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Sportsbet
are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the Caulfield Guineas /
Thousand Guineas. |
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| CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 11th Oct 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): This is pretty much one of the best betting days of the year with the Toorak Handicap, Caulfield Stakes, Caulfield Guineas and now the Thousand Guineas all on the one program. We even have a decent field for the Caulfield Stakes this year, which so often features a six horse field and a extremely short priced favourite. This year, the Caulfield Stakes is pretty much a Cox Plate preview and the best field in this race for a long, long time. Plus this meeting is crammed into between Cranbourne Friday night and Cranbourne Cup Sunday, and represents the best punting weekend of the year in our opinion. Track is currently a GOOD(3) and although there are a few early showers forecast for Saturday it is hard to see it making much difference to the track. Rail stays TRUE, which is the same position it was in for the Rupert Clarke Stakes meeting 2 weeks back and on that day it was definitely favourable to be up and running on the speed despite the windy conditions. Doubt there will be any distinct racing pattern today, they have kept the rail in the same position and with tough competitive fields here should be enough speed in most of these races, though you can never go wrong tending towards on pacers in your bets. Most important thing is how firm the track gets and we have seen several horses failing to handle the string of firm tracks this spring so look closely at the form breakdown for solid good track form. Fantastic day to have a bet, not that anything jumps out in particular, just so much to bet on so let’s double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio. RESULTS: Track is fairly firm on a GOOD(3) and is so often the case on Caulfield Guineas Day the track does play towards on pacers. Those racing on speed tend to fight out most of the races. One of the best betting days of the year and we doubled up in the Betting Portfolio and had lots of nice collects, finding value winners and placegetters. The Betting Portfolio bets were right in the finish throughout the day. BEST BET: Race 9: 3-RICH ENUFF $20 WIN 2nd W=$1.80 Really the favourite should win the feature race the Caulfield Guineas and he has beaten most of these already this spring. Main danger is himself, if he over races and doesn’t settle, and we don’t often back favourites in this race but think $2.80 is actually overs for the dominant 3YO so far this spring. Shop around, see what the best odds are you can find, or use one of the money back offers if he runs the place as an insurance bet, but he really should win. RESULTS: The $2.80 on offer on Thursday was crazy odds and the favourite gets extremely well backed - probably a little too well backed to start at very short odds indeed. Jumped and worked to the lead, gave a kick in the straight but just held off by one with a softer run. Still a great run though, he was coming back and sticking with the winner on the line. BEST WIN: Race 6: 4-HAPPY TRAILS $10 WIN X Continually in the finish of these feature races, and continually underestimated and should have probably won the Cox Plate last year. Really consistent once he strikes form and only just missed here two starts back before getting totally stuck in the slow lane behind one on the rails last week at Flemington. Maybe they might ride him a bit more forward today? This is a really strong even field so you are going to get good odds about many of these, but he looks ready to win and around $8 looks great odds so back him straight out. RESULTS: Goes OK, looms up but doesn't quite go on with it, but not that far off them. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-AMICUS $7.50 EW 1st W=$11.00, P=$2.80 = $103.50 Thousand Guineas is a bit strange this year in that none of the Edward Manifold horses or Sydney horses are going around as it is only a week between runs now with the new racing schedule. Largely the same field as the Prelude then. This one isn’t the best off at weights, in fact she meets most of them worse on weights from last start, but really liked her run. She jumped and sat exposed on speed into a head wind and fought on pretty well in the straight, and was only beaten by one that had a soft run. Should be fitter for that run, and the 3 runs in and did have a month off between the first two runs this prep. Only missed the place once in 6 starts now and she might be a bit under rated. Pretty much the same field, good chance she is going to jump and sit on the speed again and put herself into the finish, and think she is capable of upsetting her more fancied rivals here at around $11. RESULTS: Sum this race up perfectly, track is favouring on pacers, jumps and sits on the speed and a very nice value winner. