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The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer is valid for one week only and closes Sat 12/10/2013.
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| CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 12th OCT 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Rain on Thursday, else pretty fine and sunny week heading into the serious end of spring so this track should stay firm, and there is probably a decent chance of a track upgrade to good. Maybe be wary of those with a history of jarring up on firm tracks or who need some give in the ground. Rail remains TRUE here as it was for the Rupert Clarke Stakes meeting a few weeks back. That day the racing was pretty even, but the on pacers did stick on pretty well. Sometimes on a hard dry track rail TRUE at Caulfield we can get a strong leader’s bias, but suspect that since they changed the schedule last few years to run the Rupert Clarke as rail true leading into this meeting that probably decreases the chances of a strong racing pattern – previously this meeting used to come off a Sunday meeting with the rail well out so it was raced on fresh ground. So even racing, maybe just tending towards on pacers early on. This is always a great betting day and this year we get a capacity Toorak Handicap field and a nice even Caulfield Guineas to have a dabble on – plenty to challenge the punter in those races. Smallish fields and not much value in the first half of the day though - so just be wary of how much speed there is in those races (not much in most of them). Oh – and try and save some money for the last two races of the day – the best betting races on the card ! Actually it is a very lopsided betting day – you could almost stay out of the first six races, 2YOs and sprints with small fields, till you get to the juicy races at the end of the day. Not a huge amount of value early on, but let’s try to find a few selections away from the normal mundane of the Saturday morning newspaper form guide tipping panel. RESULTS: Track comes up a firm GOOD(3) on a lovely sunny day and there is competitive even racing all day. Most of the obvious picks get up and win, with races that looked like they were going to be fought out by the main chances. Super frustrating day with the Betting Portfolio racking up lots of 2nds and 4ths but not managing a collect. BEST BET: Race 7: 10-RICHIE’S VIBE $10 WIN 4th W=$2.40 There doesn’t seem to be many winning chances in many of these races and this race is one of them. Lots of 1st up horses over the 1400M and not that many with recent form. Compared to this one who is lightly raced, on the way up and put in a huge run here last start when was held up and well back in the field before coming with a huge run to almost win. That was only his 5th race start and 2nd run this time in so looks like plenty of improvement to come. Out to the 1400M here should suit, not much speed in this race so would be good to see him racing more handy from an inside barrier, but he is an improver at the bottom of the weights and you just want to back him off last run. Back straight out at around $3.20 and hope he doesn’t get too much shorter than that. RESULTS: Unfortunately pretty much every single tipping service in the country latched onto this one, and it started stupid odds at around $2.40. Just held up on the inside early on in the straight and doesn't miss by much. Keep following- but only if the odds are decent ! BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-VATICAN $5 EW 4th W=$10.20 Under rated 1000M sprinter specialist who struggled to win early on in his career but seems to have worked out what it is all about now. Best form is at MV and really impressive win there 1st up with a big weight when he jumped and stalked a speedy one and quickly had its measure. 1000M form is excellent and deserves a crack at this level. Just think he gets the perfect run here – the 3YO the 9-KUROSHIO is the short priced favourite here off a dashing jump and run win 1st up run, but just seems that these 3YOs rarely do that 2 starts in a row - and he won’t have the element of surprise this time and there a few others who can kick up inside him. Think the favourite looks too short and worth looking at others in this. Just think this one is going to get a perfect sit behind the speed and is worth something each way at around $9. RESULTS: As predicted the short priced favourite the (9) doesn't get a gun run in front this time around, setting it up for something with a sit. This one gets a perfect trail, but is just lacking in this class and frustratingly runs 4th. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-ASSERTIVE EAGLE $4 WIN 2nd W=$5.00 QUINELLA: Race 5: 6-ASSERTIVE EAGLE #4,5,8,11 x $1.50 = $6 2nd 6-ASSERTIVE EAGLE W=$5.00 This is one of the more even races of the day and worth remembering that this Adelaide visitor actually has pretty good Melbourne form in Group races – 5th beaten < 2L in a Group 2 Blazer behind MOSHEEN, and 2nd in a Group 2 Kewney. Drawn a nice barrier to get an on pace sit in this, there isn’t much speed again and just think she will present into the race at the right time. Looks a nice each way bet at around $11 and there should be plenty of value in the quinellas in an even field, especially if we can find a winner away from the favourite the (4). So let’s back her straight out, and then look for a nice quinella with the (4), the (5) who might improve with the blinkers on, the (8) who looks the leader and the (11) who is racing really well but may want it wet. RESULTS: Gets extremely well backed - was $11 when we sent out the tips on Friday morning, but ends up 2nd favourite. Just gets shuffled back a bit further than is ideal, and comes through the pack very late making ground on the line to not miss by much. Frustratingly, we miss the quinella though. BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 9-LATE CHARGE $3 EW X Happy to have something on our roughie in the Caulfield Guineas. Dashing strong finisher who flashed home at Flemington off a let up, and then loomed into the race last start at