Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for the 150th Caulfield Cup 17/10/2026.
Fine and sunny weather heading into the weekend and this track is likely to get quite firm. Track raced sensationally on Caulfield Guineas Day and they could win leading or running on. Recent rail movements for Caulfield Cup week are TRUE on the first day, rail well out mid-week and back in on Caulfield Cup day and that pattern seems to be working well. So even racing, probably tending towards those running on later in the day as the track begins to wear out.
We have had an extremely ordinary spring with the tips, but the Lay (aka Pays) of the Day have been going gang-busters with the last four all winning. So basically it doesn’t matter what we pick this week – it is a dead-set certainty. Be careful doing the form for this meeting, there are a lot of horses coming off poor runs on the really heavy track on Turnbull Stakes day, but this is a firm track and a very different scenario so just ignore those last start flops. Caulfield Cup Day is often a favourites day and we have quite a few even money favourites going around today and they do look pretty hard to beat. Maybe not the best punting day for those wanting $10 each way winners, we struggled to find many of those today.
For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 7-BOYS BOUNCE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4,7,13,15 boxed x $3 = 50%
The most open race of the day and there are plenty of chances in this race and a big even field. This one was good winning as a short priced favourite at Sandown two starts ago when leading all the way, then was right in the finish at Group 2 level over 1600M until the last 50M or so. Drawn well, will go forward here and drop back in distance is probably a plus as he was fading late last start. Was SCR from a BM70 here on Wednesday to be kept for this Listed race which is a positive sign. Each way at around $20 and a nice value box quinella on the consistent 13-I AM ARIA as the other on-speed horse, the classy 4-STAR OF MACEDON flashing home and the roughie 15-AUTUMN LOVER who has been scratched a few times recently but her last run at Flemington was excellent.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-OAK HILL $4 EW
QUINELLA Race 6: 4-OAK HILL#5,6,7,9 x $2 = 50%
Consistent type who does tend to flash home a lot, but he still has an excellent win strike rate. This race looks to set up perfectly here, two good jump outs coming into this, firm track suits, 1st up record is excellent and so are his track and distance stats. Most importantly even though he does tend to drop back there is a stack of speed here and that will set it up for him to run on late. Each way at around $7 and anchor in a quinella with the consistent 6-PALLATON who loves Caulfield, the 5-BEV’S NINE who was good here last start and will be improved, the 7-DON’T HOPE DO who loves to roll on-speed on dry tracks and may have gone too hard last start, and super roughie the 9-ALWAYS ENUFF only because we tipped him last start when he won at long odds, so need to go again just in case.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-ROYAL SUPREMACY $4 EW
Having something each way on the top pick in the Caulfield Cup, who comes into this with winning form, was quite unlucky in this race last year when ran 5th, and looks to get a perfect sit on-speed from a good barrier. More details in the feature race preview below. Each way at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 10-TERILEE $4 EW
Up against a short priced favourite in the last race who is pretty talented in the 12-CONCORD CONNIE, but this one hit the line just as well as her last start at Mornington and she is going to go around four times the odds today. Jockey Pike loves riding backmarkers and she will be suited up in distance here and they should be able to run on by the last race. Each way at around $12.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 2,5,6,8,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
Wide open 3YO staying race as always and the favourites here will be hard to beat but there are two roughies we are interested in here in the 12-OCEANS FOUROSEVEN at $35 who was strong leading and wining two starts back before a Turnbull Stakes day heavy track flop and the 6-NOTIFIED at $61 who showed potential first time in and finally get a dry track and distance this time in. Plenty coming off good maidens run in this and likely something at odds gets into the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 11-POCKETFULLOFCASH $1.50 EW
Taking this one largely on spec, based on the Flemington jump out when he split the extremely smart THE NEXT EPISODE and NATURAL FLING and went with that one to the line. Led and did absolutely nothing on the heavy track last start, but let’s forgive that run and see if he can run a race at odds today leading at around $31. Rough.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 2-CAVALRY GIRL at around $2.50
Drum roll please…..Going for five Lays of the Day winning in a row and we have struck a day where favourites are likely to win. This one has been flying over the last few months, but that has mainly been on soft tracks and she is going to strike a very firm track today. Quite a lot of speed here and she may get caught up in a speed battle and prefer to go with something fresher running on late in this race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a Caulfield trackside apartment
CAULIELD CUP TRIFECTA: Race 9: 1,9 / 1,2,4,9,11,16,18 / 1,2,4,9,11,16,18 = 8.33%
Traditional to have a crack at the Caulfield Cup trifecta with the top two selections to win 1-HALF YOURS, 9-ROYAL SUPREMACY and the value place chances in the 4-KINGSWOOD, 11-ASTERIX, 19-KINGS VALLEY.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 3,4,9,13 / 1,7,8,11,12 / 1,2,9 / 5,10,12 x $20 = 11.11%
Looks a pretty straight forward quaddie and the most likely leg for value is the second leg so go wider there. Hard to see anything outside the first few in the market winning the last race so there is also the chance to put a few extra runners in the Caulfield Cup.
