|CAULFIELD: CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 8th October 2022|
|Track: SOFT(7) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Plenty of torrential rain over Friday which has now turned into sunshine, so itís a bit difficult to know how this track is going to come up but assuming worse side of SOFT with a few occasional showers keeping it wet. Rail back to TRUE should see even racing, maybe chopping up and coming off rails later in the day and suspect the inside may not be the best ground. Caulfield Guineas Day is always one of the best racing days of the year with the Caulfield Stakes, Caulfield Guineas and Toorak Handicap so time to dive into some serious form and doubling up the Betting Portfolio to $100 on a day we normally go pretty well on.
Caulfield Guineas Preview
The Caulfield Guineas has come up quite weak this year and we donít have the usual contingent of Sydney horses coming down. One thing that is quite noticeable is how few starts so many of these have had (even allowing for them being 3YOs). This year 13 runners have had less than 5 starts, and 7 runners less than 4 starts. In the last 30 years only 3 winners have won with less than 5 starts prior (4 starts for Kenwood Melody, Godís Own, Weekend Hussler) so some of these do seem to face a pretty difficult challenge. Although this is always going to be relative to the strength of the opposition, these historical form lines are often a good way to find a winner in these feature races.
There are very strong historical form lines for this race with the winner invariably coming through the Guineas Prelude, Golden Rose/Stan Fox or Stutt Stakes and usually you want a horse that has won or placed at their last start. The speed is a little difficult to assess, mainly because so many of these are lightly raced and might change their racing pattern, but we should see the 1-TIJUANA, 3-GOLDEN MILE ,11-ELKINGTON ROAD and 14-LETHAL THOUGHTS going forward, just a bit hard to work out in what order they settle.
Runner by runner comments:
1-TIJUANA looks to have had the perfect preparation for this, last start winner of the Stutt Stakes, three runs this time in and they have all been competitive against these. Really liked the lead all the way win back in April at Flemington, drawn well and likely to lead or sit handy here from a good barrier. Did have the plus of the leaderís track at MV last start, but was ridden to suit the pattern and fought off the challengers, maybe not quite impressive though. Looks to handle it wet and right in this.
2-BERKELEY SQUARE probably has a class factor on many of these, and seriously impressive winner from last at Flemington last start weaving through the pack which is not easy to do. Looks a solid staying type, question mark might just be if he wants longer than the 1600M, but the wet track probably assists as this may be a bit of a slog. Well drawn and can probably sit in clear running mid-field and run down the middle of the track. Only query might be that the Flemington race is not normally a key form race for the Guineas, but basically he has beaten most of these previously so looks the one to beat today.
3-GOLDEN MILE is the standard Godolphin Blue Sydney favourite but more importantly has Golden Rose form ticked. Only Sydney runner to come down for this which is most unusual. Well drawn and likely to go forward and Golden Rose run was pretty good when was fighting out the finish for the length of the straight and only just headed by two very good horses inside the last 50M. Canít really fault his form, question mark might just be if $3 is value in a big even field on a tough slogging wet track? What odds would he be if he wasnít in blue? Definite winning chance.
4-MILLANE has been competitive this time in and form is probably better than it looks, ran on well behind smart one 1st up, leaders track MV 2nd up and then worked home OK when switched to Sydney in the Golden Rose. Wet should probably be OK, not sure he is a winning chance but probably a place chance whacking away in the straight.
5-BANK MAUR has only had the two runs in and is coming off a Sandown win which are negatives from a traditional form line point of view but really like how this horse is going. Ran on very strongly behind a good one at Sandown two starts back and really liked the last Sandown win, he showed a turn of foot and think he might be one on the rapid improve this preparation. Would probably prefer a dry track and suspect a wet track may take some of his dash away and really see the outside barrier as a big issue, he will have to drop well back against these and really slog away in the straight. Dry track well drawn would be right in this, only a rough chance otherwise.
