Mild weather and very windy coming into the weekend and the big question is if we will get an on-speed Caulfield Guineas Day as we often do. Those on-speed tracks normally occur with warm weather and firm tracks and not quite sure the weather forecast for the weekend looks sunny enough, but this wind is going to have some impact and this track may come up quite firm. As always be prepared to adjust and watch out for any on-speed bias and see what impact the wind has. Caulfield has raced extremely well last few months and they have got off the rails more often than not so every horse should have its chance.
Once we can work out the racing pattern, this is always a great day for some confident bets. The form is well exposed now so we can line these up. Doubling up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN Race 7: 3-EVAPORATE $11 WIN
QUINELLA Race 7: 3-EVAPORATE#1,4,6,7 x $10 = 250%
This one kicked off spring with a disaster run when he missed the jump and was badly held up for runs in the Lawrence Stakes. Super tough win last start at Sandown off a freshen-up when he made a dashing mid-race move and just held on late and sure to be plenty of improvement to come off that run. Probably should have just about won the Caulfield Guineas this day last year when ridden too quietly on an on-speed track and has been thrown in the deep end again and again and deserves a feature Group 1 win. Well drawn, will go forward and sit handy and we haven’t seen the best of this one yet – he is an extremely good horse. Back straight out at a generous $6 and anchor in a quinella with the 4-FEROCE who loves dry tracks on-speed, the fit and in-form 6-TRANSATLANTIC, the other on-speed horse the 7-LAZZURA and the 1-DESERT LIGHTNING who seems crazy odds just because he is top weight.
BEST EACH WAY Race 2: 2-VEIN GIRL $7 EW
Big field of sprinting 3YO fillies and we have plenty coming off maiden wins here and stepping up in class substantially, but they only get 1kg off those who have been racing at Group level, including this one. Loved her last run, caught wide on a fast speed on a MV leaders track and kicked in the straight and fought on well. She will do the same today, jump and run and give herself every chance and probably has plenty of improvement to come. There wasn’t much between her and the short priced favourite the (5) last start, and she will be well ahead of that one coming to the turn. Trials were good and this looks an ideal race. Back each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY Race 3: 11-TARAMANSOUR $7 EW
QUINELLA Race 3: 11-TARAMANSOUR #1,5,8,10 x $8 = 200%
Under-rated stayer who is running into form this time in. He needs dry tracks and a few runs in and getting out to distance to show best, and he was unlucky in Sydney last start stuck out the back of the field trying to weave runs and finished off really strongly once into the clear. Placed 6/10 over the 2400M distance and comes in at the bottom of the weights here. Pretty consistent once he strikes form and some of these have had plenty of chances or don’t run out a strong 2400M. Back each-way at around $9 and anchor in a quinella with the 10-SCARY who has ability and is due for a staying win, the frustrating 8-BRAYDEN STAR who ran well in this race last year, the 1-SMOKIN’ ROMANS as the value runner leading and the last start winner 5-WHISKY ON THE HILL.
BEST EACH WAY Race 9: 8-ARABIAN SUMMER $5 EW
QUINELLA Race 9: 8-ARABIAN SUMMER, 1-GIGA KICK, 2-GOLDEN BOOM boxed x $6 = 200%
We are keen to stick with this one this spring after a great first-up run in the Moir and she showed a heap of potential in the Autumn with a great 5th here in the Oakleigh Plate caught up on a furious speed in a back-markers race. Given a freshen-up and a solid jump out win and should jump and sit handy here – maybe just a slight query on a very firm track. Back each-way at around $8 and box up a quinella with the classy 1-GIGA KICK who looks ready to do something first-up in this field and the consistent 2-GOLDEN BOOM who has drawn wide barriers last two starts and not been beaten far at all, gets a nice barrier today and likely to lead.
BEST ROUGH Race 1: 7-NATION’S CALL $3 EW
Lets kick off with a little each way bit in an open first race. This has drawn wide but will likely run and go forward and was unlucky first-up here last start when in the finish and couldn’t get clear running late. Jumping to the front might prove hard to run down with improvement from last start at around $10.
