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For one week only, deposit $50 and get a $150 Free Bet.
The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer is valid for one week only and closes when they jump in the Caulfield Cup.
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| CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 13th Oct 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Up and down weather in Melbourne this week, as spring tries to break through, but the weather bureau keeps getting it wrong – predicting lots of showers and rain which more often than not do not come. Showers and rain forecast through Thurs and Fri into a few showers on Saturday, but doubt we will get worse than a genuine dead track. Bit of rain Thursday, but track still rated a DEAD(4) with just showers to come Friday/Saturday, so assume a genuine dead track at worse. Caulfield has been extremely leaderish of late, most of this spring, and especially on drying days with a good track. Bit of rain may even things out for this meeting, and worth noting that they already raced on a TRUE track here two weeks ago (which was very leader biased) so that may even things out as well. But often Caulfield Guineas Day does favour on pacers, so assume an even pattern, but be ready to adjust if the early races favour the leaders. Might be a bit of a cold blustery day too so just see if that affects racing patterns. Normally Caulfield Guineas Day is a great day to have a bet, with lots of tough even fields to stick your head into and sort out the form. Bit unusual this year in that we have quite a few races with short priced favourites which makes it a little dull from a betting point of view. The few races that don’t have short priced favourites are wide, wide open. Again do our best to find some at reasonable odds for the weekly betting portfolio. RESULTS: Track races fairly, they stick on OK on the rails in the first few races, but later in the day the runners on can win and there are some seriously strong finishing bursts. We are spot on in our form previews, taking on MORE JOYOUS and finally snare a decent collect in the Betting Portfolio BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 8-SPIRIT SONG $5 EW 2nd W=$19.80, P=$3.60 = 3.60 x 5 = $18 QUINELLA : Race 6: 8-SPIRIT SONG - 7-SOLZHENITSYN x $2 1st 7-SOLZHENITSYN W=$4.90, 2nd 8-SPIRIT SONG W=$19.80. Quinella = $41.40 x $2 = $81.80 QUINELLA : Race 6: 8-SPIRIT SONG - 9-TOKUGAWA x $2 2nd 8-SPIRIT SONG W=$19.80 We are happy to back the ones down at the bottom of the weights in the feature mile. This mare is super tough, racing well, probably a little under rated we think and has an excellent 1600M record. Into feature Group 1 but gets a nice weight drop from mares class where has been carrying big weights. Should position just behind the speed here and likely to be in the finish. Just in case the favourite bombs out, take some value quinellas with the (7) and (9) who appear to be the other light weight chances. Currently great value at around $16. RESULTS: Spot on with this tip and we almost pull off a major coup when as predicted 8-SPIRIT SONG positions perfectly behind the speed, kicked through on the turn and hit the lead for most of the straight, looking the winner about 100M out. Have to admit we went the early crow too - bit embarrassing. But we took on the favourite MORE JOYOUS which meant there was a nice quinella to be had about the light weight chances. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 10-MR O’CEIRIN $3 WIN X QUINELLA: Race 8: 10-MR O’CEIRIN, 8-EXCEPTIONALLY x $2 3rd 8-EXCEPTIONALLY W=$6.80 QUINELLA : Race 8: 3,7,8,10,14 boxed x 50 cents = $5 3rd 8-EXCEPTIONALLY W=$6.80 We have taken this one on last 2 starts, had been happy to let him run till he had a few runs in, but keen to get on today. His two runs in have been excellent, racing on the speed under pressure and he showed a fair bit when he kicked on the turn here last start. 2 runs in and should be ready to produce now, and a little bit of give in the ground suits. The only question mark is there does seem to be a fair bit of speed here, so jockey might just want to take a sit from outside barrier rather than go forward. The main danger is the 8-EXCEPTIONALLY who looked a moral last week before she was scratched, pace on here will suit, outside barrier no issue, will be flying home again. So back the (10) straight out, take a quinella with the (8) and a box quinella as there is sure to be a roughie somewhere in the finish in a big field. RESULTS: Goes to the lead but huge amount of pressure up front, which was always going to be a danger here, and the on pacers knock themselves out and set it up for the back makers. 