6-FOUJITA SAN has been coming along OK with the three runs this time in, but probably hasnít gone quite to the level expected. Stutt Stakes run was good when wide all the wide and fought it out to the line, even pack bunched in the Flemington race. Beaten favourite 1st up over 1200M on a heavy track and disappointing and that means he is some query on a wet track. Outside barrier hasnít helped so prefer to let run.
7-MERIDIUS has been showing some very promising form and only the four career starts and two runs this time in. Definitely handles wet ground is going to be a big plus and flew home late at MV to just miss and clear second in the Guineas Prelude on a bog track which is always a strong form line. Another who is drawn wide, and probably drops back and gives them a big start here, but think he has the finishing burst to be competitive. Pretty rare to be getting $18 about a Guineas Prelude 2nd place getter, and he has beaten home the (10) last two starts and is going to start longer odds than him. If they can just find a position mid-field from this barrier he is a good rough chance in this.
8-SKYPHIOS is trying to win a Caulfield Guineas 1st up which is pretty much impossible hence the $100 odds. Sensational finishing burst to win at Flemington in July, but likely to drop well back here on the inside which may not be the best going at the end of the day and faces a massive challenge in this.
9-OSIPENKO is coming into this with only the three career starts and only one run this time in. Drawn wide and probably wants to go forward so likely to get trapped wide in this and looked to struggle in the conditions here last start. Risking.
10-AMENABLE looks a very promising type and was the one we were planning to follow into this race, but the only 3 career starts and two runs this time in is a bit of a concern. MV run was excellent when he just had to switch across runners, and it almost looked like the jockey lost track of the field last start here in appalling conditions when he finished on extremely well late. If he had settled better last start he would have been right in the finish. Last start run suggests he will handle the wet, and guess most of this field is lightly raced so we can only judge against what he has to beat, and he does look like he can beat these. Blinkers on first time. Another who a positive ride and a mid-field sit could be crucial but he does look a strong chance in this.
11-ELKINGTON ROAD is daring to win a Caulfield Guineas off only two career starts, which shows an awful lot of cheek. Strong win in small field 1st up and handled some extremely wet conditions to win 2nd up and likely to race on-speed here from a good barrier. Just looks to be coming into this tough slog a bit light against more seasoned rivals.
12-SIR BAILEY is coming into this off two runs this time in, and plugged away OK here in the storm last start. Having 7 starts means he is more seasoned than many of these, but really he has been beaten home comfortably by others going around here last two starts so looks safely held.
13-ELLIPTICAL is only at career start number 4 and ran home OK along the inside at Flemington and then solid chasing effort at Sandown. Drawn inside and likely to drop well back in a muddy slog may not be ideal or the best ground and he does look more like a Derby horse.
14-LETHAL THOUGHTS can go forward and race handy, but has been safely held both starts this time in, and would have to improve to be a factor in this.
15-THE FORTUNE TELLER is in his first preparation and fought the finish out well at Sandown last start. Well drawn and can probably take up a good position here is a big plus, as is jockey Kah on board. Probably a good rough chance for exotics.
16-DASHING has excellent wet track form and should handle the conditions today. Hard to see him being a winning chance on form, but not sure he deserves to be $151.
17-ANGRY SKIES (emerg) is coming into this at only start number 3 in the first preparation. Handles it wet and looks to be improving with racing, but this looks tough.
18-MURAMASA (emerg) is another lightly raced one at only start number 3. Well held against these last start.
