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| CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 8th Oct 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Few showers around, but not much genuine rain so this track should remain a genuine DEAD heading into the weekend. Suspect that after coping a bit of criticism about the track being so firm here last meeting that they might be a bit over generous with the watering as well and err on the side of caution. Caulfield Guineas Day, rail back to the TRUE can often favour leaders. However, it is a bit different this year with the additional meeting with the rail TRUE for Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Day. Normally this is a Sunday meeting with the rail well out to protect the inside. So basically they will be running on the same ground as last meeting which should even things out, and when Caulfield gets leaderish it is normally on sunny days with drying tracks and the weather looks just mild for Saturday. Still a chance it might tend towards on pacers early, but suspect we will get even, genuine racing. Definitely our favourite race day of the year, with the Caulfield Stakes, Toorak Handicap, Caulfield Guineas and Herbert Power normally great betting races with even fields. Don’t be scared to jump on some 20-1 shots today, sure to be some value winners. Of course this year the sprinting mare is going to be the focus and is probably going to draw a bumper crowd to spoil what is the last chance for a quiet race day before spring madness descends. Have included detailed form for all the feature races. Absolutely stack to bet on, barely know where to begin ! Spreading the bets out over the day with a full buffet of the betting options available. So far this year we are $100 ahead in the weekly bets, but we are going to place it all on the line and double up on the weekly betting portfolio as seems to be plenty of value around today. Funny enough we seem to have tipped 3 greys on top – so let’s hope for some Grey Power. RESULTS : Ends up a sunny drying day with track upgrades - and yet again Caulfield tends to favour those racing on the speed. Don't even know why you would bother to ride horses back in the field these days, pretty much every race meeting this spring has favoured those racing on the speed. We find most of the winners in the selections, but little value and we collect early in the Betting Portfolio then miss the money for the rest of the day. BEST BET : Race 8: 5-VALENTINE MISS $15 WIN 4th W=$2.30 Talented sprinting mare whose 1200M and Caulfield 1200M record is very impressive. Thereabouts in Group 1 sprints and only contesting a listed race today. 2nd up from a let up here, but last start at Caulfield she chased extremely hard out wide behind one that got a cosy run on the rails on a track that was probably favouring those racing on the speed. The first 3 that day spaced the rest of the field and she just looks really well suited here today, many of these are mixing their firm and she is talented and consistent. Draw middle barrier and should scoot down the middle of the straight and win this with any luck. Looks the winner, even in a big field. RESULTS : Starts very, very short, and hopelessly unlucky. Held up back in the field and struggles to get clear, once clear flies home. Definitely should have won, not sure about jockey tactics on a track that was favouring those racing on the speed. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-ALCOPOP $10 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 5: 5-ALCOPOP, 4-AT FIRST SIGHT (scr), 7-LION TAMER x $4 = $12 SCR=$8 Probably playing favourites a bit with this one but think he is vastly under rated. Has a powerful WFA sprint finish so even if the speed is not on here think he can put himself into the finish. Almost won last start at MV without even trying and Caulfield form is excellent. Back him to win, and save with the quinella on the other main dangers the (4) and the (7) and fairly confident these 3 will fight this race out. Go the Pop !. RESULTS : Hopelessly disappointing, and the favourite the (7) flops as well in a leader dominated race. Very out of normal for this one, so not sure what went wrong. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 12-MY SCOTSGREY $7 EW X NZ stayer who is coming along nicely over here being headed for the Melbourne Cup. Still fairly lightly raced with a good win strike rate, and should be right at peak now with 3 runs in from a let up. Two runs over here have been full of merit, finished on really well 1st up at Flemington from well back in strong form race, and then working home really well again out wide on a track that nothing was really making ground on last start. Should be ready to produce now with the 2500M run this time in. Big field so hopefully will get a genuine tempo, main problem is does tend to drop well back in his races, but from middle barrier would be good to see him ridden midfield or closer. Quite keen especially with $20 or so on offer. RESULTS : Pre race announcement that they would ride this one more forward. Sounds like a great idea to us! Then falls out of barriers and last out of the straight - always a great start to a race when that happens, but shows nothing anyway. RUNNING DOUBLE : Races 6,7 : 3,6,8,10,13 / 2, 4 x $1 = $10 2nd 6-KING'S ROSE W=$4.70, 3rd 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER / 1st 2-HELMET W=$2.10 Always plenty of value in the feature mile races so take the main chances into a running double with the top two chances in the Guineas. Should still pay OK with