Exclusive offer for Turf Deli Subscribers : DEPOSIT $100 and get a $150 FREE BET

CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 11th Oct 2008

Track: DEAD (4) - Weather: Fine - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50): Fair bit of rain around early in the week, but sunny weather coming into the weekend and this track should come up perfect. Rail stays in the TRUE position as it was for the last meeting here on Underwood Stakes day, when the early races probably favoured those racing on pace, but they were coming off the rails later in the day. Traditionally, these feature meetings used to favour on pacers with the rail in the TRUE position on fresh ground. However, since the track re-development at Caulfield a few years back it races very fairly. Maybe just might favour on pacers early, but think you will find they will be running on and coming out wide later in the day. We have included detailed form for the three Group 1 races – the Yalumba, Toorak and Caulfield Guineas. Pretty tough days betting, so let’s spread it around a fair bit. RESULTS : Track races very even, they can win on pace, and horses from behind make can good ground to get into the finish in most races. Tips go just OK - betting portfolio bombs out. Just pay attention to the straight trifecta in the feature race ! BEST WIN : Race 1: 4-STRUMMING $10 WIN Been competitive in every race so far, and got the horror MV draw last start – barrier 1 – in the sprint races when the rail is out if you don’t lead your race is over. Which is what happened – was trapped on rails all the way around. Drawn to race handy and just sit off speed here and should be hard to beat. RESULTS : Sits up outside the lead and runs into it top of straight and stops dead - obviously something wrong, tails off badly. BEST EACH WAY : Race 5: 3-CASUAL PASS $7.50 EW Fitter for the 3 runs in and forgive last run under lights with big weight when wide on leader’s track. Won this race 2 years ago, and loves these small field, no speed races – may lead and dictate this race. Either way, looks a safe each way bet in small field as very consistent and 3 times winner this course and distance. RESULTS : Race gets won by outsider who takes the lead. Stops quickly on turn and pulls up with heart problems. Can we have our money back? Pretty please? BEST EACH WAY : Race 9: 14-DISTINCTIVE LASS $5 EW Yet to win past 1000M, but looks like they have taught her to settle and come from behind now. Form is very consistent, and ran on extremely well over even longer trip last start. Will probably settle back from barrier here, but they should be running on by end of day, and she rarely misses a place. RESULTS : Drops out and comes widest in straight, but doesn't really finish it off. Disappointing. Might need it weaker. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 4-VALEDICTUM $5 EW Drawn well, proven himself in this class before and solid run last start against these from outside barrier. Going to get a much better run today and looks way over the odds. RESULTS : Speaking through our empty pockets, but doubtful about the riding tactics here - drops back to last from good barrier, hooks out around whole field and finishing on pretty well to just miss a placing. Would not have won, definitely should've run a place. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more FLEXI QUAD : Races 6,7,8,9 : 1,3,4,17 / 11 / 1,3 / 2,10,14 x $5 = 20.8% 1st 3-ALAMOSA W=$9.60, 3rd 17-PILLAR OF HERCULES W=$11.80 / 1st 11-WHOBEGOTYOU W=$3.10 / 2nd 3-IMPRESSIVE EAGLE W=$5.60 / 2nd 2-BEL MER W=$5.70 Let’s go super ambitious and take a flexi quad, and the quaddie should pay pretty well today. Take our 4 pics in the first leg which includes two value chances, go one out on the up and comer and favourite in the Guineas, can narrow the 3rd leg down to two main chances, and despite the last being wide open happy to stick to the 2,10,14. Fingers crossed. RESULTS : Gave the quaddie a bit of a shake with a small outlay. 1st two legs home safe, 3rd leg should have definitely won - jockey left it far too late to come out and make run and was finishing over the top of them, and not far off last leg either. SPENT :$50 RETURN : $0 NET : $-50

The Tips: Race 1: 4-STRUMMING, 10-ZIZZ, 2-NAKU PENDA Race 2: 9-FLASH COUPE, 10-GUILD, 15-SECRET FLYER Race 3: 5-ZAVITE, 6-FAST FUTURE, 4-ANAMATO Race 4: 1-KAPHERO, 3-LUCKY SECRET, 5-GAMBLE ME Race 5: 3-CASUAL PASS, 1-POMPEII RULER, 7-GUILLOTINE Race 6: 4-VALEDICTUM, 3-ALAMOSA, 1-BON HOFFA Race 7: 11-WHOBEGOTYOU, 14-TIME THIEF, 1-VON COSTA DE HERO Race 8: 3-IMPRESSIVE EAGLE, 1-VIENNESE, 7-OLONANA Race 9: 14-DISTINCTIVE LASS, 2-BEL MER, 10-BENATAR