MV when wide and ridden more forward and just seemed to die on his run. Ridden cold here, fitter for the 2 runs in and a traditional swoop down the middle of the track Caulfield Guineas strong 1600M and think he is a solid chance at odds of around $41 or better in this. RESULTS: Very brave/foolish to tip a rank outsider in the main race, looms but never really threatens. QUINELLA: Race 9: 2-SOLZHENITSYN, 1-LINTON x $3 1st 2-SOLZHENITSYN W=$6.10 QUINELLA: Race 9: 2-SOLZHENITSYN, 17-BASS STRAIT x $3 1st 2-SOLZHENITSYN W=$6.10 QUINELLA: Race 9: 2-SOLZHENITSYN, 9-LORD OF BRAZIL x $3 1st 2-SOLZHENITSYN W=$6.10 The safest way to go in the feature mile might be to take the favourite, who has great 1600M form and looks ready to go here 3rd up, in quinellas with the main other chances. Almost certain to be in the finish and just a matter of whether with 58kgs he finds one better. But won’t drop back as far as many of these and think that is the key to this race with not that much speed up front. Take the quinella with the (1) who just needs luck to get out from his inside barrier, the (17) on the up finishing hard and the value on pacer and ultra consistent (9) who is the best roughie in this race. RESULTS: Actually there ends up being a lot of speed, but this one puts himself into the race at the top of the straight while the backmarkers chase home too late. Again frustratingly could not find the other half of the quinella. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 1-MISS LONGSTOCKING at around $3.40 1st W=$3.70 Actually no particular reason for this, but might as well get the Lay of the Day over and done with early on, before anyone notices if it actually wins. Just always seems a bit dubious backing these favourites early in the day in fields where there are lot of young horses who can rapidly improve – and invariably something does. 2nd up and up 200M, has been dropping back in more recent races and just suspect something jumps and runs and wins this –so might as well lay the favourite. RESULTS: Oh dear - the Lay of the Day won again, but at least we got that over and done with early on. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP PLACE BET x $5 PLACE Race 4: 4-VATICAN 4th W=$10.20 PLACE Race 5: 6-ASSERTIVE EAGLE 3rd W=$5.00, P=$1.80 PLACE Race 6: 2-FORETELLER 2nd W=$7.20, P=$2.20 PLACE Race 8: 9-VERDANT X Let’s try and snare a Poor Man’s Quaddie this week – 4 place getters at odds. The first two legs are our top picks in those races and look nice each way bets, we think the 2-FORETELLER looks the value place bet in the WFA 2000M race – but be aware it is only 2 place dividends in that race and come home on a bit of a roughie the 9-VERDANT in the staying race whose two runs this time in have both been good and is looking for the 2400M here. Looking at around a $300 collect for the $5 if we can get these four runners to fall into a placing somewhere. RESULTS: Frustratingly we run 4th in the 1st leg and the next two legs come in - wouldn't have collected anyway but would have been nice to be live. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $0 NET: $-50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. PICK A LETTER. ANY LETTER Race 2: 8-COSMIC ENDEAVOUR, 5-ANATINA, 3-BULBULA Race 3: 2-VA PENSIERO, 3-SAFEGUARD, 5-LION OF BELFORT Race 4: 4-VATICAN, 9-KUROSHIO, 7-SMACKDOWN Race 5: 6-ASSERTIVE EAGLE, 4-SHAMAL WIND, 5-YOU’RE SO GOOD Race 6: 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 2-FORETELLER, 1-GREEN MOON Race 7: 10-RICHIE’S VIBE, 7-BRITISH GENERAL, 2-BELLO Race 8: 1-SEA MOON, 4-KESAMPOUR, 9-VERDANT Race 9: 1-LINTON, 2-SOLZHENITSYN, 9-LORD OF BRAZIL Race 10: 9-LATE CHARGE, 4-LONG JOHN, 1-DISSIDENT |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-COSMIC ENDEAVOUR 5-ANATINA 2nd W=$6.50 3-BULBULA 3rd W=$9.60 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-VA PENSIERO 3-SAFEGUARD 2nd W=$4.60 5-LION OF BELFORT 1st W=$7.90 Quinella: $17.40 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-VATICAN 9-KUROSHIO 3rd W=$2.50 7-SMACKDOWN |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ASSERTIVE EAGLE 2nd W=$5.00 4-SHAMAL WIND 5-YOU’RE SO GOOD |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.30 2-FORETELLER 2nd W=$7.20 1-GREEN MOON SCR Quinella: $3.10 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-RICHIE’S VIBE 7-BRITISH GENERAL 1st W=$7.80 2-BELLO 2nd W=$9.20 Quinella: $31.10 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SEA MOON 1st W=$3.10 4-KESAMPOUR 9-VERDANT |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-LINTON 2-SOLZHENITSYN 1st W=$6.10 9-LORD OF BRAZIL |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-LATE CHARGE 4-LONG JOHN 1st W=$3.60 1-DISSIDENT Quaddie: 7-1-2-4 pays $770.70
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| RACE 6: CAULFIELD STAKES GROUP 1 2000M WFA |
| Tips: 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.30 2-FORETELLER 2nd W=$7.20 1-GREEN MOON SCR Quinella: $3.10 |
| Others: - Pace: EVEN Leaders: 3-SPACECRAFT Handy: 1-GREEN MOON, 5-SUPER COOL, 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL Back: 2-FORETELLER, 4-MASSIYN Chances: 1-GREEN MOON is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner slowly building into spring. Stable are experts are getting their imports to fire at the right time, and nearly all of them stepped up last week in their respective races. Worked home well here 1st up in the Memsie, then forget the form from the Underwood where nothing made ground as the leaders went so incredibly slow. Out to 2000M suits, he actually has a really good WFA burst turn of speed on him so the slow speed here won’t worry too much, but they will want him ridden quietly. Suspect he is going to step up today and if here is any doubts about the favourite over the trip he will make it an honest contest. Chance. SCR 2-FORETELLER is one we have a heap of time for and still can’t work out why the stable doesn’t run him in the Caulfield Cup – where we think he would be a huge chance. Vastly under rated, strong finisher who just about always puts in. Sustained a long tough WFA campaign over the Autumn and Winter where he ran in just about everything – and was competitive each time. He does drop back and likes the speed on, so probably doesn’t get that here – but at least in a small field he will be able to run home hard in clear running. Solid run making good ground 1st up, then got perfect trail behind PDL to just nab him on the line in the Makybe Diva. Actually quite liked his run here in the Underwood – no speed – nothing made ground but he came home OK. This race can often end in upset results due to the small field and if there is going to be one this year suspect it will be him. Strong chance. 