|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS Ė 10th October 2020|
|Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
We have consistent rain through Weds and Thurs putting the track at a SOFT(5) with more showers heading into the weekend and clearing by Saturday. Think that means we are looking at a track on the worse side of soft even if the rain eases off and want to look for genuine wet trackers. Rail goes back to TRUE, moved in from OUT 6M at the last meeting when the rails were actually off, so suspect you wonít want to come too wide in the straight today either. Genuine wet trackers, well drawn and taking the splits back to the inside seem to be the horses to look for.
The fields have ended up a bit smaller than usual, especially in the support races, but there is still plenty to bet on (as always). Most of these favourites should be in the finish and should be hard to beat, so maybe early races the best way to go is a confident win bet and a saver quinella with the main danger. Always plenty to bet on today on one of the best racing days of the year, so we will double up the Betting Portfolio to $100 and have a bet in most races. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
Feature form preview for the four Group One races below
Race 8: Caulfield Guineas
The Caulfield Guineas is always one of the best races of the year, especially when the hyped up Sydney 3YOs come down and we have to line up the form between Melbourne and Sydney. Often we tend to steer away from the hyped horses, but we think the 3-OLE KIRK is actually under hyped, his career form has been sensational and think in previous years a horse with his ability would be at far shorter odds. Caulfield Guineas are normally a true, tough 1600M test, but there actually doesnít seem to be that much in the way of speed this year Ė we have the 12-NATIONAL CHOICE leading again from the 5-CAPTAIN CORELLI , with 14-POLAND and 6-CROSSHAVEN behind them, and the 1-TAGALOA, 8-LUNAR FOX, 13-GRAND SLAM settling forward. The tempo should be only even though, so something on-speed with a quick sprint can definitely win this. One form history item to note, in the last 30 years only 3 horses have finished worse than 4th at their lead up run and won the Caulfield Guineas.
Going through the field the 1-TAGALOA is a bit of a mystery horse to line up as he has avoided the traditional lead up races going into this race. Tough, gritty, on-speed Blue Diamond win, and then not disgraced in the Golden Slipper. Tough on speed again in a blanket finish here 1st up when carrying weight, and fair enough when wide all the way in the Rupert Clarke and not beaten far against older horses, maybe expected him to just do a little more there. We canít really tell how he is going, and were intending to let him run today as a result, but just starting to warm to him on-speed, inside barrier, on a wet track and slogging out the finish, he is tough and gritty so think the race is actually going to be run to suit him and he is a genuine chance. Largely taking on trust though based on his form. The 2-KINGíS LEGACY worked home well last start in Sydney, but really he got a clear run all the way, whilst the (3) got checked, dropped back and still went quickly past him. He might be better off over a mile and did seem to appreciate the extra distance when the (3) loomed in the Champagne Stakes in the Autumn and he lengthened away from them. Handles it wet, but likely to drop out from an outside barrier first time Melbourne way of going and whilst he will probably work home OK, he will also probably give something too big a start and prefer as a place chance. The 3-OLE KIRK we have been following since his surprise first start win down the straight at Flemington at long odds when he stamped he was a horse going places, and if you have the time go back and watch all of his 7 career runs, they have been sensational. He is continually hitting the line well and has an uncanny knack of getting caught behind horses when full of running, but when he does get clear he really accelerates as was the case in his last Sydney win. Probably should have won a few more races than he has. He has ran well on heavy tracks so the rain shouldnít be an issue. Well drawn, better if he can be outside runners and just seems to have a bit of a buzz about him Ė and surprised it is not more of buzz we have a bit of an opinion of him and think he is definitely the one to beat here. The 4-MAMARAGAN has been well held in his three Sydney runs this time in, he did show better form as a 2YO, but the other Sydney horses look to have his measure on recent form. Likely to be at the back of the field as well.