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 4-STRUMMING 10-ZIZZ 2nd W=$11.00 2-NAKU PENDA

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 9-FLASH COUPE 10-GUILD 2nd W=$4.10 15-SECRET FLYER SCR

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 5-ZAVITE 6-FAST FUTURE 4-ANAMATO

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 1-KAPHERO 3-LUCKY SECRET 2nd W=$2.90 5-GAMBLE ME 3rd W=$7.30

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 3-CASUAL PASS 1-POMPEII RULER 2nd W=$2.10 7-GUILLOTINE 3rd W=$5.20

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 4-VALEDICTUM 3-ALAMOSA 1st W=$9.60 1-BON HOFFA

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 11-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$3.10 14-TIME THIEF 2nd W=$11.00 1-VON COSTA DE HERO 3rd W=$12.50 QUINELLA : $18.20 STRAIGHT TRIFECTA : $304.90 *** feature race straight trifecta ***

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 3-IMPRESSIVE EAGLE 2nd W=$5.60 1-VIENNESE 7-OLONANA

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 14-DISTINCTIVE LASS 2-BEL MER 2nd W=$5.70 10-BENATAR

RACE 5: YALUMBA STAKES 2000M GROUP 1 WFA

Tips: 3-CASUAL PASS 1-POMPEII RULER 2nd W=$2.10 7-GUILLOTINE 3rd W=$5.20

Others: - Pace: LEADER DICTATES Leaders : 3-CASUAL PASS Handy : 1-POMPEII RULER, 7-GUILLOTINE Back : 2-SIRMIONE, 4-DOURO VALLEY, 5-VIEWED, 6-C'EST LA GUERRE, 8-LARGO LAD Chances: 1-POMPEII RULER does seem to be almost back to best and last 2 runs at Caulfield have been excellent. Trainer has stated all spring that he is not pushing him on the track and getting him fit by racing, so really should just about be at peak now with 4 runs in. Excellent run here in Underwood when chased home the HUSSLER and stuck on and didn’t let him get away, then got cosy run, loomed as winner around the 200M in the Turnbull and got swamped going towards the post. Remember he had to give weight to rivals last start. Meets a fairly lacklustre field here and very well suited against this lot at WFA conditions. Looms as the one to beat. 2nd W=$2.10 3-CASUAL PASS is as honest as they come, and just keeps turning up year after year and putting in. 3 timer winner over this course and distance, and remember he did win this race 2 years ago when lunged on the line and beat the (1) !. Fitter for 3 runs in, and first two runs were excellent, rolling along on speed and putting himself into the finish. Happy to forgive last start, was a handicap and he had to carry plenty of weight, on a leader’s track with a tear away leader he got caught wide and chasing – still not beaten that far. Small field will play into his hands, and think he can lead and dictate here. Think he is worth a bet today, especially as the favourite is likely to start short. Go well. 7-GUILLOTINE has been the surprise hit of spring – came out of the blue to win at MV in the renamed Feehan at nice odds – but it was actually a very nice win. That day he was cluttered up on the rails and desperately trying to get out, got a cosy cover on a fast pace, but was always going to win if he got clear. Came out and went past a decent field with some ease. Last start in Turnbull got fired up and over raced on rails, but jockey did say he got trod on and got upset as a result – which is fair enough – we get upset when we get trod on on the train to work as well. Stuck on pretty well that day. Fitter for 3 runs in and can sit on speed which is a big plus in small field. He is our stand out Caulfield Cup pick at the moment – will get huge weight turn arounds form the Turnbull, and will back him in the Cup before today as think he will do something in this race to shorter his odds further. Pacifiers go on today which hopefully means he will settle. Solid chance here – we like this one !3rd W=$5.20 Place: 2-SIRMIONE is a little under rated, mainly because of bad form lapse mid Spring last year, but has now won the McKinnon and the Australian Cup, so has to be respected. 