a lot of boxes, but just in the back of our mind is that he is definitely a Flemington horse and he was probably disappointing in his two runs here.
16-NONCONFORMIST has been heading towards this race for two years now and great to see him into the field and in flying form. Form this time in has been excellent, unlucky when couldnít get a run back of the field 1st up in the Lawrence, tough run wide in the Feehan when only just beaten, perfect ride to just win the Naturalism, and loved sitting behind the speed in the Caulfield Stakes and thought he had pinched that race on the line. Big weight drop from last start. Just get the feeling though that the (10) would have his measure over 2400M as he only just held him off here two starts back. He does have two soft track wins to his name, but they were both early on in his career, though he has gone OK on soft tracks a few times. Worse than slow? Mornington Cup 2400M run was good, but has to be a query at the distance. Just get the feeling that the outside barrier, 2400M on a heavy track finds him out here, but bit nervous taking him on considering how good his form is. Would love to get on him in a WFA Mackinnon in a few weeks time.
17-DUAIS is a 4YO mare with no weight which are the runners to watch out for in a traditional Caulfield Cup. Fitter for the 3 runs in and caused a boilover here on Weds to beat the $1.50 favourite who was trying to earn entry into the field here, but she was always in the field and this was the plan Ė vaccine passport and all. Classic 3YO form is pretty good, she has only missed the place 3 times in her career Ė two of them were on heavy tracks (though both were over shorter distances). Hard to work out why she went around at $11 here at Weds given her form, and would be a great boost for the dear old Coogny as a lead-up to score the winner of the Caulfield Cup. She is likely to drop back here along the inside, which may not be the best going and slightly wary of her on the quick back up. Some winning chance though.
18-CHARMS STAR is another 4YO mare with no weight who has been well held in her three runs this time in. NZ mare who ran some OK races in the 3YO classic staying events and she actually fought on OK last start in the Metropolitan when stepping up sharply in distance. She was held there by a few going around here though and hard to see her being competitive in this. No
19-GREAT HOUSE (emerg) is a very dour import who has had a few preparations now in Australia and has been beaten at $2.50, $2.50, $1.95 and $3.20 and of course Ė won at $13. Punters!! Good wet track form and was a tough win in the Newcastle Cup (meets the (8) 2kgs worse off) before sticking on well out very wide in a bunched finish in the Metropolitan. Pretty solid staying type who handles it wet and is hard fit with multiple 2400M runs into a tough slog wet track staying race so he is actually a good rough chance now he is in the field.
20-CONSTANTINOPLE (emerg) is unlikely to get into the field, unless a covid scare takes out some of his opposition. Ran 4th in this race back in 2019 and went around well supported in a Melbourne Cup, but has seriously struggled for form since. No
The strongest form lines for this race are normally the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Stakes. From the Turnbull, the 2-INCENTIVISE (1st) drops 2kgs, 3-EXPLOSIVE JACK (5th) drops 4kgs, 9-CHAPADA (3rd) drops 4kgs and 15-YOUNG WERTHER (2nd) drops 1.5kgs, but still think 2-INCENTIVISE has them covered from that race. From the Caulfield Stakes the 1-HOMESMAN (5th) drops 3.5kgs and the 16-NONCONFORMIST (2nd) a whopping 7.5kgs. The Herbert Power isnít normally as good a guide, but the 4-THE CHOSEN ONE (2nd) drops 5kgs and the 10-DELPHI drops 3.5 kgs and actually prefer the (4) out of that race. From the Metropolitan the 12-MONTEFELIA (1st) drops 3.5 kgs, the 14-SHEíS IDEEL (9th) drops 3kgs, the 18-CHARMS STAR (7th) stays at the same weight, the 19-GREAT HOUSE (5th) drops 2kgs, and the 12-MONTEFELIA is the best out of these. No Caulfield Cup winner has come through the Coogny for quite some time (even allowing for when it was run on the same day and a bit difficult to do).
The speed here looks only moderate and doubt they will run along here, especially with the scratching of the (8), 1-HOMESMAN the likely leader, from the 2-INCENTIVISE, 10-DELPHI crossing from outside barriers, the sitting handy and maybe the 7-PERSAN and 11-MASTER OF WINE more forward today. They will almost certainly spread on the home turn opening up plenty of gaps for those behind to dart through into the race.