The 6-CROSSHAVEN really has done nothing wrong at all in his career, winning 4 of 5 and only being beaten one length in his other start when he probably should have placed here 1st up. Seems to be extremely under rated, we even dropped off after the Flemington win, but he could do no wrong in the Guineas Prelude camping on speed and the race was all his and the Prelude form often holds up in this race. Proven on wet ground and even meets the others coming through the Prelude on slightly better weights, but just has no buzz about him at all for some reason. Drawn outside and likely to roll forward and sit behind the speed, and present at the right time once again and does seem to be very generous odds for a horse that handles it wet and has won his last two starts against most of these. The 7-AMISH BOY appears to be building nicely this spring and both runs this time in have been full of merit, poking through at long odds 1st up down the straight, and he chased the winner home well last start in the Prelude. Probably settles around midfield and not sure the inside barrier is the best for him, but the extra distance should suit and think he is going to go on this spring so he may be some blowout chance here. The 8-LUNAR FOX stuck on OK in the Stutt Stakes along the inside which was the worse going, and carried a very big weight the start before at MV when not beaten very far. He has had the three runs in and the benefit of a 1600M run which the rest of these have not, and he can settle handy from the barrier and did beat the favourite here back at Flemington in March. Probably unlikely to win, but as a long shot for your trifectas and first fours he is probably going to run better than the market suggests and is probably the best roughie in this field. The 9-MOíUNGA obviously had parents who gave him one of these new trendy names and was going to be the spruik horse from Sydney, but the (3) seems to have taken over favouritism. Flashy strong finishing type who has gone through his classes very quickly and is unbeaten in three career runs. Likely to drop back from an outside barrier around Caulfield first time Melbourne way of going and unless the racing pattern is strongly favouring those running on late would prefer to risk him Ė the 4 weeks between runs going in a feature Group 1 is a bit of a concern for us.
The 10-AYSAR creates some interest for us, coming off winter form, but tough winning with weight at Sandown and then dropped well back and a long last in an on-speed Guineas Prelude and hit the line extremely well. Even though he is drawn wide suspect they will go forward here today (listen for riding tactics) and think he was probably the best run out of the Guineas Prelude which is always a very positive pointer. The 11-CAMBOURNE had its first start just six weeks ago so has come an awfully long way in a very short time. Strong finishing impressive winner first two starts and then well supported in the Guineas Prelude when dropped back and came through the middle of the field and hit the line well. Drawn out and probably drops back again, just wonder if he is going to find this level too much so early in his career, but be interesting to see if he gets market support. The 11-NATIONAL CHOICE has ability but was dropping out to long lasts in leader dominated races so never getting warm. Blinkers on first time last start and taken to the lead and fought on OK. Assume they go forward again here from an inside barrier, but unless there is a strong on-pace pattern hard to see him being a factor in this. The 13-GRAND SLAM is well drawn and will sit handy and is fitter for the two runs in, but is coming through much weaker form races. Worth nothing he has carried 2kgs more than the (14) last start and was only just beaten and it was actually a really good run, sitting on-speed into a head wind on a day that favoured back markers. Form through the (10) suggests he is probably not as far below these as the form suggests, so another good roughie to place for wide exotics. The 14-POLAND was also competitive with the (10) at Sandown, and hit the line really well to win last start, but did get all the cover on a day that favoured back markers. He is another who has only had the 3 starts and only commenced racing late August. Do like the way he hit the line last start, but he did also have all the favours so prefer others at this level. The 15-CAPTAIN CORELLI is likely to go forward and either lead or sit second here, proven on wet ground, and even effort in the Prelude but was well held by many going around again here so unlikely to be a factor.
The Caulfield Guineas is always a great betting race and for once we are actually going to back the Sydney form with confidence here, think the favourite 3-OLE KIRK is stand out here. Has always shown so much potential and even if he does finds trouble, he knows how to pick up and get moving again and looks nicely drawn to sit outside runners and finish over the top of them. Probably at the right odds now, these Sydney horses often get well backed in this race so may even start a lot shorter. Main danger and value winning chance is the 10-AYSAR who was really good from last here last start when not aggressively ridden to the line, would probably want to see riding tactics to sit midfield at least though. The 6-CROSSHAVEN has won all the traditional lead-ups, handles it wet, just needs to get a spot rolling forward from an outside barrier but seems very generous odds and very under rated based on this form. Respect for the 1-TAGALOA, just not totally sure how he is going this spring. Best roughie is probably actually the 8-LUNAR FOX and there are two good value long shots for your trifectas and first fours in the 13-GRAND SLAM and 7-AMISH BOY. Punting plan is to have a solid win bet on the top pick, a saver on the second pick and a wide exotics with the favourite to win and these value runners to get into the finish.