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-EXIMUS $7.50 EW X Ok, so that was an accident, EXIMUS into AMICUS, this is starting to sound like Harry Potter’s World Of Punting. Been racing really consistently. Loomed up like the winner here two starts back, but the on pacer had a softer run and kicked. Then last start at MV ridden more forward because of on pace bias and looked ready to let loose on the turn but just seemed to flounder over the 1500M. Back to the 1400M here suits much better and probably best with a little more give in the ground, but seeing this is an earlier race might get away with it. Looks like good speed here which will suit and really surprised at the $11 on offer, so looks a pretty solid each way bet if those odds stack up. RESULTS: Gets boxed up for runs on the rails and works home OK. Probably wouldn't have won but should have finished a lot closer. Definitely better outside horses. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-BIG MEMORY $6 WIN 1st W=$6.60 = $39.60 QUINELLA: Race 5: 9-BIG MEMORY, 6-UNCHAIN MY HEART x $2 1st 9-BIG MEMORY W=$6.60, X QUINELLA: Race 5: 9-BIG MEMORY, 12-ALBONETTI x $2 1st 9-BIG MEMORY W=$6.60, X QUINELLA: Race 5: 3,5,6,9,12 boxed x $5 = 50% 1st 9-BIG MEMORY W=$6.60, 3rd 5-LET’S MAKE ADEAL W=$14.70 These staying races are always super even affairs with plenty of chances. There doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of speed in this race and think the 9-BIG MEMORY is going to get a pretty good run up on the pace here. 1st up run was excellent and the winner has gone on, and not far off last start. Plenty of good value other chances though, the 6-UNCHAIN MY HEART at huge odds has had more starts than most of these, but is really racing well and is a fit for the 2400M here and 12-ALBONETTI looks to be on the way up, but just needs them to be running on well. Back the on pacer to win, and take quinellas with him and the value runners, and go again in a box quinella with the perpetually unlucky 5-LET’S MAKE ADEAL, who we really can’t keep tipping. RESULTS: Gets a perfect on pace sit and dashes through and looks the winner on the turn, but goes close to throwing it away. Have to survive a pretty ambitious protest. Not far off the quinella either. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 14-DESERT JEUNEY $5 EW 3rd W=$72.70, P=$14.60 = $73 <------------ check out the odds on that one ! QUINELLA: Race 7: 4,8,11,12,14 x 5 = 50% 1st 4-TRUST IN A GUST W=$4.30, 3rd 14-DESERT JEUNEY W=$72.70 Always a chance something at odds at the bottom of the weight scale will get into the finish in these feature miles, and the (14) has been going along OK. Fitter for the 3 runs in, been running on well late in his runs and flew home late on leaders track last start. Barrier 1 probably not the best and needs to get out and run on late, but worth a little interest bet at around $41. Box up a quinella whilst you are there as well and open something at odds gets into the finish. RESULTS: Wow - now that was a bit of fun for a $5EW bet! Rank outsider 14-DESERT JEUNEY at close to 100-1, pulls out mid way down the straight and threatens strongly. Jockey thought he was going to win - as did at lot of very hopeful Turf Deli punters. Didn't miss what would have been a monster quinella by much either. QUINELLA: Race 10: 2-SHAMAL WIND, 7-GRIANTE x $5 3rd 2-SHAMAL WIND W=$2.50 , 1st 7-GRIANTE W=$8.80 Realistically the 2-SHAMAL WIND is pretty much the bet of the day, but the $2.50 on offer is starting to get onto the shorter side of things. Fitter for the 2 runs in and gets a 2kgs weight turn around from her main rival the (1) from last start when she only just missed. Enough speed on and should be able to run into the race. Probably too short to back though, so let’s try and get some value in the quinella with the (7) who is pretty consistent and should be ready to do something now with 2 runs in – note her excellent Caulfield form. Get out quinella in the last to be used if required. RESULTS: Almost another collect again - found the well backed value winner but picked the wrong one out of the favourites. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7: 6-BULL POINT at around $6 6th W=$7.00 Consistent type who ran well here in the Rupert Clarke, and is often in the finish of his races. Gives himself every chance racing on speed and there isn’t a huge amount of speed in this, but traditionally you want a strong miler in these feature miles and he is unproven at the trip and there has to be some question mark about him. Should box seat and look likely in the finish, but just think something that is a stronger miler will run over him in this. RESULTS: Never looks likely and a safe lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP x $5 PLACE Race 7: 8-SOLICIT X PLACE Race 8: 5-AMICUS 1st W=$11.00, P=$2.80 PLACE Race 9: 8-KUMAON 4th W=$32.90, P=$5.30 PLACE Race 10: 7-GRIANTE 1st W=$8.80, P=$2.20 Don’t think we have taken a Poor Man’s Quaddie (place bet on 4 races) so far this spring and today looks a good day with plenty of good value place chances. The 8-SOLICIT looks like getting a soft lead in the Toorak so might be hard to run down at P=$2.20, the 5-AMICUS we have already mentioned as a great each way bet in the Thousand Guineas at P=$3.30. The value runners in the Caulfield Guineas is the 