| MOONEE VALLEY: COX PLATE - 24th OCT 2009 |
Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE
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Betting Portfolio ($50):
Fine weather heading into the weekend, few showers forecast for Saturday, but probably not enough to affect the track which should be firming up from the DEAD(4) rating currently. Rail TRUE at MV generally produces even racing, if anything it actually favours those finishing on strongly coming off the camber on the home turn. Can be quite hard to win against the fence when the rail is TRUE. However, worth noting there are quite a few small fields and probably not that much speed in many of the races.
Often get lots of short priced favourites on Cox Plate day and probably not going to be a day of huge betting value. Amazingly they have only put 9 races on the program, normally there is 10 races to make sure every inch of the punting dollar is milked dry. And the main race is on at 4:30pm ? That’s kinda late, but seems to be odds on this is eventually going to be a night meeting so maybe this is a practice run. Betting strategy is to pick out a few solid bets for the day and have a solid whack at them, but most suspect most of the winners will be $4 and under.
RESULTS : Fine weather, track upgraded to a GOOD(3), races very evenly, some on pacers win but runners on seem to have their chances. Tricky Cox Plate provides a tricky result. We manage to get most of the money back in the Betting Portfolio, and the good things of the day get home early on the program, but the 2nd half was a battle.
BEST BET : Race 5: 3-EXTRA ZERO $10 WIN
Has been coming along nicely and should be ready to win today. Ran on and unlucky to not get the photo in the Bill Stutt here 2 starts back, then one of the few to make any ground in the Caulfield Guineas. Main rival the (1) has to be some sort of query at the distance. Probably sits just off these out wide and comes around them in the straight.
RESULTS : Has a tough run, caught wide, has to go early, is 1st beaten on the turn though.
BEST WIN : Race 6: 1-APACHE CAT $7 WIN 1st W=$2.80 = 7 x $2.80 = $19.60
QUINELLA : Race 6: 1-APACHE CAT, 5-LUCKY SECRET x $3
We have been keen to take on the 1-APACHE CAT first two starts this time in. Last couple of 1st up runs have been poor, but ran on very well 1st up this time in. Then never going to win 2nd up dropping back to the 1000M which he tends to find too short these days. Back to 1200M today and keen to get on. Obviously danger is the 5-LUCKY SECRET who is flying, loves MV and probably gets his own way in front here, so put a saver quinella on as well and hopefully collect twice.
RESULTS : Honest, reliable, 1-APACHE CAT, the white hooded avenger that is the crowd favourite. Or just APACHE to his friends. Fantastic ride by Oliver to get a gap on the inside and takes the gap like the good horse he is.
BEST WIN : Race 7: 14-MISS DARCEY, 1-ISTA KAREEM, x $5 WIN
MV Cup is always a good betting race and think these two stand out. The (14) is fitter for the 3 runs in and should have a lot of improvement to come with the run over the 2500M last start. Loomed up that day and looked like she was going to grab the winner – thanks goodness she didn’t cause we were on it. No weight and ready to win. The (1) has been running on very well in every run this time in, normally strikes form once he gets to these trips and is very consistent when does. Happy to back both at around $7.
RESULTS : The (14) is posted very wide the whole way, forget she went around, the (1) never looks likely but probably did not appreciate the firm track.
BEST EACH WAY : Race 4: 11-SOUND OF NATURE $5 EW 2nd W=$17.90, P=$4.70 = 4.70 x 5 = $23.50
One of the few value runners we can spot for the day. Lightly raced import who is up in class but coming along OK. Last start at Caulf got caught up on a fast speed, hit the lead and looked the winner but just got grabbed on the line. Class is the test, but nice barrier and is going to get perfect on speed sit here in a small field so will probably present on the home turn. Each way.
RESULTS : Finds one of the others way too good, but runs well at nice each way odds.
QUINELLA : Race 3: 3-AVENUE, 5-LA BELLA ENCOSTA x $5 1st 3-AVENUE W=$1.60
This race looks a dead set gimme for 3-AVENUE who is flying at the moment. Obviously not going to go backing horses at $1.50, but have something on the quinella with the (5). 3 starts for 3 seconds, took a while to get out for a clear run last start and finished on OK – and that was the ride that ended the Williams/Hayes partnership. Should sit out wide behind the leader and looks obvious 2nd pick in this race.
