Mild weather heading into the weekend off fine and sunny weather mid-week and most importantly there isn’t that much rain forecast. This track is likely to come up quite firm again and we got upgrades to a GOOD(3) on Guineas Day last week and also Weds mid-week, but it’s not forecast to be quite as sunny for Caulfield Cup day. Suspect they are going to put some extra water on the track here. Rail goes back in to OUT 3M today after TRUE last week and OUT 12M mid-week. Last Saturday there was an advantage to be on-speed and inside barriers, but they could still run on and get into the finish and really the track race pretty fairly. We should get the same today, maybe a slight advantage to be on-speed early but they should be winning off the rails later in the day as the track wears.
Been a good week for the tips with a nice profit on some quinellas last weekend and some good tips, but poor betting choices mid-week (that almost came off). This looks like a favourites day and will be treading lightly, good chance the top 1-2 in the market wins most of the races today so mainly straight out win bets today and those who are brave and equal parts foolish can tempt fate and take win multis.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN Race 2: 7-ARABIAN PRINCE $4 WIN
The 3YO stayers have been a pretty even bunch this time in, but this one looks to have the most improvement to come off only one run this time in. Was hitting the line really strongly at Flemington behind against many of these, and should have plenty of fitness improvement to come. Just needs a solid tempo here to make it a solid staying contest and allow him to run on, but if it is he should go pretty close at around $4 straight out.
BEST WIN Race 10: 5-ABOUNDING $4 WIN
Basically she just deserves a win this time in. Been right in the finish of every mares race this time in and all the runs have been pretty much identical – she has been running into the finish in restricted room and only just missing. She just needs to get a clear crack at them and she should win this. Back straight out at around $3.20.
BEST EACH WAY Race 1: 3-ICARIAN DREAM $4 EW, QUINELLA 3-ICARIAN DREAM#5,6,8,10 x $2 = 50%
Having a bet in Race 1 (apologies for those who like to sleep in). This one made good ground late down the straight first-up and then was building into the finish at MV when had nowhere to go on the line. Out to the 1400M for the first time, but racing like the distance should suit and there should be a decent speed here. Each way at around $8 and anchor in a nice quinella with the favourite 5-BACASH leading, the roughie 8-LOFTY THOUGHTS who looks to have some ability and might step up out in distance here and the 6-WISE INLAW the other horse on-speed.
BEST EACH WAY Race 5: 2-JASMIN ROUGE $4 EW, QUINELLA 2,9,11,12 boxed x $3 = 50%
This one caused an upset here last November at long odds in a Group 3 race and has been taken along very slowly with only the one run since, a slashing run down the straight earlier this year when she was held up for runs and flashed home late. Some quiet jump outs leading into this, this is a very even field but she is right in the market today having started long odds her last two starts. She might actually be pretty good. Will need the speed on but she should be flashing home late at around $8 each-way. Box up a value quinella with the 12-AKAYSHA who is racing extremely well but may need luck dropping back from an inside barrier, the consistent 11-SUN SETTING on-speed and the improving 9-STOKKE.
BEST EACH WAY Race 6: 1-REY MAGNERIO $4 EW
An old favourite, but he is great fresh and on firm tracks so happy to back him even though he is top weight and giving the field some weight today. He needs speed on which he looks to get here, and jump outs leading in have been very soft and he looks ready to do something today. Looks a pretty reliable each way bet at around $7 and watch for him flying home late here.
BEST ROUGH Race 7: 9-ETHEREUM GIRL $2 EW
Showed a fair bit of ability over in Adelaide in her first preparation, and then she fought on really well at Sandown when on-speed and it was a bunched finish and they were swooping from everywhere, but she was right in the photo finish at the line and fought out the race strongly. Fitter for that run, meets a few from that race 2kgs better off on weights and likely to go forward here again in a race with little speed and she may prove hard to run down. Good rough chance at around $25.
BEST ROUGH Race 9: 10-DEAKIN $2 EW
Really warming to this one in the Caulfield Cup, he hasn’t properly got into the finish yet this spring, but he is building towards something and has been given a classic Cups preparation. Run in the Turnbull was excellent when you could see he wanted to wind up into the finish and was trying really hard. Good barrier, will sit just behind the speed and showed good staying promise earlier in the year. Likely to get the run of the race here and suspect he might get backed as the obvious value chance. Something each-way at around $18.
LAY OF THE DAY Race 6: 7 ZEALOUSLY at around $2.50
Coming off good Sydney form, but likes to lead and likely to get a bit of pressure from a few others in front here. Good win last start, but up to Group 2 level now and seems seriously short odds here in a competitive sprint field. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a yearly pass for the complimentary Caulfield Buggy.
