|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 14th Oct 2017|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Always one of the best betting and racing days of the year with the Caulfield Guineas, Toorak Handicap, Caulfield Stakes, Thousand Guineas, and this year, some race in Sydney.
Track is currently a GOOD(4) with a few light showers heading into the weekend, but with the sun coming out you would think it will firm up pretty quickly. Caulfield has been favouring leaders and those on pace for most meetings this spring. However, they did race rail TRUE here last meeting as well, which might even it out today. So we should get even racing, but always pays to be alert to those on speed and well drawn at this meeting.
In the feature Caulfield Guineas, it normally comes down to the best run out of the Guineas Prelude. The best run was actually probably the winner the 8-PERAST, but there does seem to be a fair bit of pressure up front today which might bring him undone, so just leaving him out for now, unless the track favours those on speed. Prepared to forgive the top pick 4-ROYAL SYMPHONY a slightly flat run 2nd up, when he got too far back in a race that the leaders dominated. Blinkers on today and well drawn and hopefully he can settle closer and this race normally favours strong finishers down the middle of the track. The value runner here is the 13-SALSAMOR who looks to be one on the improve, and has finished top two in all 4 career starts. Stepped up in distance rapidly from 1200M to 1600M in the Bill Stutt and finished on very strongly on a leaders track. The 11-KEMENTARI was probably the other good run out of the Prelude and looks suited as a strong finisher up in distance, who should box seat here behind a fast speed. The other one we are interested in is the 7-GOLD STANDARD on speed, taking a sit from a good barrier. Happy to go around 16-CATCHY, dropping back, inside barrier, big field, up against the males in what looks like a strong 1600M tempo, though obviously the stable must be confident to be taking on this race.
In the Caulfield Stakes, we have actually ended up with a stronger field than usual (and at least we got more than last yearís 3 runners). There isnít much depth here past the first few in the market, though this race has seen a few short priced favourites get beaten over the years, normally by the leader in a small field. On that basis we are actually going to push for the 6-JON SNOW as an each way bet, who would prefer some more give in the ground. He was really good winning at MV when he was challenged and drew away from them and depending on what the pesky internationals do here he either leads or box seats and gets the run of the race. The flying stable mate the 11-BONNEVAL the obvious danger, but she will drop back and give them a start and not clear what the speed is here, and the even more obvious third pick 1-HARTNELL who has had excuses this campaign, but still doesnít seem to be quite at his best. Riding tactics going to be crucial for him, and surely they would ride more positively this time?
The Toorak Handicap is an extremely challenging race, but think you can pick through the chances and really narrow it down. There are a few here struggling for form, and a few who are a bit suspect at a strong 1600M, and quite a few who simply donít win. The speed here is only even, with 15-THEANSWERMYFRIEND leading, and the 6-I AM A STAR, 8-COMINí THROUGH sitting off them. The (15) went far too hard in front last start and is capable of leading and winning this if the track is playing to leaders. We want to push for one at odds here though, the 18-WYNDSPELLE who has been really good running on late last two starts, particularly last start when made a very wide run past the middle of the track. Fitter for the 4 runs in, and a winner past 1600M are ticks, just needs to settle a bit closer here from a good barrier. The 6-I AM A STAR finally got back to form last start, and on speed looks to get a good run here, her top level 1600M form is pretty strong for a race like this and she looks over the odds. The roughie we really want to push at odds is the totally under rated and super consistent 7-TURNITAROUND who is capable of doing something here at huge odds, always around the money, fitter for the 2 runs in, and well drawn can go forward if required. Other main chance the 8-COMINí THROUGH with stronger Sydney form a danger and should box seat here from the barrier.
Also keep an eye out up in Sydney where two horses we have been following are going around. Randwick Race 6: 7-FOUNDATION had no luck two starts back at MV when blocked for runs and then given no hope when went back on a dynamite leaders track at the night meeting. Similarly, Race 9:4-STAR EXHIBIT who ran on really well from well back in that race on a night when those who dropped back had no chance what so ever (in fact it happens every year in that race, so no idea why they even bothered running him..)
Always plenty to bet on today, and we have a suggested bet in every race today except the first. So doubling the weekly Betting Portfolio despite the disastrous start to the season. The omen tip obviously being Race 9: 7-TURNITAROUND, which is something we really need to do today.
