|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 12th October 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
We have a few showers heading into the weekend, but not enough to really affect the track which should stay a perfect GOOD(4). Rail goes back to the TRUE position for the first time since Memsie Stakes Day. There has been a distinct racing pattern at Caulfield this spring that in the early races they can run on and win OK, but as the day progresses the track tends towards those leading or on speed and historically Caulfield Guineas day can often favour on pacers. Basically you can never go wrong picking out on speed horses well drawn regardless.
This is pretty much the best racing and punting day of the year, so we will do a detailed form preview for each of the feature Group One races.
In the feature Caulfield Guineas, we donít have one of those dominant 3YOs this year, so itís a pretty even field and there is probably a good chance of a good value winner. The 3YO form has been pretty messy this year, there doesnít seem to be much between them and it basically might come down to luck in running. The speed in the race looks even with the 10-ROCCABASCERANA leading and he is the sort of horse that might fire up and run along if pressured, but that seems less likely with the scratching of the other leader the 6-THE HOLY ONE, with the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD, 2-CONQUEROR and 18-GROUNDSWELL all sitting handy.
The rule of thumb for this race is normally to just pick out the best run from the Guineas Prelude and you should be just about right, especially this year with not much coming down in the way of Sydney form. Going around the Prelude winner the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD a little, he is unbeaten (and therefore probably just about due to lose), but also had pretty much the perfect run in that race, meets a few worse off at weights and think a few behind him have more improvement to come than he does. The 2-DALASAN deserves to be favourite, probably should have won the Prelude when coming hard late after just getting a little too far back in a leader dominated race, and positive jockey change to a more senior jockey. Barrier is a big concern for a go forward horse here (and blinkers on first time) with a bit of speed up front, and he can do a few things wrong still. He is the one to beat, and wins if he shows his best form and gets luck in running but hard to tip or back with confidence. Others from the Prelude like the 10-ROCCABASCERANA was good on speed, leading and kicking and will improve with the run up in distance and chances have improved dramatically with the scratching of the other potential leader, and a lot of respect for the second emergency 18-GROUNDSWELL who is into the field now, has had only the three starts, and is drawn to get the perfect run just off the speed with plenty of improvement to come. But we think the best run from the Prelude by far was actually the 5-SUPER SETH, he dropped out the back from a wide barrier, got inconvenienced by a jockey falling off, and still managed to come home hard to beat the entire second division in a race where the first four on speed kicked and cleared away from them. Really strong run to pass so many horses, and he has been consistently measuring up against this level all campaign. He drops in weight from the Prelude, and has drawn a good barrier, just need the jockey to be a bit more positive early and have him settled mid-field or better. Of the other form lines in the race, the 15-SOUL PATCH will drop back from an outside barrier and has untapped ability, just wish he had one more run this time in so we could line him up better, and the 7-SUBEDAR will appreciate the speed here and will run out the 1600M from a good barrier. The best roughie is probably the 13-VEGAS KNIGHT who was excellent at Flemington a few starts back, put in a dud run the start after, and then was good in the Stutt Stakes when went forward early against normal racing pattern and was caught wide and hit the line well. Form is actually quite similar to MIGHTY BOSS who surprised at $100 a few years back.
Very confident top pick here on the 5-SUPER SETH and keen to have a bet at around $11 and suspect there will be a good move for him, from the favourite the 2-DALASAN who will need everything to go right, and the different Sydney form line the 7-SUBEDAR if itís a pressure 1600M suiting runners on. Respect for the 18-GROUNDSWELL if he gets into the field, elevate the leader 10-ROCCABASCERANA if that is the racing pattern, and the value roughie is the 13-VEGAS KNIGHT.
For the Toorak Handicap, there is probably no more delight for a punter than seeing a full capacity field of quality milers in the form guide to mull over. The speed here should be genuine, but a lot will depend if they go forward with the out of form 3-CLIFFíS EDGE, or the badly drawn enigma 9-TOM MELBOURNE. If these go forward there should be a fast speed joining the likes of 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY, 18-MISS SISKA up front, else these leaders will get a fair easy ride, and the ever consistent legend 7-STREETS OF AVALON should settle in just behind them. Assuming they can run on and win OK then the 5-NIGHTíS WATCH is a clear top pick here, excellent run 1st up here when held up for runs the entire length of the straight and should have won, and then solid effort in an on-pace dominated Makybe Diva. Drawn out, drops back and can run over the top of them as long as the racing pattern allows it. The 13-MAHAMEDEIS is absolutely flying this preparation and the main danger, wasnít suited by the leader dominated race carrying weight here last start, much better back at the 1600M and he just needs a gap to open from barrier 1. Throw in the 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY for third as the best of the on pacers (note the weight difference with the (5) from their last meeting though), and respect the 4-WIDGEE TURF who has excellent third up and track and distance form, just not sure what that trial since last run was about. Best roughie is the 7-STREETS OF AVALON mainly because he will do what he always does, settle just behind the speed and try his hardest, and the lightly weighted 17-DYSLEXIC as the new form line. Keen to back the top two pick straight out though.