8-EXCEPTIONALLY runs on well extremely late again BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-GENERALIFE $3 EW X There is a short priced favourite in this race the (10) who is going to be very hard to beat, but is also going to start very, very short. Bit of pressure up front today so they might take a sit on the favourite. The speed on is going to suit this one – as long as they can run on OK today, really hasn’t done much wrong in his 4 starts so far and got too far back and flashed home late at MV. If they run along here, and they can run on he is a good chance to come over the top of them. Prefer to have something each way at around $8 rather than backing the short priced favourite. RESULTS: Positions just behind the lead and looks like has something to give in the straight but just looked to be out sprinted. Keep following maybe over slightly further. QUINELLA: Race 7: 1-PIERRO, 7-AWESOME BRO x $5 2nd 1-PIERRO W=$1.20 The short priced favourite looks close to unbeatable in the main race, but think the only possible danger is the 7-AWESOME BRO who we think was the best run out of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude which is normally the best form lead up race. Fairly confident they run the quinella and seeing the (7) is currently fourth pick in the market is might still pay OK. Else have a confident place bet on the (7) at the best odds you can find. RESULTS: Upset in the Guineas, but thought the 7-AWESOME BRO was pretty disappointing beaten a decent space. BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 14-SERENE STAR, 16-SPOT ON MAGGIE $2.50 EW 1st 14-SERENE STAR W=$8.70, P=$2.80 = $11.50 x 2.50 = $28.75 Happy to back two at odds in the last, and if you are losing and looking for a get out these two might be the way to go. The (14) has a really good win strike rate and zoomed through on the rails in the straight at MV last start and ran into a dead end. The (16) is fitter for the 2 runs in and has been running on really well in her races and looks ready to do something. Stable had her entered for a Group 2 race last week but was emergency so didn’t get a run, but obviously they think she is going along OK. Stack of speed in this race, both of these are drawn well and will drift back but are strong finishers and quite keen to have something on at the $12 and $35 respectively. Make sure you put these two in your quaddies. Would be a very nice way to finish off the day if we are correct ! RESULTS: Nice way to get out in the last - and huge win from this one. Was held up back in the field 200M out and looked gone, but came with an amazing finishing burst to win. Might be up to bigger and better things - this was a very impressive win. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 2-GATEWOOD at around $3.50 7th W=$4.00 Lightly raced international who looks like he is going to start a well supported favourite here, Up against a big, tough even field, and sure their stayers go better than ours, but really you are just guessing and prefer to see them run down here before getting on. Much rather prefer to back something whose form we have seen and can line up rather than blindly betting on unknowns. Seems poor value in a very big, even field at the odds currently on offer. Happy to risk. RESULTS: Race gets won by the other international. It is kinda funny how often these plunges on the internationals don't come off - but the international at the longer odds wins. Just goes to show it doesn't make sense to bet blind. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 6: 6-OCEAN PARK / 7-SABRAGE / FIELD x $3 = 60% 1st 6-OCEAN PARK W=$1.40 TRIFECTA: Race 6: 6-OCEAN PARK / FIELD / 7-SABRAGE x $2 = 40% 1st 6-OCEAN PARK W=$1.40 Realistically the favourite should win Race 6, going to be very short though and quite a few favourites have gone under in this race. Suspect the 7-SABRAGE is going to put in a run today, so let’s try and get a trifecta by roving him through the placings with the favourite winning. Small field and can be a funny run race so go the field in the other placing as something silly might lob into a place. RESULTS: Short priced favourite wins, but value runner does nothing. RESULT: PROFIT SPENT: $50 RETURN: $128.55 NET: $+78.55 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-SMOKIN’JOEY, 