|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 8th Oct 2016|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
This is always one of our favourite betting meetings of the year with the Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas, Toorak Handicap and the non-event that is often the Caulfield Stakes. Fine weather and no sign of rain so this track is going to come up quite firm indeed. Rail goes back to TRUE and Caulfield has raced extremely fairly for a while now, though there is always the chance of the racing pattern tending towards on pacers on this day.
In the Thousand Guineas they Melbourne fillies seem a very, very even bunch and the best runs from the Prelude were the hopelessly unlucky 2-MISSROCK, who may be looking for even further again and is the one to follow going towards the Oaks, and the knows how to win 5-I AM A STAR who may box seat here. Respect the Sydney form may be superior with the 4-FOXPLAY.
In the Caulfield Guineas, again it is a very even bunch and normally the Guineas Prelude form does hold up, but not overly impressed with the Melbourne 3YOs. Once again don’t be surprised if the Sydney form is superior with 2-IMPENDING. Always stick with winning form into this race and the 5-HEY DOC is flying, the 1-SACRED ELIXIR is the Guineas Prelude winner and the value runner is probably the 7-SEABURGE.
In the Caulfield Stakes, take a trifecta FIELD-FIELD-FIELD, just because it is amusing with only 3 runners.
In the Toorak there should be a very genuine speed and many of these have some chance. The 10-THAMES COURT looks like she will get a perfect run on the speed, the 4-HE’S OUR ROKKII is flying and the fast tempo and 1600M should suit the light weight 13-TIVACI finishing on hard and late.
Lots of value in these big even fields and keen to have a bet, so we are going to double up the Betting Portfolio. We have ended up having a bet in just about every race so plenty to keep us entertained for the day.
BEST BET: Race 4: 5-BADAWIYA $15 WIN
Classy filly who is fitter for the 2 runs in. Not sure what happened in poor performance 1st up, but then chased hard in the finish in the Rupert Clarke here last start. Just looks ready to win and there aren’t that many winning chances in this race. Only issue may be getting into the clear from barrier (1), but she can jump and race handy and we want the 8-SISTINE DEMON to run along here and spread the field out. Looks ready to win at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-DANDY GENT $7.50 EW
This one is actually currently the equal outsider in a small, even field. Solid staying type who we think may be a little under rated and improved rapidly last preparation. Much fitter for the 4 runs in and especially the run over the 2500M. Last start the jockey erred and took him to the lead around a fading tear away leader far too early at the top of the straight, but he kicked clear before getting swamped late. There should be a lot of improvement to come from that run. The 4-ASSIGN is the one to beat here and should get a soft lead in a small field, but it is also worth nothing that 6-DANDY GENT has met him twice over this distance and beaten him home both times. Plus there is the feel good story if Michelle Payne rides her first city winner back from injury – and in your face is she beats home her Melbourne Cup winning horse. Back each way at around $10
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-THAMES COURT $5 EW
QUINELLA : Race 9: 10-THAMES COURT #1,4,8,12,13 x $10 = 200%
This one has been doing everything right this time in. Three runs in have all been excellent and the jockey thought she should have won the Rupert Clarke (not sure we believe that), but she definitely was fighting out the finish hard without the clearest run. She will run a strong 1600M and will make her own luck sitting just off the speed here in a fast run race. She should present at the right time and be in the finish again so looks a great each way bet at around $10, and lots of value in the quinella with the flying 4-HE’S OUR ROKKII who just needs to get out form barrier 1, the lightweight 13-TIVACI who will appreciate the 1600M and the fast speed, the Caulfield specialist 8-MISS ROSE DE LAGO, the 1-AWESOME ROCK dropping back in grade and the Sydney visitor the 12-MORAL VICTORY.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 5-I AM A STAR $5 EW
Good chance of a value winner in the feature 3YO races with big, even fields and no real standouts this year. This one was right in the finish in the Prelude, without having much room for most of the straight and most importantly she knows how to win. The 2-MISSROCK was the other outstanding run from that race, but think this one is over the odds at around $20 for a horse that is fitter for the 3 runs in and knows how to win. She should race close to the speed from an inside barrier and if the split comes at the right time this week she will be in the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 7-SEABURGE $2.50 EW
Again, the value outsiders are in the 3YO features. We had actually sworn off this one this time in and thought he wasn’t quite up to these and a bit of a pretender. But looking again, he is fitter for the 3 runs in, has been in the finish each start, and has had to give weight to his rivals. Last start here he was very wide and loomed up nicely in the straight before just dying on the run. Should get a better run this week and will be the one to add value to your trifectas and first fours at around $20.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 7,8: 2,4,5 / 1,2,5,7,12 x $15 = 100%
There should be some value in the running double across the 3YO feature races and we have already commented on most of these and backed the roughies. Value runners in the fillies are the 5-I AM A STAR and 2-MISSROCK from the one to beat the 4-FOXPLAY. Stick with those in winning form in the males like the 1-SACRED ELIXIR, 2-IMPENDING, 5-HEY DOC and the value in 7-SEABURGE, 12-KACHING.
QUINELLA: Race 10: 5-FELL SWOOP, 8-FURNACES, 1-FLAMBERGE boxed x $15 = 500%
Should be a nice value quinella in the last race and struggling to split these three. We are also happy to take on the favourite the 3YO 12-STAR TURN who looks really poor value. The 5-FELL SWOOP is ultra consistent and is perfectly drawn to sit right on the speed. The 8-FURNACES was good first up and has race fitness on these and will go forward in a race where the speed doesn’t look that fast and looks the likely leader. And how can you go past the stats on the 1-FLAMBERGE – yet to miss the place in 7 x 1st up runs (including 4 wins, and a few CHAUTAQUA seconds), only missed the place once in 6 starts this track and distance, 3 times winner this track and last time 1st up here – won the Oakleigh Plate!. Nice value quinella to end the day.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 12-STAR TURN at around $2.80
We did have a 3YO come out and beat the star sprinters last week, but that doesn’t mean it is going to happen every week. Punters do often seem to go 3YO crazy when they go up against the older horses. This one was competitive as a 2YO without being outstanding and has come back well this time in, but meets some pretty decent sprinters here, has yet to win on a firm track and just looks super silly odds at around $2.80. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
TRIFECTA: Race 5: 4 / 2,13,14 / 1,2,8,11,13,14 x $5 = 33%
The 4-SHEIDEL is the one to beat in this race at around $4, fitter for 2 runs in, knows how to win and suited under this weight scale. Just beaten by a freak performance here last start and should jump and go forward and there shouldn’t be that much pressure up front. Trifecta should still pay OK if we anchor him to win, with the improving 13-LAKE COMO and 14-AMERISTRALIA to get into the finish and fingers crossed some outsider lobs into third to blow the dividend up.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. NO BET
Race 2: 6-DANDY GENT, 4-ASSIGN, 7-MASTER ZEPHYR
Race 3: 3-MY COUNTRY, 11-STOP MAKING SENSE, 9-BRULEE
Race 4: 5-BADAWIYA, 3-CHETWOOD, 10-RAGEESE
Race 5: 4-SHEIDEL, 13-LAKE COMO, 14-AMERISTRALIA
Race 6: 3-WINX, 1-BLACK HEART BART, 2-HE OR SHE
Race 7: 5-I AM A STAR, 4-FOXPLAY, 2-MISSROCK
Race 8: 2-IMPENDING, 5-HEY DOC, 7-SEABURGE
Race 9: 10-THAMES COURT, 4-HE’S OUR ROKKII, 13-TIVACI
Race 10: 5-FELL SWOOP, 8-FURNACES, 1-FLAMBERGE