the Guineas being a keen betting race. RESULTS : Not far off these, but wouldn't have been much of a collect regardless. BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 12-SPIRITED EAGLE $4 WIN SCR $4 TRIFECTA : Race 9 : 4,12(scr) / 4,6,11,12,15 / 2,4,6,10,11,12,15 x 50 cents = $20 = 50% SCR=$14 1st 4-TESTA MY PATIENCE W=$3.00 / - / 3rd 6-UTAH SAINTS W=$5.10 Lets do something a little different here. Think the last race is down to two winning chances the (4) and the (12), who are actually stable mates. The (4) put in a huge run 1st up, then 2nd up just got a little bit too far back but was still very good late. Fitter for the 2 runs in and ready to win, looks the one to beat, but suspect he is going to start very short on the tote, like he did last start . Hence going for the (12) at value, still lightly raced and put in some great runs last Autumn, at the bottom of the weights here, fitter for the 2 runs in and stuck on very well down the long Sandown straight last start when sitting outside a leader all the way. So like the (12),but worried about the 4, so let’s have something the win and take a multiple trifecta around these two and try and score a nice collect. RESULTS : Top selection gets scratched, favourite wins, but not much value. QUINELLA : Race 2: 3-PLATELET, 6-THE FAIRY’S KISS x $5 1st 3-PLATELET W=$4.10, 6-THE FAIRY’S KISS 2nd W=$4.50 Quinella = $9.50 = 9.50 x 5 = $47.50 Just a warm up bet early in the day in a small field with two that will race on the speed and are going along OK. RESULTS : Nice start to the day and quinella never looks in doubt. Shame we couldn't find another collect for the day. QUINELLA : Race 7: 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW, 2-HELMET x $5 1st 2-HELMET W=$2.10 Suspect these two are going to fight out the main race so let’s chuck $5 on the quinella here as well. RESULTS : Favourite wins, other one very disappointing. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 9 : 14-STUDLEY PARK at around $5 SCR Taking on the Williams stable runners is just about automatic when you are looking to lay a horse, they so often start way under the odds, especially on the tote. This one has won 4 from 5 starts, so no slouch, but drops a long way back in his races and takes a very long time to wind up. Don’t think dropping back in distance here suits, there isn’t much speed here at all, drawn an outside barrier and likely to drop well back and need a lot of luck. Last start at Sandown was incredibly lucky to win when $1.85 favourite, took the whole length of the straight to grind home and just happened to have his neck stuck out at the right time in a blanket finish. Not suited today and happy to lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA : Race 4: 6-BLACK CAVIAR / 8-PLATINUM SKYE / 2,7,9 x $2.50 = 83.33% 1st 6-BLACK CAVIAR W=$1.10 / 4th 8-PLATINUM SKYE W=$41.30 / 2nd 9-KARUTA QUEEN W=$8.80, 3rd 2-STIRLING GROVE W=$22.70 TRIFECTA : Race 4: 6-BLACK CAVIAR /2,7,9 / 8-PLATINUM SKYE x $2.50 = 83.33% No, it’s not 50 cents each way on BLACK CAVAIR. Even in these races with short priced favourites you can still often get a $20- $30 trifecta multiple times which is much more exciting than taking the short odds. A lot of people will try and get the trifecta straight out here, but they will all be focussed on the (9) and there is no value there. It seems looking at the champs races it is normally those racing on speed that stick on into the placings – think the ill fated WARM LOVE and CRYSTAL LILY. So the value here is the (8) who is speedy and will go forward with the (9) – and oh look she is a grey too and that is our theme of the day ! Take her and rotate her through the placings with the main place chances. RESULTS : Value runner runs pretty well and only just fades in the last 50M to miss 3rd. Still no value in the trifecta anyway. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $73.50 NET : $-26.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-ADAMANTIUM, 5-AMERCIAN DREAM, 6-SORT THIS OUT Race 2: 3-PLATELET, 6-THE FAIRY’S KISS, 1-EMERALD DOWNS Race 3: 12-MY SCOTSGREY, 14-SHEWAN, 15-TWO FOR TEA Race 4: 6-BLACK CAVIAR, 8-PLATINUM SKYE, 7-KULGRINDA Race 5: 5-ALCOPOP, 4-AT FIRST SIGHT, 7-LION TAMER Race 6: 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 6-KING'S ROSE, 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC Race 7: 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW, 2-HELMET, 1-MANAWANUI Race 8: 5-VALENTINE MISS, 2-GYBE, 16-CANDY STRIPES Race 9: 12-SPIRITED EAGLE, 4-TESTA MY PATIENCE, 6-UTAH SAINTS |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ADAMANTIUM 1st W=$2.70 5-AMERCIAN DREAM 3rd W=$3.40 6-SORT THIS OUT |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-PLATELET 1st W=$4.10 6-THE FAIRY’S KISS 2nd W=$4.50 1-EMERALD DOWNS Quinella : $9.50 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-MY SCOTSGREY 14-SHEWAN 1st W=$3.80 15-TWO FOR TEA |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.10 8-PLATINUM SKYE 7-KULGRINDA |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-ALCOPOP 4-AT FIRST SIGHT SCR 7-LION TAMER |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER 3rd W=$6.50 6-KING'S ROSE 2nd W=$4.70 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW 2-HELMET 1st W=$2.10 1-MANAWANUI 2nd W=$5.80 Quinella : $5.10 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-VALENTINE MISS 2-GYBE 16-CANDY STRIPES |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-SPIRITED EAGLE SCR 4-TESTA MY PATIENCE 1st W=$3.00 6-UTAH SAINTS 3rd W=$5.10 |
| RACE 5: CAULFIELD STAKES GROUP 1 2000M WFA |
