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| CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 9th Oct 2010 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Major rain storm midweek in Melbourne and just keep an eye on the weather heading into the weekend. Track was rated a SLOW(6) on Thursday , up to a DEAD(5) Friday morning – have seen a newspaper form guide reporting a DEAD(4) which appears to be incorrect. Still a few showers around on Friday and clearing up on Saturday so looks like we are still going to have a track with a bit of give in it. Should improve during the day, but expect a track that is probably going to be the worse side of dead. Rail goes back to TRUE here, and we should get even racing, but there is always the danger on these feature days with the rail going back that the track will favour on pacers. Especially if we get a sunny drying day and the inside dries out quicker. Plenty to bet on today and suspect we are going to get a few value winners, so we are going to spread our money out over the day on quite a few long shots. Apart from these bets also interested in having something at odds on Race 2: 1-JUNGLE RULER and even Race 5: 5-ALCOPOP (but more the place). RESULTS : Fine sunny day and track is upgraded to a GOOD(3). Strong on pace bias as is often the case with this meeting - especially on improving tracks that are drying out. Those that jumped to the lead were very hard to run down, quality horses who led won easily. Very little made ground from back in the field in most races. Absolutely extraordinary days racing with SO YOU THINK, MORE JOYOUS and BLAC CAVIAR all stepping up. As for Turf Deli's tips - extra ordinary. First wipe out of the Spring for the Betting Portfolio. Couldn't even find a place getter in the last 3 races - that's gotta hurt. BEST BET : Race 3: 2-PRECEDENCE $11 WIN 3rd W=$2.70 It’s a winner take all battle in this race to see who earns the right to go onto the Caulfield Cup. Our preference is for Bart’s one, his form this time in has been excellent. He is proven over a staying trip whereas his main rival 3-MOUDRE is not. Key to this race is actually the 4-STERLING PRINCE, who has no form but has been really running them along out in the lead in his races. He should turn this into a tough staying test and think that means you want to be on this one. Should win. RESULTS : Gets a little fired up early, and definitely doesn't seem to appreciate being cramped for room all the way down the straight. Still sticks on extremely well - just doesn't quite seem to want to fully stretch out trapped between horses. Jockey badly out ridden here, if he gets to the outside he probably wins. Definitely keep following. QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-MILITARY ROSE, 3-LONE ROCK x $5 X QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-MILITARY ROSE # 5,9,12 x $3 = $9 Looks the one to beat in this race. Somehow the jockey last start managed to have her 3 wide around the home turn from barrier 2, whilst the winner has come through on the inside – from barrier 11. Fitter for the 2 runs in and can sit just off the speed here in a race where there seems to be awful lot of pace. Should be in the finish, just a question of whether something runs on hard. Value in the quinellas, take the 3-LONE ROCK who might get another dream split off a fast pace and the again with the value runners on with a fast tempo - the (5),(9), (12). RESULTS : Takes sit on the speed, but does nothing in the straight and drops out. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 12-AVIENUS $5 EW 6th W=$18.20 Yep – we are backing her again. Still really like the win in the Stock Stakes when she flattened and pinged for home. Tried to do the same last start, but was floundering soon after they turned – she obviously doesn’t run a strong 2000M. She looks really well suited here, nice barrier, can sit just behind the speed and put herself into the race. At the $21 on offer looks a solid each way bet. RESULTS : Settled back towards the end of the field which wasn't expected. Actually hopelessly unlucky, loomed up behind runners half way down the straight and was badly held up for runs for about 50M, before scooting back to the inside and holding her ground. If she wasn't blocked at a crucial stage actually think she would have definitely ran a place (only beaten 1.8L) and suspect may have challenged the winner. BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 13-INTENCION, 8-SMOKIN' JOEY $2.50 EW X Have something on our two roughies in the feature race who might do something at odds. The 13-INTENCION is going to get a nice run from his barrier and has been thereabouts in the right form races. The 8-SMOKIN' JOEY represents the unknown factor in this race and if he gets a position from his outside barrier think he might put himself into this race. RESULTS : Do little, 13-INTENCION gets the box seat run but doesn't finish it off. 8-SMOKIN' JOEY run was good, trapped wide, ran on late on a track which was favouring on pacers and a lot of improvement still to come from this one. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4: 6-BLACK CAVIAR at around $1.80 1st W=$1.90 OK initially this does look like we have totally lost all our senses. Boom sprint horse who is unbeaten in 5 starts and has huge raps on her. But she is coming back after a long break due to injury, 1st up, and she is meeting a pretty handy field here. Although she is undefeated, she hasn’t really been challenged in her races, Australia Stakes win was a gimme in a 5 horse field, didn’t beat much in her 1st 3 wins (but won easily). The only tough competitive race she was in, the Danehill was much closer and they were closing on her on the line. This field looks pretty competitive, the 1-MIC MAC and the 3-FIRST COMMAND in particular, but also be wary of the 3 x 3YOs at the bottom of the field, all of whom go OK. She is obviously outstanding, but she has also been placed extremely well and think it is worth taking her on today at the very short odds on offer. RESULTS : Yep - totally insane. Jumps to the lead and scoots away mid race and says bye bye and that's the end of that. Guess our thinking was that they all need to lose sometime, and 1st up, off an injury into a good quality field might be the day. But if you want to lay you want to try and lay these shorties. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. DAILY DOUBLE : Races 7,9 : 1,4,8,10,13/ 13,14 x 50 cents = $5. X Should be a decent daily double with two wide open races. Good chance of an upset result in the Caulfield Guineas, so take plenty of roughies. There are two value runners in a tough, even last leg the (13) and the (14), good chance the two leaders the (1) and (3) are going to knock each other out so look for something well drawn running on. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $0 NET : $-50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 5-MAC CHOIS, 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-SLEEPERS Race 2: 1-JUNGLE RULER, 12-DELTA GEE, 5-DRENALIN Race 3: 2-PRECEDENCE, 3-MOUDRE, 5-LINTON Race 4: 3-FIRST COMMAND, 6-BLACK CAVIAR, 1-MIC MAC Race 5: 6-SO YOU THINK, 5-ALCOPOP, 2-WHOBEGOTYOU Race 6: 12-AVIENUS, 7-SPACECRAFT, 1-MORE JOYOUS Race 7: 13-INTENCION, 1-TOORAK TOFF, 8-SMOKIN' JOEY Race 8: 1-MILITARY ROSE, 3-LONE ROCK, 9-ACROSS THE MOON Race 9: 13-ORBITING BELLE, 14-FLOWERCHILD, 3-I’M A HUSSY |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MAC CHOIS 2nd W=$2.70 4-HAPPY TRAILS 3-SLEEPERS 1st W=$11.90 Quinella : $18.10 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-JUNGLE RULER 12-DELTA GEE 5-DRENALIN |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-PRECEDENCE 3rd W=$2.70 3-MOUDRE 5-LINTON 1st W=$4.30 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-FIRST COMMAND 6-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.90 *** LAY OF THE DAY - OOPS *** 1-MIC MAC |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.40 5-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$19.90 2-WHOBEGOTYOU 3rd W=$3.50 Quinella : $11.80 Trifecta : $27.40 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-AVIENUS 7-SPACECRAFT 1-MORE JOYOUS 1st W=$2.30 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-INTENCION 1-TOORAK TOFF 8-SMOKIN' JOEY |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MILITARY ROSE 3-LONE ROCK 9-ACROSS THE MOON |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-ORBITING BELLE 14-FLOWERCHILD 3-I’M A HUSSY |
| RACE 5: YALUMBA STAKES 2000M WFA GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 6-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.40 5-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$19.90 2-WHOBEGOTYOU 3rd W=$3.50 Quinella : $11.80 Trifecta : $27.40 |
| Others: Pace: NONE Leaders : 3-RED RULER Handy : Back : 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 2-WHOBEGOTYOU, 4-EMPIRES CHOICE, 5-ALCOPOP Chances: 2-WHOBEGOTYOU seems to have come back better than ever this time in. Loomed like he was going to go past the (6) 1st up – and think he was probably entitled to given the run. Then never in doubt when got his absolute dream scenario last start - MV, small field, track with give, track favouring runners on – pretty much his perfect night out. Except there was no Jennifer Hawkins. Now we get to the questions about him – past 1600M ? Still looks like he is going to get a track with some give in it which favours him more than his main rival. And all of his recent wins have been in small WFA fields where half the field are no hopers and he can’t get held up for runs. Won this race last year when ridden more forward in a fairly substandard field. The 5 seconds from 8 runs at Caulfield is a bit of a worry. He should be able to stalk the (6) and you would think given the small field and soft conditions is going to be some chance to run him down. Chance. 3rd W=$3.50 5-ALCOPOP was last year’ spring sensation who didn’t come up during the Autumn and apparently has been set back with a virus this time in. Fitter for the 3 runs in, all have been in handicaps and has been forced to carry extremely big weights. Actually really liked the last run, he was starting to finish off and you would think with the 3 runs and 2000M run under his best he is just about going to hit top form today. Like that he has the extra run in and the 2000M run over the main two rivals. Got the feeling he is going to do something today – and wouldn’t even rule out an upset here. Looks very well in next week in the Caulfield Cup and suspect he is going to do something today to see his odds in that race shorten dramatically. Genuine upset chance. 