Feature Race Preview: Race 8: CAULFIELD CUP 2400M GROUP 1
The Caulfield Cup is always a great even betting race with plenty of value chances and a great race to dive into the detailed form on. The important stats over the last 25 years; only 5 winners have carried 56kgs or more (but there probably haven’t been that many runners with those weights), barriers actually aren’t that important with 9 winners being barrier 10 or wider, and 10 winners have been last start winners. 4YOs have only won 1 from the last 10 Caulfield Cups (JAMEKA), even though they had won 11 out of the previous 20 Caulfield Cups prior to that, so they just don’t seem to be going on as well recently from their 3YO seasons.
It always pays to be in winning form coming into a feature Group 1, but the Turnbull Stakes is always the form race to look at – 12 horses since 2000 have come through that race. Best run out of the Turnbull was almost certainly the winner the 2-COSMIC CRUSADER. Outside barriers aren’t that big a drawback and often horses who go forward early can often get across and run big races and be in the finish. The pressure often goes on before the turn and always watch out for horses sliding through the pack and cutting the corner whilst the others are going wide to try and run into the race. Most importantly looking for horses who are in form and who are ready to win today rather than run a good Melbourne Cup trial 4th or 5th.
There looks to be genuine speed here, and it is worth noting in quite a few staying races recently (including this race last year), we have had a horse run along out to a big lead for no particular reason and set a genuine tempo (and usually an ex-international stayer). The two internationals this year can both go forward, the 7-ENFJAAR (has to push forward from inside barrier) and the 10-WINE DARK SEA (can roll forward from outside barrier and take his time), with the 9-ROYAL SUPREMACY likely to get a perfect on-speed run. The 4-KINGSWOOD will press forward to race handy and the 3-TREASURETHE MOMENT next is running. Bit reluctant relying on overseas horses to set the speed though and good chance one of the locals will let loose, so watch for some mid-race moves here. Race totally changes if the 19-THE EUPHRATES (emerg) gets into the field as he can lead and cross the internationals and then we are looking at a very solidly run 2400M off a genuine speed.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-HALF YOURS stormed through spring last year winning both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and often horses who race well here can repeat the effort in following years. Much talked about winter campaign when well-beaten and well in the market quite a few times, with extremely quiet rides and getting too far back in the run. Plenty to like about the two runs this time in, running strongly into the finish each time and looks like a horse building to a peak performance today for a target race. Stuck on well in the Turnbull and plenty of improvement to come, but he does have to turn around the finish from the winner there. Does go up 5kgs on last years weight and form going into last year’s race was better, but he had to qualify last year to get into the field. New jockey on board and well-drawn and should be able to settle just behind the speed here. Just looks ready to do something today despite not in winning form this time in. Have to keep safe here and a genuine winning chance. Strong chance.