5-VEEWAP, 8-SEA LORD Race 2: 7-GENERALIFE, 10-SNITZERLAND, 5-LANKAN RUPEE Race 3: 2-HOSS AMOR, 8-SATURN ROCK, 14-ZORIA Race 4: 1-BUFFERING, 3-FIRST COMMAND, 4-PAMPELONNE Race 5: 6-OCEAN PARK, 7-SABRAGE, 2-SINCERO Race 6: 8-SPIRIT SONG, 7-SOLZHENITSYN, 9-TOKUGAWA Race 7: 1-PIERRO, 7-AWESOME BRO, 3-ALL TOO HARD Race 8: 10-MR O’CEIRIN, 8-EXCEPTIONALLY, 7-REUBEN PERCIVAL Race 9: 14-SERENE STAR, 16-SPOT ON MAGGIE, 4-MISS MARX |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-SMOKIN’JOEY 5-VEEWAP 3rd W=$8.00 8-SEA LORD |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-GENERALIFE 10-SNITZERLAND 1st W=$2.00 5-LANKAN RUPEE 3rd W=$4.80 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-HOSS AMOR 8-SATURN ROCK 3rd W=$3.90 14-ZORIA |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BUFFERING 1st W=$2.40 3-FIRST COMMAND 4-PAMPELONNE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-OCEAN PARK 1st W=$1.40 7-SABRAGE 2-SINCERO 3rd W=$4.30 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SPIRIT SONG 2nd W=$19.80 *** Best Each Way Bet of the Day *** 7-SOLZHENITSYN 1st W=$4.90 9-TOKUGAWA Quinella: $41.40 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-PIERRO 2nd W=$1.20 7-AWESOME BRO 3-ALL TOO HARD 1st W=$9.80 Quinella: $3.50 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-MR O’CEIRIN 8-EXCEPTIONALLY 3rd W=$6.80 7-REUBEN PERCIVAL |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-SERENE STAR 1st W=$8.70 *** Best Rough of the Day *** 16-SPOT ON MAGGIE 4-MISS MARX 3rd W=$4.40 |
| RACE 5: CAULFIELD STAKES GROUP 1 2000M WFA |
| Tips: 6-OCEAN PARK 1st W=$1.40 7-SABRAGE 2-SINCERO 3rd W=$4.30 |
| Others: Pace: LEADER DOMINATES Leaders: 3-MIDAS TOUCH Handy: 2-SINCERO, 7-SABRAGE Back: 4-ALCOPOP, 5-SANAGAS, 6-OCEAN PARK, 8-VATUVEI Chances: 2-SINCERO is the classy Sydney miler being set for bigger and better things this spring. Question is whether he is going to measure up past the mile or not ? Primed for a first up win, peeled out and won with style 1st up in the Memsie. Then just even effort in the Underwood, when the on pacers kicked and he battled on well with those out wide who didn’t really make ground. 3rd up and out to the 2000M here today which is the big question mark. Didn’t show his best form in Melbourne last year but was probably past his best, difference is this year he has been set for a Melbourne campaign. That’s when he had his 3 x 2000M runs, Melb last year, so guess you can’t really say yet he doesn’t get the trip – though you have to be a little bit wary at least. Small field, really not much form here, or speed, likely sit and sprint finish is going to suit, so really if he is going to run the 2000M this is pretty much his best chance. No excuses today. Chance. 3rd W=$4.30 6-OCEAN PARK does look the winner here on form, but read the Summary section before you go plonking the house on a short priced favourite in this race. Lightly raced, looks to have a ton of class, and you have to like the way he pinged through the gap and gobbled them up last start. Likely to stalk them out wide in clear running here in a small field and have every chance. Maybe would just want a little more speed, but he has the WFA turn of foot to overcome that. On form should win, but far, far too short to consider betting on. Strong chance. 1st W=$1.40 7-SABRAGE is going a lot better this spring than his form suggests. Fitter for the 3 runs in. Was making good ground at Caulfield 2 starts back when racing a little erratically in between horses. Ended up leading last start which isn’t his normal pattern and looked like he lost rhythm when one slid around him about 600M out, but still fought on well. Actually, considering the history of this race, would really love them to take him to the lead here again today – cause think he is a decent chance of pinching this race if they do. Caulfield form is good, just a bit of give in the ground is good and just get the impression he is ready to do something today. Great rough chance – can someone whisper to the stable about sending him to the lead again ?. May be worth having a bit of a tentative ping at this one at odds in the Caulfield Cup before Saturday, he is not that far down the order of entry and will rise if he runs OK today. Like that he has had 3 runs in and a 2000M run and most of his rivals have not. Genuine rough chance. Place: 4-ALCOPOP does have a stack of ability on his day, and it was in this race in 2010 that he flashed home behind SO YOU THINK