Race 6: Caulfield Stakes
Small field as is often the case for the Caulfield Stakes, but this can be a funny tactical race and short-priced favourites have been beaten in this race more than once in the last twenty years. The 1-GAILO CHOP is the clear leader here in the small field, from the 3-LEVENDI and assume they take the 6-RUSSIAN CAMELOT forward again.
Going through the field the 1-GAILO CHOP is a very tough on-pacer when right, and has good Caulfield stats and won this race when very well backed in 2017. Fitter for the two runs in off a dud preparation, and he actually sat 4th last start and fought out the finish really well to the line, so think he is just about ready to do something. Wet ground suits, he is the likely leader here and donít be surprised if he gives this race a bit of a shake-up. The 2-HUMIDOR seems to have come back better than ever after his career was looking in doubt, both runs in have been similar, very quiet rides at the back of the field, sticking close to the inside and saving ground and finishing home late. Drawn to do the same again in a small field, question is if they go fast enough in front for him and although he ran well last start, we do prefer him on firm ground. The 3-LEVENDI is coming back from a very long injury layoff and gradually running back into form, fitter for the two runs in and did stick on better than expected last start Ė will be out of his level at WFA against these though. The 4-HARBOUR VIEWS was ridden ice cold last start in a strange choice of tactics, worked home OK, but really given no hope and thought he was a danger in that race. Wet track suits and fitter for the two runs in and you would think they would settle more forward today, but he is meeting four horses who beat him home last start at the same track and almost same distance, so hard to have. The 5-ARCARDIA QUEEN stuck to the inside in a much talked about ride here last start and she fought it out with the (6) most of the straight and actually went a lot better than we thought she would. She probably has a better turn of foot than the favourite, and on a dry track in a sit sprint race would actually tip her to beat him, but not convinced she is best in wet going. The 6-RUSSIAN CAMELOT apparently has the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup and Tokyo Olympic marathon and Miles Franklin award already won with his huge amount of talent. He has been ridden more forward this time in which is sensible, and his wins have been good, but hardly outstanding. Assume they go forward again today in a small field? Actually think he is too short and beatable in this, on a dry track we would probably tip against him, but think on a wet track and tougher slogging conditions he probably has these covered, but doesnít look a betting proposition to us.
The Caulfield Stakes tips are 6-RUSSIAN CAMELOT winning from 1-GAILO CHOP and 5-ARCARDIA QUEEN but not a race we are keen to bet on and will probably just have an interest bet each way on the 1-GAILO CHOP leading to cause the upset.
Race 7: Thousand Guineas
Fairly open field for the Thousand Guineas this year, and really behind the favourite the 3-INSTANT CELEBRITY there doesnít seem to be much between these at all. There doesnít appear to be much speed here at all, with the 5-VANGELIC leading from the 8-NIGHT RAID and 9-ODEUM, but not much pressure up front on paper.
Going through the field, the 1-HUNGRY HEART is the Sydney visitor and the Sydney form could well be stronger this year. Has been building towards this race nicely and does seem to want a strong mile. Quick back up from last week, switching to Melbourne way of going and inside barrier for a drop back horse has to be come concern, but may just be better than these. Think she does want a genuine speed and to get outside horses though so might need some luck in the run. Note blinkers first time today so maybe can race more forward? The 2-THERMOSPHERE was tough winning outside on speed last start, and had been well held before that up in Sydney which gives us a form line on the Sydney form. Inside barrier is a turn off for a horse likely to drop back in a race where the tempo doesnít seem to be that fast. The 3-INSTANT CELEBRITY is flying and handled the steep step up in distance and class easily last start Ė has to be said the track was favouring those off the rails, running on late so she was suited. Likely to drop well back here, but at least she is drawn out to get clear running and seems to have the class and form to win this. The 4-PERSONAL was good on speed here last start, was closer to the inside which was the worse going and seemed to be sticking it out nicely to the line so the extra distance will suit. Well drawn and can sit handy off a slow tempo here so looks a rough chance at odds. The 5-VANGELIC is the leader from Sydney, there is unlikely to be much pressure up front in this, so maybe a chance if the track is favouring those on-speed. They have been going pass her though, so suspect that happens again today. The 6-ECUMENICAL had good Adelaide form last preparation and is fitter for the two runs back in, but has been safely held by the (3) both starts this time in and that is likely to happen again.