BEST ROUGH Race 8: 10-SPACE RIDER $3 EW
QUINELLA Race 8: 5,8,9,10,14 boxed x $10 = 100%
Our best roughie in an open Caulfield Guineas is at around $35 and he ticks quite a few boxes as being a winner this time in and probably the best run out of the Guineas Prelude where he missed the start and was hitting the line well late. Speed on here should suit a strong finisher. Back each-way and box up a value quinella with the top pick 8-NAVY PILOT, the classy Sydney runner 9-AUTUMN BOY, the under-rated 5-WEST OF SWINDON of a key form race win, and the 14-PLANET RED who ticks at lot for the form lines for a Caulfield Guineas winner.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 5-SEPALS at around $3
Stunning win last start here off a fantastic ride, but there were many unlucky runs behind him and thought she was stopping on the line over 1400M. Out to a feature 1600M mile trip today for the first time and that’s got to be some query and prefer to back the proven milers in these sort of races. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a 5% first home buyer deposit.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 11-TARAMANSOUR
PLACE Race 4: 1-RUMBLED AGAIN
PLACE Race 7: 3-EVAPORATE
PLACE Race 9: 2-GOLDEN BOOM
Most of these should be around the finish and we are relying on the Race 4: 1-RUMBLED AGAIN to add some value to this, she doesn’t like being drawn inside runners but is racing extremely well and strikes a weaker field here so seems good value as long as jockey can get into the right spot. Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 3,4,6 / 5,8,9,10,14,15 / 1,2,8 / 1,6,8 x $20 = 12.3%
Seems a pretty straight forward quaddie through the selections but need to go wide and try and find some value in the feature Caulfield Guineas.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8 CAULFIELD GUINEAS 1600M GROUP 1
We have a capacity field with emergencies and a very even Caulfield Guineas this year and none of these have really been standing out, in fact most of them have been rather uninspiring in their lead up form. Plenty of value here - IF we can find the winner. Normally the Guineas Prelude and the Golden Rose are the key lead up races, along with the Bill Stutt Stakes so we need to line up which is the best form line and what race the winner will come from.
Some interesting stats
- the only horse to finish further back than 5th in their lead up run and win in the last 30 years was ECONSUL in 2004 (6th), and SUPER SETH in 2019 is the only horse to finish 5th in their lead-up run. So that means pretty much all winners in that time have finished Top 4 in their lead-up run.
- inside barriers are extremely important in a big field, in the last 30 years barrier 1 has won an astounding 6 times and barriers 5 or lower an impressive 18 times
- no horses have won first-up or second-up and only 5 horses in the last 30 years have won off two runs in the lead-in preparation.
The speed here should be pretty solid, there are plenty of horses who can go forward. The 6-VEGA FOR LUCK is the likely leader from the 18-REGAL AWARD (emerg), the 3-VINROCK and 5-WEST OF SWINDON coming across from outside barriers (can probably come across together), and the 15-ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER, 16-OBSERVER also likely to be forward. Which will set the race up nicely for something from an inside barrier sitting just behind these like the 8-NAVY PILOT and 9-AUTUMN BOY and track pattern should allow them to run on from back in the field.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-RIVELLINO was right in the thick of the feature 2YO races in Sydney over Autumn, but has only been fair in three runs back this spring. Hasn’t really been competitive in a finish this time in and historical form lines suggest that is going to be an issue here. Jockey Williams is a plus as is an inside barrier, likely to drop back inside runners with speed on and might need some luck getting a clear run. Would probably want to see a solid market move to get interested. Passing.
2-WODETON is the current favourite and was the boom 2YO who continued to start favourite and even money and not win last preparation, but at least he was right in the finish each time. Form is better than most of these and seems to be racing more consistently in harder races than his rivals here. Speed on here will suit a strong finisher and drawn middle is probably a plus to make a clear late run at them. Seems the obvious pick on form, but it is not like he is winning impressively and wary he does have a tendency to start favourite and not win. Will he run a strong 1600M in a big field with a solid temp? Seems poor value in a big field when his form is just fair. Strong chance, but not sure we would want to back him at these odds in such a big and even field.
3-VINROCK had a stand-out first preparation, on-speed and undefeated and then was a little underwhelming first-up this spring when appeared to need the run and be looking for further, before bouncing back to form at Flemington on-speed where he had the race won a long way out. Short-priced favourite at MV, missed the start, back of the field against normal racing pattern and on a leaders track so that was a total forgive run and he worked home OK once into the clear. Big question mark here is the wide barrier, he does seem a dry track, jump and run control the tempo on-speed horse and will have to work early here and there does seem to be a fair bit of speed in this. But also has the class to win. Totally undecided what to do with this one. Chance with reservations.
4-NEPOTISM is proven over the distance and was super impressive in 2YO wins when he dropped back and ran over the top of them late. Only the two runs in and hasn’t looked like getting into the finish and has been well beaten. He is better than that, and suited into a strongly run 1600M where horses can run on from well back. Drawn wide not an issue for this one as he drops back anyway. Odds of $11 seem poor value for a horse with basically no form this time in. Place chance.