8-KUMAON at P=$4.80 which will blow out our dividend and come home on the 7-GRIANTE at P=$3.00 in the last. Which means four little place getters x $5 can earn you around $500 and probably better odds on the day. RESULTS: Unfortunately get knocked out in the first leg, else would have been pretty darn close to a big collect here. SPENT: $100 RETURN: $216.10 NET: $+116.10 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. NO THANKS. Race 2: 5-TAWTEEN, 1-EATHQUAKE, 4-SILVERSANDS Race 3: 4-EXIMUS, 3-SISTINE DEMON, 7-TURQUOISE KING Race 4: 7-RUBICK, 6-GREGERS, 3-NOT LISTENIN’TOME Race 5: 9-BIG MEMORY, 6-UNCHAIN MY HEART, 12-ALBONETTI Race 6: 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 10-DISSIDENT, 9-CRITERION Race 7: 8-SOLICIT, 4-TRUST IN A GUST, 14-DESERT JEUNEY Race 8: 5-AMICUS, 3-AFLEET ESPRIT, 6-LUMOSTY Race 9: 3-RICH ENUFF, 8-KUMAON, 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT Race 10: 2-SHAMAL WIND, 7-GRIANTE, 1-GIRL GUIDE |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-TAWTEEN 2nd W=$5.90 1-EATHQUAKE 1st W=$2.00 4-SILVERSANDS Quinella: $4.80 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-EXIMUS 3-SISTINE DEMON 7-TURQUOISE KING |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-RUBICK 1st W=$3.90 6-GREGERS 3-NOT LISTENIN’TOME |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-BIG MEMORY 1st W=$6.60 *** Best Each Way Bet of the Day *** 6-UNCHAIN MY HEART 12-ALBONETTI |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-HAPPY TRAILS 10-DISSIDENT 9-CRITERION 2nd W=$16.70 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SOLICIT 4-TRUST IN A GUST 1st W=$4.30 14-DESERT JEUNEY 3rd W=$72.70 *** Best Roughie Of the Day *** |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-AMICUS 1st W=$11.00 *** Best Each Way Bet of the Day *** 3-AFLEET ESPRIT 6-LUMOSTY |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-RICH ENUFF 2nd W=$1.80 8-KUMAON 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-SHAMAL WIND 2nd W=$2.50 7-GRIANTE 1st W=$8.80 1-GIRL GUIDE 2nd W=$3.10 Quinella: $13.50 Trifecta: $81.70 |
| RACE 9: CAULFIELD GUINEAS 3YO C+G GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 3-RICH ENUFF 2nd W=$1.80 8-KUMAON 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT |
| Others: 1, 4,10 Pace: SOLID Leaders: 2-ALMALAD, 12-LUCKY TOM Handy: 1-OUR VESPA, 3-RICH ENUFF, 4-SHOOTING TO WIN, 9-MERION, 13-ZEBULON Back: 5-ZULULAND, 6-CHIVALRY, 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT, 8-KUMAON, 10-MOONOVERMANHATTAN, 11-STINGRAY, 14-WANDJINA Chances: 1-OUR VESPA is a well performed NZer who got totally side swiped here in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude just as he was about to run into the race in the straight and almost fell. Had no chance at all. Excellent form before that over in NZ and also gets weight drop out of the Prelude and you always need to respect horses who have run well in that race and drop back to even weights here. Last start was first try past 1200M, and out to 1600M today. Plus with this one is that he will sit handy up on the speed, though the outside barrier here isn’t going to help and he is probably going to get caught wide. Going into this with just the two runs in, and normally winners of this race have three runs or more. But he is the unknown factor in this, have to totally forget the last run and he did look like he was just about to run into the race. Firm track no issue. If he can get across from barrier and onto the speed he is a rough chance here. Rough. SCR 3-RICH ENUFF is the boom 3YO of the spring and interesting to see he has gone around at $16, $6 and $3.70 despite impressive wins. Think if he was trained by a big name stable he would have been less than even money his last two starts and an unbackable favourite today, so the $2.80 on offer seems quite reasonable. Jumped to the lead and totally smashed them 1st up, good effort to adjust to straight racing 2nd up and run a very fast time, and really the Guineas Prelude win here last start was one of the better wins in that race for a while. Normally the best run out of the Guineas Prelude wins this race – and think his win was the best run we have seen for a while. He was drawn wide, had to work early, sat on the speed and totally pounced and extended away from them in the straight. Super win. Should be able to sit just off the speed here too and give himself every chance. Question mark is going to be the 1600M here as he is a high energy sprinting type, so he might be vulnerable the last little bit. His main danger probably isn’t his opposition – but himself. He is high energy in the mounting yard, and wants to jump and run so they need to get him to settle and not bring himself undone. Best Prelude win in a while, dominant horse, weight drop into this, on speed, really looks the one to beat and should really win this on form. One to beat. 2nd W=$1.80 4-SHOOTING TO WIN is a Sydney visitor and represents a new form line to the two lead up races in Melbourne. Had the 4 runs in and has been running into form and on pacer drawn a barrier to get a good run in this. Should be able to get a good sit and dash through at the right time like he did last start. Have to like the way he extended away from them towards the finish there. Have to respect form and put in a as winning chance. Chance. 