| Tips: 5-ALCOPOP 4-AT FIRST SIGHT SCR 7-LION TAMER |
| Others: 8 Pace: SLOW Leaders : Handy : 2-DESCARADO, 6-SINCERO , 10-AVIENUS, 11-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 7-LION TAMER Back : 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 3-MIGHTY HIGH, 4-AT FIRST SIGHT, 5-ALCOPOP, 9-SAHARA SUN Chances: 4-AT FIRST SIGHT is one of the Williams boat horse brigade who seems to be coming into form at the right time. Fitter for the 2 runs in, stepping up in distance, and really have to like the way he chased down the current Caulfield Cup favourite on the line at Caulfield last start. And that one is just about the best going around at the moment. Has been dropping well back in his races, but can’t see any reason why they can’t ride him a bit more handy today, and should be ready to produce now with the 2 runs in and the run over the distance. Was SCR from the Turnbull last week - not quite sure why? - may pay to find out if you want to have a serious plonk on him. Just think he is one on the way up and he is about to strike form, and really like how close he got to DECEMBER DRAW last start and suspect he is going to give that one a solid run for his money when they meet next. Strong chance. SCR 5-ALCOPOP is one we have a lot of time for and think is rather under rated. Fitter for the 3 runs in, Adel win 2 starts back was excellent as it was against a strong leaders racing pattern, which is so often the case in Adel these days. Extremely quiet ride by the jockey last start, sat out the back, he didn't even try to go for him before the home turn – and MV isn’t exactly a long straight, didn’t try to put him into the race, and just worked home down the outside late like it was a barrier trial. Drop back type, but out to the 2000M will suit and he has a class WFA sprint finish. Some of his best races have been here at Caulfield, like when he dropped them in the Herbert Power the year he was on the rise, or his devastating finish in this race last year when he was only beaten by SO YOU THINK. Best ridden very quiet at the back of the field, so would want them to be finishing on OK and to get some pace in this. However, he has a class WFA sprint finish so even if the pace isn’t on suspect he can finish over the top of them here. Needs a firmish track too, but should get that. Has a stack of ability and have a bit of time for this one. Strong chance. 7-LION TAMER could be on his way to becoming the WFA horse of the spring – and we do desperately need one with a different horse winning every week at the moment. Absolutely slaughtered them in the VRC Derby, assumption there was that he was a fantastic wet tracker, but he came here last start in the Underwood, 2nd up, off a trip across the Tasman and let down and reeled in the field with a touch of class. Looks a horse on the way up. 3rd up and up 200M, actually no reason why he can’t race handy here in a small field with not much speed - so we might see some of his rivals giving him a head start here. Looks the one to beat on form, the $3 or so on offer is probably getting towards the bottom end of his odds though. Strong chance. 8-PLAYING GOD is one we are a bit dubious about. Always shown a stack of ability and thought he would step up and be a major player this spring, but think he has been disappointing so far. Pretty much all of his runs this time in have been identical, he has loomed out wide like he is going to swoop into the race and run away with it – but died on the run. That is 3 times in a row he has done that now. Should really be at peak now with the 4 runs in, and the trainer has said he is gradually getting him to peak condition, but just not sure if he is kidding us ?, or if he is just about to strike form. Will drop well back here, probably doesn’t get the speed he wants in this, and almost certainly will pull out around the home turn and threaten to run on. But will he ? Or won’t he ? Wrote him off last start, prepared to give him another chance today, but rough only. Rough. Place: 6-SINCERO is a Sydney visitor who has an amazing win strike rate and has stepped up a notch this spring winning a few of the Sydney early spring feature races. Started favourite in the Epsom last start and appeared the inside barrier and big weight were against in the big field. Should be able to position handy here in a race with not much obvious speed. Is out to the 2000M for the 1st time though, probably one of the several hundred that seem to be heading towards the Cox Plate this year. Meeting some quality opposition here, 1st time at the trip and just prefer to see how he lines up against these at this stage. Place. 11-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN has been a bookies pin up this spring, beaten at $2.10 and $1.85 favourite in 1st two runs this time in. Undefeated as a 3YO filly in classic races, but so often these types do not go on, and the hype and the odds on offer about her early this spring were just plain silly. Held up for runs 1st up - but would have never beaten the winner even with a clear run. Every chance 2nd up when just raced plain flat in a race she really should have had at her mercy. 