The 7-ALDENSFIELD hasnít done much wrong in her career to date, and loomed like the winner 1st up at MV before the (8) got a split through the field, and ran into the race very nicely last start before seeming to just run out of steam and couldnít catch one with a softer on speed run. Nice middle draw and can run into the race at the right time and looks a strong each way chance in this with more improvement to come. The 8-NIGHTíS RAID has been racing well, led here last start but was safely held, likely to race on-speed again today and likely around the finish but probably finds one better so solid place chance. The 9-ODEUM had no luck at MV and then got the perfect sit on speed last start to win, that win might have been a little flattering but is likely to get the same run again so some chance. The 10-ROCK MY WAND was good late here last start and may be suited over further today, but Sydney form not as strong as the others and prefer as a place chance. The 11-MOZZIE MONSTER was really good late here two starts back, and then stuck to the inside worse going last start but was still disappointing. The 12-AGREEABLE keeps promising to do something and is definitely looking for more distance and note the blinkers do go on today which might make a difference. Drawn out and will drop back again, and although she has ran on OK a few times think she needs to show a fair bit of improvement to be competitive here. The 13-LOVE SENSATION stepped up steeply in class last start and ran pretty well so probably has a fair bit of improvement to come, will probably settle handy from the barrier so maybe a rough place chance. The 14-YOSEMITE looks safely held on her run here last start and would have to improve substantially to be a factor.
Before doing the form we were planning to put the favourite on top, but having had a closer look actually think there is a good value each way chance in this that is capable of causing the upset and that is the 7-ALDENSFIELD. Done nothing wrong in career to date, has ran into the race strongly last two starts and looked the winner. Like that she is well drawn and can probably settle just behind the speed and forward of her main rivals in this and she might run into the race early in the straight and prove hard to run down. The talented strong finishing 3-INSTANT CELEBRITY as the main danger, will need a genuine tempo and the racing pattern to favour those running on, and have to pay attention to the Sydney form of the 1-HUNGRY HEART but will need a few things to go here way today. Best roughie is the 4-PERSONAL who should stick along on speed pretty well.
Race 9: Toorak Handicap
Feature mile handicaps are always great betting races for punters and this year is a perfect example, plenty of great value chances everywhere you look. The Toorak field this year is very well stocked for dead-set drop back milers, but we do have a few that can go forward and make it a genuinely run race, with the 9-ACHERNAR STAR and 15-BUFFALO RIVER leading, from the 11-SIRCCONI and 12-AGE OF CHIVALRY both crossing from outside barriers. After that though itís the back markers, and basically we have a stack of drop back back-markers and a small groups of leaders and not much in between. Note the weight spread here isnít as wide as it seems, with only two runners under 55.5kgs.