1st up run in Memsie was good when made some ground, and fair effort last start at MV. Did win the Australian Cup 3rd up last time in. Had the 4 weeks between runs might see him a little light going into this, and does tend to drop well back – think he needs speed on in his races and that’s unlikely in this small field. Place chance only today, but suspect he will run on enough to maintain interest. 8-LARGO LAD has always shown promise, but racing style of dropping well back and running on means he can mix his form a little – well OK – a lot. Impressive win 1st up this time in at Sandown mid week, then not suited by on pacer Flem 1400M 2nd up when ran on OK. Excellent run last week when really flying home from well back in slowly run race – but not like he was carrying weight or anything.. Extra distance should suit. Doesn’t really look suited today going into WFA contest though – especially not one with a small field and a dawdling pace. Place chance only at best. Sacking: 4-DOURO VALLEY is an honest enough stayer who is out of his depth at WFA, even in a incy wincy teeny weeny field like this. 3rd up and fitter for the 2 runs in which have been just OK. Extra distance suits, but doubt he can beat these. No. 1st W=$35.60 5-VIEWED is another handicap stayer doing his warm up routines. Two runs in have been OK, made a little ground and run on enough to maintain interest. Extra distance suits and will be fitter for the runs. Does drop back though, needs speed on and doubt that is going to happen in this and happy to pass on. No 6-C'EST LA GUERRE is a NZ import who has so far been a big flop this spring. Two runs in, did catch the eye running on first up, then well supported 2nd up when didn’t give a yelp. 3rd up and fitter for the 2000M run. Best form has been on wet tracks. Might improve today , as still lightly raced and might pay to forgive race under lights on a leader’s track. However, hasn’t done enough in Melb for us – what till he shows some real form. Summary: Another small and lacklustre Yalumba field, and worth nothing this has been a trick race the last couple of years, with the up and comer winning (e.g. MALDIVIAN, EL SEGUNDO) – which is why we think 7-GUILLOTINE is a pretty solid chance in this as this year’s up and comer. Small field, lack of pace, think either 3-CASUAL PASS or 7-GUILLOTINE leads and dictates here, and both will prove hard to run down. 1-POMPEII RULER should be sitting just behind them. Don’t actually think there is much between these three, 1-POMPEII RULER the obvious pick being the proven WFA horse, and does meet 7-GUILLOTINE better at the weights from last week. Just suspect as the obvious pick he is going to start very short, and if that happens, probably prefer to be on the other two chances. So let’s put 3-CASUAL PASS on top, remember he did beat 1-POMPEII RULER in this race 2 years back – and might lead and dictate here. 1-POMPEII RULER the obvious danger and honestly think 7-GUILLOTINE on the improve, despite the weight conditions is going to be right in this finish. Happy to avoid the favourite and bet on the other two if the odds are right. One to risk: 8-LARGO LAD Roughie: - RESULTS : No speed, 3-CASUAL PASS takes it up, but 4-DOURO VALLEY takes up the running and just keeps on going. Still can't believe he won a Group1 WFA race ! OK runs from 1-POMPEII RULER and 7-GUILLOTINE but just feel like they had every chance. 1-POMPEII RULER is racing well, but had chance to win last 3 starts and hasn't finished it off.