in a very impressive performance. Fitter for the 4 runs in, and worked home OK last start at MV without being overly impressive. Wants a track better side of dead to really show best which looks like he will get. Small field, means at least he will get a clear run at them, but he is one that needs the speed on so he can flash home late. Suspect he is going to improve today, but bit hard to get enthused about how well he is going. Place at best. 2nd W=$16.90 Sacking: 1-MANIGHAR SCRATCHED 3-MIDAS TOUCH is about the only one of the William stable not going great guns at the moment. In fact, you could ever say – that the stable has the Midas Touch ? Oh dear. How bad was that ? Really struggling for form this time in, been jumping to the speed but stopping very quickly. Did very suddenly improve off a few bad runs last spring, and likely leader today in a field with little to no speed, but even so, hard to get enthused and have to wait till he shows some form. No 4th W=$10.70 5-SANAGAS is Bart’s import who really hasn’t shown anything in two runs this time in. But these pesky imports do have the most annoying habit of suddenly improving at odds and over distance to totally muck up your trifectas. Drops well back, small field and lack of speed unlikely to suit and hard to see him being a chance in this on form. No 8-VATUVEI has a bit of ability and is probably going to go onto better things but not really suited here at WFA. Fitter for the 2 runs in and not beaten that far 2nd up in much weaker race. Extra distance suits, but drops back, needs speed on, needs them to be running on and probably not the turn of foot in a small field. No Summary: We issue a warning about this race every year, it is a dead set trap for short priced favourites. Normally it is a small field, little to no speed, with a very short priced favourite, but just have a look over the last 10 years or so at the results out of this race. The favourites did have a pretty good record during the 1990s, but there have been quite a few shorties go down in this race since then. 2011 – LION TAMER 8th at W=$2.60 2008 - POMPEII RULER 2nd at W=$2.10 2007 – MISS FINLAND 2nd at W=$1.50 2006 – EL SEGUNDO 3rd at W=$1.40 2004 – STARCRAFT 3rd at W=$2.40 Then look at the winners – often at decent odds. 2011 – DESCARADO – 1st W=$13.00 - led 2008 – DOURO VALLEY – 1st W=$41.00 - led 2007 – MALDIVIAN – 1st W=$4.20 - led 2006 – CASUAL PASS – 1st W=$13.00 - sat behind leader and got up on inside? So here is the big test – Does anyone see a pattern? Small field and not much speed – or pace. Probably 3-MIDAS TOUCH going to the lead and 2-SINCERO, 7-SABRAGE sitting off them. Either way almost certainly a sit sprint finish. Realistically the favourite the 6-OCEAN PARK wins this, class performer on the rise and has next to no opposition. Obvious pick, looks to have the class, probably wins, but not going to take odds in the red in what has been a trap race historically. Too short for us to back, so whilst we will tip it on top we will probably just be backing 7-SABRAGE each way who just looks ready to do something, obviously not suited under this weight scale, but if the history of this race continues and there is an upset suspect he is the most likely. Will sit handy and regardless suspect he is going to do something today. Start getting excited if he goes to the lead. 2-SINCERO the only other danger, really this is going to be his best chance to win at 2000M, so if he can’t win today doubt he ever will. Keen to have a dabble at odds on the 7-SABRAGE though and a couple of long shot Cups doubles whilst we are at it for a bit of high rolling excitement. One to risk: - Roughie: 7-SABRAGE The Key: Who is going to lead ? Back that one. RESULTS: The short priced favourite gets home, but it isn't a stroll in the park and sold runs from the 4-ALCOPOP who almost caused an upset and the 2-SINCERO. 4-ALCOPOP the one to follow going forward - might finally draw a dry track in a Caulfield Cup ? |
| RACE 6: TOORAK HANDICAP GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 8-SPIRIT SONG 2nd W=$19.80 7-SOLZHENITSYN 1st W=$4.90 9-TOKUGAWA Quinella: $41.40 |