2-COSMIC CRUSADER is one we have totally underestimated this spring and he has stung us quite a few times which has been costly. Would be sensational for a Caulfield Cup winner to kick off their spring campaign winning a 1200M Bletchingly in July! That is totally old school Cups preparation. Form horse of the spring and he has been right in the finish every start. Turnbull Stakes win was dominant and tough when came out and ran down a tear-away leader who had kicked and looked home. Pretty solid group of horses behind him last start too so that is genuine form. Drawn out here is tricky and where does jockey Pike settle him – suspect he drops back here which means he could need some luck. Worth noting that jockey thought in the Underwood that he failed to travel comfortably on firm ground and would prefer some give in the ground – so that has to be a query here as think this track is going to get quite firm, especially later in the day. Out to 2400M for the first time too, which has to be a query, but he has been the dominant horse of the spring and those types can overcome those sort of obstacles. Strong chance here and has the class to win this – wet track he would go on top, just that firm track is a bit of a concern. Strong chance.
3-TREASURE THE MOMENT has been running hot and cold for over a year now and think a lot of punters think she is totally spent and are probably a bit surprised to see her pushing on this campaign. Burst into spring last year with a dominant Memsie win, but was then beaten at $1.50 and $1.60 her next two starts with a health set back, and somehow bounced back to run a massive race in last year’s Cox Plate. Kept to 1400M-1600M races over the Autumn and she was competitive, but form this spring has been less than inspiring. Fought on well behind PRIDE OF JENNI here two starts back, but now wondering if that was more a case of the others bursting and stopping? Fought on OK here last week, but doubt it was good enough run to win a Caulfield Cup. Was lame after the race on a firm track and backing up within a week onto another firm track. Well drawn and will go forward here. First time she has tried past 2000M since her 3YO season and prefer her over shorter distances. Punters don’t seem that interested and neither are we. No.
4-KINGSWOOD plugs away OK and was rearing to go this spring with a solid first-up win at long odds. Next two runs have been fair and at WFA and he is much better suited here back to a handicap today. Tracked the leader last start and loomed up like he was going to go straight past, but he couldn’t – then again neither could any of the any horses either. Only had one try past 2000M and that was on a heavy track so can’t read too much into that. Don’t mind the outside barrier here – horses who can roll forward from outside barriers in Caulfield Cups often run good races whilst the rest of the field drop back and knock each other over looking for runs. Probably prefers just a little bit of give in the track, but not too much. Racing well enough to be in the finish here, will go forward and make his own luck, but probably safely held at this level over 2400M. Rough place.
5-KNIGHT'S CHOICE is a bit of an enigma, being thereabouts in spring 2024 staying races and then winning the Melbourne Cup out of nowhere (14th in the Caulfield Cup that year), and he started $61, $71, $51 and $101 next preparation which is pretty darn offensive for a reigning Melbourne Cup winner. Three runs this time in and he wasn’t’ far off them second up and fascinating how he started well in the market in the Herbert Power and ran well – extremely well, coming off heels and diving right into the finish in tight room. That race hasn’t been the right form for the Caulfield Cup for some time though. Dry track is a big plus and he seems to be running into form, but he is a solid staying type and not sure the stop start Caulfield Cups are his thing. Might get a genuine tempo here to suit. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back here and suspect he will be running on well late for 5th or 6th in a good Melbourne Cup trial. Place chance if we get a genuine speed.
6-MIDDLE EARTH is another one who has been hard to follow, burst onto the scene with a great first run in Australia, and then he really didn’t measure up for a while before a great run in the Melbourne Cup last year. Finally got an Australian win on the board over the QLD winter. Has plugged away OK this time in, stepping up in distance and he is probably just about ready to show some form – but you want horses already in form for these feature Group 1s. Suspect he is a big track and solid staying contest sort of horse and not suited to a hustle and bustle Caulfield Cup and he did little in this race last year. Stable can do anything though. Passing.