Summary: Looks an extremely even race this year without a really strong stand out boom 3YO (who normally comes down from Sydney). Wet conditions make it very hard to line up the field at the moment, unclear how much rain is going to come and the speed here is a bit difficult to assess. Despite the small number of starts, we are going to push for one at odds here in the 7-MERIDIUS, flew home two starts back to just miss, and worked home here last start and proven on wet ground. Maybe just needs a positive ride here to settle mid-field or better, but he looks the type that can work home strongly down the middle of the track and $18 is excellent value for a horse coming off a Guineas Prelude 2nd in a race where the winner isnít running. Strong chance and main danger is the 2-BERKELY SQUARE and he is better drawn than many of his main rivals, and we were initially planning to back the improving 10-AMENABLE into this, but just switched to the (7) who has beaten him home last two runs, but he does look to be a live chance in this. Respect the favourite the 3-GOLDEN MILE, just not sure the odds are right. Best roughie is 5-BANK MAUR, probably better on a dry track. Punting plan is to back the 7-MERIDIUS and 10-AMENABLE straight out and really getting $18 and $14 about the Guineas Prelude place getters is good value and there is a lovely all green colours box quinella here on the (2), (7) and (10).
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 2-TROACH $8 EW
This one has been racing super consistently, handles it wet and will sit just off a pretty genuine speed in this where we are concerned those on-speed are going to knock each other out. Beaten by one jumping and leading on a leaderís track at MV last start but toughed it out and chased right to the line. Not much between her and stablemate the 10-KIN who was super unlucky here last start when was about to launch and found a dead-end, but just slightly concerned about inside barrier here in a big field for that one. Keen to back each way at around $8 and like where she is going to settle in the run, just off-speed and in clear running and will save on a trifecta below in the Wonder Bet just in case we have gone the wrong way.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-EMISSARY $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 5,6,12,13,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
Fitter for the two runs in, excellent win 1st up over 1700M and then not beaten far here last start on a heavy track when he chased hard to the line. Just look at the form out of that race, winner SMOKINí ROMANS won the Turnbull and 6th horse LUNAR FLARE won the Bart Cummings last week. Import who seems to be on the improve with a couple of local preparations and the step up in distance today to 2400M should suit. Back each way at around $10 and in a big even field plenty of value around in a box quinella with the in-form 12-SARACEN KNIGHT, the 15-HARYMYSIAN who keeps chasing hard to the line and is hard fit for this, the 6-MAKRAM who would need to return to form, but wasnít suited on the leaders track at MV, and throw in the frustrating the 13-THE GOOD FIGHT at odds who doesnít show form very often, but needs a wet track and was held up for runs two starts back at Flemington.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-MERIDIUS $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 7-MERIDIUS, 2-BERKELY SQUARE, 10-AMENABLE boxed x $6 = 200%
This one looks great value in the Caulfield Guineas as the 2nd place getter out of the Guineas Prelude and the winner from that race isnít going around here. He has chased hard last two starts and more exposed on wet tracks than most of these so the rain shouldnít be an issue. Will need a bit of a positive ride from the outside barrier, but looks the type who can ground home down the middle of the track which is where the winner should probably come from in this race. Back each way at around $20 and there is great all green colour value quinella where with the classy 2-BERKELY SQUARE and the improving 10-AMENABLE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 10-DECENT RAINE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 10-DECENT RAINE#1,3,8,9,11 x $5 = 100%
Pretty classy sprinter on her day and chased hard down the straight last time in pretty tough conditions on a Heavy (10). Proven on wet ground and has run some good races here at Caulfield, drawn perfect barrier and can sit handy (though wider may be better last race of the day) and not sure there is a great amount of speed in this race. Great turn of foot on her day and think she is over the odds here at $18 in a race where the favourite looks far, far too short. Back each way and anchor in quinella with the classy 1-TURAATH, the 8-CHASSIS who often runs races at big odds, the consistent 9-LITERARY MAGNATE, the strong finishing 11-ANOTHER AWARD and yes the short-priced favourite the 3-ZAPATEO but the quinella pays if she misses the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 2-FRANKIE PINOT $3 EW
Outstanding wet tracker who won the Wangoom on a heavy track back in May 1st up before slashing run from last in a Group 1 Goodwood over in Adelaide. The wetter the better for this one, so track may not quite come up as wet as he wants, but a strong finisher drawn wide and the inside may cut up today and favour those running on. Probably just needs some speed on, not sure they will go that fast here, but has placed 15/20 career starts so looks a good rough bet at around $16 (and probably eases in betting once the sun comes out).