| Others: 1, 2 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 2-KING MUFHASA, 5-STEPS IN TIME Handy: 1-MORE JOYOUS, 3-GLASS HARMONIUM, 6-ILLO, 7-SOLZHENITSYN, 8-SPIRIT SONG Back: 4-YOSEI, 9-TOKUGAWA, 10-ULUNDI Chances: 2-KING MUFHASA is a legend in NZ, and won this race last year after struggling to find his best form in Australia before that. Rolls on the speed, handles a bit of give in the ground. Will be suited by the small field here and chance to lead unchallenged. Form leading into his win last year is pretty much identical to this year. Last year though he had a big advantage – he was racing on a track favouring on pacers. Just wait and see how the track plays today – if it is favouring on pacers again then you definitely want to put him in. Any query is the giving 7.5 kgs to over half this field, you just suspect something down in the weights will step up. Chance. 7-SOLZHENITSYN is a pretty smart QLD performer who wasn’t disgraced 2nd up in the Rupert Clarke and really very little made any ground that day so it was actually a pretty good performance. Smashing win strike rate. Fitter for the 2 runs in and like them to have 2 x 1400M runs going into feature 1600M races so really looks primed and ready to go. Solid 1600M record and he is going to get a dream run here behind the two leaders. Strong chance. 1st W=$4.90 8-SPIRIT SONG is a bloody tough mare who has an excellent 1600M record, 4 wins and yet to be unplaced in 7 starts at the distance. Fitter for the 3 runs in, which have all been good – she so rarely runs a bad race. Should be right at peak for this and important that horses can run a strong 1600M to win these feature miles. Another who looks very attractively weighted here on the minimum, especially coming off carrying big weights in mares company. She can race handy and will get a nice sit behind the leaders here. Almost pretty much guaranteed to be in the finish and just think she is a little under rated. Strong chance.2nd W=$19.80 9-TOKUGAWA is one we have a lot of time for and is a smart one on the way up who is going to rapidly go through his classes. Taking a big leap here into Group 1 class, but another who comes in nicely here at the bottom of the weights, with untapped potential. Eye catching win 1st up when showed a class turn of foot, then just got a little wobbly around the turn 2nd up when just failed to chase down leader. Set a huge task 3rd up in 1600M WFA, but wasn’t disgraced and then never looked like getting beaten in easy MV win last start. Guess the question will be how he goes away from MV. Has a class turn of foot though, and don’t be surprised if he pulls out here down the middle of the track and flashes into this race. Chance. Place: 1-MORE JOYOUS is the wonder mare from Sydney who just keeps on winning and winning and winning, 21 wins from 28 starts, 3 from 3 at Caulfield. Only problem is she keeps winning in dead set soft 5 horse fields, but guess all you can do is win. Heading towards the Cox Plate again, bit dubious about her chances but let’s see how she lines up today. She was a bit flat in Melb last spring, even the jockey said so at the time. Spring 2010 she won this race, with 58 kgs and realistically that was one of her best wins – but she did only just hold on in a blanket finish, but it was one of the few times she has been set a challenge – carrying top weight in a handicap. Difference is that time she had 3 runs in and a 1600M run in her lead up, this time around she has only had the 2 runs in, plus a few trials. You know what – we think she is vulnerable today, 3rd up and gone 1200M/1400M and up to 1600M today, hefty weight, but more concerned about her giving 8kgs here to a few on 52kgs who go OK. In 2010 she carried 58kgs on a 53 limit and only just hung on – today she is giving over half this field 8kgs and think that is a major query. She is pretty tough and it is good to see them issuing her a challenge her instead of going for softer options. Should jump and sit handy and definitely seems to like Caulfield. Look she might win, definitely wouldn’t be taking under even money for her – just remember she just held on in this race 2 years ago when a few others were unlucky. Champions win under these sort of challenges – so if she is a champion she will win against the odds. Just prefer to back a few down in the weights at odds. She might win, but what the heck - taking her on. Place. 