Going through the field, the 1-MR QUICKIE either wins brilliantly, or doesnít place and there wouldnít be many horses who have won more times than they have run 2nd or 3rd. Fitter for the 2 runs in and ran home really well first up at WFA before not doing much 2nd up, and looks like they have decided he is a miler rather than a stayer. Inside barrier, dropping to back of a big field, top weight in a handicap and query on wet ground means we will be passing. The 2-CASCADIAN has had three runs in Melbourne and they have all been pretty much identical, dropping out to last and finishing on really well too late, and he ended up running into dead ends in the Rupert Clarke when he had plenty to give. Good draw here and would be great if they could teach him to settle midfield at least, he would win so many more races. We said last start we were waiting for Flemington and 1600M with him, at least we get the 1600M today, and despite the big weight the wet track is a big plus for him and this finally looks like a suitable race this time in so he is a strong chance today. The 3-SO SI BON is a tough old campaigner who doesnít win out of turn, he has been going along OK this time in, and worth noting that almost half of his career wins and placings have been at Caulfield. He is probably one of the few horses here that can settle in the middle of the field which might be a bit plus in a field of two distinct groups, but he just seems to find a few better most starts and think he is being weighted out of these races now. The 4-I AM SUPERMAN really had very little form going into this campaign, but was confidently supported first up and won accordingly and flipped to Sydney and did it again. Runner up from last start ran well in the Epsom and he is well drawn to sit just behind the leaders and get the perfect run into the race here so has to be respected. Maybe back him today and hitch a ride back across the border? The 5-SUPERSTORM looked to have a stack of upside based on his spring 3YO preparation, but to be honest his preparation has been all over the place this time in, kicking off over 1100M which was far too short, dropping back and running into a wall of horses 2nd up at 1400M and then suddenly leaping into the Turnbull over 2000M against the top liners last week. Wasnít disgraced there, but very hard to line up how he is actually going. Drawn out here and will drop well back, but probably the first time this spring he has been entered for a suitable race. Capable of winning this, maybe just a slight query on a wet track but definite winning chance on firm ground and would strongly elevate if they are winning running on.
The 6-CHIEF IRONSIDE surprised with an impressive feature mile win last spring and didnít really show much form over winter, but was good 1st up in a feature race in NSW. He was unlucky in this race last year with 52kgs so has to carry 5 kgs more this year. He can probably settle mid-field here from an inside barrier, but think faces a task with this weight at this level with only the one run this time in. The 7-MANDELA EFFECT is well drawn and is one that can settle midfield so probably needs a closer look, solid 1600M record and handles it wet as well. Fitter for the two runs in and wasnít disgraced last start when was not ridden out to the line because of a lack of running room. Impressive 50% career strike rate so certainly knows how to win. Up in distance again here, but is probably some rough chance here and likely to further drift come race time. The 8-REYKJAVIK is extremely talented, but struggles to find the right races, wet tracks and Flemington 1600M is his go. His form is actually much better than it looks, carried a monster weight at Flemington and still ran home well, then the Caulfield 1200M was far too short, and ran on extremely well last two starts, and he was probably the unluckiest of the many unlucky runners from the Rupert Clarke when the winner came out and took his running about 200M out. Although his Caulfield form looks ordinary, take out the 1200M run and he has been right in the finish last two starts here. Rain and wet track is a big plus and he may have been set for this race? Just needs them to be winning running on OK, but think he is a strong chance here at nice odds. The 9-ACHERNAR STAR is fitter for the 2 runs in and was suited by the slow tempo up front in the Rupert Clarke, but the 1600M on a wet track at this level, with one or more taking him on in the lead probably means he faces a challenge today. The 10-SIKANDARABAD has been re-invented as a miler by his new stable after several frustrating campaigns, and note that he did run 4th in this race last year. Wet ground suits and he probably wonít be as far away as his odds suggest, but likely to find a few better at this level.
The 11-SIRCCONI is one of the toughest on-pacers going around, but he has been in work a very long time, since April. Just about pulled off a feature race here in the Lawrence when the winner had to throw everything at him to get past, and then just failed to run down tear away leader here start after. Tempo of race just didnít suit last start at MV when the pressure went on early, but was right in the finish against some top line horses. He will go forward here and be hard to run down again, just concerned others here have more improvement to come and he must be near the end of his campaign. The 12-AGE OF CHIVALRY looked promising 1st up, and then we were pretty disappointed with the run second up when he looked like he was going to struggle to run a place. Raced on-speed in a slowly run Rupert Clarke and even though he wasnít beaten far probably could have done better as race was run to suit. Drawn wide, will have to push forward, definitely better on firm ground and not sure how well he is going so happy to let run today. The 13-JUNIPAL is flying at the moment and has been pretty consistent for a few campaigns now, dominant win here last start on wet ground, With 55.5 kgs he probably doesnít get as much weight off some of these as we would like, and his Group and Listed record isnít as good as some of the other runners here, but he does seem to be in career best form. Looks the one to beat on form, but actually think he is under the odds in the current market. The 14-HARLECH is a NZ visitor who didnít do much 1st up and hard to have in this. The 15-BUFFALO RIVER is the current favourite, lightly raced with a lot of spruik on him and excellent wet track form. Will lead here with the (9) but it is bloody hard to win these feature miles leading. Up in class here, 2nd up and up in distance, and despite having a stack of potential think he represents really poor value unless there is a strong on-speed racing pattern.