3rd up was actually a bit better, she was whacking away and racing a little erratically - oh - and just realised she started favourite in the Underwood Stakes as well. Nuts ! Few gear changes here to try and get her back to form. Hard to get enthused, but there isn't much speed here so if they ride her forward she might show something – so let’s go a rough place chance. Sneaking feeling she is going to do something today. Place 2nd W=$10.70 Sacking: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU is pretty much the best miler in the country, tough, honest and reliable and you can back him with confidence in the right races. Small WFA fields, early in his preparation, tracks with some give, and most important 1400M to 1600M. Once you get pass 1600M you are starting to get into the unknown territory. Took off early to get around slow speed and on pacer bias 1st up and was dying on his run on the line, but still full of merit. Totally cramped for room 2nd up when just couldn't get clear and he definitely needs to be coming wide, late and hard with a clear run, so can forget that run. 2000M is the query, he did win this race 2 years ago - but did get dream split against pretty ordinary opposition that day. Ridden forward in this race last year against normal pattern and was fading on the line. Run in last year's Cox Plate was solid so the 2000M sits in the unknown category, but willing to take him on today over the trip, with a fair few on the way up in this field. Risking SCR 2-DESCARADO is last year's Caulfield Cup winner who has been struggling for form a little since that race. Autumn form was only fair, just the 3 runs and wasn't too far off, but probably expected better. Had 3 trials over August so you would have thought he would have been fairly forward 1st up but didn't really show much – although did have a big weight to contend with. Best form is on wet tracks and probably wants a bit more rain around to be a genuine chance in this. Can race handy and go forward which is always a plus in these sort of fields, and he will probably improve today, but probably just want to see him go around once more before we decide how he is going. No 1st W=$13.60 3-MIGHTY HIGH is a Hong Kong visitor out here on a Cups mission. Still fairly lightly raced for a 6YO and maintains a good win/place strike rate. He did run home OK 1st up here 2 weeks ago, but find it hard to get over enthused about the run. The race caller glowed about it - to be realistic he ran on a little, late, behind two that have been struggling for form badly, in a field with very little depth that was stack full of non winners. Guess he was carry a whopping 61.5kgs and drops back to WFA here, but finding it hard to get enthused about last run. No 4th W=$8.60 9-SAHARA SUN is an overseas visitor and these ones are popping up all over the place now. Bloody internationals taking our jobs ! - Herbert Power, Caulfield Stakes, Geelong Cup - does make it hard to do the form against the locals and to be honest would prefer it if they could just have their one run in the Melbourne Cup, get their $60,000 for finishing 6th and head on home again. Just impossible to line up, have to rely on the market and would probably want to sit on the speed here to be any chance. No 10-AVIENUS is one we know pretty well and she had a bumper spring last year when she probably should have won the Toorak Handicap, and then put up a huge run in the Cox Plate when she did run into it before the home turn before fading. It did appear that that run did break her as she really struggled for form during the Autumn and did suspect she was finished. Taken a few runs to find form this time in as well, finally showed something here last start when did get a dream sit behind the leader - but we have real question marks about the strength of that field, it was packed full to the brim with out of form non winners. Can camp on the speed here, and the speed isn't likely to be fast so that is a plus. But we think she really struggles at the 2000M, she had every chance in the JRA Cup last year and was beaten a long way from home and bit surprised to see she is still entered for the Cox Plate this year. Passing. 2nd W=$45.20 Summary: Normally this race is a bit of a non event, with an extremely small field and a short priced favourite (although the short priced favourites in this race do have a habit of getting rolled). Fantastic betting race this year, very even field with no stand outs, and plenty of value to be had about your fancy. There is no natural leader in this race, so the speed could be very slow which might make it hard for the backmarkers. Wonder if they might go forward to the lead with 11-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN and try and run her into some form? Else it is between 2-DESCARADO, 10-AVIENUS on the speed with the 7-LION TAMER and 6-SINCERO sitting off these. Despite all that we are very keen on the 5-ALCOPOP here at backable odds. Just think he is vastly under rated and he has a fantastic finishing burst that is up to WFA quality, even if the tempo is slow. Caulfield form is excellent, ran a huge race in this race last year and almost won last start at MV without even trying. 4-AT FIRST SIGHT the one to watch out for, on the up and really liked the run here last start – think he is going places. Would like to see him racing a bit more forward and he might be one that needs a genuine tempo. 7-LION TAMER the other obvious danger, should sit on the speed and could go right on with it, just might end up rather short, especially on the tote in this. Very keen to bet, having a win bet on the (4) and (5) and saving with a box quinella on the (4),(5),(7) and seems to be plenty of value here. Shame that WHOBE has been scratched has taken some of the value out of the other runners we like. One to risk: 3-MIGHTY HIGH 4th W=$8.60 Roughie: 8-PLAYING GOD The Key: WFA class runner RESULTS : Funny race, the 7-LION TAMER starts a ridiculously short price at W=$2.60, but our main picks are extremely disappointing. This race does have an extremely poor record for short priced favourites over the last 10 years and is often won by the leader - see our comments in the 2009 Caulfield Guineas form guide . Shame we didn't pay any attention to that BEFORE the race. |