7-ENFJAAR is an international raider and really the record of the European staying horses first start in Australia into the race is pretty ordinary (the Japanese have a great record though). And we still don’t have easy access to videos to watch these overseas hoses – decades after they starting coming out. Big plus with this one is that he can race handy or lead, and it was a pretty solid staying effort to lead and win the Goodwood. Barrier 1 and question is can he lead under Australia conditions with a big field wanting to come across from outside barriers and get a position? Pressure will be on early. He looks to need to roll and maintain his stride if he gets crossed here and ends up inside a big field, doubt he will be able to take the gaps when called upon. Well in the market, international jockey on board having his first Caulfield Cup ride and first ride at Caulfield is a bit of an alarm bell for punters. Right run leading and solid staying tempo he can win this, but too many unknowns for us. No
8-GREEN SPACES was a dominant winner of the ATC Derby as a 3YO and it’s always a bit hit and miss which of those with 3YO staying form go on in the next season. 4YO’s haven’t been going well in this race recently, after previously being dominant and being the type of horse to look for. Form this time in has only been fair and he has drawn wide here so likely to drop well back. You really want them right in the finish and fighting out the races leading into feature Group 1s, so this one isn’t of much interest until he show some form. No.
9-ROYAL SUPREMACY is ticking quite a few boxes coming into the race, in winning form as a last start winner, well drawn, races on-speed and excellent distance stats. Just the JRA Cup isn’t really a traditional lead up race for this. International jockey on board but he has ridden here a fair bit. Quite liked the last start win here with a big weight when he was well backed, rolled on-speed and it was a strong staying performance. Came into this race last year with even better form off a Metropolitan win, just blew the start which was costly so he couldn’t take up his normal on-speed position and ended up well back in the field and had to work through the pack and was hitting the line pretty well. Better get away last year and he is probably right in the finish. Had a longer and tougher preparation last year, only the two runs this time in, but think we need to pay attention to last year’s run – he is definitely up to this. Strong chance.
10-WINE DARK SEA is the other European runner and he well in the betting market, but again remember the European imports really don’t have a great record in this race. Local jockey on board. Big plus with this one is that he can race on-speed and shown in the few videos we can see that he can really extend away from them too. No issue with him going forward from a wide barrier here, plenty have done it before in the Caulfield Cup and raced well. He may be dour though and want a solid tempo but creates a lot of interest here. Chance and probably the best of the international chances.
11-ASTERIX has been thereabouts this spring without really being outstanding. Worked home well first-up and then in the finish on-speed when loomed very nicely into the race before the turn. Looked ready to go on third up, but can totally forgive a messy heavy track Turnbull flop. Excellent distance stats and suited back on firm ground. Can sit handy here too and get a good run just behind the speed. Probably found out at this level, but he isn’t far off the others coming through the Naturalism form and expect improvement back on a dry track today. Unlikely to win, but a good rough place chance for the wider exotics. Rough place.
12-SAINT GEORGE has been really consistent over the last year, but never thought we would see him going around at $8 in a Caulfield Cup. Really professional horse who normally drops out the back in his runs, but he has a great turn of foot and can run into the race at the right time and he has done that quite a few times recently. That turn of foot is really important for a Caulfield Cup. Had to carry 3.5 kgs more than the (16) here two starts back and only has to carry 0.5kgs more today so well-weighted in tihs. Another who you can totally forgive the Turnbull run – he just doesn’t handle rain affected tracks. He has struggled when he has gone past 2000M though, four runs in Australia from 2400M to 3200M and he hasn’t been anywhere near the finish in any of them – but most of them were his first Australian preparation when he wasn’t going as well. Inside barrier means he will need to settle more forward here – but he has the turn of foot to take the gaps when required. Horses don’t have to be a genuine 2400M horse to win a turn of foot Caulfield Cup, but bit concerned there are a few on-speed internationals here who may run them along and make this a solid staying contest. Going well enough to win, but prefer place. Place.
13-STARFORD is another European international runner and the outsider of that bunch. Lightly raced and looks to have a bit of a finishing burst and local jockey Neindorf has grabbed the ride which is a big plus. Drawn wide and likely to drop back here, but will be finishing strongly down the middle of the track off a strong tempo. No idea what his chances are as form is totally unknown, but not sure there are that many local wining chances. Rough.
