Sunny weather for the mid-week meeting at Caulfield which has been stripped of all its feature races except for the time-honoured Coongy Handicap. We have still come up with pretty decent fields though and there is plenty of size to these fields and likely to be a fair bit of value. Racing pattern tended towards those on-speed on Caulfield Guineas Day, but the rail goes out 12M today so we are on totally different ground for racing. They have done plenty of trackwork down the outside rail over the last week so assuming that on-speed will be the place to be today.
We are coming off a nice quinella driven profit on Caulfield Guineas Day and the feature race form preview was right around the money. There are plenty of winning chances in these fields which is going to make it a pretty difficult punting day, but there is also plenty of each-way value to be found.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). As much as we love the Coongy, there is no feature form preview for today.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 3-REGAL AWARD
EARLY QUAD Race 1,2,3,4: 2,4,7,8,9 / 3 / 5,7,9,12 / 2,6,7,8 x $8 = 10%
We were actually keen to back this one in the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday, where he was an emergency and didn’t get a run, but to be fair he probably wouldn’t have won the way the race was run anyway. Slashing on-speed win at Sandown two starts back and then total disaster run with apprentice on board last start, missed the start, out the back of the field, got baulked when running into the race and still not beaten far. Should jump and lead here with senior jockey on board and be very hard to beat – he can over race though and there are a lot of impressive up and comers in this race so a few words of caution. Odds of $3 is about as low as we like to go, so let’s do something a bit different and instead lets anchor him in an Early Quad and hope some of the early favourites get beaten.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-SNEAKY SUNRISE $4 EW
Super consistent type who was competitive at listed and group level last time in and fought out the finish strongly last start down the long Sandown straight when first-up. Can go forward here from a good barrier and should have plenty of improvement to come and he is normally in the finish so looks a nice each-way bet at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 9-SO RISQUE $4 EW, QUINELLA 9-SO RISQUE#5,7,13 x $3 = 100%
Really surprised about the odds on this one, he is a good on-speed 1400M horse when right and has great distance stats. Fitter for the two runs in, and he chased a smart one last start and clearly beat the rest of the field. Likely to lob on-speed here again and get every chance at around $10. Anchor in a quinella with the strong finishing favourite the 5-SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET who will be hard to beat, the dry track on-speed 13-LE FERRARI who looks to be running into form and roughie 7-MY BROTHERS KEEPER who can pull out a run when fresh.
QUINELLA Race 5: 4,7,8,11 boxed x $6 = 100%
Keen on the 4-DON’T HOPE SO here who is fit and racing well and most importantly he is normally a leader and likely to get to the rails here. Was competitive in a harder race over in Adelaide last start and he probably only just gets the 1100M here but some of the other speed has come out of the race and there are quite a few dedicated backmarkers in this. Box in a quinella with the talented 11-SWEETHEARTED who might go well fresh running on late, the 8-MERRIGOLD well drawn with an apprentice claim and the long-shot 7-PERILIOUS FIGHTER who is a strong finisher with class when right and seems stupid odds at $41, but will need them to be able to run on.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 4-FERAGO $2 EW
One of our favourites and a super tough staying type who normally prefers a wet track, but hopefully it won’t be too firm here for the first race. Trick here is that many of these are not proven over the 2400M, whereas he is (placed 11/18) and has been racing back into form recently. Will need a good ride as there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed here, but he can outstay these and his last start run in a slowly run Mornington Cup was actually pretty good. Rough at $34.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 15-CADMUS $4 EW
This one is building up to a win this time in and two of his three starts this time in have been great, running on strongly at the end of his races. Normally take a few runs in each time to find his best and he should be ready to do that today. He does drop back, but this is one race with good speed here and looks nicely weighted at the bottom of the weights here. Rough at around $12 in a very even field.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 2-CENTU CAVADDI at around $2.30
Shortest priced favourite of the day and this one is showing a bit of potential, but will drop back here in a small field around Caulfield rail out 12M and just about all of these have come off impressive last start maiden wins and also show potential. May go on and win, just don’t think the odds are worth the risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a share in a good racehorse.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 7-SNEAKY SUNRISE
PLACE Race 6: 2-RISE TO IT
PLACE Race 7: 15-CADMUS
PLACE Race 8: 9-SO RISQUE
We are also pretty keen on the Race 6: 2-RISE TO IT who loves leading and 2000M and dry track but we can’t squeeze another each way bet in today, so let’s take him in place multi. Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8: 2,3,4,7,8,11,14 / 2,7 / 7,11,15 / 5,8,13 x $20 = 15.8%
First leg is wide open, but can narrow down the second leg to just the 2-RISE TO IT, 7-ZAMBARDO and still a bit of value in just the selections in the last two legs.
Race 1: 7-LITZDEEL, 4-FERAGO, 2-GOLDEN CENTURY
Race 2: 3-REGAL AWARD, 1-TAGLINE, 6-MATERAZZI
Race 3: 7-SNEAKY SUNRISE, 5-SHADAVAR, 12-SURFIN’ BIRD
Race 4: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 5: 4-DON’T HOPE SO, 11-SWEETHEARTED, 8-MERRIGOLD
Race 6: 2-RISE TO IT, 7-ZAMBARDO, 5-PRINCE ERIC
Race 7: 11-QUIETNESS, 15-CADMUS, 7-STATUARIO
Race 8: 9-SO RISQUE, 5-SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET, 13-LE FERRARI