CAULFIELD CUP TRIFECTA Race 9: 15,16 / 6,10,14,15,16 / 1,6,9,10,14,15,16,17 x $5 = 10.42%
As explained in the feature race preview lets take a wide trifecta in the Caulfield Cup with the top two picks to win and some value chances to fill the placings.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,3,9,12 / 2,6,9 / 1,6,10,14,15,16,17 / 1,5 x $20 =11.9%
Looks a pretty straight forward quaddie if we can find the Caulfield Cup winner, will need to find something out of the ordinary in the other legs to push up the dividend though.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 9 CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1
Much talk about the Caulfield Cup being mediocre and struggling to capture the imagination of punters and even we have to agree there isn’t much excitement about this years field. A smattering of internationals that we know nothing about and have little care for, and long tail of mediocre well exposed stayers with one rising star in the favourite 15-HALF YOURS.
Form notes from previous winners:
- well exposed that the Turnbull Stakes is the best form lead-in for this race, and often the best run out of the Turnbull will win the Caulfield Cup.
- fit and in form is crucial for a feature Group 1, out of the last 30 years, 7 winners won their lead up run, and 15 have finished in the top 3 in their lead up run (and that is not counting the 6 international winners in the denominator). That stat alone chops the chances to just a few in this years field.
- 6 international runners have won (4 European, 2 Japanese), although the Japanese have had far fewer runners. Interestingly nearly all of these have started $10 or better odds, so its not like the betting market is a good guide to the chances of these international runners.
- winning barriers are well spread, including 7 winners from barriers 13+ so barriers aren’t as important here as they were in the Caulfield Guineas last week.
The speed here should only be even, the 9-BANKERS CHOICE is likely to go forward from an outside barrier and the 18-PLYMOUTH likely to follow him across, inside them the 13-RIVERS OF STARS and 8-ADELAIDE RIVER likely to push forward and these should be the first four in running. The 10-DEAKIN is going to get a good sit in behind these. None of these are likely to really run them along though, so look for horses sitting just behind these who can sprint quickly on the turn and pinch a break into the straight.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-VAUBAN is infamous for sucking punters in when well backed as an international in both the 2023 and 2024 Melbourne Cups. Has redeemed himself with a win as a local import since then, but form continues to be a little patchy. Building up to staying trips this time in and he was not far off the finish in limited room in the Metropolitan. Meets the (16) 2.5 kgs better off for last start narrow defeat. Maybe keep an eye on the market for this one, suspect the money may come once again. Drawn wide probably suits as he can roll into the race in clear room, but does have to give 4kgs or more to over half the field here and not sure he is going well enough for that. Rough chance.
2-PRESAGE NOCTURNE is the first of the international runners we have to try and get our head around as a total unknown and go scrounging You Tube for video replays of. Showed he could handle big fields earlier on in his career, last four starts have all been over 3000M which indicates this is more a Melbourne Cup warm up run. Not sure a sit sprint Caulfield Cup will suit this one and betting market is showing little interest. Always worth throwing one or two random internationals into wider trifectas to add some value, but hard to push for this one as a betting prospect on what we know (which isn’t very much). No.
3-MIDDLE EARTH kicked off his Australian campaign with a solid win at Flemington earlier this year and went around well supported in an Australian Cup, but not really sure he has done that much since then. Slowly building up this preparation, really good run first-up running on strongly when widest in the straight, and even efforts after that. Drawn inside, likely to get caught up back in the field here and not sure he has the turn of foot to make runs through the field. Well in the betting market, but suspect he is a Flemington horse and not sure a sit sprint Caulfield Cup is going to suit him. This is one we are happy to risk and seems poor value on recent form. Risking.
4-MEYDAAN is well in the betting market, but hasn’t won in his last 9 starts now. Is he the first Caulfield or Melbourne Cup runner to come off a synthetic run? Drawn inside in a stop start Caulfield Cup may be an issue here, prefer these types out and rolling in clear room. Keep an eye on the betting market, but generally the markets haven’t been able to get the international chances right, so what chance do we have! Think if we are going to back an overseas runner prefer something at longer odds. Happy to risk.
5-ABSURDE is at least well exposed in Australia having run two pretty good races in the Melbourne Cup in 2023 and 2024. Inside barrier is a major issue here, international horse likely to drop well back in a big field and medium tempo, and doubt this one has the turn of foot to take the gaps in the straight. Getting a clear run into the race he would be a good value place chance. He will probably finish off well and look to be heading well into a Melbourne Cup. Passing.