14-SHE'S A HUSTLER has been fair this spring without really getting into the finish. Only the two runs in, and she was good hitting the line with the (1) first-up, before forgive run on a heavy track in the Turnbull. Lightly raced with excellent win strike rate and she is building to something this spring so keep an eye on her – just she hasn’t really figured in the finish last two runs so hard to get too enthused here and she is well in the market so might not be much value. Her form end of last spring was excellent. If she had been in the finish of her lead-in runs we would be strongly pushing for her today, but just get the feeling she may need one more run. Solid tempo will suit and she can chase hard from a good barrier but prefer place. Place.
15-SOUL OF SPAIN has been thereabouts in Sydney staying races without really getting over enthused. Good run in the Sydney Cup last year when he only just missed grabbing the leader and winner. Hasn’t won for over a year now and 11 starts, but most of those have been at the top level. Drawn out and will drop back in the run and probably work home OK and not be beaten that far, but unlikely to be in the finish. Passing.
16-ZAHRANN has shown to be very promising in his two Australian preparations, and hit the line extremely well first-up this time in, before a really impressive win in the Naturalism – he dropped on them there and he was running away from them late and was really extending. Never a factor in the heavy track Turnbull and would have loved to see how he would have gone on a dry track. Good barrier and he is probably going to get shuffled back here inside runners and have to come through the field, but he seems to have the turn of foot to do just that. Well in the betting market so looks like punters are forgiving the last start. Does meet the others from the Naturalism on worse weight terms, but often horses on the improve can overcome that. He looks to be a lightly raced horse on the way up and often those are the types to follow in the Caulfield Cup. Have to respect that win and winning form this time in. Chance, but he might need the gaps to come at the right time.
17-OHOPE WINS won the ATC Oaks as a staying 3YO and always the question how these types go on the next season. She has been ridden very quietly out the back of the field three starts this time in and really hasn’t shown much to get enthused about. Light-weight and she is probably ready to do something now she is up in distance to 2400M, but drawn wide and racing pattern is to drop back and it’s hard enough to win a Caulfield Cup from last as it is when you are in top form, let alone off mediocre form. Seems well under the odds at $20 based on form this time in. No.
18-KINGS VALLEY qualified for this race with Mornington Cup win back earlier in the year so has been able to take it easy this spring. Solid four runs into this race, which we like and he should be hard and fit and ready to peak today. Ran into the race nicely in the Naturalism showing he was ready to do something this spring and like all the others think we just forget the heavy track Turnbull run. Naturalism run was really good and he came from well back there and will have plenty of improvement to come – but does meet some of the others from that race 3-4 kgs worse off here. Apprentice on board would be a great story. Dry track suits, Caulfield form isn’t the best and still not totally convinced he is proven over 2400M. But nice light weight and like the way he is going so think he is the best rough chance in this and definitely one to put into your wider trifectas. Rough.
19-THE EUPHRATES (emerg) is an import who has been racing well in the Sydney staying races in his first Australian preparation. Sydney staying form is pretty solid and comes into this with a nice light weight. He is a really a key runner here, if he gets into the field (which is probably unlikely as we don’t get many scratchings in feature races on dry tracks), he will go to the lead and changes the race tempo from uncertain to genuine to fast. So the pattern of the race totally changes and he can lead and cross the two international runners. Carried a massive weight in the Metropolitan and was giving those around him in the finish 3-4 kgs. Rough chance if he gets into the field. Rough.
20-JUJA KIBO (emerg) is another unlikely to get a run, but comes into this with winning form and we don’t mind following Metropolitan horses into this race – they are often hard, fit and in winning form. Sailed past the (19) easily last start for a nice win, note he does meet that one 3kgs worse off today. Fitter for the three runs in and probably more improvement to come still. Love his 2400M stats, he has been super consistent now for several preparations over this distance. Drawn wide but will go forward. Hard to believe the Metropolitan winner hasn’t made the Caulfield Cup field? Actually quite like this one if he gets into the field, but the chances of that are pretty slim. Genuine chance.