2nd W=$19.90 6-SO YOU THINK is just weeks away from being crowned the Best Horse in Australia by a country mile. Been a fair while since we have had a totally dominant one – and he is looking the goods. Cox Plate win was outstanding. Run in Emirates when over raced and went too hard was excellent. Win first up this time in, after a year off, throat operation, and on an unsuitable wet track – pretty darn good. Cruised in the Underwood and always looked to have the race in his keeping. Big plus is that he has now learnt how to settle, he can race handy and that means he will always put himself into the race. Question is today whether the (2) can stalk him in the small field and run him down? Maybe. Maybe not. Trainer has said not at best on wet ground so just watch how soft the track comes up. But this one can control when he goes and think he will still be far too good. Should win. 1st W=$1.40 Place: 4-EMPIRES CHOICE is one of Bart’s with some ability, who has had 2 year long spells in the last few years so obviously has a few issues. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and you would expect more improvement to come as he starts to get back to some form. Probably not against the best two horses in the country though at WFA. Place Sacking: 1-MASTER O'REILLY has had two fairly plain runs this time in. Can probably excuse the heavy track run in the Makybe Diva as they were forced to run him on an unsuitable track so he didn’t fall behind in his spring campaign. But he didn’t do much 2nd up in the Underwood either. Normally by now he has ran home for a flashing 3rd or 4th in a WFA lead up race. Still counting - he has not won a race since the 2007 Caulfield Cup – and rapidly running out of fingers and toes. Goes better at Flemington, needs a genuinely firm track (likely to be softish today) and no form. No 3-RED RULER is a NZ visitor who has been around for a few springs now and never really shown anything in Melbourne. 5 Caulfield runs – no placings. Fitter for the 3 runs in, needs a firm dry track which is unlikely. Actually went OK in the Underwood. But he has had a dream run on the speed a few times in these spring WFA races and never finished it off. Don’t understand why they don’t run him in a staying handicap where he has a chance? Probably likely leader here, but has had plenty of chances. No 4th W=$35.40 Summary: We always get a small field in this race which is such a shame. We also often get a short priced favourite too, and if you look back over the years extremely short priced favourites have been beaten in this race in 2004, 2006, 2007,2008 – and normally by the horse that leads. The small field can lead to a funnily run race. However, having said that don’t think those beaten short priced favourites were as good as 6-SO YOU THINK who does appear to be the genuine article. 3-RED RULER probably leads here, with 6-SO YOU THINK sitting off him. The beauty with 6-SO YOU THINK is that he can sit on pace and make his own luck, so even though his main rival will be stalking him, and is going to be better suited on soft ground, still suspect 6-SO YOU THINK will kick and prove far too good. Would never back a short priced favourite but the $1.55 or so on offer actually looks OK too. The smoky though is 5-ALCOPOP – just got a feeling he is ready to ping and wonder if he just sits off the two favourites, lets them battle it out and comes over the top of them? 2-WHOBEGOTYOU probably has his best chance to beat the (6) today, soft track, can stalk him, is going well, guess he needs to make sure he doesn’t give it too much of a start. Again just wonder if 2-WHOBEGOTYOU tries to keep 6-SO YOU THINK close by, applies the pressure a fair way out, whether 5-ALCOPOP might have a chance to run over the top of them? Bottom line, 6-SO YOU THINK should win, but worth having an interest bet on 5-ALCOPOP even if it is just for the place. One to risk: - Roughie: 5-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$19.90 The Key: Small field and often an upset in this race. Surely not this year though ? RESULTS : Absolutely breath taking win and we finally have a stand out Best Horse In Australia - something we have not had for many years. Could really be anything at this stage, who knows what this guy is capable of. We went against the norm and pushed for 5-ALCOPOP as the main danger, who did as we predicted - sat back off them and went past a broken 2-WHOBEGOTYOU. There was a nice value quinella ($11.80) and straight trifecta ($27.40) in a straight forward race to be taken as many times as you liked. 5-ALCOPOP starts at W=$41 on course and his Caulfield Cup odds shorten dramatically after the race. |
| RACE 6: TOORAK HANDICAP 1600M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 12-AVIENUS 7-SPACECRAFT 1-MORE JOYOUS 1st W=$2.30 |
