|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 13th OCT 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Fine sunny weather leading into the weekend and really we have barely had any rain in weeks in Melbourne. Track is currently a GOOD(4), but expect it to dry out and be getting firm on a sunny Saturday. Caulfield has been racing really fairly of late, they can win leading or running on, in fact runners on have probably been going better. Just watch if the track gets really firm and favours on pacers, but otherwise it should be fair to all runners.
This is one of the best punting and racing days of the year, with four fantastic Group 1s and a really strong support card. However, we now have unknown overseas imports popping up in just about every single race which can make lining up the form really difficult and annoying. We have done the form preview for each of the feature races below.
We have a what could be a classic edition of the Caulfield Guineas, which is always about spruik Sydney horses versus Melbourne horses, and realistically the Sydney form has been better in recent years. This year we get the classic set up, a super spruiked short priced Sydney miler back maker in the 1-THE AUTUMN SUN versus a fit, tear along leader in the 2-NATIVE SOLDIER. The market really seems to suggest there are only a few winning chances, but Caulfield Guineas do normally have far more depth than that, if you can find something outside the top few.
Looking at the main chances, 1-THE AUTUMN SUN was really strong late over the 1400M in the Golden Rose and was trapped wide most of that race. Query is always Sydney back markers coming to Caulfield for the first time, but he does look all class and a very strong miler. We do think he is under the odds though and poor value, especially as we expect he may need to be pushed along early to keep up in a race with a tear away leader. The 2-NATIVE SOLIDER has been in impressive flying form, and we have been on in both of his Caulfield wins, identical runs, drawn wide and dash to the lead and kick away in the straight impressively. He meets everything from the Guineas Prelude better on weights so is clearly the best run from that race and should have everything from that race covered. Actually draws a good barrier here, but they are sure to use the same daring tactics. There doesnít look to be much pressure up front here either, there is a slight danger he can over race, but he should kick clear in the straight again and be hard to run down. Just the 1600M is the query, even the trainer has said so, but his form does remind us a lot of STARSPANGLEDBANNER who also led all the way to win this race. His chances will really come down to track pattern, if the on pacers are going well he is going to be very hard to beat. The 4-LEONARDO DA HINCHI has been racing super consistently, and has shown really impressive fight in his last two races. Drawn wide, but will go forward and sit behind the leader here and will tough out the 1600M in this.
The speed in the Caulfield Guineas looks genuine, but there doesnít look to be that much pressure up front. The 2-NATIVE SOLIDER should zoom to a clear lead, from the 11-TAVISAN, 7-MUSWELLBROOK and 4-LEONARDO DA HINCHI. The race is winnable for the (2) and we have tipped and backed him in both Caulfield wins and always had the intention to stick with him today, but we are going to jump ship and switch to the 4-LEONARDO DA HINCHI. Can just see him sitting pretty behind the leader here, and he is tough at the finish of the race, so if the leader over races or starts to get the wobbles he should run him down. He is going to have a decent head start on most of the back markers too and think they will struggle to run him down. The 2-NATIVE SOLIDER the main danger and elevate if on pacers are winning and will definitely be having a saver as his two Caulfield wins have been sensational. Being boring and putting the short priced favourite 1-THE AUTUMN SUN in for third, has the talent and ability, but not sure the race is going to be run to suit and likely to be trying to come from well back, so think the odds are poor value. In terms of value, the best roughies are the 13-MR EXCLUSIVE who was really good in the Guineas Prelude late, and can sit on speed from a good barrier and the 6-GEM SONG, who is double figure odds with nothing wrong with his form and represents a new form line. Betting plan is to back the first two selections who seem value based on their Melbourne form.
In the Thousand Guineas, we have got a pretty big field for this race. There is a distinct lack of speed though, with the unbeaten short priced favourite the 5-SMART MELODY the only likely leader, and 1-EL DORADO DREAMING, 9-ARISTOCRATIC MISS, 13-PEACEFUL sitting handy. We are going for the Sydney visitor the 2-FIESTA on top here, she has been racing really well in Sydney, represents a new form line in this, and like that she has had one extra run in than most of her rivals here. Would probably want her to kick up from the inside barrier in a race with not much speed and take the box seat, and jockey Walker does like his inside runs. The 4-THRILLSTER as the main danger, has been racing consistently all spring and really knuckled down and chased hard here last start and might be able to beat home the favourite with the rise in distance. The 5-SMART MELODY for third, and really the class filly normally wins this race, but suspect the money is going to come for others here and she might drift a little. There are actually some good value roughies in this race, the 13-PEACEFUL was well backed at Flemington and was badly held up for runs most of the straight, and should be able to go forward here with not much speed up front, and even the rank outsider 9-ARISTOCRATIC MISS, who is going better than her form looks, has had some messy runs in Sydney and should go forward here in a race with not much pressure up front and may run a lot better than her $61 odds suggest.