4th W=$2.00 3-GLASS HARMONIUM is a handy jump and run WFA leader who went pretty well first up when he kicked on well on the rails with a big weight. Track was strongly favouring on pacers that day though. Drawn out here in a small field, and you would think he will go forward and just sit outside the (2). Probably best when leading unchallenged. Class performer who is capable of pinching this, but might just need 1more run and best form is over slightly longer. Place. Sacking: 4-YOSEI is extremely hard to catch, though she did win the Thousand Guineas this track and distance as a 3YO. Winning strike rate is starting to look a bit ordinary, and suspect she might be slightly better going in the other direction. Had the 4 runs in so should be at peak and guess she did run on OK last start in the Epsom. Seems to be best with a bit of give in the ground. If you just looks solely at weights she was beaten 1.1 L in the Doncaster by the (1) carrying 5.5 kgs less – today she gets a very attractive 7.5 kgs less. Small field probably suits as she tends to get back in her races and need luck. Solid speed will suit too. Maybe some rough chance – do find her hard to catch though. Passing. 3rd W=$14.20 5-STEPS IN TIME is a lightly raced Sydney mare with a good win strike rate. Likes to lead and likely to challenge the (2) up front here. Gets a nice weight drop here to the minimum going up in class. Bit hard to ignore a lightly raced horse in winning form with 52kgs. Keen an eye on if the track is favouring on pacers. She is likely to get caught outside the (2) though, 1st time Melb way of going and that might bring her undone. 1st time out to the 1600M is the question mark, in a Group 1, getting challenged for the lead. Just watch the market to see if she can get support, maybe just a watch today though. Passing. 6-ILLO has been struggling for form this time in. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in and this is going to suit a lot better, dropping back from WFA to 52.5 kgs in a handicap. Put in one good run last spring and two good runs in the Autumn, but just hasn’t show anything since then. Has dropped well back last few, seems to go better up on the speed so suspect will race handy today but hard to back with any enthusiasm. Passing. 10-ULUNDI is pretty hard to catch and looks to be aiming a wee bit too high here. Tends to mix form, fitter for the 2 runs in, but yet to show anything and meeting a very talented field here. No. Summary: Another year with a small Toorak field – what happened to the grand old days of capacity fields and tough feature miles ? The most important thing to note in this field is that over half the field is on the minimum – 52 kgs – and think that is important for the chances of the top weights. Fair enough you can carry weight to win, but the more horses you need to give weight to, the more chance there is that one with no weight will come out and ping and there just seems to be a lot of really well performed horses with no weight here. Which is why are going around the favourite 1-MORE JOYOUS here. No doubt she will be in the finish, probably runs a place, she might even win, but 3rd up, up in distance giving 8 kgs to over half the field the odds are just stacked against her. Just wary of the blanket finish in her last Toorak when she was giving the field 5kgs. Good to see her issued a challenge though – the outstanding champions win under these conditions when they don’t have things their own way. So have left her out of the tips, just so we can focus on trying to find the winner down in the weights. Speed here should actually be pretty genuine, 2-KING MUFHASA, 5-STEPS IN TIME leading and they might run along a little, with 1-MORE JOYOUS, 3-GLASS HARMONIUM, 8-SPIRIT SONG sitting handy. The favourite will most likely be in the finish somewhere, but happy to take her on and instead we just want to place win bets on three on the limit at odds. On top 8-SPIRIT SONG ultra consistent, excellent 1600M record , suited at the weights, and will get a perfect on pace sit here. 7-SOLZHENITSYN has a bit of class and should be ready to win with the 2 runs in and the 9-TOKUGAWA is one on the rise who might rapidly improve. Can just see one of these three beating the favourite so happy to back all three. Those who want to take the shorts 1-MORE JOYOUS are probably leaping around the room with glee at the moment, ready to fling egg onto the embarrassed face of Turf Deli. Fling away. One to risk: 1-MORE JOYOUS 4th W=$2.00 Roughie: 9-TOKUGAWA The Key: Watch the light weight chances at the bottom of the weights. RESULTS: Spot on in the form preview with the short priced favourite 1-MORE JOYOUS going down and the lightly raced runners fighting out the finish. Top pick 8-SPIRIT SONG gets a lovely run behind the speed and hits the lead in the straight but just gets run down at nice odds. Stick our neck out in the form preview - and get a nice collect. |