| Others: 10 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 1-MORE JOYOUS, 3-LA ROCKET, 8-POOR JUDGE Handy : 10-RESPONSE, 12-AVIENUS, 14-NO JURISDICTION Back : 2-DRUMBEATS, 4-GOLD SALUTE, 5-KIDNAPPED, 6-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 7-SPACECRAFT, 9-CHASM, 11-ALLEZ WONDER, 13-GHOSTMILK, 15-WE'RE GONNA ROCK Chances: 1-MORE JOYOUS is the Sydney super star sent down to prove herself in Melbourne town. Owner was adamant to go to this race rather than the Yalumba which looked more suitable. Winner of 8 on end in Sydney and the phrase “The next Sunline” is being thrown around. Not by Gai of course who is always so quiet, subdued and level headed. Races on pace and there isn’t that much speed here so shouldn’t have many problems crossing from barrier 10. The challenge is 1st time in Melbourne, 1st time at Caulfield, carrying 58kgs in an open class handicap against some that are in pretty good form. Probably going to be plenty of value about the rest of the field and some of them are pretty handy. Suspect she is going to start very short on the tote too. Strong chance, happy to entertain others though. 1st W=$2.30 2-DRUMBEATS won nicely last start coming from well back and form has held up with placegetter winning last week’s Epsom. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 2 x 1400M runs and ready for the 1600M. Has previously run a 5th in an Epsom and a 4th in a Doncaster so not far off in these feature miles. Probably a little disappointing in both runs down here last spring, but had excuses both times. Would prefer a firmer track than will be getting today. Chance. 7-SPACECRAFT is in career peak form. Showed a lot of potential as a 3YO and was wisely put away before the VRC Derby. Currently being raced as a miler – but could easily go further if asked (nicely). Dominant wins last 2 starts, and form from last run holds up with placegetter winning the Benalla Cup. Just cautious about easy wins at MV which can be a little flattering sometimes. Hard fit 16000M winner, probably wants them to be running on and winning OK. Drawn outside barrier, can drop back and sit off them and swoop down the middle of the track. Solid chance. 10-RESPONSE has been absolutely flying this spring. 1st up scooted and kicked clear on inside which was the worse going and took some effort to run down. 2nd up jockey got too far back and came with a late rush and just missed, and last start clever move by jockey to scoot forward and pinch the race – but was fading on the line. Drawn out here, will probably just sit handy rather than go to the lead again. Won over the 1600M as a 3YOF so should run out the distance OK. Do they try to go forward and sit handy from the wide barrier or just let her drop back? Either should be fine – she is pretty versatile. She is fit, and flying and this race is probably only a little bit harder than last start. Chance. 12-AVIENUS has a fair bit of ability and plenty to like about MV win 2 starts back when flattened down and went for home on the home turn leaving some more fancies rivals well behind her. She went for home early again last start at MV, but was struggling a long way out – she did OK to box on and finish 6th, and there were some smart ones in front of her. Think that showed she doesn’t run out the 2000M and is best over a mile. Think she is a solid chance today – back to the 1600M, she can sit just on the speed from perfect barrier and best form is on tracks with some give in it. Jockey Williams has got off though to ride the (10). Think she looks very well suited in this, especially at the bottom of the weights and loving the odds on offer. Don’t want to play favourites as we have tipped her a few times this spring – but she does look really well placed here. Strong chance. Place: 8-POOR JUDGE has been racing well in Bris and has come down to check out what all this Spring Carnival hoo haa is all about. Been winning open handicaps, had a 3kgs claimer on board last start, but won with big weight start before that. Race fit on pace 1600M winner probably worthy of respect. Handles it wet OK. Pretty hard to line up here – note though that they have put noted front runner jockey Gauci on board so suspect they intend to go to the lead here. Up in class - Place 3rd W=$67.10, P=$13.90 9-CHASM does have a fair bit of ability on his day, but hasn’t shown his best form for a while. Fitter for the 2 runs in and was a eye catcher finishing on late behind HAY LIST last start down the straight. Strong finishing run on type who could be heading back towards best form. Probably does want a track on the firmer side of dead though – so watch how the track comes up. Also if they are running on OK. Place. 14-NO JURISDICTION is a pretty honest miler who is looking good for the All Greys race this year. Shame there is no pre-post market on that race. Fitter for the 2 x 1400M runs in, and ran on pretty well last start after struggling to get clear early in the straight. Meets the (11) 2.5 kgs worse on weights for that run. Interestingly – he is still entered for the Caulfield Cup, so they are trying to win this and force their way into the field. Have a bit of time for this one, drawn a good barrier probably races more handier today. Worth throwing in as a rough place chance, but does look to be out of his depth against these. Place Sacking: 3-LA ROCKET caused a huge boil over to win the St George Stakes here in the Autumn. Dry track, on pacer who might not get it quite as firm as he wants today? Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up was unsuitable slow ground. 2nd up raced on speed but didn’t get to the lead and did have to carry weight. Probably goes forward here and ensures a genuine speed. Prefer to wait till shows some form. No 4-GOLD SALUTE hasn’t had the best of luck at the barriers, but does have a lot of ability on his day. 1st up over unsuitable 1000M took forever to get warm, but was starting to get going over the last bit. Pulled up sore last start when last. Didn’t miss by much in this race last year – but had much better lead up form. Looks like he is having a few issues. Expect some improvement today – but probably need to wait till he shows some form before getting on. No. 5-KIDNAPPED is more a staying type who is 2nd up coming off an ordinary 1st up run. Probably need a few more runs. No 6-LUEN YAT FOREVER is a Macau visitor out here to win our prestigious Toorak Handicap? No – he is actually heading towards the Cox Plate. Look at that form – only ever missed a place twice. Placed 1st or 2nd last 13 starts. Worth noting that GOOD CONTROL who ran last week from Macau had pretty good form too – started $80 and was well beaten. Had two months off, would definitely want to see him run before throwing anything that could be remotely considered currency (notes, coins, stamps, slabs of beer) his way. No 4th W=$45.70 11-ALLEZ WONDER won this race last year at long odds for the same female jockey. She did get an absolute dream run that day, just behind the speed, on a track that was favouring on pacers, and the gap came at the right time. 2nd up and up 200M today – was finishing off nicely at the end of her last race, and gets a nice weight drop into this. She won this race last year coming off a win though – with 2 runs in. Does seem to need a genuine firm track – wet track form, even dead track form is pretty ordinary, and looks like we will get a genuine dead track today. . To be honest thought the win last year was a bit of a fluke, her win/place strike rate is pretty ordinary and happy to take on this year. No. 13-GHOSTMILK was a winter sensation who needs to transform into a spring contender. Dominant wins on wet tracks over winter, but only just fair when got onto a drier track at MV last start. Trainer has stated definitely wants it wet – guess he wants a genuine slow, think we are probably looking at a worse side of dead. Was entered for feature WFA race at Flem a few weeks back, but didn’t get a start. You just wonder how long she is going to stay up for, she was freshened to aim for some spring races but things have sort of stalled a bit since then. Her chances depend on the track conditions, and the wetter the better. Elevate if the track is wet enough, else No. 15-WE'RE GONNA ROCK is one we have been screaming and chanting as over rated all spring to anyone who happens to walk by. Yes that is us muttering to ourselves on the train in the mornings. Huge spruik on this one – but really has not done anything. Ran on OK in the Group 1 which was a solid effort, then loomed last start and looked like he was going to run down the leader and faded badly on the run. Hard to see him running out a strong 1600M based on that performance. Always starts way under the odds on the tote too. Prefer to risk. 2nd W=$11.40 Summary: These feature mile races are always great betting races. Generally want something that has had at least 3 runs in (preferably with 2 x 1400M runs), solid 1600M form (amazing how many horses contest these races, but can’t run a strong mile) and watch out for those at the bottom of the weights. There actually isn’t a huge weight difference between top and bottom weight in this so the 1-MORE JOYOUS will definitely have her chance. Pace here should be genuine enough 3-LA ROCKET should go forward, suspect 8-POOR JUDGE is going to push forward as well and 1-MORE JOYOUS will probably get left exposed a little sitting outside with leader with a big weight. Sitting handy behind them 10-RESPONSE, 12-AVIENUS, 14-NO JURISDICTION. Happy to have something each way again on 12-AVIENUS – she just looks really well placed here getting a perfect run behind the speed, and can forgive last run as obviously not a 2000M horse. 7-SPACECRAFT in peak form and runs a strong mile which is important, and they should go fast enough here to allow them to run on – just needs the track to be giving every horse a fair chance 1-MORE JOYOUS obviously the one to beat, does look a task with 58kgs, 1st time at Caulfield, tough feature 1600M race and may even get caught wide from the barrier. Still she is probably good enough to over come those obstacles, just worth looking for value at the bottom of the weights in these sort of races. One to risk: 11-ALLEZ WONDER 14th W=$15.90 Roughie: 14-NO JURISDICTION The Key: Always be wary of those at the bottom of the weights in feature miles. RESULTS : Scrambling blanket finish, but tough win by the Sydney mare, carrying weight, 1st time in Melbourne and coming from behind on a track favouring on pacers. We may be playing favourites but 12-AVIENUS looked hopelessly unlucky - settled back much further than usual, then got totally held up for runs for about 50M at a crucial stage in the straight. 15-WE'RE GONNA ROCK seems to be sorted out now and will probably be competitive in the remaining feature miles. |