Awful lot of runners and information to go through, but we actually think the current favourites in this market are poor value, and maybe look for something that can settle midfield, and those with 57kgs or so actually arenít that badly weighted on this weight spread. We are actually going for a value runner on top here, the 8-REYKJAVIK, we think he has been going really, really well and we have been waiting for him to get to 1600M and a wet track and as long as they can run on OK he is a nice rough bet at odds. The 13-JUNIPAL is the main danger and is in flying form, probably would just prefer slightly better odds about him at this level. The 2-CASCADIAN is the other one suited by 1600M and a wet track and might have finally struck a winnable race. Respect the chances of the 4-I AM SUPERMAN who looks to get the perfect run here, and the 5-SUPERSTORM who is very difficult to line up but another who finally gets to a suitable race and might be the class runner coming over the top of them here over a strong mile. Strongly elevate him if the track comes up dry or if they are running on and winning OK. Best roughie is actually the 7-MANDELA EFFECT who will get a very nice run midfield in this. Punting plan is an each way bet on the top pick at around $30 and a wide running double going in and out of the race.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 10-DIAMOND EFFORT $15 WIN
Quality sprinting mare with excellent Caulfield and wet track form and she was awfully unlucky last start at MV in a Group 1 race where she was racing in tight room behind the speed and couldnít get clear and finished off nicely once a gap came and probably should have placed at least. Drawn out to sit off the speed here and run into the race at the right time and looks a good chance for her to pick up a well-deserved good race. Back straight out at around $4 and the odds should hold up as there are a few going well amongst her opposition who may also get support.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 3-OLE KIRK
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 3 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,13 / 1,2,6,7,8,10,13 x $15 = 35.7%
Going to do something a bit different here and instead of backing the Caulfield Guineas favourite straight out at around $3.30, we are going to look for some value and anchor him to win in a wide trifecta. Deserves to be favourite and may even start shorter and has a stinging turn of foot to win this and looks the winner to us. There are some good value place chances in this, including the consistent 6-CROSSHAVEN, the improving 7-AMISH BOY, the 10-AYSAR off a good last start run and the roughie 8-LUNAR FOX so letís see if we can get a decent trifecta collect instead that would be more than the straight win bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 1-LETZBEGLAM $5 EW
Good run 1st up down the straight in what has ended up being an extremely strong form race. SCR last start over 1400M and back to a sprint trip here and last time she was here she won impressively on-speed in a Blue Diamond Prelude. Small field and there doesnít seem to be a lot of speed in this, so think she can sit handy again (or even lead) and might be able to pinch this race. Seems over the odds at around $10 in a small field with good form.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 8-FIESTA $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 8-FIESTA #2,4,7,12 x $4 = 100%
Consistent performer who doesnít win out of turn, but ran on really well here first up on a track that was favouring leaders and meets the winner from that race 2kgs better here. Little bit of give in the ground suits, probably would want to see her ridden a bit more forward in a race where there doesnít seem to be much speed up front, but a repeat of last start would put her right in the finish here. Back each way at around $10 and anchor in a quinella with the strong finishing 2-EXHILARATES, the in-form leader the 4-FELICIA, the talented but unreliable 7-LYRE and 12-PARMIE just because she is a horse we follow.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 7-IN GOOD HEALTH $6 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 7-IN GOOD HEALTH, 3-ORDEROFTHEGARTER x $3 = 300%