RESULTS : The sure thing of the day gets home - but the horse that ran 2nd 4-GOVERNANCE probably should have won. Those of you who go backing $1.60 shots were damm lucky. Of course, that was our 3rd pick, but we didn't take that quinella.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 4-SPACECRAFT at around $5 2nd W=$11.80
Has won his last two starts, but only fell over the line last start when had a perfect run. Should get a pretty good run on the speed here, but meets the (6) 1.5 kgs worse off from last start and has to carry the same weight as the (1),(2),(3) who have been going much better than him. Will look likely on the home turn, but get swamped.
RESULTS : Phew lucky get out there. The higher profile horses flop, this one kicks and looks home, but does get swamped on the line. Lucky as starts more than double the odds we expected.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUADRELLA : Races 6,7,8,9 : 1,5 / 1,14 / 9,10,11,14 / 2,4,6,19 x $5 = 7.8% 1st 1-APACHE CAT W=$2.80 / - / 1st 14-SO YOU THINK W=$9.50 / 1st 2-LADY LYNETTE W=$6.20
Not much value around today, not sure there is even going to be much value in the quadrella. 1st leg looks a race in two (1) and (5), like the (1) and (14) in the MV Cup which might add some value, hope for a result in the Cox Plate and the (2),(4),(6),(19) should provide value in a very even last race.
RESULTS : Actually some value when we get the 3 easy legs - miss the outsider in the 2nd leg though. OK effort for $5.
SPENT : $50
RETURN : $43.10
NET : $-6.90
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The Tips:
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. CAN SLEEP IN.
Race 2: 4-SUBLIMITY, 5-ZALEBA, 6-ZIP PLEASURE
Race 3: 3-AVENUE, 5-LA BELLA ENCOSTA, 4-GOVERNANCE
Race 4: 11-SOUND OF NATURE, 3-RAFFAELLO, 9-LUCKY THUNDER
Race 5: 3-EXTRA ZERO, 1-CARRARA, 2-VIKING LEGEND
Race 6: 1-APACHE CAT, 5-LUCKY SECRET, 3-DUPORTH
Race 7: 14-MISS DARCEY, 1-ISTA KAREEM, 4-HISSING SID
Race 8: 11-HEART OF DREAMS, 10-WHOBEGOTYOU, 9-SPEED GIFTED
Race 9: 19-BUBBLE BELOW (emerg), 4-PRIMA NOVA, 6-MISS PAGEANTRY, 2-LADY LYNETTE
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RACE 2: RESULTS
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Tips:
4-SUBLIMITY 1st W=$3.60
5-ZALEBA
6-ZIP PLEASURE
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RACE 3: RESULTS
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Tips:
3-AVENUE 1st W=$1.60
5-LA BELLA ENCOSTA
4-GOVERNANCE 2nd W=$7.50 **** nice value place getter ***
Quinella : $13.60
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RACE 4: RESULTS
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Tips:
11-SOUND OF NATURE 2nd W=$17.90, P=$4.70 *** best each way ***
3-RAFFAELLO
9-LUCKY THUNDER
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RACE 5: RESULTS
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Tips:
3-EXTRA ZERO
1-CARRARA
2-VIKING LEGEND3rd W=$5.20
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RACE 6: RESULTS
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Tips:
1-APACHE CAT 1st W=$2.80 *** best win ***
5-LUCKY SECRET
3-DUPORTH
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RACE 7: RESULTS
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Tips:
14-MISS DARCEY
1-ISTA KAREEM
4-HISSING SID
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RACE 8: RESULTS
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Tips:
11-HEART OF DREAMS
10-WHOBEGOTYOU
9-SPEED GIFTED
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RACE 9: RESULTS
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Tips:
4-PRIMA NOVA
6-MISS PAGEANTRY
2-LADY LYNETTE 1st W=$6.20
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RACE 8: COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1 WFA
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Tips:
11-HEART OF DREAMS
10-WHOBEGOTYOU
9-SPEED GIFTED
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Others: 14
Pace: SOLID
Leaders : 3-VISION AND POWER, 7-SIR SLICK, 13-MANHATTAN RAIN (wide)
Handy : 5-SCENIC SHOT, 8-ROAD TO ROCK, 9-SPEED GIFTED, 11-HEART OF DREAMS, 12-ROCK KINGDOM
Back : 1-EL SEGUNDO, 2-ZIPPING, 4-NOM DU JEU, 6-BLACK PIRANHA, 10-WHOBEGOTYOU
Chances:
9-SPEED GIFTED is one of the boom horses of the spring. SCR from Caulfield Cup last week when trainer didn’t want another hard 2400M run going into the Melbourne Cup. Has shown enormous potential in 4 starts in Melb. Given a warm up run only over winter and absolutely slaughtered a handy field. Repeated the dose 1st up at Flem, then solid run at Caulfield when drew an outside barrier, had to go very wide and wasn’t far off the finish. Taken up to Sydney for the Metro absolutely and totally thrashed them and don’t those odds look great in hindsight. Keeps surprising trainer as he steps up and up. Hasn’t been carrying much weight in those runs though and up to WFA today. And you probably wouldn’t back those who beat him home at Caulfield in this race. But don’t think you should underestimate a form horse on the up. Like that he has drawn outside barrier, sitting wide, just off the speed and out of trouble should suit and he does have a nice turn of foot so suspect he will be making a pretty threatening run coming up to the home turn. Backing one off a 2400 staying trip in a pressure 2000M race probably isn’t a bad idea either. Prob more of a stayer, probably better off in handicaps, but this field doesn’t seem strong at all and think he is right in this. Genuine chance.
10-WHOBEGOTYOU has probably been favourite for this race since he easily won the AAMI Vase on this day last year, and could’ve run in the 2008 Cox Plate instead if trainer had wanted. Racing has lacked a genuine stand out WFA star for a few years now and he is probably the closest thing we have – but will he step up and take the crown ? Pretty hard to fault form this time in – 22121 definitely going the best out of any in this field. Concern with him has always been because he drops well back he often needs luck or strikes trouble or runs on too late so doesn’t win as many as he should. Ran on well in first two runs this time in, then really had everything set up for him in the Feehan and came out and produced. Was ridden closer to the speed that day and really like the way he let down and extended around the home turn. In Underwood he came wide, but loomed up and thought he would’ve gone past them and put paid to them, but only just ground away to line. Proactive ride by jockey in small field won the race for him last start. Won 4 from 4 here, placed 15 from 18 means he is probably the best horse in Australia at the moment. Entitled to be favourite and does look the one to beat. Would just like to see him ridden around midfield, and not drop well back here – if he drops back you could see him striking trouble or one in front of him kicking and gaining a gap. Drawn out a little suits so can sit wide and come around them. Is the one to beat, just make sure he doesn’t start too short though – he does tend to start very short on the tote and anything under around $3.00 is poor value. One to beat.
11-HEART OF DREAMS has been a rapid improver this time in and has managed to go on to this race when most (including his trainer) thought he would be heading back to the feature miles. Has worked home well at every start this time in and is keeping his form. Beat the (10) in the Underwood when there wasn’t much between them, then pretty poor ride in the Yalumba saw him giving his main rival 3L on the home turn when it should have been the other way around. He still managed to finish on pretty well to cut the margin down to only be ¾ L, and they weren’t really running on that day. Query with him has always been the 2000M, but think he has shown last 2 starts he should run this trip out. Drawn a nice inside barrier and would be good to see him sitting just behind the speed and one out to get the first crack at them around the home turn. Barrier is the key here – if he gets trapped on the rail think he is going to struggle to get out. Think he is right in this on last two runs. Really comes down to a question of value between the (10) and this one – the $7.50 vs $2.50 earlier in the week was just plain crazy ! (and hope you got on). Around $5 is his right price and likely to be continued to be backed coming into this race as he does seem the obvious danger. Might still start value on the tote though. Think we need the jockey to be proactive, and have him making his run first around the home turn and kick clear and see if the (10) can come out and run him down or not. Genuine danger
14-SO YOU THINK is a staying 3YO with no weight who is showing a lot of promise. Always a lot of talk about 3YOs going into this race, and some pretty smart in form 3YOs haven’t been good enough to win this. However, think the more staying type 3YOs can win this race. Only had the 4 starts. Impressive win 2nd up over 1800M and then trainer made unusual decision to run him in the Guineas rather than the Spring Champion which looked his for the taking. Finished on by far the best of the others in the Caulfield Guineas, on a track that was suiting on pacers, and he was a clear last around the home turn and finished on really well. Jockey actually said he put his head down and went bang, and the horse really let down and he thought he had the race won – looked up again and he still hadn’t made any ground on the leader !. You would think back to the 2000M here would suit. Probably drops out a long last and is going to have the last crack at them. Did wobble badly around the home turn here in trackwork during the week. Still think he is a genuine chance in this, especially as it is not the strongest field going around. Main problem is the Bart factor, probably starts way under the odds on the tote, so make sure you bet with the bookies and get the proper odds. Genuine chance. 1st W=$9.50
Place:
1-EL SEGUNDO has started in this race twice for a win in 2007 and a 2nd in 2006, missing last spring through injury. Had the 4 runs in and did seem he had came back as good as ever when he whooshed home 1st up at Flem with a whopping weight. Then bit flat 2nd up, got far too far back 3rd up and was making good ground late, and very disappointing last start at Flem when tailed out and did nothing. His Flem form has never been the best though – except down the straight in sprints, and he did have a rather genuine excuse that he got apparently whacked in the eye with a horse shoe or stubby or something last start. Worth noting that he put in a flat run in the Turnbull in 2007 and won this race the start after. Just a bit hard to know what to do with him as can’t be quite sure how he is going ? Probably going to drop out here. This field isn’t the strongest and on his best would challenge these. Rough chance only, maybe have a few saver dollars on if he gets out to silly odds. 4th W=$14.00
4-NOM DU JEU should be fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to show something. Ran a solid 2nd in the Caulfield Cup last year when finished on really strongly. First two runs this time in were good, only got going quite late in the Craven and was coming on strongly. Not sure what to make of last run at Caulfield, he settled much handier then usual and he did actually sneak up on the rails about 200M out but was out sprinted to the line. Does probably prefer it wet – but his best run was in the Caulfield Cup on a dry track. Place 4 from 6 over 2000M. Probably drops back and finishes on, but suspect he might go a lot better than people expect – ridden quietly with no expectation sitting out the back of the field and letting all the others go first. Hard to see him winning, think he is the value place bet though for big trifectas and first fours.