5-WEST OF SWINDON might be flying under the radar a bit this spring and has been racing extremely well. Was caught wide two starts back at Flemington and fought the race out well to the line behind the (3) and then jumped and led on an on-speed MV track to win one of the key lead-up races. Has beaten many of his rivals here last start. Looks to run a strong mile too and can race handy. Main issue is the wide barrier and plenty of speed on here is going to make it pretty tricky and is going to need a first-class ride from the jockey as he is pretty likely to have to work early and get caught wide on-speed here. Drawn a barrier this one probably rates on top, so definitely keep this one safe. Chance.
6-VEGA FOR LUCK is a NZ import with a pretty low profile who has been competitive enough in each start this preparation and seems to be improving with each run and up in distance. Jumped to the lead and controlled the speed in a messy Guineas Prelude and had them chasing a long way out and he was probably a bit unlucky to be run down late – they really struggled to get to him. Drawn well and will go forward here again, but likely to be a fair bit of pressure up front here today. Normally Guineas Prelude place getters are a good form reference, but it’s just a bit hard to get enthused about the Caulfield Guineas Prelude form this year and he is unlikely to get the same soft on-speed control as last time. Passing.
7-HIGHVOL kicked off his career with two tough Flemington 1400M wins earlier this year, but he hasn’t really got into a finish this spring in three starts so far. Was probably the best of the runners on in the Bill Stutt Stakes, leaders track, and made good ground out wide but he was still beaten a long way. Drawn outside here and likely to drop well back in this field which is going to be a tough ask. Likely to get the speed on to suit, but just not sure his form is good enough at the moment to win this. No.
8-NAVY PILOT has had more preparations and race experience than most of these and showed he was competitive over these distances over the QLD winter. Looks to have come back even better this spring, first-up run was super impressive down the straight when just missed and then workman like win last start at Sandown giving weight to most of his rivals when he wanted to win and chased hard. Looks to have plenty of upside and the 1600M and the speed on here should suit. Likely to drop back in the run, but draws a crucial inside barrier and comes into this with winning form – just not in the key lead-up races. Only the two runs in and an 1100M/1400M preparation coming into a feature 1600M race is always a bit of query. But just seems to be going better than many of these. Strong chance.
9-AUTUMN BOY has drawn the magical barrier 1 and that straight away puts him in as a chance in this. Chased really hard behind an all the way leader first-up, and then back and wide all the way last start when made little ground on the leader. Well in the market here suggests there are forgives for the poor last start effort. He is going to get a pretty good run here sitting behind a solid tempo from an inside barrier and that first-up run was really pretty good. Another who doesn’t seem to represent much betting value off a poor run, but can’t really rule out against these either. Chance.
10-SPACE RIDER has been thereabouts in the spring lead-up races. Perfect behind speed rails sit at MV for nice win 1st up when extending to the line, and then was slow to begin in the slowly run Guineas Prelude and probably hit the line best in an even field - and maybe the best run from that race. Speed on here should suit and looks to be a strong finisher and he hasn’t drawn as bad as many of his main rivals. Definitely consider this one – seems a really good rough chance in an even field this year. Rough.
11-PRESTIGE OLE showed a fair bit of potential in first preparation and is probably building up to something this spring, but doesn’t look to be going well enough for a Group 1 feature at the moment. Poked through the field and hit the line well first-up at Flemington when probably needed the fitness run and then was in the prime on fence behind the leader position at MV when did nothing and dropped out (but no issues reported?). He is better than that and gets a key inside barrier here so expect an improved run today, but he has been well beaten by many of these last two starts and not going well enough at the moment. No.
12-HILLIER is more seasoned than many of these and has had a pretty solid preparation for a tough 1600M feature. Normally lobs on-speed and just whacks away, but faces a task here from an outside barrier going forward. Been racing against most of these and thereabouts, but being well held, so hard to have here. No.
13-STAY COSMIC is another who had a great first preparation but hasn’t quite gone up to the next level this spring. Hugged the rails to run on well first-up at MV and then not suited by the slow tempo in the Guineas Prelude, but really had every chance there and he was fairly plain. Coming into this off two runs in is not ideal, drawn wide and likely to drop back and has gone from a $3.40 in the Guineas Prelude to a rank outsider in the Guineas so punters have totally deserted this one. Passing.
14-PLANET RED is another who has been showing some promise this spring, but needs to go up another level here. Didn’t seem to handle the turn at MV when he was making good ground late and then just whacked away when well supported in the Guineas Prelude. Three runs in is plus, Guineas Prelude place getter is a plus, speed on and strong finisher is a plus and good barrier is a very big plus here. Goes in as a chance just on those factors alone – many of his rivals have a long list of negatives Chance.