RACE 6: TOORAK HANDICAP 1600M GROUP 1

Tips: 4-VALEDICTUM 3-ALAMOSA 1st W=$9.60 1-BON HOFFA

Others: 17,10,15,14 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 13-RAHEEB, 16-KINGDA KA, 19-ROCKWOOD Handy : 2-ORANGE COUNTY, 3-ALAMOSA, 4-VALEDICTUM, 6-THE FUZZ, 8-HERE DE ANGELS, 9-OUR SMOKING JOE, 11-MARCHING, 14-TURFFONTEIN, 15-ANNENKOV Back : 1-BON HOFFA, 5-CONFECTIONER, 7-ESKIMO QUEEN, 10-SEA BATTLE, 12-MOLOTOV Chances: 1-BON HOFFA seems to be back to his best form after struggling during Autumn. Flying, dodging and weaving win down the straight 1st up and still ran on well 2nd up when winner got the break on him – was a fair ride to get to outside from inside barrier and be running on. Not far off top form. Best on dry tracks, so dead track last start wasn’t ideal. Ran close up 4th in this race last year carrying 55kgs – won the two lead up runs going into it. Pretty similar form in same races this year so has to be considered. Meets the (2) 1.5 kgs better from last run, which will narrow the margin. Up 200M here again. Drawn inside again here in big field – so jockey needs to pull same trick to get out and running. Will go close. Chance. 3-ALAMOSA looked like he was going to be a factor this spring with impressive 1st up run in the Liston just behind the cream of the crop, but hasn’t gone on with it. Not far off them in Memsie, but never really threatened, and then got caught up on fast speed in Feehan when not beaten far. Doing enough to stay interested, but not really getting into the finish. Initially was going to write him off, but fitter for the 3 runs in, has the 1600M run this time in - which few of his rivals do have, change of jockey today and blinkers come off – so will probably settle a little further back than normal. Last start was first time he has missed place over the 1600M. Dropping back to handicap a plus too. Starting to warm to his chances here and think he goes in as a definite chance. 1st W=$9.60 4-VALEDICTUM is another ever consistent performer who just keeps on coming up. Fitter for the 3 runs in, excellent run 1st up at Flem when got hampered by wayward opponent, fair effort in Syd when was on wrong leg, then drew outside barrier , dropped back to last and was making really good ground late last start. Drawn a nice barrier today and can take a more forward position if required. Hasn’t shown much in this race last 2 years, but well known in these feature miles and his form this time in isn’t too bad. Importantly had the 2 x 1400M runs going into this – in previous years had been stepping up from the 1200M. Racing well and think he looks a great chance in this at OK odds. 10-SEA BATTLE is rising to every challenge set to him. Fitter for 2 runs in, both of which have been excellent, and have to like how he knuckled down to get past arch rival last start at Flem. Gets nice weight drop up in class into this race. Versatile, but they probably have to ride him back and for luck here from outside barrier. Is 3rd up and up 200M – do usually prefer them to have 2 x 1400M runs or a 1600M run going into these feature miles – they are such hard and competitive affairs. He is really going well though so rates a chance, but barrier is the main sticking point. 4th W=$9.20 15-ANNENKOV was on a cups path last year and lest we forget how he kicked clear on the home turn in the Caulfield Cup at huge odds – only to stop dead 20 M later. Did run some useful races last spring at WFA though – but think they worked out he does not stay. Autumn form was ordinary, but probably more seasoned now to us funny down under folk. Sent to Sydney 1st up on bog track, then won a relatively weak race under lights at MV – on a leaders track – but sheesh those odds do look just plain silly in hindsight. He will roll along just on the speed in this, he has the 1600M win going into it, and wouldn’t write him off altogether. Think he has the ability, they just need to work him out and he might go on with it. Rough. 17-PILLAR OF HERCULES is much fitter for the 3 runs in and is starting to show a little bit of form. Did well to be not far off them in sprint races 1st two runs this time in, and made excellent ground here last start against most of these. Up to the 1600M today, but good barrier and think he can race more forward here. Definite chance – put him in. 3rd W=$11.80 Place: 6-THE FUZZ is an above average on pace dour stayer who has shown over the last year he can play the 1400M to 1600M game as well. Just nosed out with weight 1st up when looked like he had won, then never got going 2nd up in the Underwood. Drawn inside is a little concern – pretty sure – might be wrong, but most of his good runs over this trip he has lobbed along just behind the sped in races that have been leader dictated. Might get cluttered on the inside in the big field here and don’t think he has the gears to take runs if they present. Has the ability though, so won’t be far off them. Place preferred. 14-TURFFONTEIN is well drawn and usually runs on OK in his races. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but stepping into this off 1100M/1400M lead in runs and might get found wanting at the 1600M here today. Ran into placings here last start and have to consider based on that run. Drawn well and can race handy if required, so think he is going to get a pretty good run into this. Meets the (2) 2kgs better off, but was beaten 2.5L, but does narrow the margin considerably. Think he has to go in as a chance – barrier and should present at the right time. Got very similar run here last start, sitting just off the speed, and a few going around here went past him. Will be thereabouts., probably prefer place. Sacking: 2-ORANGE COUNTY pounced and booted away from them last start in impressive win. Bit of rain about helped him that day as does like just a tiny bit of give in the ground. Meets the (1) worse off on weights. Probably should have beaten him 2 starts back at Flem when was coming hard on the line. Form this time in has been excellent. Does go up 2.5 kgs on limit from last race. Few little things against him – the wide draw as he does like to sit handy, think he likes just a little give in the ground which not sure he is going to get, and think he is slightly suspect at the 1600M. Has run placings over the 1600M, but really think it is as far as he wants and gets found out in the feature miles with strong pace and big fields. Was beaten in this race last year, but form wasn’t as good. Last win was pretty impressive, but actually happy to let him run today and take the risk. 5-CONFECTIONER is fitter for the 2 runs in from a year off, but even when he was supposedly “in form” he was temperamental and hard to catch. Horse with serious issues and stay well clear. Warning. Warning. 