| RACE 7: CAULFIELD GUINEAS GROUP 1 1600M 3YO |
| Tips: 1-PIERRO 2nd W=$1.20 7-AWESOME BRO 3-ALL TOO HARD 1st W=$9.80 Quinella: $3.50 |
| Others: Pace: EVEN Leaders: 6-CARRINGBUSH JACK, 8-LET GO LENNI Handy: 1-PIERRO, 4-ASHOKAN, 5-ROAD TRIPPIN Back: 2-EPAULETTE, 3-ALL TOO HARD, 7-AWESOME BRO Chances: 1-PIERRO is the new super star of Australian racing. That BLACK whats-her-name is so 2011 and those salmon and black polka dots colours are so out of fashion. Red lighting strikes is the happening look this year. Dominant 2YO winning the 3 Sydney Group 1 races, which is a magnificent feat in itself. Then continued his winning run into his 3YO season. 8 starts. Unbeaten. And largely bomb proof cause he races on the speed and makes his own luck – racing style really makes such a huge difference to your chances. Was interesting to see his Bill Stutt Stakes run, it was an interesting choice to skip richer races in Sydney, go 2nd up from 1200M to 1600M, around MV, at night time, the sort of things normally you would want to take a horse on for. But he never looked even slightly bothered by it all – would have been good to see some better quality opposition that night or for one of them to run along and try to do something to beat him, but they just kinda went through the motions. Actually wonder how tough a hit out that was – guess that would be the only small question mark here - if some of his rivals might have more hard edged race fitness. Only 3rd run in versus 4th run for most of his rivals. Small field, can sit on the speed, 1600M no problems. Pretty hard to see him getting beaten. One to beat.2nd W=$1.20 7-AWESOME BRO is one we have a bit of time for and he looks right in this today. Still in his first preparation, so might not be that much more to come, but been going great. Just got a little lost at MV 3 starts back, was wide all the way in a solid effort at Flem, then really, really, really liked the run here last start in the Guineas Prelude. Sat out the back of a small field, on a day where leaders were dominating and was one of the very few all day to come from behind and get into the finish – and he was coming with a great burst over the last 50M – if he got going earlier probably would have won. Think his was by far the best run out of the Guineas Prelude – despite the weights not being in his favour today – and that is normally the one you want to be on into this race. Small field again, probably a little more speed than last time, will want them to be running on OK, but really think he is the only chance of a boil over here and clear cut 2nd pick behind the favourite. Strong chance. 4th W=$12.40 Place: 2-EPAULETTE is the main challenger to the favourite, but wasn’t overly impressed by his Guineas Prelude win – but guess you can’t do more than win. Seen 1-PIERRO’s backside a few times so far in his 7 starts, and hard to see him turning the tables when the record is three –zip. Hard chasing horse who would probably prefer a larger field and a cracking pace. The Guineas Prelude is normally the best form line for this race, and he won that, and he gets the 3.5 kgs weight drop against his rivals from that race so has to be a factor in this. Don’t think he is value though to be honest, wonder if he might drop back and not suited if this is a sit sprint. Place. 3rd W=$10.60 3-ALL TOO HARD was the boom 2YO who skipped the Golden Slipper to try for a soft win in the Sires to keep his unbeaten record and it all came unstuck when it turned out there was one a lot better than him. 3YO form has been a little mediocre, but is dropping out in slowly run races which makes it very hard to run on. Like that he has had the 1600M run going into this. Realistically his best two wins were in Melb, so it might just be he is better the Melbourne way of going ? Small field and the lack of speed is going to be the problem here, this race is likely to be a sit sprint and he wants a solid speed to come from behind. Might run better than expected though – don’t be surprised if he pulls out and looms as a threat at some stage. Place. 1st W=$9.80 Sacking: 4-ASHOKAN is another Sydney sider who was well held in his few runs up there by some of his opposition today. Fair effort here last start in the Guineas Prelude and does get a slight weight advantage off those who finished in front of him. Will make own luck and race on the speed. But realistically he has met most of these multiple times before – and they have beaten him home, including all 3 who finished in front of him last start, so hard to see him improving enough to be a factor here. Risking. 