BEST BET: Race 10: 9-SHEIDEL $10 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 10: 9-SHEIDEL, 2-ROCK MAGIC x $3
QUINELLA: Race 10: 9-SHEIDEL, 5-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD x $2
Mare with super winning strike rate who we werenít quite sure how she was going last preparation and again this preparation, but plenty to like about last start MV run. Fitter for the 2 runs in, last start she was ridden aggressively to the lead on a leaders track and kicked on the turn, but the early effort told and she set the race up for the backmarkers. Strikes a very winnable race here, looks the only speed, being on pace should be an advantage and keen to back straight out at around $3.50. Push for a little more value in the quinella with the 2-ROCK MAGIC who loomed as the winner last start, but just died on the run, and the under rated 5-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD who has been unlucky or the victim of poor rides a few times.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 1-SHOALS $10 WIN
Small field for the Thousand Guineas and really the key here is who is going to run out the 1600M, as some of these may be a little suspect, even probably including this one. The Sydney visitor the 2-ALIZEE is the stronger 1600M horse, but in a small field there isnít much speed up front, just the 6-LEATHERíNíLACE and just wonder how much of a start the (2) is going to give them. Happy to have something straight out on the (1) at around $4, she is a class mare who knows who to win. She was solid chasing to line here last start, and will box seat on the speed and the favourite will have to come out and run her down. Without much pressure on front can see this one possibly pinching the race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-BOOM TIME $7.50 EW
Really open Herbert Power staying race and there is not much between most of these, and it always hard to line up the international runners. Even the ones that are campaigning down here tend to suddenly improve or suddenly lose their form without explanation. This one is just an honest, on pace stayer though who is fitter for the 3 runs in and looks like he has been building towards a nice win this campaign. He should box seat here and give you a good run for your money each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-DUKE OF BRUNSWICK $7.50 EW
There is an awful lot of out of form and non-winning horses in this race and quite surprised about the odds on offer about this one at around $10. He is just about the only fit and in form horse in the field and we are getting double figure odds. Caulfield and distance stats are excellent and taking out the MV flop his form this time in has been pretty good. Hopefully he will savage the finishing post the same way he tried to take a bite out of the winner last start. Probably wants to push forward from an outside barrier here in a race with no speed, and he has race fitness over the main danger the leader the 2-RELIGIFY. Looks a solid each way bet in a poor quality field.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-JON SNOW $5 EW
Fit, on speed stayer, who whilst probably does want it wet, may be a little under rated. Really liked the way he drew away from them last time over the 2000M at MV and will be up and rolling and well ahead of his more fancied stable mate the 11-BONNEVAL on the turn here. If the track is favouring those on speed he is a real chance of upsetting her in this and happy to back each way at around $9 in a race where he looks to get the perfect run.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 1-LEGLESS VEUVE, 9-PRINCESS OF QUEENS x $5 = 500%
QUINELLA: Race 3: 9-PRINCESS OF QUEENS#3,4 x $2 =- 100%
This race looks a pretty solid betting race and the favourite the 1-LEGLESS VEUVE should be hard to beat. There should be nice value in the quinellas though with the super consistent 9-PRINCESS OF QUEENS who has been racing well and was caught out facing the breeze here last start when just faded late. Take a confident quinella on the (1) and (9) and save with a smaller one on the (9), with the other chances the (4) and (3).
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 16-THE QUEENíS REWARD $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 2,5,9,11,12,16 boxed x $5 = 33%
This one has been really good in two career starts to date, and was an eye catcher finishing hard late down the Flemington straight last start. Look to have plenty of ability and upside, concerned about the inside barrier as a drop back horse in a big field, but if the breaks come she is going to be in the finish here at around $21. Plenty of value in a big field in the quinella, so load up some roughies like the 11-TARCOOLA SPIRIT, 5-WANTED DIVA and 12-FROM THE CLOUDS and hope for result.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 13-SALSAMOR $3 EW
This one looks clearly the best roughie in the Caulfield Guineas, yet to finish further back than 2nd in 4 career starts and was really good finishing hard late last start at MV on a leaders track. Was up sharply in distance that day from 1200M to 1600M and should have plenty of improvement to come and has drawn a nice barrier here. Looks a really good rough chance at around $23.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 18-WYNDSPELLE $2 EW
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 7-TURNITAROUND $2 EW
We have gone pretty rough in the Toorak Handicap, in what looks a very open race. The (18) has ran on really well last two starts and looks to be building to a win, drawn a nice barrier here would be good to see him ridden a bit closer to the speed. The (7) is super consistent, up in class in this, but fitter for the 2 runs in, drawn well, can go forward if required and keeps running well at good odds. Happy to back both at rough odds of $26 and $51 and throw both in your quaddies if you are looking for a result.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 3-JORDA at around $4.40
Current favourite in a very big field, but is coming off a Flemington straight track flop and whilst you can make excuses, you should also be a bit wary. Drawn inside in a big field, and is going to have to work to push forward with runners coming from the outside. Might as well get our Lay of the Day out of the way early, and they have had a nasty habit of box seating from these inside barriers this spring, but just think in this sort of race you want to back a few $20 shots rather than a favourite. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 6,7,8,15,18 boxed x $5 = 50%
Seeing we have gone super rough in the Toorak Handicap, we better put on a box quinella as well. The value roughies are 18-WYNDSPELLE, 7-TURNITAROUND, with the in form on pacers the 6-I AM A STAR and 8-COMINí THROUGH and the leader the 15-THEANSWERMYFRIEND who might settle better in the lead today. Box them all up in a quinella and hope for a result in an very open race.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. PASS. PLENTY TO BET ON LATER.
Race 2: 9-TRUE EXCEISIOR, 16-THE QUEENíS REWARD, 11-TARCOOLA SPIRIT
Race 3: 1-LEGLESS VEUVE, 9-PRINCESS OF QUEENS, 4-COOL PASSION
Race 4: 2-BOOM TIME, 5-ALOFT, 8-GALLIC CHIEFTAIN
Race 5: 5-DUKE OF BRUNSWICK, 2-RELIGIFY, 10-OREGONíS DAY
Race 6: 1-SHOALS, 2-ALIZEE, 6-LEATHERíNíLACE
Race 7: 6-JON SNOW, 11-BONNEVAL, 1-HARTNELL
Race 8: 6-ROYAL SYMPHONY, 13-SALSAMOR, 11-KEMENTARI
Race 9: 18-WYNDSPELLE, 6-I AM A STAR, 7-TURNITAROUND
Race 10: 9-SHEIDEL, 2-ROCK MAGIC, 5-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD