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| MOONEE VALLEY : COX PLATE - 25th Oct 2008 |
| Track: DEAD (4) - Weather: LOVELY AGAIN - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Lovely sunny weather in Melbourne heading towards the weekend, so despite the legendary cushioning of the MV track, this track should come up firm. Supposed to get quite hot on Sat, so for those going to the track enjoy mingling and mixing sweat with 50,000 other race goers in the cosy surrounds of MV. Yummy. Rail goes back to TRUE, and when that happens it can be hard to lead around the turn and hang on. Look for those swinging out and swooping around the turn on the camber. Firm track so avoid those who need some give in the ground. Although just checked the website Fri morning and track is currently a Dead (5), so obviously they have dumped a stack of water on it as they know they are heading towards a hot, dry day. First half of the program does look a bit dodgy as far as betting goes, but last 4 races all look excellent betting races, so let’s double the stake this week, mainly cause we want to have a decent crack at this quadrella which should pay OK. RESULTS : Track does come up quite firm. Even racing, though most of the winners did race on pace, but some of that might have been tempo related. Those finishing on got into the finish, but just couldn't quite get up. Ordinary day out for the tips with just the obvious selections. BEST BET : Race 10: 8-PRINCESS MARIZZA $20 WIN 3rd W=$3.40 Fitter for 3 runs in, which have all been good. Had the run over the 1600M, unlucky not to get bob in photo finish when finishing on well last start. Won on this day last year, drawn out a little and strong finisher, and enough pace here and they should be swooping so looks extremely well suited. RESULTS : Blanket finish and was diving on the line, but couldn't quite get there. QUINELLA : Race 5: 12-BEL MER, 9-CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD x $10 2nd 12-BEL MER W=$6.00 QUINELLA : Race 5: 12-BEL MER, 3-COCINERO x $10 2nd 12-BEL MER W=$6.00 12-BEL MER has been racing very well, solid run last start when ran on well to just miss and looks well suited here from nice barrier to sit just behind the speed in this. Should be plenty of value in the quinella, as the ones we see as the two main dangers are both at nice odds. RESULTS : BEL MER run her usual honest race. Keep following 9-CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD who kept going forward to take the lead when could have taken a sit, and 3-COCINERO who was finishing on well. BEST EACH WAY : Race 7: 4-CEFALU $10 EW SCR $20 Damm hard to run down when he goes to the lead, and you will get your money’s worth at least as he runs along in the front. Fitter now he has had the 2400M run, and was coming back again last start – he just keeps going. Loves MV, should bowl then along here and might just out stay them. BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 5-MASTER O'REILLY $5 EW Have to have something on your roughie to pick in the Cox Plate. Will be running on and good each way bet at odds. RESULTS : Drops back, no speed and no initiative from the jockey so never a factor. FLEXI QUADRELLA : Races 7,8,9,10 2,3,4(scr),6 / 3,5,7,8,9 / 6,8,9,11,14 / 4,8 x $25 = 12.5% 1st 6-GALLOPIN W=$6.70, 2nd 3-BAUGHURST W=$4.40, 3rd 2-ICE CHARIOT W=$4.40 / 2nd 3-ZIPPING W=$6.00 / 1st 6-SEA BATTLE W=$6.10 / 3rd 8-PRINCESS MARIZZA 3rd W=$3.40 Take the 4 main chances in the first leg, the MV Cup, and dare we say it, you should be safe. Go a little wide in the Cox Plate and you might get a result, 3rd leg could be the trick leg – they will go very fast and you might find something down the bottom of the weights finishes over the top of them at odds – so load up those as many of those you can afford. Come home on the two top picks in the last and hope the Best Bet does it for us anyways. Should be a value quadrella, so worth a stab. RESULTS: Thereabouts - first leg very safe when the 3 runners run the trifecta, rest thereabouts, but wouldn't have been that much value in our selections anyway. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more ALL UP PLACE BET x $2.50 = $5 Race 1: 10-IMASHADOW 3rd W=$10.20, P=$3.10 Race 5: 9-CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD Race 8: 5-MASTER O'REILLY , 8-C'EST LA GUERRE Race 9: 11-O’REILLY’S CLOCK Think we have spotted some value place getters throughout the day, so let’s join them all up in an All Up Place bet. RESULTS : Got off to a great start, but didn't keep going. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $20 NET : $-80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-MRS WATERS, 9-MAXISUN, 10-IMASHADOW Race 2: EARLY 2YOS. SIT THEM OUT Race 3: 3-CHARZOO, 6-RETURNTOSENDER, 7-BAUBLE Race 4: 10-MILLBANK, 7-NAKU PENDA, 9-STANTON Race 5: 12-BEL MER, 9-CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD, 3-COCINERO Race 6: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 3-SOUSA, 2-CARNERO Race 7: 4-CEFALU, 3-BAUGHURST, 2-ICE CHARIOT Race 8: 5-MASTER O'REILLY, 9-PRINCESS COUP, 3-ZIPPING Race 9: 8-ROCKWOOD, 6-SEA BATTLE, 11-O’REILLY’S CLOCK Race 10: 8-PRINCESS MARIZZA, 4-DANE JULIA, 10-GAME SERENA |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MRS WATERS 9-MAXISUN 10-IMASHADOW 3rd W=$10.20 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-CHARZOO SCR 6-RETURNTOSENDER 7-BAUBLE 1st W=$5.00 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-MILLBANK 1st W=$2.90 7-NAKU PENDA 9-STANTON SCR |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-BEL MER 2nd W=$6.00 9-CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD 3-COCINERO |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$1.50 3-SOUSA 2-CARNERO |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-CEFALU SCR 3-BAUGHURST 2nd W=$4.40 2-ICE CHARIOT 3rd W=$4.40 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MASTER O'REILLY 9-PRINCESS COUP 3-ZIPPING 2nd W=$6.00 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-ROCKWOOD 6-SEA BATTLE 1st W=$6.10 11-O’REILLY’S CLOCK |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-PRINCESS MARIZZA 3rd W=$3.40 4-DANE JULIA 10-GAME SERENA |
| RACE 8: COX PLATE - FREE TO GOOD HOME 2040M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 5-MASTER O'REILLY 9-PRINCESS COUP 3-ZIPPING 2nd W=$6.00 |
| Others: 7,8 Pace: GENUINE TO FAST Leaders : 2-MALDIVIAN, 4-THESEO Handy : 6-RAHEEB, 7-ALAMOSA, 10-GALLANT TESS , 11-ZARITA Back : 1-SIRMIONE, 3-ZIPPING, 5-MASTER O'REILLY, 8-C'EST LA GUERRE, 9-PRINCESS COUP, 12-SAMANTHA MISS Chances: 3-ZIPPING is one we have always had a lot of time for, and think is vastly under rated, so good to see him having a crack at a major title. Better known for his staying form – MV Cup winner, 2 x 4ths in Melbourne Cups, but think he is better as a sit, sprint WFA 2000M horse – his runs in the Turnbull over the years have been excellent and often unlucky. Just the 2 runs going into this, but made good ground here 1st up, then right in the finish yet again in the Turnbull – and meets the (5) 1.5 kgs better off from that race. Should be fitter and at peak going into this, and meets a substandard field here, so might be his chance to pinch a big one. Ridden cold he has one of the best finishing bursts around – might just need to be at Flem to produce it though and not sure MV is really his track (despite the Cup win – he raced on pace that day). Did run in this race last year with pretty similar form and didn’t do that much. Just wonder if from a nice barrier they might ride him more forward today ?. Goes in as a definite winning chance though, just wants them to run along in this. 2nd W=$6.00 5-MASTER O'REILLY is actually going along OK. Fitter for the 3 runs in, made some ground 1st up, come home hard and got right into the finish 2nd up (meets the (3) worse on weights from that run), and didn’t think the Caulfield Cup run was that bad. He was widest into the straight last week, was making ground OK – to be honest think he went into that race one run short – very hard to win a Caulfield Cup off only 2 runs in. Possibility that he is just a handicapper – his Caulfield Cup win last year was with no weight. But he is a genuine 2000M + horse – and very few in this field are 2000M horses. He hasn’t been beaten far last 2 runs, is fitter, has improvement in him and doesn’t meet a high grade WFA field. Hard firm track to his liking too. Will drop back, question is how much of a start he gives the field here. Did get lost at last MV run under lights here behind the (2) a year ago, so is a query around the tight turning track. But if the pressure comes on a long way from home, he is going to be finishing off the best, and we are quite keen to back him at the 20-1 or so on offer. Great chance at odds. 7-ALAMOSA loved the drop in grade to handicaps last start for a tidy little win in the Toorak. Form before that in WFA races was consistent – thereabouts, racing on speed. Gear change and change in riding tactics last start definitely did the trick, and like the way he knuckled down, down the middle of the track. Probably settles a little closer to the speed here in smaller field from nice barrier. Definitely the 1600M races are his go, so another who is probably a little suspect at a high pressure 2000M . But in winning form, racing well, well drawn, WONDERFUL WORLD ran well in this race last year with similar form. Genuine chance as probably the best 1600M horse out of these, and only needs to beat a field of 1600M horses here. 8-C'EST LA GUERRE has had big wraps on him this spring being the NZ Derby winner, but has yet to really show anything. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and it’s getting to the business end of the spring, so is time for him to produce. Ran on OK 1st up in the Memsie, flopped here in the JRA Cup, but it was a dynamite leaders track, and then actually started to work home OK in the Yalumaba. Thought that was a glimpse that he was about to strike form – he looked like he was just about ready to unleash. Big plus is that he is a 2000M horse, has the 2000M runs this time in, and strong finisher who can sit and pounce if the pressure is on up front. Drawn towards the inside so probably needs to swing around field here. Think they had the option of going to the MV Cup or this race, so they must have thought they could nick out and pick up a Cox Plate along the way. Have to respect the heavy weight jockey too who deserves a big win like this. Probably does want some give in the ground to show best, but looks a pretty nice rough chance to us. Genuine rough chance. 9-PRINCESS COUP is an above average NZ WFA backmarker, who goes into this with a big plus – she has actually been set for this race – whereas most of the others here as just grabbing a passing opportunity. Winner over the distance last start, coming from well back, and form from that race proved to be strong in the Caulfield Cup last week. Last spring she proved herself at this level with Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon placings, and continued during the Autumn wining the St George, placing in the Australian Cup and BMW. She is a proven Group 1 WFA 2000M horse – and most of these are not. She does drop back though, so needs them to put the pressure on up front so she can run on – but that just about always happens in this race anyway. Interestingly – she only came over Weds night – has never raced here before – and isn’t going to work on the track before Sat – which looks very unusual. But reports are they worked her around MV during the Autumn and she handled it fine. Still – surely a refresher wouldn’t hurt? Just double check if she has worked at MV in the mean time. Think she is the best WFA 2000M horse in this field, race is really hers for the taking, she probably has the best finishing burst of all of these as well – she really can accelerate quickly, so not that worried about the dropping back here – she has a class WFA finish to unleash. So really just comes down to the ride and luck. Jockey hasn’t ridden over here for years, doesn’t have any other rides booked for the day either (which is strange – wouldn’t you want to get your eye in at an unfamiliar track?), and you really need impeccable timing in the Cox Plate. Still looms at the one to beat. Place: 4-THESEO is the Epsom winner down from Sydney. Convincing win that day on wet track, but was only carrying a light weight, and going into standard WFA weights here. Races forward, and probably sits outside the (2) here on the speed, but should put himself into the race and make his own luck. Little bit sceptical about the strength of the Sydney form. Does look like his best form is around 1600M – although he has won over 2200M, if the pressure goes on a long way out could see him kicking around the home turn and getting swamped. Will make his own luck though, fit and in winning form, so place chance. 11-ZARITA is a very consistent on pace staying mare, who had been going along OK in her 4YO season until last start flop in the Turnbull. Very consistent through Spring and Autumn 3YO filly staying events. Nice run 2nd up behind the HUSSLER (remember him?), solid run when caught wide all the way in the Underwood, then very disappointing in the Turnbull. Probably can forgive one bad run though. From memory the trainer didn’t pay up for her in the Caulfield Cup cause she was too closely weighted to WEEKEND HUSSLER ? Hmmm. OK. Has drawn barrier 1, probably going to get squashed as they drop back around the home turn, but to be honest – if you want something for the silly mega First Four throw her in – she might just plug on for 3rd or 4th – and suspect she will blow out to start outsider in this field. 4th W=$25.70 - First Four Special ! Sacking: 1-SIRMIONE is one we just cannot catch. Got a Mckinnon and Australian Cup on his mantelpiece, and suspect he does go much better at Flemington. Famous for mixing his form, so could pull out a run at any stage, not sure it is worth guessing when that is going to be though. 3 runs in have been OK – made some ground 1st up in Liston, suited by face pace and not far off them at MV 2nd up, but probably would’ve wanted to see him doing more last start in small Yalumba field. Should’ve been ready to show something that day and jockey did say he was a little disappointing. Yet to place in 4 runs at MV, and pretty sure he has been blocked for runs at on least 2 of those occasions. Drops back and needs pace on – probably will be OK here as pressure usually goes on early. Just have to wait till he shows some genuine form before getting on. No 2-MALDIVIAN has been going around, looming up, putting himself into the race, and just not finding anything. Dropped him quick smart after Underwood failure, loomed and stopped in both Turnbull and Caulfield Cup since then. Did have gear change of tongue tie last start – which didn’t work – and this week they are diving into the lucky dip and are going with blinkers – obviously they are just taking guessing stabs at trying to get him back into form. More interesting is that they have schooled him over hurdles – and that does often seem to work. With blinkers on, might find he really zips along to the lead here and runs them along – might as well go for broke. Tight MV track should suit too, so this might be more to his liking. Would say though – once they start to miss their spring targets – time to pack them off to the Sandown Classic !. Unbeaten this track and distance, and 4 times winners over the 2000M. The hurdles might do the trick – we have to leave him out cause there is obviously something wrong, something that is stopping him finishing his races, but going to be a little nervous if he zips along out in the front cause if he gets back on song he probably wins this. Risking 1st W=$10.10 6-RAHEEB was a solid run in the Toorak last start – although thought that he loomed up and failed to quite finish it off – but it had been wide most of the way. Hard to see him beating home the (7) from that race. Another who can go forward and drawn towards outside, so should sit up close to lead in space and put himself into the race. Again a high pressure 2000M is the question. Prefer to risk. 10-GALLANT TESS is another Sydney visitor who is probably best on tracks with some give. Again, not sure of the strength of the Sydney form, and this is another one who hasn’t proven herself past 1600M. Will get a nice run here sitting behind the speed, but has been beaten home by the (4) last 2 runs so probably prefer to be on that one – if any. Again – once the pressure goes on, not sure if she is going to be able to produce. Passing. 12-SAMANTHA MISS is the one we need to try and line up. Boom 3YO Sydney filly, and everyone is using MISS FINLAND as a measuring stick, who was unlucky in this race a few years ago. No weight as a 3YO filly and poor jockey has been wasting for weeks to ride at this weight, so don’t breath too hard on course – you might blow him over. Definitely knows how to win, and has worked here a few times to get accustomed. Has been settling back and wining easily in Syd. Has drawn barrier 2 today which could prove very tricky – she could get trapped back along the inside rails, though some suggestion that they might ride her more forward today. Has been winning easily – but has she been beating anything ? – she has won 4 starts in a row, all against 3YO fillies, all against pretty much the same field, and they didn’t show that much in the Thousand Guineas last week. So guess it really come down to what you think her right odds should be – a winning boom 3YO F, who has been beating the same field every week – who is now having her first start in open company, her first start at 2000M, her first start in Melbourne, her first start at MV. Even though she has the weight advantage and is meeting a weaker field than normal in this race, that is just far too many question marks for us in this race. Suspect the buckets of Sydney money will come, she will start favourite and more than ready to take her on at those odds. Happy to risk. 3rd W=$4.40 Summary: Actually looks a great betting race this year, with what looks like a pretty even, if below standard field, which might mean there is some money to be made. This is always a tough, high pressure race, they often go for home from the 600M onwards, you need to time your run to perfection, and you need to be swinging wide around the camber, not waiting for runs back in the pack. Interesting to note that much of this field has not been specifically set for this race, just having a crack at it cause it was up for grabs. Many of these runners aren’t proven 2000M horses either, and think you want a proven 2000M horse in what is a high pressure race. From memory, those coming off the Caulfield Cup normally go OK in this race – think the 2400M lead in run means they are fit and tough and ready for this task. Will be interesting if the NZ horse wins – between overseas Caulfield Cup last week, NZ Cox Plate and overseas dominated Melbourne Cup approaching it could be a total wipe out in the three majors for Australian horses. Think the pace here will be genuine, maybe even fast. 2-MALDIVIAN, 4-THESEO the likely leaders – but do wonder if with blinkers and schooling they might just go for broke and send 2-MALDIVIAN hurtling into the lead. 6-RAHEEB, 11-ZARITA and 10-GALLANT TESS will sitting next behind the leaders. Can just see these going for home early, kicking and looking a chance, but dying on their runs as they aren’t real 2000M horses, and the 2000M proven back markers running over the top of them towards the finish. So going away from the norm here and pushing 5-MASTER O'REILLY, who looks great value at the odds on offer, think he needed the extra run last week in the Caulfield Cup and will be suited if this turns into a tough run 2000M race. 9-PRINCESS COUP definitely the one to beat on form and on class, just needs the jockey to be on song, and 3-ZIPPING again the proven 2000M horse running on. Quite keen to bet with nice odds about the chances. One to risk: 12-SAMANTHA MISS 3rd W=$4.40 Roughie: 8-C'EST LA GUERRE RESULTS : 2-MALDIVIAN jumps and leads - and gets handed the Cox Plate for free. Good to see him back in form, and goes to show the danger of focusing on back markers who will always need luck, rather than on pacers who put themselves into the race. Lesson learnt. Really do wonder why jockeys do not show more initiative though instead of sticking to previous racing patterns, giving their horse no hope and just shrugging their shoulders afterwards. |
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