21-POINT OF LAW (emerg) is an import in a local stable having his first Australia run so pretty much impossible to line up. Lightly raced with only 4 career starts and his last win was over 2600M which means he probably wants 3200M down under. Northern hemisphere 3YO and those types have gone well in the Melbourne Cup recently, so assume that is his target race and this is a hit out before that. Wide barrier and 18 horse field are against him, and being third emergency isn’t going to help much either. Best chance of getting a start is if one of the others stubs a toe on the Caulfield concrete. Risking.
22-MR MONACO (emerg) is another with solid winning staying form coming into this race and interesting this year that a few well performed horses have missed the field. We really like this horse as a stayer, still pretty lightly raced and good win strike rate and he has put up some really tough staying wins making long runs and he just keeps on going. Looks an ideal Flemington 3200M horse and keen to see what he can do in the Melbourne Cup this year now he is qualified. Long odds to make the field as fourth emergency, but keep an eye on what his one does this spring – he is a genuine contender and one we are following closely. Rough.
Summary:
Pretty interesting race to do the form on, and this is a very even field and most of these are a place chance at least. We don’t seem to have as much Cup Field Filler going around this year, for example horses who have previously qualified and are into the field, but have no current form this season – indeed we have a few horses in great form who couldn’t even get into the field. So basically it’s down to four winning chances, 1-HALF YOURS, 2-COSMIC CRUSADER, 9-ROYAL SUPREMACY,
16-ZAHRANN and that seems to be the four most tipsters have centred in on.
Despite not coming through traditional form lines and having an international jockey on board, we are keen on the 9-ROYAL SUPREMACY here. In winning form coming into this, excellent form over the 2400M and he was seriously unlucky in this race last year, missed the start, was in the last few in the field instead of his normal position just behind the speed and bumped and slid his way through the field chasing before the turn, to finish a pretty respectable 5th beaten 2.5L - if he was in his normal position just off the speed think he would have been right in the finish. Should get a perfect run this year and likely to be hitting the lead early in the straight and look the winner at least, just a matter if something comes out and runs him down. Taking him on trust, but the 1-HALF YOURS just looks ready to do something today as the main danger, and his preparation seems quite similar to VIEWED the year he won the Caulfield Cup after winning the Melbourne Cup. Form horse of the spring has been the 2-COSMIC CRUSADER, just query on the firm ground and where he lands in the run, but horses as good as him can overcome pretty much anything. Other main winning chance is the 16-ZAHRANN who might need some luck getting through the field. Best roughie is the 18-KINGS VALLEY who has just been warming up this spring towards his main target today. Betting plan is to back the top two picks straight out and something each-way on the roughie.
Race 1: 2-VALICE, 6-RUSSIAN ROCK, 8-KING SNITZ
Race 2: 5-YOUR COLOUR, 2-MISS WAITITI, 12-OCEANS FOUROSEVEN
Race 3: 1-GEEGEES MISTRUTH, 7-EAGLE EXPRESS, 4-THANKS GORGEOUS
Race 4: 7-BOYS BOUNCE, 13-I AM ARIA, 4-STAR OF MACEDON
Race 5: 1-PRIVATE EYE, 6-ZOU SENSATION, 5-HERE TO SHOCK
Race 6: 4-OAK HILL, 6-PALLATON, 5-BEV’S NINE
Race 7: 9-REGAL AMBITION, 4-DE ARMAS, 13-PLATINUM PEARL
Race 8: 12-OVER EXCITED, 11-POCKETFULLOFCASH, 8-ORGANISED CRIME
Race 9: 9-ROYAL SUPREMACY, 1-HALF YOURS, 2-COSMIC CRUSADER
Race 10: 10-TERILEE, 12-CONCORD CONNIE, 5-MERRIGOLD
