|CAULFIELD: COONGY CUP - WEDNESDAY 18th OCTOBER 2023|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 12M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Glorious sunny weather for the mid-week Caulfield Cup Carnival meeting and there isn’t much left here at all, with the Thousand Guineas, Blue Sapphire and 1600M mares race all ransacked to prop up other race days. Which is a shame as it was a great casual low key race day normally. But that does mean that the trusty old Coongy Handicap finally becomes the feature race of the day!
The rail goes out a whopping 12M here so be very cautious of the racing pattern, on a firm track and sunny day you would think there will be a strong on-speed advantage and really wouldn’t want to be on those dropping back along the inside as they won’t get clear runs. We have pretty even fields today so no serious punting, but there are lots of nice $8 each way chances to keep you entertained.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). No feature race form today as even the Coongy Handicap isn’t worth the words.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 11-MURAMASA $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 11-MURAMASA#4,6,8,10 x $2 = 50%
Impressive first-up win when pounced in the straight and worth remembering this one led nearly all the way in the Caulfield Classic here last year and was only just grabbed on the line by a short priced favourite. Didn’t show his best form over the autumn, but last start win may mean he is back to his best this time in. Likely to go forward here in a field of drop back stayers and should control the race. Back each way at around $6 and there are some nice rough chances in this race in the 4-STEINEM with a class edge, the 6-EARLSWOOD who chased hard first-up, the 8-AFFAIRE A SUIVRE rolling on-speed and the consistent 10-ARRAN BAY. The seasoned punter would also know you should always box these up in a trifecta as well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-TYCOON BEC $4 EW
Good career stats and extraordinary first-up run when went wide and aggressively early on the turn at Sandown and was still fighting out the finish at the end of the race. Drawn barrier 1 here and assume jockey Hefel goes forward and no pressure at all up front here and she should stick on pretty well at around $12. Bit under-rated and often runs well at good odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 13-THE MARG FACTOR $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 13-THE MARG FACTOR#2,11,16 x $3 = 100%
Another fit and in form leader, so let’s hope we have the racing pattern correct today! Another who looks to get a soft lead and might be hard to run down at around $6, anchor in the quinella with the 2-DEEKAY off a good win, the 11-POCKET CHANGE who is the value runner here suited up in distance and the last start unlucky 16-RUSSIAN METEOR.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 13-DASHING $4 EW
Ultra-consistent type who was racing extremely well before the break and came back really well to lunge and just miss first-up at Sandown. Jockey Meech on board and almost certainly goes forward here and was always in the finish last preparation. Looks a very winnable race and looks to get the run of the race just on the speed here at $7.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 8-SUNDAY BUZZ $1.50 EW
Just a little interest bet here. Small staying field and the short priced favourite the 7-INSULATION looks the one to beat, but this one should lead easily with the 3kg apprentice on board and might stick on OK if we get a leaders track. Last start run was probably better than it looked, was 2nd up and up sharply in distance and led and the track was favouring swoopers, so expect a better run today at around $25.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 10-SHALAMAN $2.50 EW
Pretty open sprint race and this one’s best runs have been jumping and leading and hoping they do the same here today from an inside barrier. There is a bit of pressure up front here, so will need to kick up and hold the rails, and might run a race today and probably doesn’t deserve to be second longest in this field at around $26.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 7-SUBSTANTIAL at around $5
Pretty tough day to find a lay bet, but this one is an import first up at second Australian preparation and just suspect a firm track and dropping back first-up against some fit in-form on-speed horses will be a challenge.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to pay for a Grand Pavilion.
TRIFECTA: Race 5: 6-TYCOON BEC, 7-SHOCK’EM OVA, 10-FIRST LIGHT boxed x $5 = 83%
We have been hitting these box trifectas in the selections this spring, so probably time we tried one here. The short priced favourite the 7-SHOCK’EM OVA looks hard to beat, but will drop well back and that may not be the racing pattern, and expecting the two double figure odds chances the 6-TYCOON BEC, 10-FIRST LIGHT to go forward here and may cause an upset with the favourite running on too late into the finish.
Races 5,6,7,8: 2,4,6,7,10/ 1,2,3,10,17 /2,11,13 / 13,14 x $20 = 13.33%
This is a super open quaddie with lots of even fields and it’s a bit hard to know which leg to go narrow in. First leg looks a little tricky so maybe go wide there (and if we get it right we have the box trifecta anyway), plenty of chances in the second so go wide for value, selections should see us home in the third leg, and come home on the main two chances in the last leg the 13-DASHING, 14-WATADEEL.
Race 1: 4-MOJAVE DESERT, 8-ERSA, 7-SUBRISING
Race 2: 11-MURAMASA, 10-ARRAN BAY, 4-STEINEM
Race 3: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 4: 7-INSULATION, 8-SUNDAY BUZZ, 2-LONG ARM
Race 5: 6-TYCOON BEC, 7-SHOCK’EM OVA, 10-FIRST LIGHT
Race 6: 10-SHALAMAN, 2-DANCING ALONE, 17-LADY DI DI
Race 7: 13-THE MARG FACTOR, 11-POCKET CHANGE, 2-DEEKAY
Race 8: 13-DASHING, 14-WATADEEL, 8-FARETTI