| RACE 6: TOORAK HANDICAP GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER 3rd W=$6.50 6-KING'S ROSE 2nd W=$4.70 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC |
| Others: 10, 3 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 1-KING MUFHASA, 10-FAST CLIP Handy : 2-TOORAK TOFF , 4-DAO DAO , 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 11-LORD PYRUS Back : 3-WALL STREET , 5-WOORIM , 6-KING'S ROSE , 7-YOSEI, 9-TORIO'S QUEST, 12-DREAMAWAY, 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC, 14-BLACKIE Chances: 3-WALL STREET is a class NZ miler and you have to love 9 wins from 16 starts over the mile, the majority in these feature races which are very hard to win. 3rd up and should be close to peak now with the 2 runs in. Drawn well, drops back and the NZers are going well this spring so has to be considered. Chance. 4th W=$19.10 6-KING'S ROSE has been one of the stars of the spring and has been rather unheralded. Over from NZ with good form, still bizarre that one of Moody’s can start relatively unsupported 1st start in Aus and win like she did in the Memsie. Love the way she put herself into the race there, very professional race horse. Again in the Stock Stakes she put herself into the race at the right time and held off a strong challenge late. Jockey has been concerned that she has been day dreaming when hitting the front and hence the winkers go on today. Stocks Stakes has been the strongest form race of the spring, PINKER PINKER ran well in the Epsom, LADY LYNETTE won at Flem last week, SOUTHERN SPEED almost won the Underwood. She was entered for the Epsom as well but was SCR with a mild setback – although she had drawn barrier 18 so think they probably wanted to scratch her anyways. Think she is a pretty serious horse on the up and would love to back her in the Cox Plate if they end up going there. Guess the only query is coming off a slight set back and drawn barrier 1 she might get a little squashed up in the field but looks the one to beat in this. Last start winner over 1600M is big plus with many of these stepping up in distance. Strong chance. 2nd W=$4.70 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER is one we have a lot of time for, but we are beginning to wonder if maybe he is just going to tease us with placings, 4ths and 5ths in these feature mile type races. Surprise runner of the spring as was treated as a bit of a novelty joke going into the Cox Plate, but his form through the Toorak and Emirates was first rate. Autumn form was fair without being fantastic. However, both runs back this time in have been excellent. 1st up dropped well back and was coming very strongly down the outside in a blanket finish. 2nd up here last start in the Rupert Clarke he got blocked for a run about 150M out, but was finishing again with a fair bit of gusto and it was a run of some promise – probably challenges the place getters with a clear passage. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and like that he has had the 2 x 1400M runs going into this. Drawn outside last 2 starts, but drawn well today and no reason why he cannot go forward in this. Raced handy in the Emirates and fought out the race really well down the straight, probably hit the lead about 50M out. He is tough and honest, but might just be a little on paced so beginning to wonder if he has the class to win one of these, but have to like the last 2 runs and give him a very strong chance here. Strong chance. 3rd W=$6.50 10-FAST CLIP has been going along OK in Sydney and maintains a good win and place strike rate. Can go forward here and that is a big plus in these sort of races which was always full of drop back runners on. Fitter for the 2 runs in, proven over this distance and further, shouldn’t get that much pressure in the lead and looks a strong chance in this at the bottom of the weights. Go well. 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC is a very talented dry track 1400M to 1600M horse and she needs big tracks and for them to be running on, but she is very consistent when she strikes form. Fitter for the 2 runs in and she was way over the odds on the tote last start at W=$112. Absolutely flew home end of last start and was running out of room on the line. Drawn out there, will drop back, but she is best coming hard and late down the middle of the track. Should be fitter now with the 2 runs in and she is a very strong chance today – the $20 or so on offer looks great odds. Strong chance. Place: 2-TOORAK TOFF has always had a touch of class and made a grand comeback from his throat operation with feature Group 1 win last start. Jockey won the race there by going forward on him rather than dropping back. Note jockey change today though Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up run was excellent too when poking through on the inside down the straight. Won last start by going forward, whilst quite a few of these dropped back and had no luck. Drawn a nice barrier and can go forward again here. Worth noting he has had 2 starts over the 1600M for no result, though he has not been far away in both those runs. Up in weights too, goes up in weight whilst most of these from the Rupert Clarke drop in weights - so meets quite a few worse off . Does have a stack of ability , but maybe out to the 1600M, which is a query, at the top of the weights probably tending towards place. Should go forward and be in this for a long way though. Place. 