2nd W=$7.20 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL is the star horse in Australia at the moment and she is really pretty unlucky not to be undefeated – only being beaten a nostril last start in a race where she was forced to go forward, on a track that was racing funny, and she was really only beaten because the jockey on the winner made a split second decision to go forward rather than ride back – else she probably wins again. That was first try on wet ground as well – so firm track here is a plus. Should get perfect on speed sit here and at least she is not going to be forced to lead again. The question will be is if she isn’t as competitive over the 2000M and further in open class as can often be the case with classic winning 3YO fillies – they win on class as a 3YO, but the form evens out into open company. We mentioned MISS FINLAND as the prime example of this in the Underwood form preview – and she is relevant again – beaten in the Underwood in 2007 as an even money favourite – then beaten again in this race at $1.75 fav. Pretty confident this one is better than her, and her wins have been more impressive but it is worth bearing in mind, especially in a race where a lot of short priced favourites have gone down over the years. But basically the only time she got beaten was by one that goes pretty darn well, will get perfect sit on speed here and every chance. Should win. 1st W=$1.30 Place: 5-SUPER COOL was a star 3YO who hasn’t quite gone on with it this spring, though he has had a few excuses. Huge effort over Autumn to win the Australian Cup. 1st up in the Memsie he ran on really well and looked ready to go this spring. Then didn’t like racing tight inside one at MV when he hit a flat spot mid race, but was still coming hard on the line. Held up last start at Flemington, in a race where quite a few had hard luck stories, but didn’t feel like he finished it off once he got into the clear. Has been stuck inside horses the last two runs and does look like he wants to be outside them looping into the race. Fitter for the 3 runs in, yet to miss a place here, and dry track suits. There are excuses for the last few runs and he can get the gun sit on the speed here so could upset the stable mate – but really starting to have doubts over how he is going and want to wait till he puts himself into a finish before we get back on. Place only. 3rd W=$4.80 Sacking: 3-SPACECRAFT is a much appreciated starter here to put some bloody speed into this small field of six – else the poor (6) would be forced to lead again. Struggles to win these days, and keeps best form for MV. Huge run to stick on in the Dato Tan, then was pretty disappointing last start. Firm track suits and he gets what he wants here – the chance to dictate terms in front. Leaders do have a history of causing the upset in this race too – but hard to see him doing it. No 4-MASSIYN is a William stable import and funny how these all seem to improve rapidly once they get out to some distance – often their form looks hopeless till they do. So he might actually improve a bit today. Really didn’t do much 1st up though and the lack of pressure up front is going to be an issue for this one. Passing. 4th W=$21.90 Summary: Small field, as is often the case in this race, but at least this year we have a pace setter. Let’s hope 3-SPACECRAFT doesn’t get scratched. Not sure what it is about this race ? It always attracts a small field. There is always a short priced favourite - and quite often there is actually an upset. Which always seems hard to believe when you see the small fields and a class horse in the red, but have a look back over the history of this race. Maybe because of the small field and this race not really being a feature jockeys get a bit complacent? Copy and paste of previous results from last year’s form guide - where OCEAN PARK made hard work of it to hang on as $1.80 fav Beaten favourites in the last ten years 2011 – LION TAMER 8th at W=$2.60 2008 - POMPEII RULER 2nd at W=$2.10 2007 – MISS FINLAND 2nd at W=$1.50 2006 – EL SEGUNDO 3rd at W=$1.40 2004 – STARCRAFT 3rd at W=$2.40 Then look at the winners – often at decent odds. 2011 – DESCARADO – 1st W=$13.00 - led 2008 – DOURO VALLEY – 1st W=$41.00 - led 2007 – MALDIVIAN – 1st W=$4.20 - led 2006 – CASUAL PASS – 1st W=$13.00 - sat behind leader and got up on inside? Obviously each year is different, but you would struggle to find a race anywhere where so many short priced favourites have got beaten in the last ten years. All of them top quality WFA horses too. Anyway, that was just an aside – hard to see the leader winning this year, but there is always a chance of an upset in this race, especially if the favourite ends up being a bit more vulnerable at the 2000M. No speed in a small field and 3-SPACECRAFT gets an easy lead which he loves, with the 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL getting the perfect sit on him. Obviously the 6-ATLANTIC JEWEL the one to beat and can’t tip against her, probably should be ten from ten and undefeated. The value runner where might be the 2-FORETELLER running on late though, which would be a great Caulfield Cup trial if we could just convince the stable to bloody well run him ! and respect the class and turn of foot of the 1-GREEN MOON. Actually think the place on 2-FORETELLER is probably the betting way to go in this, even with only 2 place dividends, looks the value in this. One to risk: 5-SUPER COOL 3rd W=$4.80 Roughie: 2-FORETELLER 2nd W=$7.20 The Key: Often short priced favourites get beaten in this race RESULTS: Favourite never looks in doubt - but was also really never in doubt that the 2-FORETELLER would run 2nd and quite happy with the $2.20 the place even in a field with only two place dividends. Really can't work out why they wouldn't run 2-FORETELLER in the Caulfield Cup, looks ideally suited and unlikely he is going to trouble the favourite in the Cox Plate. 5-SUPER COOL just doesn't seem to be the same horse as from the Autumn. |