15-ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER is trying to win a feature Group 1 1600M race in his first preparation and only start number 3 which is an extremely difficult task. Tough win first-up and then sat on-speed and fought the race out right to the line at MV. Another drawn out who likes to go forward and likely to be caught wide or used up early. Showing a heap of promise and that Bill Stutt run was really good and probably the best run out of that race so does tick quite a few boxes here in terms of form. Doubt many if any have won this race at start #3 and that’s a big query but would keep this one in the roughies list as he does seem to be going pretty well. Rough.
16-OBSERVER is trying to win this race second-up, something no horse in the last 30 years has been able to do (not sure how many have even tried?). Thrashed them in classy Sandown win back in June and then really stretched out when running second last start. Well drawn and another who is likely to go forward. Creates some interest as a new form line against the rest of the even bunch and may get some support today – but no form in the key lead-up races and has established historical form patterns against him here. Risking.
17-CENTU CAVADDI (emerg) had an astounding 7 jump outs before his first race start, but patience has paid off and he has been highly competitive in his two career starts to date. Came from last, last start at Sandown and was doing a few things wrong but he was really strong to the line. Sure to be plenty of improvement to come from that, but big ask to win a feature Group 1 at third career start. Meets the (8) 3kgs off from last run. Needs an unlikely scratching to get into the field. Well drawn is a big plus and seems to be one on the way up so place chance if he gets into this field. Place. SCRATCHED
18-REGAL AWARD (emerg) is one we would absolutely love to make the field but it’s looking unlikely at this stage. Stand-out win at Sandown two starts back when jumped handy off a fast tempo and kicked clear in the straight for a very impressive win in fast time. Then total disaster last start with claiming apprentice on-board, missed the start, ended up at the back of the field instead of on-speed and went to run into the race at a crucial stage and got baulked for a run. Does tend to over-race and do a few things wrong so would need to settle today to be a chance at the top level. Stable and jockey are firing and drawn a perfect barrier to go forward today, although there does seem to be a bit of speed here. Strong chance, but main issue is getting into the field. SCRATCHED
Summary:
This is one of the toughest Caulfield Guineas we have done for the form for and nothing is really jumping out of the form guide at us. From the lead-up races, the 9-AUTUMN BOY is probably the best of the Sydney form, the 10-SPACE RIDER the best from the Guineas Prelude and the 15-ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER probably the best out of the Bill Stutt – but hard to get enthused by the form out of any of these races. Particularly for the Sydney horses who seem poor value for being well beaten in their lead up runs. Going through the check list at the start of the preview there are very few runners to meet the criteria, in fact the 14-PLANET RED is about the only runner to tick all the boxes so maybe he is a roughie to throw in here.
The one we would really like to back here is the 18-REGAL AWARD (emerg) who is extremely unlikely to get a start, but would be a live chance at great odds if he got into the field. Senior jockey back on-board, jumping and sitting handy and the last start was just a mess. Follow up on him in whatever he starts in next if he doesn’t get a run this time. Despite not coming through a traditional form line the 8-NAVY PILOT has winning form this time in, a good barrier, suited by the speed on and really liked that first-up Flemington run and seems to have fewer convictions than most of these. Would have been really confident if he had one more run in, but seems the top pick in a pretty even bunch. The roughie to watch out for is the 10-SPACE RIDER, think he was the best run out of the Guineas Prelude, he is in winning form this time in and strong finisher suited by the speed on. The 9-AUTUMN BOY best of the Sydney runners, inside barrier and speed to suit and first-up run was excellent. Outside of these considering the 5-WEST OF SWINDON who is racing well and just needs to get across from an outside barrier and the box-ticker the 14-PLANET RED. Will probably back the top pick straight out, have something each-way on the roughie and box up a quinella in what might be a pretty bunched finish this year.
Race 1: 7-NATION’S CALL, 10-OVERACTIVE, 14-ORAQUA
Race 2: 2-VEIN GIRL, 5-POINT BARROW, 11-SASSY FOR SURE
Race 3: 11-TARAMANSOUR, 10-SCARY, 8-BRAYDEN STAR
Race 4: 6-SEA WHAT I SEE, 2-JENNILALA, 1-RUMBLED AGAIN
Race 5: 3-ZOU SENSATION, 8-KING ZEPHYR, 2-BENAGIL
Race 6: 2-BUCKAROO, 5-TREASURETHE MOMENT, 4-GLOBE
Race 7: 3-EVAPORATE, 4-FEROCE, 6-TRANSATLANTIC
Race 8: 8-NAVY PILOT, 10-SPACE RIDER, 9-AUTUMN BOY
Race 9: 8-ARABIAN SUMMER, 1-GIGA KICK, 2-GOLDEN BOOM
Race 10: 6-PRARIE FLOWER, 1-AMEENA, 8-EXTRATWO