| RACE 7: CAULFIELD GUINEAS 1600M 3YO C+G GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 13-INTENCION 1-TOORAK TOFF 8-SMOKIN' JOEY |
| Others: 10, 4, 2,5 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 6-RUN FOR LEVI, 12-FORT CHAUVEL Handy : 3-MASQUERADER, 4-HOLLOWLEA, 7-EPIC DRAGON, 10-BULLBARS, 11-SERIOUSLY GOOD, 13-INTENCION, 15-QUARTERBAR Back : 1-TOORAK TOFF, 2-ILOVETHISCITY, 5-ANACHEEVA, 8-SMOKIN' JOEY, 9-KUDAKULARI, 14-REKINDLED INTEREST, 16-COSMONAUT Chances: 1-TOORAK TOFF is probably the best horse going around in this field and they often win this race. Form this time in has been excellent, launched out wide to win 1st up, come from behind to win a tough slogging feature race 2nd up and last start was ridden upside down– went flushed out and had to go forward and still stuck on pretty well. Much better ridden from behind and expect to see him drop back again today. Very important to note he hasn’t been beaten very far last start, he was ridden upside down and meets all of them equal or better on weights. Very tough customer who travelled around a fair bit as a 2YO and again as a 3YO, and yet has been competitive at just about every run. Only little query with him is that he tends to slog home and just get up – often this race is won by one on the up who swarms over the top of them down the middle of the track for a dominant win. Ticks all the boxes of the one you want in this race, best run from the Prelude, best weighted from that race. Strong chance. 4th W=$4.20 8-SMOKIN' JOEY is coming through a different form line to the Bill Stutt and Guineas Prelude so maybe worth paying attention to. Only the 2 runs in, 1200M/1400M and out to the 1600M today which is an ask. 1st up probably not suited on a wet track and did take a while to get into the clear and finished on OK – and note that he beat home the (14) that day and will start double the odds of that one. Did loom up and fight on pretty well here last start with a big weight and he was giving the (11) a whopping 5kgs that day and meets him on level weights today. His best form so far has been here at Caulfield. Outside barrier is the problem here, reckon this is a pretty tough even field so you need every break you can get. Likely to drop well back from outside barrier, but he will be running on solidly down the middle of the track. Blinkers first time too. If they went forward and found a position – there isn’t that much speed here he is actually a pretty strong chance. Think he is clearly the best roughie in this race, different form line, but of upside about him – just needs to over come that barrier. Rough chance. 10-BULLBARS seems to be on the way up and could improve dramatically here today. Fitter for the 3 runs in, should be better for the run over 1600M and blinkers go on today. Not much between him and the (5) 1st up, was working home solidly 2nd up, and loomed on the turn in the Bill Stutt like he was going to run over the top of them, but only ground away solidly to the line. Funny to see how stables affect the odds – the (4) beat him home at Flem, yet that one started double the odds of this one last start. Drawn a nice barrier, suspect they might ride him a bit more forward today with the blinkers on and just get the feeling he is going to improve today and think is a solid chance. Chance. 13-INTENCION is one we have been following - and yes that was us going the early crow at Caulfield last start when he burst through on the rails full of running like he was going to run away with it at $31. Got swamped on the line, but still fought it out pretty well with the (1). Main problem is that he meets that one 2.5kgs worse off for that run – and the (1) probably had more excuses. Has been doing absolutely nothing wrong though – 4 starts, been beaten < 1.5L each time, so he is tough and competitive and in the finish. 2 starts ago here just shied off one in front of him but still not beaten far and that form holds up. Still in for the Derby so you would think the 1600M today is going to suit. Drawn a perfect barrier too and can settle on the speed. Think there is a lot to like about this one, will lob just behind the speed, he has been competitive in the right lead up races and probably still has some upside which might overcome being disadvantaged at the weights. Chance. Place: 2-ILOVETHISCITY is the mandatory boom Sydney 3YO. This race requires a boom Sydney 3YO to go around as part of the conditions of entry. Normally they start very well supported, and suspect this guy will start a solid favourite. Often these boom Syd horses do flop in this race though, sometimes they have already peaked for the main races back in NSW and have nothing left for this race which is always a tough slog. There actually doesn’t seem to be much between the ones from Melb – there doesn’t seem to be a standout this year, so he could easily be better than all of them. Has the impressive 1600M win going into this is a big plus. Drawn out and will probably drop well back. Not saying he can’t win, and if you like him then get on, just got a feeling something is going to step up at odds in this race so prefer to go looking for value this year. Place. 