| RACE 9: TOORAK HANDICAP GROUP 1 1600M |
| Tips: 1-LINTON 2-SOLZHENITSYN 1st W=$6.10 9-LORD OF BRAZIL |
| Others: 17,10,6 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 7-BUDRIGUEZ , 16-TRANSPORTER Handy: 2-SOLZHENITSYN , 4-DECEMBER DRAW (wide), 9-LORD OF BRAZIL, 10-MOURO , 13-DANY THE FOX (wide) Back: 1-LINTON, 3-LUCKYGRAY, 5-FERLAX , 6-SPEEDINESS , 8-YOSEI , 11-CENTENNIAL PARK , 12-TREVIERES , 14-MUTUAL TRUST , 15-BLACKIE , 17-BASS STRAIT Chances: 1-LINTON has found a new lease on life since moving to a new stable and being trained as a handicap miler rather than a WFA stayer. Struck a purple patch of form mid year culminating in a very sneaky along the rails win in the Stradbroke. 2nd up into this, but 1st up run was excellent – he was wide and on speed and exposed the whole way and fought out the finish the whole length of the straight – was probably the run of the race. Has topweight here, but there isn’t as big a spread of weights in these races anymore with the bottom weights continually increasing. Maybe just him prefer drawn outside runners and he is better racing in clear running so the inside barrier a little concern. Normally wouldn’t go for a horse 2nd up in this race as the winners have normally had a few runs in. Solid 1600M record, good 2nd up record and he seems to be racing in the peak of form and well, just seriously liked his 1st up run. Strong chance. 2-SOLZHENITSYN was the winner of this race last year and a regular attendee in these sorts of races. 4 times winner over the 1600M – in fact only missed the place once in 7 tries at the trip and yet to be unplaced in 3 tries at Caulfield. Firm track suits. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been excellent and just took a little while to get into clear running last start and right in the finish there. Ran 3rd in the Rupert Clarke before winning this race last year as well – though worth noting he only carried 53kgs last year. Ultra consistent type, looks ready to win, just starting to creep up in the weights which means he will be in the finish of most of these races, but may find one better. Just seems to have the perfect preparation and form into this so almost certain to be in the finish. Chance. 1st W=$6.10 6-SPEEDINESS is an really consistent one who just doesn’t win as often as he should because of his drop back racing style. Coming into this feature mile with just the 2 runs this time in – 1200M/1400M so stepping up in distance again, and do prefer them to have had 3 runs or a 1600M run into the tough feature miles. He is going really well at the moment, nice win 1st up, then just took a while to get into clear running in the Rupert Clarke when stormed home late and probably should have won. Placed 5 from 6 this distance. Drawn outside barrier is a plus for him – drop back and get into clear running. Have to respect last run as think he should have won, but likely to drop well back again and give something a big head start. Rough chance only. 4th W=$8.00 9-LORD OF BRAZIL is a super consistent type who always puts in and a horse we have a lot of time for. Better known in the country cups, but he has the ability to have a crack at this level. 4 times winner over the 1600M and placed 8 from 9 starts this distance are very nice stats indeed. Fitter for the 2 runs and was hitting the line nicely last start, and note that he was carrying a whopping 60kgs that night – so nice weight drop into this and meets the (15) 4.5 kgs better into this. The class here is going to be the test, but think you can make a solid case for him at odds. He will sit handy here , get the run of the race, there isn’t much speed in this at all so think he just puts himself into the finish at the right time and it is just a matter of whether something with more class comes out and runs him down. Really keen on this one today and suspect he will get the run of the race here and be in the finish at odds. Best rough chance. 10-MOURO is a lightly raced one with a lot of potential in a stable that is doing really well picking its targets this spring. Yet to miss the place in 6 starts over the 1600M and only missed the place once in 10 career starts so far. Gun jockey jumps on board. Been very competitive at all his Australian starts and has the big plus that he can race handy and make his own luck. Flashed home late here 1st up along the inside on a track where the best going was out wide. No speed here and should be able to jump and take a position in this. Might just need one more run to really top him off , and normally the winner of this race has had 3 or more runs in, but suspect he is going to go onto win a nice race this spring and is going to get a pretty good cart into this race. Chance. 17-BASS STRAIT is flying this spring and is really on an rapid upward spiral. Strong finisher who was thereabouts in some good races during the Melbourne Autumn, but had rapidly gone up a notch in three runs this spring. Stormed home late to just miss 1st up, then should have gone pretty close to winning the Dato Tan 2nd up when totally stopped for runs near the line when finishing full of steam. Professional effort to win 3rd up. Stable are keen to get him into the Caulfield Cup next week and are running him here to try and get him qualified. Tough ask in a big Group 1 field - but they do seem very keen on him. Hard fit, 2 x 1600M runs this time in, ready for a tough feature mile. Gets in at the bottom of the weights here – though would have preferred the good old days when the bottom weights in these feature miles carried 50kgs. Drawn out, will drop back, but be very strong to the line. Go well. Place: 7-BUDRIGUEZ is a very consistent on pacer mile when right and caused a boil over in the Autumn when he dead heated the Blamey with PDL. He was in flying form during Autumn. Whopping 6 wins from 7 starts over the 1600M and firm track is a very big plus for him. Fitter for the 3 runs in this time, but has been struggling to find his form, and did drop out very quickly here last start which is very unlike him. Not really suited before that over MV 1200M with 61kgs. He did take a few runs to find best form last time in. Outside barrier here and is going to have to push forward and get used up to go to the lead in this. On the plus side though there doesn’t seem to be much speed at all, so he could get a pretty cosy on pace run in this. On his normal form you would rate him a huge chance dictating a 1600M feature on a dry track, but just can’t be sure how he is going. Throw in as a rough place chance as he might improve today? Rough place. 