1st W=$7.30 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT looks a very likely type and his two runs in have been excellent. Looked like he was going to run over the top of the (3) 1st up but just didn’t quite get there, and could understand why people thought he would turn the tables on him in the Prelude. Hit a leaders track that day, dropped well back and really chased hard and made significant ground against the winner. Up 200M again here and only the 2 runs in and usually the winners of this race have had 3 or more runs in. Speed on here is going to suit a strong finisher, and lot to like about him today. Guess he has met the (3) twice now and been beaten both times though, and meets him 2.5kgs worse off from Predule run. Would just prefer if he had the one more run this time in, that’s all. He is racing really well though. Chance. 8-KUMAON has a very low profile going into this but may be worthy of some thought. Fitter for the 3 runs in and has done the classic 1200M/1400M/1600M progression and thought the Bill Stutt Stakes run was pretty good actually when he fought on well out wide on a leader’s track. He went widest and earliest there on a leader’s track and was still making solid ground on the line. Proven over the distance and will sit back here from an inside barrier and let it all unfold in front of him. Fair few on pacers in this and if they ride him for luck back in the field good chance the breaks might come his way here. Very low profile, think you will get pretty good odds on the tote and think he represents a great value blow out chance here. Rough chance. 4th W=$32.90 Place: 2-ALMALAD is coming through the other form line, the Bill Stutt Stakes and normally the Guineas Prelude and the Bill Stutt are the only races worth looking at for this race. Fitter for the 3 runs in and has had the 1600M run which is a big plus. Proven over the 1600M and races on the speed and makes his own luck which is important. Another on pacer drawn wide though, so may need to work early. Stable has high opinion of him and have plans to go onto the Cox Plate. Just not sure about the Bill Stutt, the race was a total mess on a leaders track with horses stopping and starting and going early all over the place and plenty of hard luck stories behind him. Have to respect the winner of the Bill Stutt, so rates a chance, but probably just tending away from him today especially trapped wide from the barrier. If we are going to back something from that race probably prefer to back one of the unlucky runners behind him at odds. Prefer place. 6-CHIVALRY was going to be the boom 3YO of the spring till the (3) came along and stole his title. Showed heaps of potential as a 2YO flashing home late and still working out what it is all about, and surprised how quickly he has come on this spring over shorter trips, cause he always presented as a big track horse who wanted further. Fitter for the 3 runs in and had the 1600M run and you can totally forget the last run in the Bill Stutt on a dynamite leaders track. Meets a few of these better off at weights from the lead up runs too. Firm track no issue, and his win here 1st up was seriously good as he came from well back and the on pacers were winning that day. Has the ability, will get the speed here to suit so some rough chance if he can produce his brilliant best. Rough. 9-MERION has a heap of ability and really hasn’t done much wrong so far in his short career. Run off his legs 1st up behind the (3) but made good ground late and then impressive the way he held off the (6) at Flem. Was pretty keen to follow him through the spring, but they decided to SCR him out of the Guineas Prelude because of the firm track to try and protect him. Not that he doesn’t like it firm, they just didn’t want to give him a run on the hard track that early in the spring. Rate him above the (6) from last start. Drawn well, can sit just behind the speed here and give himself every chance with a sit. Just that missed run is really concerning, hard to win this race with only the 2 runs in and coming into this race now with 4 weeks off, which is a concern for a tough feature mile. Likely to go on after today, but prefer place. Place. 10-MOONOVERMANHATTAN is a progressive staying type who will go on as the distances increase over the spring. Fitter for the 3 runs in and in the messy Bill Stutt took a little while to get into the clear and he is a big track, distance horse, so the tight MV straight would not have suited regardless. Plenty of improvement to come and the speed on here will suit. Drawn a nice barrier too. Not hopeless here and he will get out to good odds and is some hope of a boilover in this as he probably has the most improvement to come out of all of these. Might just find something a bit brilliant today, but think he will run on well and go on and worth the value place chances in your multiples. Place. 