3-MASQUERADER is another Syd visitor who should have a fair bit of improvement with the 3 runs in. Not that far from the (1) 2 starts back, but it was a blanket finish. Missed start when beaten and well in the market last start – and was ridden a bit handier. Drawn inside so you would think they will race handy again and make the most of the barrier. Blinkers go on 1st time. 3 runs in and blinkers and you would probably expect from improvement here. Was beaten by both the (1) and the (2) in the Golden Rose though. Prefer place. 3rd W=$11.30 4-HOLLOWLEA has been the surprise packet this spring and if you have been following him you would be loving the $25 and $10 wins. Win at Flemington on the wet was excellent – came out and pounced on a handy field. Then beaten less than 2L against this lot in the Prelude on a track that was pretty firm. Back to MV, good track, but probably just a little bit more give and railed through narrow gap to go to the line strongly. Like that he has had a few more runs in than most if this turns into a fast run slog. Plus is 1600M win going in as well. Probably would like to position handy, but has drawn an outside barrier so might get caught wide on the speed. Nothing wrong with form. Chances probably come down to how wet the track is – seems to need just a little bit of give in the ground to show his best. Firm track probably place only, dead to slow probably a rough winning chance. Barrier means prefer a place, but another that wouldn’t be surprised if he won. Place. 5-ANACHEEVA has done nothing wrong winning both lead up runs and is probably a bit under rated. Actually seems over the odds for one that is unbeaten this time in, and for a Guineas Prelude winner. Normally something like that would have a huge boom on it? Definitely needs a new publicity agent. Does like to settle back and barrier 1 probably not ideal here – doesn’t seem to be a particularly fast pace, likely to get caught up in traffic Do always prefer them to have had 3 runs going into this race and 2 x 1400M, but maybe we are just being pedantic. On form he does look over the odds, wouldn’t be surprised if he kept on going, but he might need some luck from the barrier. Prefer place 1st W=$5.70 14-REKINDLED INTEREST is another one we have been following, but just about ready to drop off – which means he will probably win going away from them.3 runs in have all been very promising, and almost identical – each one a slashing-late-flashing-back-me-next-start-please-video-black-booker. Just he hasn’t really got into the finish, it’s all been 4ths and 5ths and 6ths which is pretty useless. You would think he would appreciate the extra distance today. Does meet most of those from the Prelude worse on weights which is a big negative – and they all finished in front of him. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him come out and burst onto the scene today, just suspect he might do the same thing all over again – drop too far back and run on. Place for us – but if you like him go for it, he has just stung us a few times already this spring. Place. Sacking: 6-RUN FOR LEVI set a furious tempo in the Bill Stutt Stakes when he did not handle the tight MV turn, but he was floundering badly heading towards the line. Run before that at MV was good as well when left exposed chasing a tear away leader. Solid, tough 1600M fit and will probably get an unchallenged lead here. Doubt they will tear along like he did last start and doubt he is a STARSPANGLEDBANNER. Has drawn inside, will clearly lead, guess just watch to see if on pacers are favoured again which was the case on this day last year. Suspect that he will kick at the top of the straight and will be fading badly over the last 100M and get swamped. Risking. 2nd W=$36.80 7-EPIC DRAGON has been up and down this spring. Showed little 1st up, suited by fast pace and got a dream split 2nd up to win, and didn’t give much of a yelp last start in the Bill Stutt. They did decide to ride him forward when he won, winkers have gone off today you just wonder if they are going to ride him back a little more? Drawn a perfect barrier, should sit just behind the speed, just seems to have come through the weaker form lines and prefer to risk today. No 9-KUDAKULARI is one of Bart’s who doesn’t have much form this time in, but the man has already performed more miracles than Australia’s first Saint. Fitter for the 3 runs in, wasn’t beaten far behind most of these in the Golden Rose and the Guineas Prelude. Is a winner over the 1600M in the Autumn and might be looking for the extra distance of today. Again tough even field though, has drawn outside barrier, probably drops well back and has been held by many of these last 2 starts so have to leave out. No 11-SERIOUSLY GOOD was a nice win last start here, but does look hopelessly weighted against the (8) who he meets 5kgs worse off for < 1 L margin – and you would think that one has more improvement to come. Fitter