13-DANY THE FOX is a very consistent type who put in one of the worse runs of his career last start here in the Rupert Clarke. Though guess he wasn’t beaten that far. Tends to lob and box seat and give himself every chance in a race which is a big plus. Firm track, 1600M suits and should be at peak now with the 3 runs in and was nicely building momentum into the spring with good runs 1st and 2nd up. Drawn out here so they have to decide whether to sit handy and wide or drop back. Also goes up quite sharply in weight here – up 2.5kgs – and most of those coming out of the same race into this are staying on about the same weight. Starting to get the impression that he just struggles at this Group 1 level? Very honest when right and not beaten that far last start, but place chance at best. Place. 16-TRANSPORTER is a Sydney galloper who at least provides a new form line to many of these who have been contesting the same races. Fitter for the 3 runs in and made a little ground late last start, but hard to get enthused about them. Excellent 1600M record – 4 times winner and 8 from 9 starts in the placings. Has been dropping back in Sydney runs but previously had success racing on the speed in these sort of races so you would think from an inside barrier might go forward here ? Listen out for riding tactics. Would need to improve, but in a race with a lot of back markers might be the roughie to put into your trifectas for a bit of extra kick. Rough place only. Sacking: 3-LUCKYGRAY has been struggling to work out where he fits in over here. Came over from WA with a huge reputation but has not quite found his niche - in fact now he has yet to run a place in all 5 starts over here – though they have obviously been in the best company. Fitter for the 3 runs in, flashed home 1st up down the straight, outclassed 2nd up in a strong Memsie, and was flashing home again here last start in the Rupert Clarke. Guess he is meeting quite a few horses who beat him home last start though. Dry track suits. Yet to place in 4 starts at Caulfield – just hard to work out how well he is going. He does seem to be building to something this spring, but just can’t have him till he genuinely gets into a finish somewhere and he does have to keep giving weight to smart fields. Will probably flash home late again. Prefer to risk. 4-DECEMBER DRAW was the top liner of a few seasons ago who has been struggling with injury. Boom spring Cups horse of 2011 till everything went pear shaped and has struggled to get back to best since then with several long lay offs. Looks like they have switched him away from WFA back to the feature handicaps. Fitter for the 2 runs in – bit unusual to have a horse running first up at 1600M and then dropping back to 1400M. Guess he wasn’t that far away last start and should have improvement to come. Dry track is a big plus. Normally races handy so not sure where they will go here from outside barrier? But has to be a question mark over how he is going so prefer to wait till he shows some form. No 5-FERLAX has a stack of ability but is one we really struggle to catch. Very lightly raced and quickly jumped from a Sale 68 rating race to a Group 1 Australian Guineas during the Autumn. As you do. Fitter for the 3 runs back, ran on well 1st up and then huge 2nd here 2nd up in a super strong Memsie Stakes – based on that run you would really think he would go on this spring. Disappointing here last start in the Rupert Clarke when really expected more from him and he never really put himself into the race at any stage. Hard to line up how he is going. Outside draw here and likely to drop well back and there seems to be an awful lot of back makers in this race. Just can’t work him out so leaving out on that basis. No 8-YOSEI is one we have been ruthlessly caning as a drop back, run on non-winner #nonwinnerhastag, but surely she will pop up and sting us sometime soon. 1600M record is starting to look a little ordinary, but worth noting that two of her best runs have been here at Caulfield – winning the Thousand Guineas and running 3rd in this race last year which she should have arguably won – but you hear that a lot with her. She did show a little bit of form running into this race last year – her form this year doesn’t seem any good – though she did make a little ground last start. Pretty sure she wants some give in the ground and the dry track here is not going to suit. Drawn an inside barrier, going to drop well back in a race with not much speed, and prefer to risk. No 11-CENTENNIAL PARK is a Sydney sider who has been going along OK up there and gradually running into form this time in. Drawn the inside barrier in a big field of drop back horses and he tends to race mid field or worse as well so that is going to be an issue. He has had quite a few cracks at these feature 1600M races now – and only managed 1 placing from 8 starts which looks a query. Prefer others. 