7-ESKIMO QUEEN is an above average mare who had a task to try and win 1st up in Group 1 1400M. Was a fair effort, did get blocked for runs at top of straight. Did get set a pretty intense program last spring and wasn’t disgraced. 2nd up and up 200M and probably just prefer to let her have the run as well to show she is in form, but wouldn’t be surprised to see her come out and do something. Risking – with a degree of nervousness. 8-HERE DE ANGELS is an honest on pacer 1200M (just) sprinter. Yes, we are in the camp that says he struggles past 1200M. Trainer is keen to prove he can run 1600M and he probably knows better than the guy sitting on the couch at home. Sat behind speed and challenged to make a run in Rupert Clarke, but they went past him quickly, and then last start missed the start and actually ran on OK – but think that was a pretty lacklustre field behind the 1st two. Drawn out here and probably sits just behind the speed like he did here 2 starts back as they cuddle him to run the trip. Probably pulls out again and looks a danger just after they straighten – but pretty sure they will run straight past him again and he won’t finish it off. Risking. 9-OUR SMOKING JOE is an old timer who went OK making a little ground 1st up. Never like getting on them 2nd up and up in distance like he is today. Probably can race a little closer here from nice barrier. Hasn’t won for over 2.5 years, and cannot be sure how he is going – didn’t really show much last time in. Prefer to wait till he returns to form. 11-MARCHING used to be a consistent on pace 3YO, but hasn’t shown enough in his two runs in for us to get interested. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but likely to get caught wide from outside barrier and meeting plenty here who beaten him home last start, so hard to see him turning the tables. No 12-MOLOTOV shows a stack of ability, you just need to pick the right day. Think they have decided his best form is when fresh, so coming into this 2nd up and off a 5 week break. Ran a good race over this trip 2nd up last time in – but he had won 1st up that time. 1st up run this time in was disappointing. Might start silly odds and can put in a run, so maybe if you want those $100,000 first fours throw him in. Barrier 1 looks an issue though – likely to drop well back on the inside and think they will be winning down the middle of the track. No 13-RAHEEB has been going along well in Sydney before hitting bog track last week in Epsom, but won feature 1400M race before that. Has drawn wide though – and does like to race on speed – actually not that much else in this race that goes forward so might be able to get across too. Just always want to be on runners on in these feature 1600M races, they invariably turn up the pressure a long way out and think it is tough to lead and win them. Happy to let run and see how he lines up against Melb form. 16-KINGDA KA has drawn well, has no weight and normally races forward, so expect to be more prominent today. 2nd up and up 200M, and didn’t give a yelp 1st up. Prefer to wait till he shows some form in Melb. 18-GOD'S HAND - SCRATCHED 19-ROCKWOOD gets a run with the scratching and looks the likely leader - on pacer form an inside barrier. 2nd up and up 200M, but lightly raced and pretty good career form. Big field just always mean a lot of pressure up front, and 1st time in Melb just prefer to see how he goes. Passing. 2nd W=$17.90 Summary: Hoorah ! Finally we get a big Toorak Handiap field – the fields have been on the smallish size for a few years now. Big field and suspect they will be running on by Race 6, so look for those coming down the middle of the track. These races are just about always high pressure races run at a fast tempo, although there is just an even amount of pace here. Funny enough the on pacers are all Sydney horses - 19-ROCKWOOD now he is in the field probably leads, with 13-RAHEEB, 16-KINGDA KA pushing up, and probably 8-HERE DE ANGELS, 15-ANNENKOV next in line. But they always run along, so sure the pressure will come on at some stage. Looks an amazing betting race, you will be able to get attractive odds about whatever you like here. Big chance to 4-VALEDICTUM here at odds, 3 runs in have been good, ran on very well last start and is drawn to sit handy and make his own luck today. Always there abouts in these sorts of races, is running into form and looks way over the odds to us. Going to push for 3-ALAMOSA – even though when we started looking at the race thought we would be putting a line through it – but out of WFA company, back to handicap and change of riding tactics could make a difference. 1-BON HOFFA reliable and consistent should be thereabouts too. But wouldn’t write off the 17-PILLAR OF HERCULES, 10-SEA BATTLE and 15-ANNENKOV either, so probably play with quinellas and running doubles around these runners and should be plenty of value to justify going wide. One to risk: 2-ORANGE COUNTY Roughie: 15-ANNENKOV RESULTS : Tough even race as always, but winner gets a good sit and wins down the middle of the track. Huge run from 10-SEA BATTLE who keeps rising to every challenge - works to lead from outside barrier and sticks on most of straight. 4-VALEDICTUM drops out again and runs home well - realy wish they would ride him a bit closer !