8-ROAD TO ROCK still seems to be improving and upset winner at long odds in the George Main in Syd before finishing on pretty well in the Epsom. Did go OK down here over Melbourne Autumn when was actually ridden on pace, so might settle forward here from inside barrier. If he does one big problem he is going to have is getting around the (7) if it crosses and leads and starts going backwards around the 600M mark. Does go best with a long clear run at them – doesn’t seem to have a great burst of speed, and just wonder how that is going to work around MV, drawn barrier 1, trying to get out into the clear in a pressure race. Seems to be going OK though so rough place chance.
12-ROCK KINGDOM is a Sydney miler who has been going along OK, but many of these have tried and failed in this race over the years. Tough on pace win in Epsom on bog track, then was wide all the way from outside barrier in the Toorak and was still coming at the end of the race. That was a pretty solid effort considering rails seemed to be the better ground that day. Good win strike rate and placed 12 of 15 and probably still on the improve. Placed in the Rosehill Guineas over this distance as a 3YO. Big plus is that he will race on pace and make his own luck – drawn middle barrier so he is going to get great run in this race – will sit on speed outside horses and will put himself into the race on home turn. Suspect he will find one better though, but definite place chance.
Sacking:
2-ZIPPING is vastly under rated and has put in some huge performances, sizzling run to win the Sandown Classic last year. Ran 2nd in this race last year and jockey thought he should have won if the leader hadn’t stole the race with slow tempo. Had the 2 runs back, should just about be ready to do something. Ran on OK last start in the Turnbull. Has to be said though his run in the Turnbull last year leading into this race was much better. Query here is the barrier, does drop back and in a pressure race doubt anyone is going to give him a easy gap to come into the race. Not convinced he is going as well as previous years and prefer to risk. 3rd W=$11.00
3-VISION AND POWER is a Syd visitor who had a purple patch of form during the Autumn, but hasn’t quite gone on with it during the Spring. 4 runs in Sydney were just OK, then didn’t go too badly down here in the Yalumba when was sticking on OK. Plus with this one is that he can take up the running and there doesn’t seem to be much speed here. As least he will put himself into the race and have every chance. Was comfortably beaten home by the (10) and the (11) last start and meets them under the same conditions here. Does seem to prefer it wet and probably needs a genuine wet track to be any chance in this. No
5-SCENIC SHOT is an honest on pace stayer who managed to pull out another Turnbull placing last start to match his 2007 Turnbull 2nd at 100-1. Should be right at peak now with the 3 runs in and made rapid improvement last start when he stuck on well on pace in a field that was probably about the same strength as this one. Never been to MV before so might get lost on the Tullamarine and end up at the airport. Has rather ambitiously been set for this race all along. Has had quite a few cracks at these feature WFA races in Melbourne and never quite measured up – expect for those two Turnbull runs. Might be better off at Flem? Rolling on pacer though who should sit handy here and make his own luck, just find it hard to imagine him winning a Cox Plate. Passing.
6-BLACK PIRANHA is an ultra consistent Sydney visitor who had managed a first four placing in his last 16 runs until last start at Caulfield. Solid run in the Toorak when did have a little bit of trouble getting clear, did make good ground and the track was favouring on pacers – so does look a pretty good run. Probably would’ve won the Crystal Mile today in a canter. Only try over the 2000M has been a 2nd in the Port Macquarie Cup – traditionally not a good guide to this race ! Never been to MV before. Probably drops back here. He will probably run on OK – would’ve loved to get on him over a 1600M race off last run, but these 1600M Syd horses have had many, many cracks at this race over the last couple of years and just don’t seem to be the right type of horse to win this race. Risking.