6-LAND LEGEND is fitter for the four runs this time in and he is probably ready to do something. His run in the Underwood Stakes here two starts back was really good and he was chasing hard late. Run in this race last year was excellent, he went to run into the race before the turn, but the winner had pinched the race and probably wasn’t suited on the soft track. Firm track suits this one. He was racing in much better form last year, coming off a Metropolitan win. Likely to drop back here from an outside barrier and try to come into the race down the middle of the track. Underwood run is good enough for this and he was competitive in this race last year means he is a place chance again this year. Place.
7-ZARDOZI is an enigma wrapped in Godolphin Blue. Has been racing at the top level since VRC Oaks win in 2023, but she has not won now for her last 17 starts. She has put in some great runs though; 4th in this race last year, 5th in the Empire Rose and 4th in the Melbourne Cup when she loomed nicely into the race. Her first up run this time in was very promising, making good ground late, but her last two runs have only been fair. Normally she takes a few runs to find form each time, but pretty sure she prefers some give in the ground (won 1 from 20 good tracks, 4 from 7 soft tracks) and this track is likely to come up quite firm again. Her best form puts her right in this race, but not sure she is racing the best at the moment. Rough place only.
8-ADELAIDE RIVER ran a pretty good race in the Turnbull sticking on well on-speed, even though well held. Fitter for the four runs in and competitive on-speed in Sydney the start before that. Import who has taken a few preparations to find some form, but he seems to be getting into the swing of things now. His run in the Turnbull probably isn’t that much different to last years Caulfield Cup winner – leading and fading but not disgraced. Likely to go forward and this is the first time he has got out to 2400M in Australia. Hard to get excited about his form, but he is a pretty good place chance rolling on-speed whilst others find trouble back in the field. Place.
9-BANKERS CHOICE seems to have been around forever, but continues to pop up now and then under the right conditions. Seems to save his best form for when he can lead, and he is likely to push hard early to go forward here from an outside barrier. Went to the lead in the Mornington Cup and fought out the finish well and was giving his rivals 6kgs there carrying 60kgs. Should have improvement to come off two runs back from a break. Interesting he has yet to miss a place in 5 starts over 2400M. Would need a soft lead and an on-pace bias to be a serious chance here, but neither of those things are impossible. At $126 he probably runs a decent race here and runs in the top six or so, so worth throwing this one in wider trifectas. Rough place.
10-DEAKIN is another import who seems to have got used to Australian racing pretty quickly and shown a fair bit of potential. Looked a stayer with some potential in earlier preparations and has been given a nice slow Cups style preparation this time in. Fitter for the three runs in and run in the Turnbull was pretty good, settling on-speed and trying to run into the finish. Really liked that run, you could see he wanted to pull out and run into the race. Not sure he has shown enough this time in to get excited about, but from a nice barrier he can go forward here and get a nice run behind the speed and think he is just about ready to do something this spring. Definite rough chance and really warming to this one whilst doing the form.
11-GOLDEN SNAP is the Japanese runner and always worth paying attention to these, they seem to love the firm tracks over spring and have the turn of foot to be a factor. Jockey would have to be an absolute genius to win a Caulfield Cup from barrier 18 at his first ride at the track. Has been racing over further and he may be more focussed on the Melbourne Cup. Honestly – no idea!
12-REVELARE is lightly raced with an excellent win strike rate and those are always big pluses in a Caulfield Cup. Been speeding through spring with an eye on the Melbourne Cup and earned a start in that race with Flemington win two starts back. His wins have been very workman like as he goes through the grades, there has been a lot of talk about his ability, but do wonder what level he can get to. Disappointing in a truly run staying race last start is a concern, but always forgive them one bad run. Fewer convictions than many of these, but prefer to see how he lines up against these after disappointing last start. Passing today.
13-RIVER OF STARS is an import in his second Australia preparation and was good on-speed in the Sydney Cup this year. Hard to get enthused about his three runs this time in down in Melbourne, they have not been suitable races either WFA or too short, but even so there isn’t much to get interested in there. Step up in distance will suit, and nice inside barrier and likely to go forward and either lead or share the lead here. Can’t have on current form though. No
14-BIRDMAN has been consistently around the finish in two Sydney campaigns since coming to Australia. Has shown he has a good turn of foot too which is handy in a Caulfield Cup. Been building nicely this campaign and fought out tough two horse finish two starts back against the (8) who was then well held in the Turnbull, so we can line the form up through that. Got into a bad position last start from a wide barrier and had to come widest down the straight and whacked away ok. He is best off an even tempo with a good sit and sprinting through and he may get a race to suit here. Just get a feeling he is going to be in the finish today. Rough chance.