RACE 7: CAULFIELD GUINEAS GROUP1 1600M 3YO

Tips: 11-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$3.10 14-TIME THIEF 2nd W=$11.00 1-VON COSTA DE HERO 3rd W=$12.50 QUINELLA : $18.20 STRAIGHT TRIFECTA : $304.90

Others: 5,13,7,8,2 Pace: FAST Leaders : 4-ROCKDALE, 10-TINDAL, 20-BRIGHT DEPUTY (emerg) Handy : 2-DUPORTH , 3-ALL AMERICAN , 6-FERNANDINA, 12-MINNESOTA SHARK, 13-LORD TAVISTOCK, 14-TIME THIEF, 15-GOGOCANNY, 17-WHITEFRIARS, 18-GEORGIA'S BOY Back : 1-VON COSTA DE HERO, 5-CARNERO, 7-DREAMSCAPE, 8-BACI AMORE , 11-WHOBEGOTYOU, 19-BONDARCHUK Chances: 1-VON COSTA DE HERO had high expectations at the start of the spring, but hasn’t really produced. Fitter for 2 runs in, up 200M here again today, but the extra distance should suit. 1st up run wasn’t too bad when they went quickly and he came pretty wide around them on a slow track. Useful effort to get into the place getters here last start, was running on well, and the Guineas Prelude form usually holds up. Does get a weight turn around into this set weights race – meets the (6) 1kgs better and the (14) 2.5kgs better, which means he won’t be far off them again. Drawn wide, probably drops back here, but this race is normally a pretty rough and ready race at a face pace, so runners on often figure. Looks a genuine chance. 3rd W=$12.50 5-CARNERO is fitter for the 3 runs in and is coming along nicely. Has been just behind these at all 3 starts this time in, and he is one that is going to be suited as the distances increase and he gets fitter. Run at MV was pretty good, he had a lot of trouble getting clear on the home turn and then was jammed on the rails shortly after. Gets the weight drop against the first two home from the Guineas Prelude when again got cluttered for room. Drawn wide is a worry, he will probably have to drop well back. Hasn’t had the best of luck, has been going along OK and is on the improve, so think he is by far the best rough chance in this. Pity about the barrier, would represent a nice bet if drawn well, but still some hope. 11-WHOBEGOTYOU has been stamping himself as the 3YO one to watch all spring. Simply could not get out when held in a vice like grip by school yard bully on the rails 1st up at Caulf and flew home when clear. Drifted far too far back and ran on well in on pace dominated Prelude here the start after – though worth noting he still meets some of those who finished in front of him worse on weights. Then stepped up to the 1600M under lights and put on a star performance – it was a dynamite leader’s track, although they did go quickly in that race, he come out a good 500M from home, went widest, went around them all and just kept on going. Most impressive performance. Like to get on the 3YO on the rise in this race, they usually keep on going, and he definitely seems to be the one. Like that he is going into this off stunning 1600M win. Middle barrier and probably won’t drift quite as far back as he has previously. Runners on win this race often should be suited. Definitely one to beat – just watch he doesn’t start silly odds though – this is always a tough competitive race and he has been beaten by many of these 2 starts back. So guessing $3.50-$4 is the right price. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.10 13-LORD TAVISTOCK did have fairly big raps on him. Beaten 1st up when jockey got criticised for going a wee bit too early, and then settled down to tough it out in head to head battle 2nd up. Not far off them in the Prelude here, even performance, probably did have every chance though. Blinkers first time here is a plus. Has drawn a nice barrier, will sit on the speed and form is good enough to be in the finish. Chance. 14-TIME THIEF has had only the 3 runs in, but has been showing a stack of ability. Unlucky not to be unbeaten – got held up for runs in silly straight race and was finishing over the top of the other one when nosed out in photo finish. Then was used up early to go forward, got headed and was coming back again on the line and think he would come again in another 50Min the Prelude. Definitely should’ve won that day. Drawn a nice barrier, can sit not far off the speed and should be right in the finish here. Guess he does meet all of these on worse weight terms though – that’s the only negative – gets the worse of the weights from the Prelude. But think he in on the rise and going really well, so going to ignore that and he is a strong chance in this. Main danger to favourite. 