5-ROAD TRIPPIN is a promising stayer coming off the provincials who was OK at MV last start when he made ground late. Trial win since then and some gear tinkering likely to be a plus. He is hard and fit with a few runs over the distance, which would be a big plus if this was a ferocious competitive capacity field – but it is not. Can race handy as well, but wonder if they might just sit off these a bit in the small field. Does look outclassed on form though. No 6-CARRINGBUSH JACK has been going along OK and should have a bit of improvement still with the two runs in since a freshen up. Likely leader here, can roll and go forward and probably not that much pressure in a small field. Form from MV 2 starts back stacks up – but never got within shouting distance of the favourite last start. Like that he has had the 2 x 1600M runs, and might stick on OK on the speed, but again looks held against this lot based on the margin last start. No 8-LET GO LENNI is a lightly raced on stepping up very quickly in class and distance. 3rd up and up from 1100M to 1400M to 1600M today and generally prefer them to have 2 x 1400M runs going into this race, or a 1600M run. Mixed it well with these last start rolling on the speed, and probably got a bit of improvement to come. Bit more pressure on the speed today though. No far behind these last start, and likely to be around the finish but only a very rough place chance at best. Passing. Summary: This is normally one of our favourite races of the year as the boom Sydney 3YOs come down to Melbourne to mass media spruiking and a dozen different form lines meet in a capacity field of 3YOs to see who is the real deal. But last couple of years we have struck small boring fields and Sydney horses that are actually the real deal. Seriously – where is the fun in that ? Our rule for this race is to not believe the hype and stick to the form. Unfortunately, the hype about 1-PIERRO here seems to be well founded, guess the only slight question mark is going to be race fitness with most of his rivals having a run or more than him this time in, and his Bill Stutt Stakes win was barely a hit out. The Guineas Prelude is just about always the best form reference for this and we were really impressed with the run of 7-AWESOME BRO out of that race. Often in big fields the winner of this race is the strong miler finishing hard out wide, but in recent years we have had small fields and leader dominated tracks. Boring. Can’t they just stack the field with a few 3YOs from around town ? Give the trainer free entry or something ? Small fields and short priced favourites are so boring – if we wanted that we would go live at Moonee Valley Despite the small field most of these race handy or on the speed, so the tempo should be OK. Likely leaders are 6-CARRINGBUSH JACK, 8-LET GO LENNI with 1-PIERRO, 4-ASHOKAN sitting just off them. Wonder if 6-CARRINGBUSH JACK might run along here and try to make a race of this ? Pretty hard to see the favourite the 1-PIERRO getting beaten, especially seeing he can just sit right on the speed here in a small field and make his own luck. But never say never. The main danger – and we think only chance of an upset is the 7-AWESOME BRO, think we have probably already raved enough about his Guineas Prelude run, but if he sits quietly out the back here he might be the surprise packet. Throw 3-ALL TOO HARD as third pick, mainly on spec, just in case he finds his old form back to the Melbourne way of going. So yes, 1-PIERRO probably wins, but suspect 7-AWESOME BRO runs 2nd – so will be backing the 2nd pick each way and in quinellas. One to risk: 2-EPAULETTE 3rd W=$10.60 Roughie: 7-AWESOME BRO The Key: Someone actually trying to win the race – instead of just making it a procession for the favourite. RESULTS: One of the great Caulfield Guineas with the short priced favourite having to work early, kicking clear in the straight but getting run down. 3-ALL TOO HARD just seems to be a different horse in Melbourne. The first three spaced the rest. Keen to follow 3-ALL TOO HARD going on if he goes to the Cox Plate, just seems more upside to him, and he looks more like the 3YO staying type you want. Still suspect 1-PIERRO is just a sprinter miler. However, it may have been that 1-PIERRO having a lighter preparation than his rivals made the difference when things didn't go his way. |
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