In the Toorak Handicap, we have a good old fashioned capacity field with plenty of lightly weighted horses. These feature handicaps are always awesome betting races and you want to go with genuine 1600M horses. There is a stack of speed in this, with the 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, 7-HELLOVA STREET, 12-CLIFFíS EDGE, 18-AL PASSEM all capable of going forward and the 8-I AM A STAR and 9-LITEíN IN MY VEINS pushing across from outside barriers. That should set the race up for something running on late, and the 4-SHILLELAGH was really good late in the Epsom, finishing on strongly, and won the feature Cup Week mile 3rd up last spring Ė so has good form now in several feature miles. The value runner is the 17-WAGING WAR, who is fitter for the 2 runs in, proven at the mile and didnít like racing in tight room here last start. Drawn a good barrier and should be bursting through at the end of the race at good odds. Actually even putting in the import, the 2-JUNGLE CAT, who was really tough late here winning last start and this race should be similarly run. Other chances to the 8-I AM A STAR who was injured in this race last year when finished last. Best roughie is the 13-KINGSGUARD who should be fitter for the 2 runs in, has solid 1600M form, and will get a nice on speed run from the inside barrier. Very even betting race and can probably back a few runners here to win.
In the Caulfield Stakes, we are getting more and more of our spring punting races mucked up by trying to work out what the unpredictable overseas horses are going to do. As always if they havenít raced here and we canít line them up, then just donít see the point on betting on unknowns. This race often has a short priced favourite, but we have a really even field this year. The speed doesnít seem that fast, the overseas visitor 1-BENBATI can lead, so can the 6-HOMESMAN (but that stables horses only really seem to run along in the lead when they have another runner in the race), and the 11-SEDAZNER can sit handy. Otherwise, this field is over burdened with back markers so they wonít go that quick up front. Think you have to go with the proven WFA 2000M horse in this field Ė and thatís the 2-HUMIDOR who seems over the odds with a few Sydney visitors into the field. He has consistently proven himself at this level for several years now, and take out that poor Flemington run and his form is first rate this spring. Firm track, and out to the 2000M suits and just think he has the class and turn of foot to beat these. The 6-HOMESMAN the main danger, again, rolling out on the lead without much pressure and seems to be one on the improve in his second Australian preparation. The 12-UNFORGOTTEN the best of the Sydney visitors and one who is looking for further and a fast run race. Keen to beat on the top pick each way though as the proven WFA performer.
Plenty to bet on today. Watch how short the best omen bet since PHAR LAP was a baby, Race 1: 13-UTZON, the white horse, by THE OPERA HOUSE starts on the tote. You canít get more topical than that, unless the jockey was A.Jones.
For the rest of the day, we are doubling up the suggested bets to $100 again this week, even after flopping last week when all the favourites won. Seems to be an awful lot of value long shots today that we are going to have a dabble on, and betting strategy would be to back several runners to win in each race as in big fields you can back a few and still make a profit.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 13-SNITTY KITTY $15 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 5: 13-SNITTY KITTY, 12-SAVANNA AMOUR x $2.50 = 250%
QUINELLA: Race 5: 13-SNITTY KITTY, 4-FAATINAH x $2.50 = 250%
Awesome name, and even more awesome Caulfield record where she is yet to miss the place in 7 starts. Tough on pacer, who just sat back a bit on a furious speed last start at MV and stuck on well. Not as much pressure up front today with only other leaders being the (3) and (4) and she can get a perfect on speed sit here from a good barrier. Looks a very winnable race for her and keen to back straight out at around $5. Take a quinella with the two main dangers, the very under rated 12-SAVANNA AMOUR, who ran on well without being pushed last start in a very unsuitable MV 1000M race, and the rolling on pacer 4-FAATINAH who looks over the odds. Looks one of the more confident betting races on an open program.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 2-FIESTA $6 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2,4,5,8,9,13 boxed x $7.50 = 50%
We have a short priced favourite and class horse 5-SMART MELODY n the Thousand Guineas, but suspect she is going to drift and there are plenty of other genuine chances. This one has been racing really well in Sydney, has the 1600M run this time in and hoping from an inside barrier in a race with very little speed they may push forward and take up a handy position. Represents the new form line, has been racing really consistently and looks over the odds at around $12. If the favourite does bomb out there is plenty of scope for a nice quinella, with main dangers the 4-THRILLSTER, the consistent 8-KRONE, and there are two good value roughies in this race in the 9-ARISTOCRATIC MISS and 13-PEACEFUL.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 2-HUMIDOR $7.50 EW