13-ZEBULON has had only the 2 runs this time in, but the 1st up run was pretty good and he was coming home well behind the (6) and the (9). Total forget run in the Bill Stutt when got shuffled back in the field, went to make a run and it closed, and the jockey gave up after that. Solid 1400M form during the Autumn, and drawn barrier (1) you would think they will ride him a lot closer today? He is much better than the last start, and will go better today, but not sure quite good enough to be a factor here. Place only. Sacking: 5-ZULULAND has had a bit of a flat spring after a very impressive 1st up run. During the Autumn he put together some nice form and his win in the Sires Produce storming home late was very impressive indeed. Looked like he was going to go on with it as a 3YO when he ran on really well 1st up and had no luck when the runs didn’t come over the concluding stages. But hasn’t really put in the last few runs which is a big concern. Best ridden cold as a backmarker. Hard and fit and will almost certainly run a strong 1600M and the pace should be genuine here but just seems to be struggling for form. No 11-STINGRAY has been running most weeks over spring and he has not been disgraced and also has not had the best luck a lot of the time. Really unlucky 2nd up here when got baulked for a run at the right time and then ran on late. Held up again start after at Caulfield. But has been well held behind many of these last few starts and this look too hard for him today. No 12-LUCKY TOM is a QLDer who had nice form going into the Guineas Prelude but was never really a factor. Drawn a nice barrier and looks the likely leader here and note he was ridden back in the field against his normal racing pattern last start. Likely to be a fair bit of pressure up front here and that is going to make it pretty tough. No 14-WANDJINA has been mixing his form, well, really hasn’t been showing any to be honest until he was ridden very quietly here in the Guineas Prelude and made huge ground towards the line on the inside to finish 4th. Sent out favourite last week at Flemington, and riding instructions were to go forward early, but was ridden cold at the back of the field again in a race dominated by on pacers so had little chance. Do wonder if the Prelude run was a little flattering though, he stuck to the inside which was the best going and had cover from the wind. Nice barrier, where do they ride him today? Not sure it makes a difference can’t see him being a factor here. No 3rd W=$86.00 Summary: Always a great betting race as all the 3YOs meet in the one field for the first time and always plenty of betting support for various up and comers. Often get a boom 3YO going into this, this year it is the (3), but really think on his form he should be even shorter odds and he would be if he was trained by one of the big stables. The Guineas Prelude and the Bill Stutt are always the best form races for this race and often it is the best run out of the Guineas Prelude that wins this race. Keep in mind any weight drops from that race too as they all meet at equal weights here. Since 2000, 8 of the 13 winners have come through the Prelude and all of them ran in the first 4 in that race, in fact 6 out of 8 were in the first two in the Prelude. Only 2 horses in that time have won with only 2 runs in their preparation. So what was the best run out of the Guineas Prelude? Well, really, either of the first two, the 3-RICH ENUFF who worked early and wide and kicked clear in the straight, or the 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT who dropped back on a leaders track and chased home hard. Pace here should be pretty genuine, most of these settle forward in the run, with 2-ALMALAD, 12-LUCKY TOM the likely leaders, and 1-OUR VESPA, 3-RICH ENUFF, 13-ZEBULON sitting up handy. Really based on his Guineas Prelude run the 3-RICH ENUFF should win this, his main danger is himself, not settling or over racing and ruining his chances over the 1600M. But his Prelude win was the best in a while, and that is the form race for this one, and think you are getting pretty good odds at around $2.80 considering that, so this is one of the few times we would be happy to back a short priced favourite. 8-KUMAON the no name roughie in this who might pop into the finish at odds and last run at MV was really good, and 7-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT likely to be in the finish again and is probably capable of upsetting the favourite here if things go his way, just hard to win this race with only 2 runs in. 1-OUR VESPA the unknown quality. Happy to back the (3) to win and save with an each way bet on the (8) and looks a great race to have a bet in. One to risk: 2-ALMALAD 8th W=$11 Roughie: 8-KUMAON 4th W=$32.90 The Key: Best run from Guineas Prelude normally wins this race. RESULTS: Great race and you have to feel for the connections of 3-RICH ENUFF who were shattered to have gone that close to a Group One. He worked to the lead and kicked and showed an awful lot of fight down the straight. Best run by far behind them was the 9-MERION, coming off a missed run, had to go wide and early and they weren't making ground today and he finished on really well. |
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