QUINELLA: Race 10: 7-IN GOOD HEALTH#9-CHAPADA, 10-GALLIC CHIEFTAIN x $2 = 100%
Fit and in-form and surprised everyone with his win here at $60 two starts back but then backed it up with a pretty good on-speed run here last start. Looks the clear leader here, and actually think there is a chance for him to pinch this race in a smallish field against some more staying types that wonít pressure him in the lead. Back each way at around $7 and save on a quinella with the main danger the improving stayer and short priced favourite the 3-ORDEROFTHEGARTER who has been good, but not super impressive in this wins. The 9-CHAPADA keeps promising to produce a good campaign, so maybe this time in and there is a good value wet track roughie in the last the 10-GALLIC CHIEFTAIN whose two runs in have both been really good making ground late and often peaks 3rd up.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-ALDENSFIELD $5 EW
As discussed in the form preview, we are quite warming to this runner as a good value chance in the Thousand Guineas. Both runs in have been excellent, she has presented into the race at the right time and looked the winner but just found one better. Settling just behind the speed here from a good barrier and with more improvement to come she is likely to hit the lead and look the winner midway down the straight today and might get a break on her main rivals who are backmarkers, Quite keen to have something each way at around
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 8-REYKJAVIK $5 EW
Strong wet track miler and although we might not get as quite a wet track as anticipated, he appreciates any give in the ground. Last two runs have been excellent and probably goes close to winning the Rupert Clarke here last start if the winner didnít take his run. Been waiting for him to get out to the 1600M, drawn out to get clear running today and pretty confident he is going to run at race at around $30.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 15-BUFFALO RIVER at around $4
Current favourite in the market, and a horse who has been racing well and has heaps of potential, but these odds seem to reflect potential rather than form. Good run 1st up, but 2nd up and up 200M, and exposed form is on wet tracks and now starting to look like this track wonít be as wet as initially predicted. Will go forward, but it is incredibly difficult to win these feature miles leading and although he is at the bottom of the weights, there are plenty of well credentialed strong milers in the field that look better value, and suspect one of them will win today. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to hire a protective plastic bubble to roll around Caulfield in.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 3: 3-TRAVIMYFRIEND
PLACE: Race 4: 8-FIESTA
PLACE: Race 7: 7-ALDENSFIELD
PLACE: Race 8: 6-CROSSHAVEN
Time again for a Poor Manís Quaddie, being the place getters in four races. The dear old Race 3: 3-TRAVIMYFRIEND looks a good kick off, he is normally pretty reliable and gets some weight relief against his main rivals today, wetter the better for him. The Race 4: 8-FIESTA is a pretty reliable place getter, and the value runner in the Thousand Guineas the Race 7: 7-ALDENSFIELD should get a good run on-speed. Come home on the under rated Race 8: 6-CROSSHAVEN who seems way over the odds at $3.40 the place for a horse that has won both of the traditional lead up races. Looking at a very nice $500 return for a $5 outlay and think we might give this a shake today.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. GET BEST SPOT ON THE COUCH.
Race 2: 1-LETZBEGLAM, 3-SWATS THAT, 2-BELLA NIPOTINA
Race 3: 4-CUBA, 3-TRAVIMYFRIEND, 6-WINDSTORM
Race 4: 8-FIESTA, 4-FELICIA, 2-EXHILARATES
Race 5: 10-DIAMOND EFFORT, 4-ORDER OF COMMAND, 8-DIRTY WORK
Race 6: 6-RUSSIAN CAMELOT, 1-GAILO CHOP, 5-ARCADIA QUEEN
Race 7: 7-ALDENSFIELD, 3-INSTANT CELEBRITY, 1-HUNGRY HEART
Race 8: 3-OLE KIRK, 10-AYSAR, 6-CROSSHAVEN
Race 9: 8-REYKJAVIK, 13-JUNIPAL, 2-CASCADIAN
Race 10: 7-IN GOOD HEALTH, 3-ORDEROFTHEGARTER, 10-GALLIC CHIEFTAIN