The Caulfield Stakes is complicated this year because there are lots of first run in Australia internationals which are impossible to line up so just watch the betting market. The main question is going to be if any of them can go forward, as this race is often won by leaders and is also often not kind to short priced favourites. Very wary of the 2-GAILO CHOP leading here, his track and distance stats are sensational, won 3 and placed 5 from 6 here and won 7 from 14 at the 2000M. He won this race two years ago leading, is fitter for the 2 runs back from injury and does look ready to produce and this looks a very suitable race. The 7-HOMESMAN is the one to beat though, dead-set shocker of ride to drop to the back of the field here last start on a track that was favouring on-pacers, should jump and sit behind the leader this time and has been racing extremely well, was a pretty good effort to go so close to winning here last start. Respect for the 5-AVILIUS, but prefer to be on the other two at the odds on offer today. Best rough is the enigmatic 6-HARLEM who has been going along OK and doesnít show his best till he gets out to 2000M.
In the Thousand Guineas, we have the 1-LYRE, 2-TENTLY, 3-FLIT all in blue and all talented fillies who drop out the back of the field like a cycling peloton and that means that sometimes they need luck and also means they can get beaten when well in the market, so no surprise to see all of them have had that form report this time in. Just be wary how the track is racing here, it is a relatively small field and if there is any sort of on pace advantage the leader the 4-ACTING is going to be very hard to run down. Though guess the small field also means the blue brigade are less likely to run into dead ends. The red of the 7-MISSILE MANTRA isnít much better, drops back and runs on and teases us every start, but probably prefer her runs to those of the top three, she has had a more solid preparation for the 1600M, and like that she is drawn out to run on out wide and the step up in distance should suit. Just think the odds about the leader 4-ACTING here are crazy considering she beat all of these home last start, from the 7-MISSILE MANTRA and 3-FLIT. Best roughie is the untapped 10-EMERALDS from Sydney who represents the different form line.
This is always a great betting day, we have struggled to find anything at odds today which is unusual and looks like most of those in the market should fight out the finish. We are going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio and try and craft out a betting package to keep you entertained (and hopefully in the black) for the day.
BEST BET: Race 7: 7-HOMESMAN $10 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 7: 7-HOMESMAN, 2-GAILO CHOP x $3
Has been going along great this spring and probably should have won here last start when dropped too far back on a track that was favouring on-pacers and did really well to loop the field and just get outlasted to the line. Should be fitter for the run, and most importantly hopefully will go forward today and sit up on the speed in a race that could be leader dominated. Back straight out at around $4 and save with a saver win bet or quinella on the 2-GAILO CHOP who we are very wary of as he looks ready to show something and should get a clear soft lead here, so might be hard to run down at $11.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 5-NIGHTíS WATCH $7.50 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 9: 13-MAHAMEDEIS $7.50 WIN
The Toorak Handicap is a very even betting race, but we think these two stand out so are keen to back them both straight out. The (5) has a stack of ability, was hopelessly held up for runs 1st up here with a big weight when should have won, and then was even at the top level last start. Speed on here should suit and should run over the top of them. The (13) is flying this time in, ready to peak today with the 3 runs in, was good with weight here last start and is much better suited up in distance to the 1600M. Back both straight out at around $7 and $11 and you might get better odds about them on the tote come race time in an even betting race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-MANDELA EFFECT $5 EW
Letís warm up early in the day in a small, but even field. This is one of the mighty Tasmanian invasion dominating our races, who has proven himself here before and was a standout black booker when zooming home late 1st up at MV with weight and ran into a dead end. 2nd up and up to 1400M and would need them to be running on OK, but small field should assist and looks a nice each way bet at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-MERYL $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 2,4,9,13,15 x $5 boxed = 50%
There is a bit of depth to the mares sprint and most of these have some chance. This one has been going along really well this spring, much better than the form guide suggests and she has proven herself at this level before. Last two starts have been in open class Group 1 and Group 2 races, she has started long odds and held her ground nicely in much harder company. Perfect draw to sit just behind the speed here and should present into the race at the right time at around $7. In an even field there should be plenty of value in the quinella, so take a box quinella with the smart backmarker 4-EMBRACE ME, the value roughie from Sydney the 9-IMPROVEMENT, and two down the bottom who go OK for a result, the 13-TOFANE and the 15-ZOUBO who isnít hopeless at $61.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-ACTING $5 EW