12-TREVIERES is the first international runner to ever contest the Toorak Handicap. Coming from France is a long way for a Group 1 1600M race, but at least he can stay for the after races concert and get some value for money. Utterly impossible to line up, solid 1600M form and seems to prefer a dry track which he should get. Has only been running at handicap level over there anyway – so is going to be a long way to the feature Cups from that and has been set a pretty ambitious task. Nice barrier, no idea where he sits – watch the market but as always prefer to see these internationals go around first so can line up where they fit in. Prefer to see. 2nd W=$13.50 14-MUTUAL TRUST is an overseas import who is struggling to put it all together down under. Didn’t show much during 1st Australian campaign during the Autumn. 1st up this time in at Flemington stormed home late down the outside, then made OK ground here in the Rupert Clarke. Fitter for the 2 runs in and out to the 1600M should suit. He may go better here with a bit more fitness and distance and guess the 1st up run was OK so you could push for him at odds. Just likely to drop back and need luck and just prefer him to genuinely get into a finish before getting on so we can line up where he fits in – and know he is capable of getting into a race. Passing. 15-BLACKIE has a heap of ability on his day, but is one we find very hard to catch. Does seem to have turned it around recently though with 2 wins in his last 4 starts. One who consistently drops back and runs on, but just seems to need everything to go right to win. 3rd up into this, 1st up run in the Bobbie Lewis was excellent finishing hard down the straight, and very impressive win 2nd up at MV when he scooted before the turn, hit the rails which was the best spot and won very stylishly. He may have turned it around and go on this spring. 4 starts here for nothing is a bit of a worry, and just interesting that his last 2 wins have both been at MV – just starting to wonder if he needs some give in the ground to show his best? Maybe a rough chance if this track stays Dead, on a firm track prefer to let him go around – just can’t catch him regardless. No 3rd W=$24.80 Summary: These feature miles are always great betting races and our general rule of thumb is that we like them to have had 3 runs in, or 2 x 1400M runs to get them ready for a tough, competitive mile. Unusually this year there aren’t many horses meeting that criteria, but if you look back over the list of winners they have more often then not had 3 or more runs in. So often in these races you get a field full of 1600M back markers – and this race is no exception, so many horses always run on late and unlucky in these races. There doesn’t seem to be much speed here at all - 7-BUDRIGUEZ , 16-TRANSPORTER the most likely leaders with 2-SOLZHENITSYN , 9-LORD OF BRAZIL, 10-MOURO , 13-DANY THE FOX (wide) sitting handy. Suspect something racing in the first half of the field will go for home early and probably pinch this – whilst a stack of others run on too late. Despite being 2nd up into this we are going to put the 1-LINTON on top – the 1st up run was huge, wide and exposed all the way and he fought on really well. Just a matter of whether he can get clear running from the inside barrier. The 2-SOLZHENITSYN the obvious danger, excellent 1600M form, 3rd up into this off two good runs, won’t drop too far back and just looks ready to go – just a matter of whether there is one better with a pull in the weights. The 17-BASS STRAIT the one who ticks a lot of boxes with lots of solid 1600M form this time in, and the 9-LORD OF BRAZIL the best value runner by far, very consistent and will get a perfect sit in this race. But in a wide betting race can probably back the (1), (2), (17) to win and take quinellas with the (2) and the (9) as a great value runner likely to be in the finish. One to risk: 5-FERLAX 12th W=$12.00 Roughie: 9-LORD OF BRAZIL The Key: Too many backmarkers in this – look for something on speed. RESULTS: Winner gets a perfect trail into the race - he is such a gun 1600M feature mile horse. Makes a huge difference that he races a bit more forward as there are always so many hard chasing back markers in these races. The 16-SPEEDINESS is excellent running on again - but just doesn't win as often as he should cause of his racing pattern. 9-LORD OF BRAZIL actually raced back from a wide barrier and was making good ground late - keep following this one. |
| RACE 10: CAULFIELD GUINEAS GROUP 1 1600M 3YO C+G |
| Tips: 9-LATE CHARGE 4-LONG JOHN 1st W=$3.60 1-DISSIDENT |
| Others: 10, 3 Pace: PACE Leaders: 10-EL ROCA, 12-NITE ROCKER (wide) Handy: 4-LONG JOHN, 3-DIVINE CALLING (wide), 5-SHAMUS AWARD , 6-ECLAIR BIG BANG, 8-WEINHOLT , 11-CLUSTER , 14-MARWOOD Back: 1-DISSIDENT, 2-CHARLIE BOY, 7-PRINCE HARADA , 9-LATE CHARGE, 13-GREAT ESTEEM Chances: 1-DISSIDENT is Melbourne based but has been racing up in Sydney this spring and has been very competitive in all their 3YO features. Fitter for the 3 runs in and really like that he has had the 1600M run going into this race. Took on the older horses last start and was slightly disappointing but still plenty to like about his two previous runs in Sydney. Caulfield winner, firm track suits, probably ends up going back here from outside barrier. Should be enough speed here to allow fast finishers to run into the race and think he is a very strong chance in this – and may even improve back to Caulfield and Melbourne way of going. Strong chance. 4th W=$8.10 3-DIVINE CALLING has been going along very nicely indeed – jumped and ran and dictated the speed on a track that was favouring leader’s at MV 2nd up, and then super clever ride from jockey in the Bill Stutt Stakes to settle back off them from a wide barrier and made a long tough run into the race and just hung on to win, surviving a protest and Craig Williams wanna be lawyer antics. Likely to go forward here from outside barrier and may get caught a little wide. Note Oliver has jumped off – even after raving about this one last two starts. Hard to knock winning form and Rawiller has an awful lot to prove in this – coming off losing the stable Melbourne Cup mount and his questionable rides on two short priced favourites on this day last year. Again maybe just tending towards the strong finishers, but should be in the finish somewhere. Chance. 