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 8-BENAUD $1 WIN, $5 PLACE
Strongest Caulfield Stakes for a while, so hard to see this one winning and beating the top-liners at WFA, but the small field has resulted in upsets in the past. The short priced favourite the 7-ANAMOE looks the one to beat and suspect the 1-ZAAKI is better suited here today and may have been a run short last start. But just wonder if all the big guns may be riding tactically against each other and this one can just sit out the back and have last crack at them in the straight? Proven on wet ground and proven over the 2000M and further, and most of the classy ones either donít like it wet or are yet to be proven over the distance. So not going to be surprised if this one runs a place at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-BANKERíS CHOICE $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9 3,5,10,14,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
The short priced favourite the 5-I WISH I WIN looks hard to beat in the Toorak, but this is always a wide betting race and there are plenty of good odds on offer about good horses which are hard to refuse. This one keeps threatening to do something since slashing 1st up run in the Blamey over 1600M in March behind ZAAKI and ran on really well on a heavy track in the Doncaster. Fitter for the two runs in and should be finishing hard from an outside barrier down the middle of the track late. Worth noting that 7 of the last 10 winners of the Toorak have come through the Rupert Clarke Stakes as this one has. With so many long shots, worth a wide box quinella with the 15-UNCLE BRYN who is racing extremely well and probably better ridden a little colder to finish off late, the 14-CHARACTER who had no luck getting a run last start and has good wet track form and the old timer 3-DALASAN who was strongest late in the Rupert Clarke.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 4-DESERT ICON at around $6
Tough day to find a horse worth laying with good odds about a lot of horses and classy short-priced favourites. This one is a good front running stayer but had the plus of the leadersí track at MV last start and just think he is better over the 2000M than the tough staying 2400M here and is likely to get outstayed in this.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a ticket to a fancy Caulfield marquee.
TRIFECTA: Race 3: 2,10 / 2,6,9,10,14 / 2,3,4,6,9,10,14,15 x $5 = 10.41%
This looks a great wide trifecta race with one of the two blue horses the 2-TROACH and 10-KIN likely to win and in a big field of 3YO fillies anything can often place, so letís go for roughies like 6-MUMBAI JEWEL, 9-WEE NESSY, 14-LA DANSEUSSE and hope for a dividend.
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,7 / 1,2,3,4,7,10 / 3,5,10,14,15 / 1,3,8,10 x $20 = 8.33%
Basically you need to pick your favourite two horses in the first leg Caulfield Stakes (we are going with 7-ANAMOE, 1-ZAAKI) and then go wide in an open Caulfield Guineas and hope the short priced favourites in the last two legs get beaten. Absolute stack of value around even if one goes under, so worth a play $20 to see what happens.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. SCENIC HERITAGE TOUR
Race 2: 7-JIMMY THE BEAR, 12-CARDINAL GEM, 2-OLD FLAME
Race 3: 2-TROACH, 10-KIN, 6-MUMBAI JEWEL
Race 4: 2-FRANKIE PINOT, 7-GRAVINA, 12-CURRAN
Race 5: 5-EMISSARY, 15-HARMYSIAN, 6-MAKRAM
Race 6: 1-PAULELE, 2-INGRATIATING, 4-ZOUSTYLE
Race 7: 7-ANAMOE, 1-ZAAKI, 8-BENAUD
Race 8: 7-MERIDIUS, 2-BERKELY SQUARE, 10-AMENABLE
Race 9: 5-I WISH I WIN, 10-BANKERíS CHOICE, 15-UNCLE BRYN
Race 10: 10-DECENT RAINE, 1-TURAATH, 8-CHASSIS