2nd W=$11.00 Place: 2-DUPORTH has come down from Sydney. Plenty of merit in all 3 runs this time in, though struggled a little in open company last start. Like that he has had the 1600M run leading into this. Always hard to line up the depth of Sydney racing, he has drawn well and can take a good sit here so will get a good run into the race. Not much between most of the VIC runners and he does represent the new form line, so is worthy of consideration. Probably be around the money, tending towards place. 4th W=$14.80 3-ALL AMERICAN has been chopping and changing all over the place – solid 1st up run in Syd over the 1400M when not far behind the (2), then probably set a task dropped back to open class Group 1 1200M sprint. Solid run in Bill Stutt Stakes, especially considering he was stepping up 400M in distance and also because he raced on pace and they set a furious pace, so he did well to stick on. Still hard to see him beating the (11) who had him well covered that night, but drawn well, will race handy, and is going along OK, so will probably be around the placings. 6-FERNANDINA caused a bit of a surprise in winning the Prelude, but that form does usually hold up going into this race. Led to win over 1100M 1st up, jockey got off and said he will run 1200M – just – which looked to be the case with 2nd up run, and then blow us down if he doesn’t come out and win over 1400M the start after ! Ouch. On pacers did dominate that race, and although he meets the (14) 1.5kgs better off from that run, it had a much harder run and was coming back on the line and would’ve grabbed the lead if they went a bit further. Drawn barrier 1 and probably goes forward – and sits handy – doubt he will lead as they know the 1600M could be an issue and they probably intend to cuddle it a little bit. Just think he would need everything to go right to win this, get a soft run on speed, and probably on pacers to be favoured. Dangerous to ignore the Prelude form though, so definite place chance, just watch out he doesn’t blow out to silly odds cause everyone thinks he is a risk at the trip. 7-DREAMSCAPE is a lightly raced Sydney sider with only the 3 starts. Is going along pretty well and ran fast time to win over the 1400M last start. Can sit handy, guess watch the market and see if the big Sydney money comes for him. Again, represents a new form line and not that much between the Melb 3YOs. Rough chance. 8-BACI AMORE has been going along OK in Sydney, has the 3 runs in since a mid winter break and all have been reasonable. Probably drops back here. Guess he hasn’t been winning, and goes into an even tougher field here so probably ready to leave him out. This race can often produce upsets though and he is the sort who can win at big odds and then you look back at the form and say – well, it wasn’t that bad. Tough even field so do need to knock some of them out, but hasn’t been disgraced this time in, drawn a good barrier which is often important in this race. Maybe keep in as a super rough chance – if there is going to be a 50-1 winner will be him. 15-GOGOCANNY is fitter for the 3 runs in and has been going along OK. Decided to go part rodeo clown 2nd up at Flem, then run in Guineas Prelude wasn’t that bad – was cluttered for runs and stuck on OK. All those who beat him home that day are going around here as well, and he does meet them all on equal or worse weight terms, so hard to see him turning the tables. However, is drawn well, suspect he might race more forward here today, and if you are going for a monster trifecta / first four probably worth putting him in as the silly outsider. Rough place chance. Sacking: 4-ROCKDALE isn’t going very well at all. Led to win over 1400M in QLD before coming to Melb, where he must be hanging out late night on King St or something, cause his form has been awful. Led and gave in quickly in Guineas Prelude – and the on pacers stuck on that day, then change of tactics to ride him back in the field at Flem really didn’t help much. Maybe try running him in the other direction? Add some thrills and spills to this race? Probably goes forward here from good barrier, but can’t have on form. 9-RHYNO CHASER - SCRATCHED 10-TINDAL led all the way to pinch the race against fairly ordinary opposition last week in a small field. Drawn extreme outside and does like to race on pace – think they need to push forward here and risk being trapped wide. Yet to miss a place, so obviously has ability, but sceptical about the field he beat at Flem, and think he faces a task drawn wide, on pace in this field when they normally go pretty quick. Happy to risk. 12-MINNESOTA SHARK was suited in 1st up win when they ran along and he got a split through the middle of the field. 