for the 3 runs in, drawn a little wide and does normally race handy so might go forward and wide here. Just looks outclassed against these and prefer to risk. No 12-FORT CHAUVEL is the outsider of the field, and is a maiden so does look outclassed here. Is very fit though, had a long solid campaign, so might be advantaged if this turns into a tough slog. Likely to go forward and will help set the tempo. Generally you want to be on a flashy one on the rise in this – and he doesn’t seem to be going anywhere at the moment. No 15-QUARTERBAR is one coming through the provincials and we are a bit suss about the Geelong synthetic provincial form – especially in pretty small fields. Well drawn and still largely an unknown so guess you cannot rule out entirely but suspect class will test today. No 16-COSMONAUT is another one of Bart’s who is going to start long odds having never ran a place. Still you can make a case – fitter for the 3 runs in, has ran on OK in a few of his runs. All have been on wet tracks which may not suit? Drawn out, will drop out and run on, and guess the 1800M lead in run might be a plus if it is a tough 1600M slog. Actually if you are taking wide trifectas and first fours would throw this one in just for some blow out value in the minor placings, but that’s about it. No Summary: Always a fascinating race as the boom 3YO’s all meet to decide who is going to be crowned king. Does the race seem a little lacklustre this year? Or were we just spoilt last year with TRUSTING, STARSPANGLEDBANNER, DENMAN and SO YOU THINK?. Normally we like betting in this race, there is a lot of money being thrown around and a lot of value to be had. Often there is a star 3YO on the rise, who goes from strength to strength though his 3YO season, and wins storming down the middle of the track in an impressive manner. Do we have one of those this year? 1-TOORAK TOFF is probably the most likely candidate. Normally in a big field this is a tough competitive race and the winner finishes hard down the middle of the track. The form race is usually the Guineas Prelude, pick the best run (in your opinion) out of that race and watch for those dropping in weight to the level weights today. Again that looks to be 1-TOORAK TOFF in our books, so he seems to be the one to beat here. Suspect he is not going to start favourite either, with the money coming for the 2-ILOVETHISCITY and anything over $5 does look good value. Watch and see how the track is racing, we suspect it will be even or favouring on pacers, obviously if it is favouring runners on that changes things a lot. Most of these are capable in the wet, and 4-HOLLOWLEA is going to be the one most advantaged if the track stays genuinely rain affected. Even though it is a big field, the pace should only be even. 6-RUN FOR LEVI, 12-FORT CHAUVEL are the likely leaders, but doubt 6-RUN FOR LEVI will go as fast as last start when had to cross from an outside barrier. Probably 4-HOLLOWLEA, 10-BULLBARS, 13-INTENCION sitting handy and you would want to watch out for these three who are likely to get the run of the race. Don’t think there is much between these at all , and just got a feeling we are going to get an upset this year. Most even field we can remember for some time, and most of these have some sort of chance. So we are going to go for a value result and push for 13-INTENCION who still has a lot of upside, is going to get a perfect run just behind the speed here off a moderate tempo and might just boot though again and deny the late runners on. Badly weighted from the Guineas Prelude, but just think at the odds on offer he is going to give this a pretty good shake. 1-TOORAK TOFF is definitely the one to beat, ticks all the boxes, he just sort of grinds home though so he needs to stick his head out at the right time. 8-SMOKIN' JOEY is the other value runner, would just about rate him on top if he hadn’t drew the widest barrier, but think he represents the unknown factor in this and if they go forward and slot in somewhere he will make a race of this. Very even lot and no surprise to see 10-BULLBARS, 4-HOLLOWLEA, 5-ANACHEEVA or 2-ILOVETHISCITY win, just looking for value in what we think might be an upset year. One to risk: 11-SERIOUSLY GOOD 16th W=$64.70 Roughie: 8-SMOKIN' JOEY The Key: Best run from the Guineas Prelude normally wins. RESULTS : Of course, it is entirely possible that that the best run from the Guineas Prelude could have actually been the winner of that race ! Definitely under rated horse, has to be said he has got perfect breaks in all his runs, but guess you have to be good enough to take them when they come. Yet another Sydney boom horse bombs out in this race - happens year after year after year. 14-REKINDLED INTEREST get squashed at the start, and runs on late in an slashing-late-flashing-back-me-next-start-please-video-black-booker run - as predicted. Wish we could have bet on that. Follow 8-SMOKIN' JOEY going forward, drawn wide, dropped back, ran on OK on a track that favoured on pacers - and lots of improvement to come. Barriers 1,2,3 run the trifecta, and often inside barriers win this race, remember for next year. |
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