2nd W=$14.60 4-LONG JOHN is the favourite in this and deservedly so – has barely set a foot wrong all spring, and without much hype about him either. Prefect preparation for this, 3 runs in, flashed home 1st up at MV, then lobbed on speed and always looked the winner at Flem, and then last start here in the Guineas Prelude he just got a bit further back then you would have wanted with a tear away leader, but got out in the clear and was coming with gusto on the line. Guineas Prelude form is invariably the best form going into this race – and the trick is to find the best run from that race – and think it is him clearly. Finishing on much better than the two in front of him last start, plus meets them both 2kgs better off here. Yet to miss a place in 6 career starts and really has very little fanfare about him. Think he settles handier here from barrier 1 – and that is probably the only concern – the barrier - he looks like a horse that needs to be out in clear running and often this race is won by one finishing hard down the middle of the track. But has the best form going into this so looms as the one to beat. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.60 9-LATE CHARGE is one we have a bit of time for in this. Showed a stack of potential with two barnstorming finishing wins over winter on wet tracks, then given a freshen up and flashed home late at Flem behind the (4). Then wasn’t disgraced at MV when he was ridden a bit more forward than usual probably because on pacers were winning that night. He loomed up to run into the race that night too – but just seemed to die on his run. Change of trainer since last run – double check the facts but from memory the old trainer didn’t want to go to the Guineas and the owners did. Normally the trainer is right too – but us mug punters can train them from the couch and we reckon he is worth a shot in this race too – in fact we think he is a great chance in this. Fitter for the 2 runs in, think he will improve a lot off last run, drawn outside here, ridden cold finishing hard late think he is a great chance at odds in this. Question might just be if he prefers it wet or not though ? But definite chance for us – and best rough chance in this. Go well. 10-EL ROCA is a NZ visitor who didn’t mess around here last start when he jumped on speed, then kicked and went for home early around the turn and almost pinched the race. Fitter for the 3 runs in and you would think would get a lot of improvement off that run. Does meet the (4) 2 kgs worse off for that run. Guineas Prelude form is the right form for this race. Probably gets on OK run in the lead here. Suspect he is going to be in the finish – really liked the way he kicked around the home turn last start and dared them to come run him down. If the track tends towards leaders elevate him significantly. Good chance something coming home late will run over the top of him, but he is a bit of an unknown in this field, suspect he might improve a lot off last run and really he did go for home very early. Chance. Place: 2-CHARLIE BOY was competitive enough in all the Sydney feature 2YO races when he tended to drop back and run on. Won down the straight 1st up in a very even affair where they were spread across the track and then made good ground here in the Guineas Prelude in a race where the on pacers kicked on the turn and it is always hard to run down those types at Caulfield. He was just cluttered up for runs for a little while against the rails in the straight but chased hard once in the clear. Still he was a clear margin behind the 1st three home there – all of whom are going around here again today. Going into this 3rd up – and off 1200M/1400M runs so up in distance again - and most of his rivals have had one extra run on him this time in. Does get the weight drop though going into this as well. Note winkers on first time as well. Has the talent and ability to be in the finish here – and strong finishers are often suited in this race. Rough chance. 5-SHAMUS AWARD has been going along consistently and best thing about this one is that he just jumps and runs and box seats and gives himself every chance. Fitter for the 3 runs in and like the 1200M/1400M/1600M progression to be cherry ripe for this. Didn’t realise he was still a maiden ! but has been thereabouts in pretty much every career start. Fought on well at MV last start, but to be fair that track was probably favouring on pacers. Boss goes on board. Hard to write off his chances, he will be around the finish somewhere and one to definitely put in to your multiples but suspect he might just find one better again. Prefer place. 3rd W=$28.40 6-ECLAIR BIG BANG is coming along very nicely indeed and yet to miss a place in 4 career starts. Fought on really well down the straight 2nd up, and then to be honest, everything fell into place here last start where he box seated, a lot of his main rivals got too far back, one went for home early and he peeled out and had the perfectly timed run into the race, whilst the backmarkers came too late. Can’t knock winning form and he did nothing wrong last start, but just feel like everything fell into place. Guineas Prelude winner is always a strong chance in this and need to respect that form. Drawn a perfect barrier here, and will race handy again – and that is his big plus – he puts himself into the right position and gives himself every chance. We were on him last start and collected, but going to pass over him today though as suspect something running on will run over the top of him here. Place only. 11-CLUSTER is a maiden who has been thereabouts in every race start, but hasn’t worked out how to win one yet. Solid Sydney form, then tracked them into the straight around the bend at MV last start and really had the sit on them – and should have flown past them – but didn’t. Not beaten far at all, but question is whether he knows how to win. Nice barrier here and should get prefect run into race and really nothing wrong with his form – just meeting horses that have the wins on the board. Probably won’t be far away again and a good value place chance for multiples. Place. Sacking: 7-PRINCE HARADA has a huge rap on him and to be honest we have yet to see what the fuss is all about – though maybe today he might step up and show us. Stable has an extremely high opinion of this one. No luck 1st up when got totally squashed for runs against the fence, and then reasonable effort in strong field in Sydney when ran on OK. 3rd up into this, up to the 1600M and had a 1200M/1400M preparation and traditionally the Guineas Prelude is where the winners of this race come through. Will drop out here from outside barrier and run on late. Obviously we have not seen the best of him yet, just prefer something tough and seasoned going into feature miles like this, his preparation has been a bit light and a bit hard to tell exactly how he is going. Note that Oliver is riding this one in preference to the (3)?. Happy to take him on today as suspect one with a few more runs in and form will win this. Risking. 