Really on form the 2-INCENTIVISE should win this, but the predicted rain, heavy track and wider ground likely to be better late in the day really evens out this field and brings him back to the pack. On a dry track he would be a clear top pick and likely winner, on a wet track think it is worth considering others whilst keeping him safe as he might just be that good regardless. Actually quite keen on the 4-THE CHOSEN ONE today, form this time in has been excellent, placed in this race last year, ran on really well here last week, gets a good weight drop and handles wet ground, and suited swooping late down the middle to outside and think he is set up to finally win one of these this year without the internationals around. Definitely wary of the 2-INCENTIVISE and he is the main danger, and suspect the money will come for the Sydney 4YO mare 12-MONTEFELIA in winning form and third pick and she might be the one darting through a gap in the straight into the finish. Respect for the 10-DELPHI and to be honest not quite sure what to do with the 16-NONCONFORMIST whose form is great just the wet track 2400M a query (but does have no weight). Best rough chance is the actually the emergency 19-GREAT HOUSE as the tough fit wet track stayer now he is in the field, and for wide exotics would be considering the 1-HOMESMAN and 7-PERSAN . Betting plan is to back the top pick each way and aim for some quinellas and trifectas around the top three chances winning.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 6-GUNSTOCK
FIRST FOUR: Race 5: 6 / 4,5 / 1,4,5,12,13 / 1,2,3,4,5,9,12,13 x $7 = 14.53%
FIRST FOUR: Race 5: 6 / 1,4,5,12,13 / 4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5,9,12,13 x $7 = 14.53%
This one looks the one to beat in the Caulfield Classic, he was well backed to win impressively first up and then absolutely smashed into ridiculous odds of $2 last start at Flemington when dropped too far back and came hard down the middle of the track and just missed. Does indicate stable and punters have an opinion of him though, but goodness knows where all this money comes from. Fitter for the two runs in and he should have plenty of improvement to come, and should be able to settle first half of the field today and run on which should be the racing pattern. Note he is unknown on seriously wet ground, and that may keep his odds around the $3 mark today. Backing a horse straight out at $3 is a bit boring, so instead letís try and sculpt a value First Four around him winning and the main dangers placing, being the improving 4-TIZ MAGIC and the proven wet tracker the 5-SAINT TROPEZ who dropped too far back on a leaderís track at Flemington last start and worked home well and looks the wrong odds at $27.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 8-TIZ MY BAY $6 EW
We are up against a spruik short priced favourite in this race, the 10-KAPALUA SUNSET who demolished them at her maiden win, but pretty confident that this one runs a race and gives this a shake. Fitter for the three runs this time in, has made good ground each time, and was hopelessly unlucky last start when ran up behind runners about 200M out trying to run into the race and hit a wall, had to switch across the back of a few of them and still made very good ground to the line. Definitely should have finished a lot closer and the winner there ran a good race here in the Thousand Guineas on Weds. Step up in distance suits, can sit wide and hopefully more forward today and be finishing on strongly down the middle of the track at around $14 and suspect she shorten and probably be second favourite come race time.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-JUSTACANTA $5 EW
Straight out wet tracker over from NZ who was impressive coming off a strong speed to win at Flemington last start, and poked up nicely on the rails at Sandown the start before, which wasnít the best going. Seems to be racing in career best form, the strong speed here will suit and another who will be finishing on strongly down the middle of the track. Scratched from a firm track Listed race here last week to be saved for this Group 2 race which is worth double the prize-money and that is a very positive sign. Totally loves it wet, so each way at around $9 and another we expect to shorten when everyone gets up in the morning and sees the puddles on the nature strip and how soggy the cat is.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-BLESS HER $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 2,6,12,13,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
Talented wet-track sprinter who has measured up to higher grades before, and resumed with an excellent run 1st up at Sandown when she flew home late carrying a big weight on an unsuitable dry track. She hit a purple patch of firm mid-winter last year and rapidly went through her grades, and hasnít quite got back to that form since, but last run suggested she might be back to her best. Loves it wet, excellent track and distance stats and drawn middle to finish hard down the middle of the track at around $7. This is a very open race though with a big field, so plenty of value in a wide box quinella with the Sydney visitor the 2-VARDA, and some roughies like the 12-LASHES who has had a few barriers trials, handles it wet and might jump and run to the lead here, the classy 13-RAINBIEL who has been racing extremely well, and even the roughie 16-BUTTON EXPRESS at $91 who handles it wet, fitter for the two runs in and zoomed through along the rails from last late last start at MV to just miss.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 4-THE CHOSEN ONE $6 EW