4-DAO DAO is a very honest dry track 1400M to 1600M horse. 2nd up here off Rupert Clarke Stakes run which was fair when caught wide. Solid 1600M form – and so many horses competing in these 1600M feature races often have poor stats over the distance cause they are such tough, competitive affairs. In the finish 6 from 7 2nd up, and 2nd up last time in he kicked to the lead in the straight and it really took everything WHOBE had to run him down. Probably just the barrier against him here today in a tough even field, likes to race handy and may get caught wide, but is still some rough chance if you want a bolter for the quadrellas. Rough. 5-WOORIM is one we think is a bit of a money sucker – have to admit we backed him a few times last spring when he kept getting too far back and running on late, and that sort of racing pattern just means you are going to get beaten more times than not. Nice win 1st up at MV with big weight, but the track was strongly favouring swoopers that day. Didn’t like the firm track 2nd up, but wasn’t interested regardless as a drop back horse in a big field anyways, and strange placement to go to a MV night meeting (which is just about always a strong leaders bias), where he ran home really well with a big weight. Love how the excuse for last start was “didn’t handle the wet track” and the excuse the start before was “didn’t handle the firm track”. Talk about picky ! Should get conditions to suit today and should be right at peak now with the 3 runs in and the 1600M run under his belt. Interestingly last start was his 1st run over the 1600M, but no reason why he shouldn’t run out the trip as is always finishing on strongly. Would want them to be running on, and would want a solid pace, and just always seems to be coming that bit too late – not sure the pace here is going to be all that great. Rough chance, but prefer place. Sacking: 1-KING MUFHASA is a very consistent NZ miler, only problem is he keeps coming over here and leaving his form back at home. It’s on the kitchen bench – next to the phone. NZ form is looking strong this year and has form around the current Cox Plate favourite. Jumps and races handy is a big plus as often these feature miles are stacked full of drop back, run on types. Was out here in Spring 2009 when didn’t really show that much, and there are another 2-3 Australian trips floating around that are similar. Bloody NZ bludgers coming over to Aus for a good time. Will probably be in this for along way, but need to wait till he shows some form over here before getting on. No 1st W=$9.70 7-YOSEI had a pretty good 3YO season when she won the Thousand Guineas here (after getting a dream run through the field), after flashing home late and unlucky quite a few times. Picked up a major in QLD over the winter, but her issue is always going to be that she gets so far back, so she needs the speed on, she needs them to be running on and she needs luck. Fitter for the 2 runs in and up to the mile should suit, but maybe just needs one more and hasn’t really shown any form so far this spring. No 9-TORIO'S QUEST is a Sydney visitor who is 2nd and up 300M and we just prefer them to have 3 runs in, a run over the distance or 2 x 1400M runs leading into these tough miles. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, at the bottom of the weights, drop back and run on type so plenty to like here. Just suspect he might drop back and run on late and find one or two better and prefer to get on after one more run. Passing. 11-LORD PYRUS does have some ability and best win was here this track and distance when scooted to the lead in a race with little pace. Set for the Australian Cup after that but obviously 1600M is as far as he wants realistically. Ran on a little 1st up, went to go forward 2nd up but was disappointing. Up in distance again here, and up in class and hard to get enthused on current form. No 12-DREAMAWAY is a WA visitor who showed a bit of ability over there so worth a crack at the big time. 1st up at Flem had no luck at all when was blocked for runs the entire length of the straight and then 2nd up even effort only in the Rupert Clarke when did strike some trouble, but not sure she was finishing on all the strongly regardless. Another drop back type, bit hard to tell exactly how well she is going at the moment and if she is going to measure up, maybe just worth a rough, rough chance as a bit of an unknown, but probably prefer to wait till she shows some form now in Melb so that we know she measures up. No 14-BLACKIE has shown a bit of potential and eye catching run running on 1st up at MV. Rather flat 2nd up when in the market, but really don’t want to be on the runners on in those sort of races regardless. 3rd up here and up 200M, drawn inside, but will drop well back and have to come around the whole field. Could step up, but think want to see this one again before getting on just to check how he measures up. Passing. SCR Summary: These feature mile races are always tough, even races and great betting affairs with each way odds the field and often you can spot a long shot winner. Generally they are won by something running on late, but just as often you will get a swag of drop back horses who have no luck, get held up for runs and finish on too late. Pace here should be genuine enough, 1-KING MUFHASA, 10-FAST CLIP can both go forward so we should get a genuine tempo, and 2-TOORAK TOFF , 4-DAO DAO (wide), 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 11-LORD PYRUS should all be up close to the speed. Keen to give 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER one more chance here, both runs this time in have been excellent, he has been around in these sort of races before, probably wants to hunt forward a bit from inside barrier though – or wait for the patented ALLEZ WONDER dream split in the straight. Last run was outstanding, came from well back and if not baulked for runs about the 150M would have been right in the finish. 