3 runs since then have just been OK, he hasn’t really challenged, but probably not bad enough to quite write him off. Drawn inside barrier and suspect he might race more forward today. Dropped back, then went wide and early in Bill Stutt and stuck on OK, but the winner came from behind him, went around him and left him far far behind. Guess this is always a pretty tough even field, he has met most of these last 3 starts and most of them have beaten him home, so probably a bit hard to have on form in this. No 16-RELATED - SCRATCHED 17-WHITEFRIARS is another Syd visitor who has drawn a wide barrier and does normally race forward so likely to get trapped wide here. Fought on OK last start, but clearly beaten by the (7). Looks a tough task in a harder field, Melb way of going, on pace from a wide barrier. No 18-GEORGIA'S BOY gets into the field with early scratchings, which is handy, means he can prepare a packed lunch for the day. Beat small field leading at Bendigo, before that outclassed against many of these, raced on speed and probably should’ve fought on well as it was the racing pattern. Drawn very wide, and another who likes to race handy, so just going to add to the pressure up front now he is in this field. Not in this. 19-BONDARCHUK (emerg) is fitter for 2 runs in, but only contesting small fields in Adel, drawn outside barrier and hard to argue his chances. No 20-BRIGHT DEPUTY (emerg) gets to be the lucky 4th emergency for the week. They should run a spring raffle as to whether any of these ever get a start. On pacer who is well drawn, but if started likely to be lots of pressure up front and stepping up in class here. No Summary: Caulfield Guineas, always a tough, high pressure race – think we have managed to concede a chance to the majority of these. This race has been know to cause the odd upset with a bolter winning, so always worth keeping an eye on the outsiders in this race. However, traditional form lines are usually the best way to go, so stick to the place getters from the Guineas Prelude (especially), Bill Stutt and Concept, and watch out especially for those who are benefited under the set weights today. Often barriers are important in this race, but wonder if that is because track often favoured on pacers in previous years. Big field and there is just about always a genuine to fast pace in this race, and usually want to be on something running on down the middle of the track. Likely leaders are 4-ROCKDALE, 10-TINDAL (crossing from outside barrier), 20-BRIGHT DEPUTY (emerg – unlikely runner), however, there are quite a few here that race on speed that are drawn wide, so also expect that 17-WHITEFRIARS, 18-GEORGIA'S BOY will push forward. Expect that they will go pretty hard early as the big field tries to jostle for position and they should be winning out wide by this race. Really need to pay attention to the dominant 3YO on the rise in this race – if there is one – and think we do have one this year in 11-WHOBEGOTYOU, been unlucky in first two runs, then really showed something special in Bill Stutt Stakes win. Should be running home down middle of track and suspect that he wins. Just be careful he doesn’t start silly odds though, he sticks out, but apart from him this is a very very even field. 14-TIME THIEF continues to do everything right, and despite being disadvantaged at the weights he should get a good run in this race and is on the improve. Expect improvement from 1-VON COSTA DE HERO today with weight advantages. 5-CARNERO definitely the best of the roughies, though is going to need a bit of luck from the barrier. Suspect these 4 are the best out of the Melbourne lot, if an upset is going to come it will be from the new Sydney form lines – if you want to go wide in quaddies then they are the ones to add in . One to risk: 10-TINDAL Roughie: 5-CARNERO, 8-BACI AMORE RESULTS : Well - we got that pretty much right - straight trifecta in the feature race ! and within a whisker of a straight First Four with 5-CARNERO narrowing missing 4th. Winner is dominant and should go on - never looked like losing. Guineas Prelude form is the form to follow again with all 3 place getters coming through that race.