Proven stayer at this level and finally gets a chance to score a major Cup with no internationals around this year after a Caulfield Cup 3rd, a Sydney Cup 2nd, and a Melbourne Cup 4th. Seems to be going better than previous years, run last week was excellent, and suited finishing strongly into the race down the middle of the track or wider and should handle a wet track. Looks a better each way bet at $13 than backing the favourite at short odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 8-GENERAL BEAU $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 8-GENERAL BEAU, 10-CURRAN, 6-HEíS A BALTER boxed x $6 = 100%
Going to be a very messy last race on a chopped up track as they dash over the 1000M and there is a heap of speed here and quite a few leaders. So want to be on something dropping back and taking a sit and they proved here two starts ago with the 8-GENERAL BEAU how good he is when ridden like that. No wet track form though, so just taking on trust at around $11 each way but that seems pretty good odds considering how good his form is, his Caulfield record and that he is back to the suitable 1000M here. Back each way and box up a quinella on those who will take a sit and run on late being the talented 10-CURRAN and winning streaker 6-HEíS A BALTER.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 13-TRODAIRE $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 13-TRODAIRE#5-SEINERS EXPRESS, 10-EAGLES CRAG x $4 =200%
We have a short priced favourite in the first race, but think we definitely want to be on the horse that finished second to him last start and the odds just look wrong about this one so maybe get on now. At the bottom of the weights, getting 6 kgs off most of these on a very wet track, and with really good heavy track form. He dropped back to last and ran on really well behind the (10) last start and meets him a nice 2.5kgs better off. There really shouldnít be the price difference between them with one $18 and one $2. So a confident roughie bet to start the day and anchor in a quinella with the favourite the 10-EAGLES CRAG and the consistent strong finishing 5-SEINERS EXPRESS who wasnít suited on a leaderís track last start at Flemington when finished on well.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 6-AIDENSFIELD $3 EW
We tipped and back this one quite a few times last year and then dropped off as we realised she was often around the money but simply wasnít winning. The key to her though is that she needs a soft track (and the wetter the better) which she finally gets today. She has been consistently around the placings this preparation, has good track and distance stats, and she can box seat outside the speed here and make her own luck. Think the rain will make all the difference today and expect her to do something at around $20 as a very nice rough bet.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 1-ZOUTORI at round $3.60
Horse we normally follow and his two runs this time in have been pretty good, and he is suited under this weight scale. But he is up to the 1400M after being kept as a straight track 1200M horse for so long, and we simply donít think he handles wet ground. On a dry track he would probably win this, but happy to risk him on a wetter track than he has ever seen before when he has disappointed on wet ground before. To be honest just expecting him to be scratched but letís see.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a Freedom Day all you can eat buffet with bonus haircut.
CAULFIELD CUP TRIFECTA: Race 9: 2,4 / 2,4,10,12,19/ 1,2,4,7,10,12,17,19 x $5 = 10.4%
Letís go for glory and try and snare the Caulfield Cup trifecta. Whilst the favourite 2-INCENTIVISE will be hard to beat, we think the 4-THE CHOSEN ONE will give this race a shake, and along with the 10-DELPHI and 12-MONTEFELIA suspect these four will fight out the finish. Now that the emergency and best rough 19-GREAT HOUSE is into the field there is a chance of a big exotic dividends if he can get into the finish, and go wide for third with some of the other rough place chances like the 1-HOMESMAN and 7-PERSAN. Should the favourite flop this dividend blows out considerably.
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,3,4,6 / 2,6,12,13,16,18 / 2,4 / 6,8,9,10 x $20 = 10.41%
Super difficult quaddie here but itís also going to pay if you can land it correctly. The Group mares races are normally where horses hold their form, so just kick off with the 6-AIDENSFIELD, 1-KAHMA LASS, 3-NIMALEE, but wary of the classy 4-CHAILLOT. Go as wide as possible in the second leg and hope to score a roughie such as the 12-LASHES, 16-BUTTONíS EXPRESS, 18-SMOKINí VAL. Which means we actually need to go narrow in the Caulfield Cup on just the top two chances 4-THE CHOSEN ONE, 2-INCENTIVISE so we can come home on a few runners in a pretty tricky last race. Sure to pay well especially if you can find a value winner in the second leg.
Race 1: 13-TRODAIRE, 5-SEINERS EXPRESS, 10-EAGLES CRAG
Race 2: 1-VIANELLO, 5-GAME LEGEND, 2-MORIOKA
Race 3: 4-SANDY PRINCE, 3-EXTREME FLIGHT, 6-CHEERFUL LEGEND
Race 4: 8-TIZ MY BAY, 10-KAPALUA SUNSET, 3-STALKING
Race 5: 6-GUNSTOCK, 4-TIZ MAGIC, 5-SAINT TROPEZ
Race 6: 4-JUSTACANTA, 8-BUFFALO RIVER, 10-KING MANGUS
Race 7: 6-AIDENSFIELD, 1-KAHMA LASS, 3-NIMALEE
Race 8: 6-BLESS HER, 13-RAINBIEL, 12-LASHES
Race 9: 4-THE CHOSEN ONE, 2-INCENTIVISE, 12-MONTEFELIA
Race 10: 8-GENERAL BEAU, 10-CURRAN, 6-HEíS A BALTER