6-KING'S ROSE is one of the horses of the spring so far, Stocks Stakes form is outstanding and was keen to follow her what ever she contested the rest of the spring – just gone a little cold on her today drawn barrier 1 in big field, coming off a set back, but putting in based on trust that she has the class. 10-FAST CLIP should be around the finish, rolling forward and fitter for the 2 runs in, making his own luck whilst those back in the field start preparing the list of excuses for this week. And very solid chance to 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC who we just can’t resist at the odds on offer so putting her into the selection just ahead of the (10). She looks great value, ready to peak, running on late. Always a great betting race and plenty of value about. One to risk: 1-KING MUFHASA 1st W=$9.70 Roughie: 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC The Key: Fit and ready for the 1600M RESULTS : The One To Risk gets up and wins - and we knew we were in trouble even before the race with the on pacers winning. Frustratingly our top two picks loom up and run on and only just miss. Always reckon it is a big plus to have had a 1600M run going into these feature miles and note that the topweight did. 2-TOORAK TOFF sits handy and fails to run out the 1600M. 8-LUEN YAT FOREVER honest as ever, just not sure he is ever going to win one of these feature miles. Keep following 13-MAJESTIC MUSIC, if she ever gets a track where the runners on can figure she will win a nice race. |
| RACE 7: CAULFIELD GUINEAS GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW 2-HELMET 1st W=$2.10 1-MANAWANUI 2nd W=$5.80 Quinella : $5.10 |
| Others: Pace: EVEN Leaders : 1-MANAWANUI Handy : 2-HELMET, 6-SECRET HILLS, 7-HUEGILL Back : 3-SMART MISSILE, 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW, 5-SPECTER Chances: 1-MANAWANUI is the under rated leader from Sydney. Has now won his last 5 starts on end, but doesn’t get anywhere near the publicity of his Sydney rivals the (2) and the (3). Won in a jog trot barrier trial race against a very small and weak field last start. Start before that beat home both the (2) and the (3) – and probably starts longer odds than them both here today. Bit of give in the ground will suit, will jump and lead in a small field with not that much pressure up front and a lot to like about this one today. By the way – how can he have had 6 starts and never raced against a field greater than 9 runners ? – gotta love Sydney racing. Question might just be if one is stronger at the end of 1600M and probably prefer the track to be a genuine dead, but will have to go close. Chance. 2nd W=$5.80 2-HELMET has always had a huge boom on him, but did have a nasty habit of doing a few things wrong. Given a few jumps over hurdles to sharpen him up before last start and that seemed to make the world of difference. Last start win was totally dominant – camped on a tear away leader, but was always travelling and won in super fast time on the firm track. Should be at peak now with the 3 runs in. A lot of boom horses have gone belly up in this race though, so think he is probably not the best value. Best run from the Guineas Prelude often wins this race, that form holds up, and you always need to watch those dropping in weight from that race – and he ticks all those boxes, gave the (5), (6) a few kgs, and still totally smashed them. Probably best Prelude win for a while, and he is the best weighted from that race so plenty to like here. Much has been made that he ran the 2nd fastest 1400M ever here last start – 2nd only to his sire EXCEED AND EXCEL - who won the Rupert Clarke as a 3YO before going on – and – and – and - getting beaten in this race when he failed to run out the mile ! Guess this one has won over 1600M though so proven at the distance. Should get a perfect on pace sit here in a small field and does look the one to beat. One to beat.1st W=$2.10 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW has been coming along very nicely this spring and looks to have a bundle of talent. Grey who likes to drop back but is very strong at the end of his races and certain to run out a very strong 1600M. Should have won at Flem 2 starts back when was last on the home turn and weaved his way through the field to only just miss on the line. Impressive win in weaker race at MV last Friday night, but it was a dynamite leaders track that night and he managed to sit back in the field and always had them in his sights for a soft win. Great ride by the jockey with confidence to come from back against the racing pattern. Would want them to be running on OK today - but think we should be OK. Small field, not a huge tempo and main problem is probably would prefer a tough 1600M slog rather than a sit sprint 1600M. Has form in all the right races, he is going extremely well and looks a big danger here though and might just run out the 1600M better than these - and you so often want a strong finisher in this race. Strong chance. Place: 5-SPECTER is coming along nicely and appears to have plenty of upside. Should be at peak