15-HALF YOURS is all the rage this spring and fair enough too. Big wraps on him going into the Naturalism Stakes and he didn’t disappoint, railing through and dashing away from them and showed he was just as good on a firm track. Best run from the Turnbull finishing on strongly out wide for 4th and best run from that race often wins the Caulfield Cup. Drops 3.5 kgs off that good run here. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, streaked away from them to win in QLD over winter and has shown he can handle inside barriers and take inside runs with a turn of foot. These in-form rising stayers with no weight are very hard to beat in this race, but his odds are starting to get extremely short at under $3 in an 18 horse field. Top chance and one to beat.
16-ROYAL SUPREMACY is a lightly raced stayer on the way up with an excellent win strike rate. Import who has largely been in work since May with only a few freshens, so that’s a pretty long preparation. Big plus with this one is that he has drawn well and can race handy, in fact he is probably going to get a perfect ride into the race behind the few speed horses. Jockey is attempting to win the Caulfield Cup after the Melbourne Cup (that’s a reverse Cups Double). Has been strong to the line last two starts and hard fit, finished top two last four starts and seems to be flying. Ticks a lot of boxes here. Strong chance.
17-VALIANT KING took several preparations and 11 starts to put his first Australian win on the board, and boy did it sting at $60 in the first leg of the Flemington quaddie. That was a big track, strong speed and strong staying contest, but he was close to last on the home turn, giving the leader a 20 length head start and he won going away from them – extraordinary strong win and we need to pay attention to that one. He actually ran a good race here in this race in 2023, held up for runs and strong to the line, and was very wide here last year in the Caulfield Cup. Rare for a horse to win a feature Cup at their third try. Drawn out here means he will drop back to last off an even tempo only, and its pretty tough to win a Caulfield Cup like that. Keep this one in consideration though, he is one of the very few with winning form going into this race and that’s enough to keep him in the mix. Rough.
18-PLYMOUTH has always shown some potential but hasn’t quite put a good win on the board. Fitter for the 4 runs in and he was right in the finish in the Herbert Power over this distance last week, but that race hasn’t generally been a good guide to this race for some time now. Tends to get perfect runs in most races, he loves to jump and settle handy, and he is likely to go forward from a very wide barrier here. Given the good runs he gets though, he doesn’t really put races away and think a solid 2400M here up in class probably finds him out. Happy to risk.
Summary:
There doesn’t seem to be many winning chances here and hard to go past the favourite the 15-HALF YOURS, we have had a few of these rising in-form stayers win the Caulfield Cup in the last few years and he looks to fit the bill. Particularly like that he has shown he has the turn of foot to take gaps and that is important for a Caulfield Cup. Main question now is what is a reasonable price, and think you would want over $3 and closer to $3.50 to think seriously about backing him, he is coming off a last start fourth. The 16-ROYAL SUPREMACY seems the most obvious danger and looks to get the run of the race here on-speed and has been really strong in his finish last two starts, with jockey looking to complete the reverse Cups Double. After doing the form we are really starting to warm to the 10-DEAKIN as the value runner here, showed good staying potential early in the year and has been given a quiet traditional Cups preparation and the Turnbull Stakes run was pretty good. Good barrier and can box seat behind the speed here and looks ready to do something this spring. Outside of these, quite like the way the 14-BIRDMAN has been going this time in, and think he can sprint into the race here off a moderate tempo, just question of if he has the class to win this race. The 6-LAND LEGEND the other roughie to consider on a dry track off a good run in this race last year.
From a punting point of view the top pick and favourite is too short to back, and suspect he is going to get into silly odds. So will probably back the third pick each way and then take a wide trifecta with the top two chances to win and the horses above to run second and wide for third.
Race 1: 3-ICARIAN DREAM, 5-BACASH, 8-LOFTY THOUGHTS
Race 2: 7-ARABIAN PRINCE, 5-ENGINE OF WAR, 2-MIEWA
Race 3: 3-JUST A JOURNEY, 8-GRAND OMAHA, 9-MORISU OJO
Race 4: 2-TENTYRIS, 1-MCGAW, 6-RIPLEY
Race 5: 2-JASMIN ROUGE, 12-AKAYSHA, 11-SUN SETTING
Race 6: 1-REY MAGNERIO, 3-ARABIAN SUMMER, 9-RICH DOTTIE
Race 7: 3-OLE DANCER, 1-APOCALYPTIC, 9-ETHEREUM GIRL
Race 8: 6-MEDIA WORLD, 2-PRIVATE EYE, 9-PAYLINE
Race 9: 15-HALF YOURS, 16-ROYAL SUPREMACY, 10-DEAKIN
Race 10: 5-ABOUNDING, 1-MIRAVAL ROSE, 7-BOSSY NIC