8-WEINHOLT has been racing along consistently, but finding one better each time. Been in the finish each of the 4 runs this time in, and normally just lobs on the speed and makes his own luck. Settled back further than usual here in the Prelude and made OK ground, but meeting quite a few here that beat him home comfortably. Should get a cosy run from this barrier and always tries hard, but just looks safely held against quite a few horses that have beaten him home in the lead up runs. No 12-NITE ROCKER is the rank outsider of this field , but it is not like his form is that bad. 3 starts, yet to miss a place, solid on speed effort last start at MV in weaker grade. Up sharply in distance though from 1200M to 1600M and the outside barrier here is a real issue for a horse that normally goes forward- likely to be trapped wide. Hasn’t done much wrong at all and looks to have some ability – but not in this. No 13-GREAT ESTEEM has been disappointing this spring but note there are some gear changes today. Huge run finishing hard late back over Melbourne Autumn. 1st up this time in ran on OK late, but there was a decent gap from the winner, then even only in Sydney. Jockey got caught up in mad, crazy speed battle here last start which had the trainer fuming. Likely to be in nice position here from good barrier, and has had a solid preparation of 1400M/1400M/1700M so if this a hard tough slog he may be strong at the end of the race. Hard to get over enthused about this form though. No. 14-MARWOOD had been coming along very nicely at the provincials, getting experience and winning confidence with two devastating wins. Started well in the market in the Guineas Prelude when disappointing, but may have had some issues with a nasty cold. Likely to get a great on pace sit here from the barrier and does seem to have a fair bit of ability. Is meeting quite a few here from the Prelude who beat him home though and worth noting that his two country wins were on rain affected tracks and we are likely to get a hard dry track here. Has the ability to win this, as do most of these in a very even field – just hard to have coming off a disappointing run in such a tough even field. Passing. Summary: This is always a great betting race – but this year would have to be up there with the best of them. This race is famous for being full of super hyped and flashy horses – and this year it is a total no name affair. The No Name Caulfield Guineas. None of these have been really jumping out of the ground and none have their own Twitter or Facebook accounts – it is a tough, even gritty Caulfield Guineas. The Caulfield Guineas is often won by a strong finishing miler coming hard and late down the middle of the track. The Guineas Prelude form is invariably the form race for this, and it is usually a matter of working out the best run from that race, taking into account the rise to 1600M and the level weights. 4-LONG JOHN definitely jumps out as the best run from that race and he really ticks all the boxes as a strong finishing miler going into this. The other main form race, the Bill Stutt Stakes was a close, tight finish, but the one we actually want to be on out of that race is the 9-LATE CHARGE who should improve and will be better ridden cold. And of the Sydney form the 1-DISSIDENT seems the way to go. This race can provide the odd upset so don’t be scared to back one at odds. Speed here should be solid and often there is a fair bit of pressure in this race. 10-EL ROCA, 12-NITE ROCKER (wide) the likely leaders, with 3-DIVINE CALLING (wide), 6-ECLAIR BIG BANG, 8-WEINHOLT , 11-CLUSTER sitting off them. Think there will be enough pressure up front here to allow them to run on so looking for the strong finishers. In a super even field with great odds about many of these, we are going to push for a total roughie here, the 9-LATE CHARGE at around $41. Just think he will improve further with the 2 runs off a short break, he flashed home really well late at Flem behind the (4) and don’t think he was suited at MV ridden more forward. Settled back here, back to a bigger track and with a solid speed he may surprise late. The 4-LONG JOHN the obvious danger and clearly the best run out of the Guineas Prelude, and lots of respect for the 1-DISSIDENT on solid Sydney form who might appreciate being back to Caulfield and a firm track. Happy to back all three of these in a wide betting race. Other dangers are 3-DIVINE CALLING with Nash needing to put a score on the board, and just watch out for 10-EL ROCA if they are sticking on well on speed. Great betting race regardless and you can back a few you like straight out in a wide open race. One to risk: 7-PRINCE HARADA 6th W=$5.30 Roughie: 9-LATE CHARGE The Key: Best run from the Guineas Prelude RESULTS: Best run from the Guineas Prelude wins again - and great ride on the winner 4-LONG JOHN to get off the rails and into the race, though he looked in trouble when the 2nd horse loomed. Huge run from 5-SHAMUS AWARD coming from last and fighting on well, surely he must win a race somewhere soon. The 10-EL ROCA was unlucky getting knocked over on the home turn. The winner got pretty heavily backed, but still considering the stable, how short their runners often start and his race record still think he is rather under rated. |
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