The proven class WFA horse in this field and surprised we are getting $9 about him. Form this time in has been excellent, if you take out that Flemington run, and he was finishing off really nicely here last start. Focus is all on horses down from Sydney, but here you have a proven WFA 2000M horse onto a preferable firm track who has been racing really well this spring. Each way at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 4-LEONARDO DA HINCHI $7 EW
TRIFECTA: Race 9: 2,4 / 1,2,4,6,13 / 1,2,4,5,6,7,11,13 x $7.50 = 15%
We have surprised ourselves by switching to this runner in the Caulfield Guineas, but can just see the race panning out to suit him today. Been racing extremely well all spring and has shown he is tough in a fight. There isnít much pressure up front here, he can go forward, and sit just behind the tear away leader the (2), maybe even sit on his outside and pressure him a little? Can just see him grinding home and proving a bit tougher than that one over the 1600M, whilst the backmarkers come home too late. Happy to back each way at around $10 for a horse that looks like will get the run of the race. Also take a cheeky trifecta based on the top two pick fighting out the race, which will blow out nicely if the favourite gets too far back and something at odds falls into a place.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 8-ILLUMINAIRE $2.50 EW
Sometimes you look at the form and wonder why horses are such long odds. Like this one, who has had 5 starts, never finished further back than 5th and been running in decent quality city races. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and went OK here last start when sharply up in distance and was leading in a race where there was a fair bit of pressure up front. Better suited dropping back to the 1200M here, and although drawn wide will go forward with a few others. If there isnít too much pressure up front think she is going to run a race at around $61 currently on the TAB fixed odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 2,3,13,14 boxed x $3 = 50%
Really annoyed we missed this one sneaking over to Adelaide and winning at double figure odds two starts back, coming off two of the biggest forgive runs you will ever see. Got burnt up on a furious speed here 1st up, and then dropped back to last on dynamite leaders track at MV and ran on well. Good win 2 starts back and then last start was in the finish and just starting to poke through for a narrow run in the last 100M and got totally stopped in her tracks. Placed in this race last year and has a good Caulfield record and drawn a nice middle today. Genuine chance at around $23 and box in a quinella with the three main chances the (14), (3) and (2) in a very even race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 13-SIN TO WIN $2.50 EW
Solid staying who should be ready to do something now with the 3 runs in. Was really good here 1st up and then impressive second up run in Sydney when had to make very wide and early run and stuck on well, and happy to forgive run last start when was wide all the way and wasnít given the best ride. Better the Melbourne way of going, solid Caulfield record and can go forward here from an inside barrier. Should give you a pretty good run for you money in the last at around $31.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 1-BIG DUKE at around $6
We were struggling to find a Lay Of The Day today as there arenít that many horses under $5. We did strongly consider Race 2: 9-ICONOCLASM, but there isnít much depth to that field. We have a big, even staying field in the last and although this guy is a proven stayer and fitter for 4 runs in, he hasnít been showing enough this time in so far for us. Comes into a big even staying field as top weight, onto a very firm track at the end of a sunny day, and think he prefers more give in the ground. Likely that one of the imports pops up anyway (no, no idea which one). Happy to risk at around $6.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
$5 ALL UP PLACE
PLACE Race 2: 3-GRANDE ROSSO
PLACE Race 3: 10-GOLDEN HALO
PLACE Race 4: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS
PLACE Race 5: 12-SAVANNA AMOUR
Letís try and get our Poor Manís Quaddie paid out before we get into the bigger fields later in the day. In Race 2, the 3-GRANDE ROSSO is a consistent 1400M on pacer in a crappy field, and normally take a few runs to find best so should do something today. The Race 3: 10-GOLDEN HALO has been racing well and blinkers go on today, the Race 4: 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS was really unlucky last start and goes well at Caulfield, and come home on the under rated Race 5: 12-SAVANNA AMOUR who should be coming home nicely in the sprint race. Looking at around $900 for a $5 outlay and think we might give it a shake today.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. OMEN BET: 13-UTZON
Race 2: 3-GRANDE ROSSO, 8-SIRCCONI, 4-FASTNET TEMPEST
Race 3: 10-GOLDEN HALO, 1-SUNLIGHT, 8-ILLUMINAIRE
Race 4: 14-LEATHERíNíLACE, 13-PRINCESS OF QUEENS, 3-WINTER BRIDE
Race 5: 13-SNITTY KITTY, 12-SAVANNA AMOUR, 4-FAATINAH
Race 6: 2-FIESTA, 4-THRILLSTER, 5-SMART MELODY
Race 7: 4-SHILLELAGH, 17-WAGING WAR, 2-JUNGLE CAT
Race 8: 2-HUMIDOR, 6-HOMESMAN, 12-UNFORGOTTEN
Race 9: 4-LEONARDO DA HINCHI, 2-NATIVE SOLIDER, 1-THE AUTUMN SUN
Race 10: 6-LORD FANDANGO, 13-SIN TO WIN, 8-BRIMHAM ROCKS