7-SIR SLICK is dreaming. Someone tell him he is dreaming. Very progressive of the MV racing club to allow pace makers to run in this race. Imagine wining a Cox Plate at your ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTH START !. Definitely one on the up !?? Gone along OK in 4 runs over in NZ, did manage some OK on pace runs over the QLD winter. Struggled to beat a runner home in 9 starts here last spring. Probably sets the pace here. Absolutely no hope what so ever. SCR
13-MANHATTAN RAIN is still to live up to the stable expectations who have declared him the best and prettiest 3YO in all the kingdom. Did have set back when came down to Melb and did not trial well so missed a run. Both runs in have been OK, settled on speed and stuck on OK. Should be much, much fitter for the 2 runs in too. Loomed up in the run home last start but didn’t finish it off – but should have a lot of improvement from that run. Just felt he had every chance last start to at least challenge – and didn’t . Yet to miss a place – today seems like as good a day as any. 3YOs with no weight can win this race and do need to be wary of them, but think it’s a race for the staying 3YO’s – not the miler 3YOs. Drawn wide here, best ridden forward and is definitely going to get caught quite wide in a pressure race. Suspect he will be the first beaten. Keen to risk. 2nd W=$14.00
Summary: Always a high pressure race, and often lots of hard luck stores when horses struggle to get clear runs. They often tend to wind up too far from home in this and the winner is usually the one biding his time and being patient before making their run. Because this is a high pressure 2000M race really prefer to avoid those who are traditionally milers – think they get found out in this race. Not the strongest field going around this year, but don’t think there are many winning chances.
Worth noting a few things. Last 5 winners have been $15, $2, $19,$7 and $11 so favourites have been having a rough trot. A 4YO C+G has not won this race since Saintly in 1996 which is a very long time, and it has actually been the older horses that have been winning this race over the last 10 years.
Pace should actually be OK here, there is no tear away leader, but 7-SIR SLICK should work and cross to the lead with 3-VISION AND POWER, 12-ROCK KINGDOM , 13-MANHATTAN RAIN (wide) behind him. 5-SCENIC SHOT, 8-ROAD TO ROCK, 9-SPEED GIFTED, 11-HEART OF DREAMS should be the next bunch, think it is the one sitting two back, one out that is going to be first to make it’s run and kick clear into the straight that is the one to wary of in this. We are hoping that runner is 11-HEART OF DREAMS, who might kick clear in the straight and then would be up to the back markers to get clear and run him down. Just a bit nervous about the barrier and would love to see him sitting outside a horse when they settle and not on the inside. Beat home the favourite the (10), 2 starts ago and then not beaten far when was seriously poor ride by the jockey in the Yalumba. To win he needs to be 2-3 L ahead of the (10) coming to the home turn today and pinch a break. Value at anything over $5. 10-WHOBEGOTYOU is obviously the one to beat, probably want around $3 to consider having a bet, you would like to see it ridden around midfield instead of just dropping out. Probably starts short on the tote, does seem to get getting the wobbles in betting though as the $2.50 at the start of the week was just poor value. We are really starting to warm to 9-SPEED GIFTED, can see him sitting out wide just off the speed, does have a nice turn of foot and dropping back from 2400M to a pressure 2000M looks a big plus. Not sure how he goes in tougher company at WFA today, but he is going along very well. Best roughie is 14-SO YOU THINK, and it’s not just a Bart thing, just wary of staying 3YOs in this race, run last start was actually pretty good and if they go hard and set it up for something running on could easily come over the top of them. Still scratching head over these 4, 9-SPEED GIFTED is starting to look a rather appealing each way bet though.
One to risk: 13-MANHATTAN RAIN 2nd W=$14.00
Roughie: 14-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$9.50
The Key: Getting a clear run.
RESULTS : Tricky Cox Plate and a surprise result - well the winner wasn't that big of a surprise, but leading all the way in tear along dominant Cox Plate win definitely was. Race changed complexion on the morning of the race when the only leader 7-SIR SLICK was scratched. The two 3YOs bowl along in front and the rest of the motley crew never look likely - and it's not like they were dawdling, they were running along in SUNLINE tear away leader fashion. Huge win. 11-HEART OF DREAMS and 10-WHOBEGOTYOU just don't seem to run strong 2000M, as many of their doubters had said in the lead up.
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