with 3 runs in and drops back and is always strong at the end of his races. Good run here in the Prelude, but the (2) has beaten him comfortably that day and he meets that one 2kgs worse off here for a 6L defeat - so hard to see him turning that around. The (4) probably should have won at Flem 2 starts back , so his main problem is that even though he seems to be going along really well he just seems to be safely held in this field. Will finish on strongly though so definite place chance. Place 4th W=$42.50 6-SECRET HILLS is an honest on pacer who again seems to be going along pretty well with form in the right races. Fitter for the 3 runs in, got perfect sit on the speed at Flem, shot clear - and still got run down by two going around here, when had every chance. Last start got perfect sit behind the (2) off a very fast speed and actually came out and looked a danger half way down the straight, but the winner was too good. Small field, will lob handy and make his own luck and has been placed last 3 so can hardly fault form. But just suspect at the end of 1600M there are a few others here who are going to be too strong and this one has not been able to win even with all the favours last two starts. Solid place chance though. 7-HUEGILL at least represents a new form line from the majority of these so may be worth consideration on that alone. Coming along well, not the best ride 1st up, taken to the provincials for a soft win 2nd up and well supported at Sandown in a race where a few had some ability. Question is whether he is up to this class, but he can race handy, make his own luck, has ability and importantly hasn't met this lot before so think that makes him the best rough chance in this. Rough 3rd W=$25.70 Sacking: 3-SMART MISSILE is the super boom horse from Sydney and that automatically screams that you just want to take him on in this. Got a powerful finishing burst matched only by his regular jockey’s regular outbursts about how good he is. Threw away the race 2 starts go when wanting to drift out towards the end of the race. Never suited at all in the Rupert Clarke Stakes when backed into utterly ridiculous odds - as a drop back horse in a capacity field. He did run on very well back in the field when the race is all over, but so often those are just teasing runs. Normal racing style is to drop back so small field here is going to suit. Definitely has a stack of ability, does appear more of a sprinter though and question is whether his finishing burst is going to be as good at the end of the 1600M trip and how much of a head start he is going to be giving a few very smart ones in this. Almost certain to get well backed and think that means you want to take him on a value basis alone. No 8-GENERAL OFFER is the rank outsider of the field and is probably over the odds at $200 in a small field. Fitter for the 3 runs in, but safely held last 2 starts in weaker company form doesn't look up to this. No Summary: Usually one of the great races of the spring as all the boom Sydney 3YOs come down to Melbourne and always a great betting race. Rule for this race is to not believe the hype and stick to the form. The Guineas Prelude is just about always the best form reference for this, stick to the best run and those getting the best of the weights from that race – which points screamingly at 2-HELMET. Although it can be a leaders track on this day, traditionally when you think of the Caulfield Guineas you want a strong miler finishing out down the middle of the track in a high pressure race, although we are normally talking big fields when that happens. Worth noting that 5 of the last 10 winners have drawn barrier 4 or inside, but they have generally been in big fields. Small field so pace is unlikely to be strong here. 1-MANAWANUI should lead easily, with 2-HELMET, 6-SECRET HILLS sitting handy and 7-HUEGILL just behind them. On form lines 2-HELMET does stand out as the one to beat, is probably at about the right odds at the moment at around $2.50, but probably wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that. Should sit right on the speed here, coming into this with a weight drop and off a very impressive performance. Has done stuff wrong in his races before though and just wonder if he did appreciate the genuine pace last start. We are just going to just tip towards 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW here though, really going well and suspect he is going to be the strongest over the 1600M, as long as they are running on OK. Just seems great value at the $8 or so on offer. 1-MANAWANUI with a soft lead the other obvious danger. Should be a keen betting race and you can almost guarantee the money is going to come for the 3-SMART MISSILE, but that just means better odds for the rest of us , happy to go around him and to narrow it down to just the (2) and the (4). Suspect these two are going to fight this race out. One to risk: 3-SMART MISSILE 5th W=$3.20 Roughie: 7-HUEGILL 3rd W=$25.70 The Key: Run out a strong 1600M RESULTS : Interesting tactics on the favourite to burn to the lead and ride aggressively, managed to hold off his main rival to the line but would have been ribbed about the ride for generations to come if he had got beaten. 2-HELMET has won his last two races ridden aggressively and burning along, just not sure that is the way to win a Cox Plate. 4-CHASE THE RAINBOW very disappointing. Bubble finally pops on 3-SMART MISSILE - thank goodness - there is always an incredibly over hyped Sydney 3YO in this race, it is tradition. |
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