We do have a super short priced favourite in this race in the 3-FLIT, who was super unlucky last time and suspect will get backed into the red and will be extremely hard to beat. But nearly all of these are out to the 1600M for the first time and we donít know if they are going to run the trip. This one just seems good value for a horse that beat all of these home last start, is going to lead uncontested in a small field and might just got on her winning way. Have something each way at around $10 and at least you will get a good run for your money.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-SUPER SETH $10 EW
This is our main bet of the day and one we are most keen to back at the odds in the feature race. Proven at this level and just thought the run in the Guineas Prelude here was sensational, dropped out the back from a wide barrier, got inconvenienced by a jockey fall, the four on-speed horses ran away from them in a pack to fight out the finish, but he went past the whole second division. Gets a weight drop from that race too. Well drawn today, we just need to jockey to be a bit more positive and take up a position mid-field or better and things will be looking most promising indeed. Confident each way bet at around $11.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 8-DONíTTELLTHEBOSS
FIRST FOUR: Race 3: 2-LOVING GABY/ 8-DONíTTELLTHEBOSS/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7,9,12 x $3 = 15%
FIRST FOUR: Race 3: 2-LOVING GABY /4,5,6,7/8-DONíTTELLTHEBOSS / 4,5,6,7,9,12 x $3 = 15%
We are struggling to find anything at odds today for the Best Roughies. Actually thought this one would be much longer odds, but she is currently about $8, and suspect will drift on the day as a horse people donít know much about. Last two starts are much better than they look. The Flemington run shows she was 13th all the way at $100, but the form guide is lying. She actually made a dash closest to the inside (which was the worse going), and was contesting the lead about 100M to go in that race before fading late and then ran an excellent 4th again at $100 in this class at MV last start (obviously everyone, including us, missed that run on the video!). She is going along OK, just expected much better odds and the favourite here the 2-LOVING GABY is going to be extremely hard to beat. So letís try and manufacture a first four by anchoring the favourite to win and our roughie to run a place and hope something at odds fills the other placings to make for a bigger collect.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 4-DESPATCH $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 4-DESPATCH#8-BONS AWAY, 3-THE BOSTONIAN x $4 = 200%
Again struggling to find value roughies, so the best we can do here is an $11 shot who we suspect will drift on the day. Under rated sprinter who managed to win the Goodwood at only his 8th start and has been pushed out to WFA 1400M races this spring which didnít work out. Drawn barrier (1), much better suited back to the 1100M and should sit on speed with not much pressure up front so expect improvement today. Something each way at around $11 and value quinellas with the strong finishers the 8-BONS AWAY and 3-THE BOSTONIAN.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 1-LYRE at around $5
We really struggled to find a Lay of the Day today so full disclaimer this isnít written with much confidence. Just one of the many blue brigade back markers that needs luck in running, the stablemate the (3) is probably going better if the runners on win and we prefer the (7) as a backmarker, and if on pacers win it will be the (4). Which means this one gets left out, is going OK, needs to prove can run the 1600M and prefer to let run at around $5.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 2,5/2,5,7,10,13/2,5,7,10,13,15,18 x $5 = 12.5%
Should be plenty of value around the trifecta in an even feature race. Narrow it down to just two winning chances the 5-SUPER SETH, 2-DALASAN, hope something at value like the 10-ROCCABASCERANA leading or roughie 13-VEGAS KNIGHT runs a race and something out of the ordinary gets in for third. Note we have left the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD out here as we are looking for a collect, you may want to add it back in if you are not feeling that brave or foolish.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. STOP FOR A COFFEE
Race 2: 9-MANDELA EFFECT, 3-ROX THE CASTLE, 7-WAGING WAR
Race 3: 2-LOVING GABY, 8-DONíTTELLTHEBOSS, 5-ATHIRI
Race 4: 2-MERYL, 9-IMPROVEMENT, 4-EMBRACE ME
Race 5: 4-GLORY DAYS, 11-SULLY, 1-PRINCE OF ARRAN
Race 6: 4-ACTING, 7-MISSILE MANTRA, 3-FLIT
Race 7: 7-HOMESMAN, 2-GAILO CHOP, 5-AVILIUS
Race 8: 5-SUPER SETH, 2-DALASAN, 7-SUBEDAR
Race 9: 5-NIGHTíS WATCH, 13-MAHAMEDEIS, 11-AGE OF CHIVALRY
Race 10: 8-BONS AWAY, 4-DESPATCH, 3-THE BOSTONIAN